Simon D. Donner | Lightnews

Simon Donner

@simondonner.bsky.social

15K followers 720 following 750 posts

Climate scientist, prof at UBC, writer, speaker, aquatic mammal, dragger of sand into the house.

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Environmental science 58%

Geography 17%

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Simon Donner @simondonner.bsky.social · Dec 16

If you're looking for some positivity... my TED talk was about the overcoming doubts and embracing solutions to climate change. The final piece of advice comes from a friend in Kiribati.
youtu.be/CZ_MPbjA78I?...

Why our imaginations are the key to solving climate change | Dr. Simon Donner | TEDxSurrey

YouTube video by TEDx Talks

youtu.be

Simon Donner @simondonner.bsky.social · 4d

My calculation is based on sales from 3rd quarter of 2025, which is after the big decline (from letting the rebates expire). So, yes, sales would still be below previous levels of nothing else changes.

Simon Donner @simondonner.bsky.social · 5d

It's a pretty small dent in sales, not a EV strategy on its own... my math involved some very generous assumptions (Chinese EVs replace gas vehicle sales, the 49,000 is per year, etc).

Simon Donner @simondonner.bsky.social · 5d

How would the new deal to cut tariffs on up to 49,000 Chinese EVs affect uptake? By my math, in the maximum case, battery EVs would move from 5.5% of sales to 8.1% of sales. This is potentially a *small* start of a much-needed overhaul of EV strategy in Canada. What comes next matters the most.

Simon Donner @simondonner.bsky.social · 6d

Sure, but breaking records every year creates a trend...

Simon Donner @simondonner.bsky.social · 7d

I say "steady" because there is less year-to-year natural variability in total ocean heat content than in air temperatures. The figure is from a new paper in Advances in Atmospheric Sciences: link.springer.com/article/10.1...

Client Challenge

link.springer.com

Simon Donner @simondonner.bsky.social · 7d

Because the ocean absorbs >90% of the heat trapped in the climate system due to human enhancement of the greenhouse effect, the best and most steady measure of global warming is the change in ocean heat content.

It continues to break records every year:

Simon Donner @simondonner.bsky.social · 7d

This is from the HadCRUT5 (UK dataset). Other datasets have similar orders. Before 1850, global average temperature is estimated via proxies, rather than direct measurements, and annual values have greater uncertainty.

Simon Donner @simondonner.bsky.social · 7d

Warmest years, in order, since records began in 1800s. Seeing a pattern here...
2024
2023
2025
2016
2020
2019
2017
2015
2022
2021
2018
2010
2014
2013
2005
2009
2007
1998
2012
2006
2002
2003
2011
2001

Simon Donner @simondonner.bsky.social · 8d

I recommend reading the article. The issue isn't that the world won't need oil, but that the market for Canadian heavy oil is predicted to decline sharply.

Simon Donner @simondonner.bsky.social · 8d

This article speaks some honest and blunt about the future of heavy oil in an electrifying world. Canadians are not being told this nearly enough. calgaryherald.com/opinion/colu...

Opinion: Alberta’s oil economy has 10 years before electric takes over. It’s time to invest in the future.

Alberta’s oil economy has 10 years before electric takes over. It’s time to invest in the future.

calgaryherald.com

Simon Donner @simondonner.bsky.social · 8d

"The future economy is electric" - incisive article on why Canada needs to quickly pivot its focus from industries of the past to the industries of tomorrow vancouversun.com/opinion/op-e...

Opinion: A 'Build Canada' plan for the 21st (not 20th) century

Opinion: As a clean energy powerhouse thanks to renewable energy and critical minerals, we could create hundreds of thousands of jobs

vancouversun.com

Simon Donner @simondonner.bsky.social · 10d

Been wondering about this since Trump returned to office. Too many years of seeing bad map projections or the board game Risk, in which Greenland is needed to defend the Americas.

Simon Donner @simondonner.bsky.social · 12d

A moment of calm

Reposted by Brian J. Enquist, Peter Thorne, Wim Thiery , and 1 more Brian J. Enquist, Peter Thorne, Wim Thiery, Simon D. Donner

Bob Kopp @bobkopp.net · 13d

The Trump Administration's announced withdraw from the IPCC is disappointing, but not surprising. US scientists will continue to play key roles in the @ipcc.bsky.social. A statement from the US Academic Alliance for the IPCC:

The US Academic Alliance for the IPCC (USAA-IPCC) was formed in March 2025 in part to prepare for this possibility and to ensure that US scientists remain able to engage in IPCC work regardless of the status and role of the US government. With the support of the USAA-IPCC, more than 70 US citizens and US-based experts who are currently serving the IPCC as coordinating lead authors, lead authors, review editors and committee members will continue to play these roles.

“US climate scientists have made incredible contributions to understanding our planet’s life support systems and the impacts and risks of climate change. Their role as key players in IPCC reports have helped the US maintain our preeminent position in science and technology, and this global scientific cooperation will continue despite this unfortunate decision,” said Dr. Pamela McElwee, Professor of Human Ecology at Rutgers University, who serves as chair of the steering committee of the Alliance.

“There is a reason we call our community the global scientific enterprise. We cannot grow, innovate, or advance unless we are linked together sharing, analyzing, and deliberating on vital climate data through critical international organizations like the IPCC. In the wake of this devastating move, AGU pledges to do all it can to bridge global partnership, research, and dialogue,” said Dr. Brandon Jones, President of the American Geophysical Union (AGU), which hosts the Alliance.

The Trump Administration began disengaging from IPCC prior to yesterday’s formal announcement. Since February of 2025, the US State Department has not nominated experts for involvement in IPCC work, nor supported travel to IPCC meetings for selected authors, a role they have played in all prior administrations. The US government also did not participate in either of the IPCC business sessions in 2025, the first time the US has not been in attendance since the IPCC’s founding in 1988.

As a result, the USAA-IPCC has assumed a key leadership role in nominating US scientists for consideration as authors for IPCC reports, including for the Seventh Assessment Report (nominating 282 authors in April 2025) and the Methodology Report on Carbon Dioxide Removal Technologies, Carbon Capture, Utilization and Storage (nominating 33 authors in December 2025), as well as for roles on the IPCC Task Group on Data Support and for participation in several expert workshops. AGU and the USAA-IPCC have also raised funds to support travel for US scientists and technical experts selected by IPCC to attend author meetings and workshops.

Since the founding of the IPCC over four decades ago, US scientists and other experts have made critical contributions, leading formal processes as Working Group co-chairs as well as filling vitally important author and reviewer roles. IPCC findings have shaped science-based policy at all levels—from global climate agreements to local resilience plans—and strengthen the ability of policy communities to make informed decisions. Ensuring US scientists remain fully engaged in the IPCC and the global climate science community will lead to important new research opportunities and international collaborations that benefit the US in substantial ways. The USAA-IPCC looks forward to continuing our support of US climate experts, climate science research, and the IPCC.

—--

The USAA-IPCC (https://www.usaa-ipcc.org/) is composed of all the US academic institutions that have observer status with the IPCC – Colby College, College of the Atlantic, Dickinson College, Emory University, Indiana University, Princeton University, Rutgers University, Washington University in St. Louis, University of California San Diego, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, and Yale University – together with the American Geophysical Union (AGU), which hosts the Alliance.

Simon Donner @simondonner.bsky.social · 13d

If the US "withdraws" from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, as stated in the new executive order, what happens to appointed US authors working on the next set of reports? Anyone know?

Reposted by Sebastian Karcher, Clark Gray

Simon Donner @simondonner.bsky.social · 13d

A truly gonzo Executive Order from the Trump Administration removes US from not just the UN Framework Convention on Climate change, but also the IPCC (!), the IUCN, the IPBES (the IPCC of biodiversity), and all sorts of other organizations. www.whitehouse.gov/presidential...

Withdrawing the United States from International Organizations, Conventions, and Treaties that Are Contrary to the Interests of the United States

MEMORANDUM FOR THE HEADS OF EXECUTIVE DEPARTMENTS AND AGENCIES By the authority vested in me as President by the Constitution and the laws of the United

www.whitehouse.gov

Simon Donner @simondonner.bsky.social · Dec 12

Seven whole minutes, who has the time

Simon Donner @simondonner.bsky.social · Dec 9

Thanks Janet, I appreciate your comments.

Reposted by Simon D. Donner

CPAC TV @cpac.ca · Dec 9

"I couldn't look at myself in the mirror", says climate scientist @simondonner.bsky.social, who is one of the two climate advisors that quit the federal government's Net-Zero Advisory Body.

Full interview: youtu.be/x1JYcA9srH4?...

Reposted by Valerie M. Delmotte, Wolfgang Crämer

Simon Donner @simondonner.bsky.social · Dec 8

I spoke about the decision to resign from chairing the Net-Zero Advisory Body with As it Happens (9:20 mark of the show). This is the best description of what transpired, including how the Alberta-Canada MOU was cynical, and why I felt I had no choice but to resign.
www.cbc.ca/listen/live-...

As It Happens with Nil Köksal, Chris Howden | Live Radio | CBC Listen

News that’s not afraid of fun. Meet people at the centre of the day’s most hard-hitting, hilarious and heartbreaking stories — powerful leaders, proud eccentrics and ordinary people in extraordinary c...

www.cbc.ca

Simon Donner @simondonner.bsky.social · Dec 5

Thanks Jackie. It was, at times, but the system was poorly designed and times have changed.

Simon Donner @simondonner.bsky.social · Dec 5

Thank Glen, nice of you to say.

Simon Donner @simondonner.bsky.social · Dec 4

Thanks Joe, that's very kind of you to say. It's been a hard process, and I hoped it wouldn't come to this. But I feel I was left with no other choice.

Simon Donner @simondonner.bsky.social · Dec 4

Thanks Kathy, the respect means a lot coming from you.

Reposted by Peter Thorne, Hisham Zerriffi

Simon Donner @simondonner.bsky.social · Dec 4

Personal update -- I resigned from my role at Co-Chair of Canada's Net-Zero Advisory Body. The job had been a true honour and privilege, one of the highlights of my professional life. If you're interested in more of an explanation, see my Linked-In page.

Simon Donner @simondonner.bsky.social · Nov 30

Yes, in that international emissions accounting is based on what is emitting within the borders. Oil and gas emissions = emissions from producing, refining, transporting, NOT the eventual combustion, unless that happens in the country (and then is reporting under transportation).

Simon Donner @simondonner.bsky.social · Nov 30

The Pathways carbon capture project can work. The issue is the numbers. Trading Pathways for the proposed new pipeline likely leads to a net INcrease in emissions, even when it is fully operational. More to come.

char0853.bsky.social @char0853.bsky.social · Nov 30

Thanks so much, Simon! Also, the carbon capture initiative seems like a complete waste of money. It’s a failed technology, right?

Reposted by Simon D. Donner

char0853.bsky.social @char0853.bsky.social · Nov 30

Thanks so much, Simon! Also, the carbon capture initiative seems like a complete waste of money. It’s a failed technology, right?

Simon Donner @simondonner.bsky.social · Nov 28

I started writing "The actual math doesn't work", stopped, shivered, and checked if I'd written that before...

Simon Donner @simondonner.bsky.social · Nov 28

It is also giving me deja vu. I'm working on a more detailed analysis of the MOU, and was reminded of writing this for a similar analysis nine years ago:

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