Simon Donner
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simondonner.bsky.social
Simon Donner
@simondonner.bsky.social

Climate scientist, prof at UBC, writer, speaker, aquatic mammal, dragger of sand into the house.

Environmental science 58%
Geography 17%
Pinned
If you're looking for some positivity... my TED talk was about the overcoming doubts and embracing solutions to climate change. The final piece of advice comes from a friend in Kiribati.
youtu.be/CZ_MPbjA78I?...
Why our imaginations are the key to solving climate change | Dr. Simon Donner | TEDxSurrey
YouTube video by TEDx Talks
youtu.be

My calculation is based on sales from 3rd quarter of 2025, which is after the big decline (from letting the rebates expire). So, yes, sales would still be below previous levels of nothing else changes.

It's a pretty small dent in sales, not a EV strategy on its own... my math involved some very generous assumptions (Chinese EVs replace gas vehicle sales, the 49,000 is per year, etc).

How would the new deal to cut tariffs on up to 49,000 Chinese EVs affect uptake? By my math, in the maximum case, battery EVs would move from 5.5% of sales to 8.1% of sales. This is potentially a *small* start of a much-needed overhaul of EV strategy in Canada. What comes next matters the most.

Sure, but breaking records every year creates a trend...

I say "steady" because there is less year-to-year natural variability in total ocean heat content than in air temperatures. The figure is from a new paper in Advances in Atmospheric Sciences: link.springer.com/article/10.1...
Client Challenge
link.springer.com

Because the ocean absorbs >90% of the heat trapped in the climate system due to human enhancement of the greenhouse effect, the best and most steady measure of global warming is the change in ocean heat content.

It continues to break records every year:

This is from the HadCRUT5 (UK dataset). Other datasets have similar orders. Before 1850, global average temperature is estimated via proxies, rather than direct measurements, and annual values have greater uncertainty.

Warmest years, in order, since records began in 1800s. Seeing a pattern here...
2024
2023
2025
2016
2020
2019
2017
2015
2022
2021
2018
2010
2014
2013
2005
2009
2007
1998
2012
2006
2002
2003
2011
2001

I recommend reading the article. The issue isn't that the world won't need oil, but that the market for Canadian heavy oil is predicted to decline sharply.

This article speaks some honest and blunt about the future of heavy oil in an electrifying world. Canadians are not being told this nearly enough. calgaryherald.com/opinion/colu...
Opinion: Alberta’s oil economy has 10 years before electric takes over. It’s time to invest in the future.
Alberta’s oil economy has 10 years before electric takes over. It’s time to invest in the future.
calgaryherald.com

"The future economy is electric" - incisive article on why Canada needs to quickly pivot its focus from industries of the past to the industries of tomorrow vancouversun.com/opinion/op-e...
Opinion: A 'Build Canada' plan for the 21st (not 20th) century
Opinion: As a clean energy powerhouse thanks to renewable energy and critical minerals, we could create hundreds of thousands of jobs
vancouversun.com

Been wondering about this since Trump returned to office. Too many years of seeing bad map projections or the board game Risk, in which Greenland is needed to defend the Americas.

A moment of calm
The Trump Administration's announced withdraw from the IPCC is disappointing, but not surprising. US scientists will continue to play key roles in the @ipcc.bsky.social. A statement from the US Academic Alliance for the IPCC:

If the US "withdraws" from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, as stated in the new executive order, what happens to appointed US authors working on the next set of reports? Anyone know?
A truly gonzo Executive Order from the Trump Administration removes US from not just the UN Framework Convention on Climate change, but also the IPCC (!), the IUCN, the IPBES (the IPCC of biodiversity), and all sorts of other organizations. www.whitehouse.gov/presidential...
Withdrawing the United States from International Organizations, Conventions, and Treaties that Are Contrary to the Interests of the United States
MEMORANDUM FOR THE HEADS OF EXECUTIVE DEPARTMENTS AND AGENCIES By the authority vested in me as President by the Constitution and the laws of the United
www.whitehouse.gov

Seven whole minutes, who has the time

Thanks Janet, I appreciate your comments.

Reposted by Simon D. Donner

CPAC TV @cpac.ca · Dec 9
"I couldn't look at myself in the mirror", says climate scientist @simondonner.bsky.social, who is one of the two climate advisors that quit the federal government's Net-Zero Advisory Body.

Full interview: youtu.be/x1JYcA9srH4?...
I spoke about the decision to resign from chairing the Net-Zero Advisory Body with As it Happens (9:20 mark of the show). This is the best description of what transpired, including how the Alberta-Canada MOU was cynical, and why I felt I had no choice but to resign.
www.cbc.ca/listen/live-...
As It Happens with Nil Köksal, Chris Howden | Live Radio | CBC Listen
News that’s not afraid of fun. Meet people at the centre of the day’s most hard-hitting, hilarious and heartbreaking stories — powerful leaders, proud eccentrics and ordinary people in extraordinary c...
www.cbc.ca

Thanks Jackie. It was, at times, but the system was poorly designed and times have changed.

Thank Glen, nice of you to say.

Thanks Joe, that's very kind of you to say. It's been a hard process, and I hoped it wouldn't come to this. But I feel I was left with no other choice.

Thanks Kathy, the respect means a lot coming from you.
Personal update -- I resigned from my role at Co-Chair of Canada's Net-Zero Advisory Body. The job had been a true honour and privilege, one of the highlights of my professional life. If you're interested in more of an explanation, see my Linked-In page.

Yes, in that international emissions accounting is based on what is emitting within the borders. Oil and gas emissions = emissions from producing, refining, transporting, NOT the eventual combustion, unless that happens in the country (and then is reporting under transportation).

The Pathways carbon capture project can work. The issue is the numbers. Trading Pathways for the proposed new pipeline likely leads to a net INcrease in emissions, even when it is fully operational. More to come.
Thanks so much, Simon! Also, the carbon capture initiative seems like a complete waste of money. It’s a failed technology, right?

Reposted by Simon D. Donner

Thanks so much, Simon! Also, the carbon capture initiative seems like a complete waste of money. It’s a failed technology, right?

I started writing "The actual math doesn't work", stopped, shivered, and checked if I'd written that before...

It is also giving me deja vu. I'm working on a more detailed analysis of the MOU, and was reminded of writing this for a similar analysis nine years ago: