Sydney Ludvigson
@sydneyludvigson.bsky.social
200 followers 30 following 9 posts

Julius Silver, Roslyn S. Silver, and Enid Silver Winslow Professor of Economics and Professor of Finance at New York University, Co-Director NBER Asset Pricing Program. Verify me here https://as.nyu.edu/departments/econ/faculty.html .. more

Economics 87%
Business 10%
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ymschindler.bsky.social
New here and happy to share my job market paper!
"Bad Bank, Bad Luck? Evidence from 1 Million Firm-Bank Relationships"

We build a large novel dataset on US firm-bank relationships to ask the question “How do bank failures affect small business survival and employment?”

A🧵summarizing our findings:

sydneyludvigson.bsky.social
Compelling new evidence. In terms of regulatory implications, how to handle moral hazards?
ymschindler.bsky.social
New here and happy to share my job market paper!
"Bad Bank, Bad Luck? Evidence from 1 Million Firm-Bank Relationships"

We build a large novel dataset on US firm-bank relationships to ask the question “How do bank failures affect small business survival and employment?”

A🧵summarizing our findings:

sydneyludvigson.bsky.social
this can lead markets to underreact to the news even when investors overreact to all perceived shocks. Again any comments or reactions/ideas on how to improve this work from behavioral experts would be great.

sydneyludvigson.bsky.social
And in www.sydneyludvigson.com/s/beliefs_ml... (still a work in progress--thanks to @profstefannagel.bsky.social for comments) we find that real-world news events is a mixture of conflicting signals with counteracting market implications
www.sydneyludvigson.com

sydneyludvigson.bsky.social

Some findings so far:
From www.sydneyludvigson.com/s/biases_aer... professional forecasters (even more so than households!) place too much weight on the private or judgmental component of their forecasts and too little weight on objective, publicly available economic information.
www.sydneyludvigson.com

sydneyludvigson.bsky.social
Since then we have been working to understand how real-world agents form expectations in macro and finance settings using machine learning to find departures from rationality. We welcome comments and ideas on our findings, approach (anything!) as we continue to think about these problems.

sydneyludvigson.bsky.social
"As we address issues of contemporary economic importance, we would do well to acknowledge the enormous complexity of real-world problems economic players face and the possibility that the fully rational outcome is an unattainable theoretical construct... "

sydneyludvigson.bsky.social
We were then pushed by reviewers to show that our equilibrium was characterized by full rationality. This led to a bunch of checks a long discussion and (that got buried in Appendix G) culminating in the caution:

sydneyludvigson.bsky.social
great discussion.

In www.sydneyludvigson.com/s/hwcJPE.pdf
we discuss our approx of the joint distr of individuals w/ asset prices as state variables, since dist matters only insofar as it affects asset prices.

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