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The Institute for Fiscal Studies @theifs.bsky.social · 3h

Congratulations to IFS Research Fellow Philippe Aghion for being jointly awarded the 2025 Nobel Prize in Economic Sciences.

Read more here: ifs.org.uk/news/ifs-res...

IFS Research Fellow Philippe Aghion jointly awarded the 2025 Nobel Prize in Economic Sciences | Institute for Fiscal Studies

Award recognises work on the theory of sustained growth through creative destruction.

ifs.org.uk

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Ben Zaranko @benzaranko.bsky.social · 7h

This discussion of the potential for a new annual wealth tax (my colleagues caution against and argue we’d be better off fixing the wealth-related taxes we already have).

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Reposted by The Institute for Fiscal Studies

Ben Zaranko @benzaranko.bsky.social · 7h

This discussion of the case for broadening the UK’s unusually narrow VAT base. I particularly like the point about the waste of human ingenuity arguing about this nonsense in the courts.

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Ben Zaranko @benzaranko.bsky.social · 7h

This brief but brilliant discussion of the problems with stamp duty land tax.

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Ben Zaranko @benzaranko.bsky.social · 7h

Finally, it's not too late to sign up to our Green Budget launch event this Thursday where we'll be talking about the UK's macroeconomic outlook, bond market challenges, the state of the public finances, tax options, the fiscal rules, etc. Come along!

bsky.app/profile/benz...

Ben Zaranko @benzaranko.bsky.social · 10d

On 16 October we're launching this year's IFS Green Budget, looking at the major challenges & choices facing the Chancellor this autumn.

Sign up for our event! Analysis from IFS & Barclays, plus reflections from Jonathan Haskel & Andy King. It'll be great. ifs.org.uk/events/ifs-g...

IFS Green Budget 2025 | Institute for Fiscal Studies

The IFS Green Budget will assess the state of the UK economy and the government’s fiscal position ahead of the Autumn Budget.

ifs.org.uk

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Ben Zaranko @benzaranko.bsky.social · 7h

This chart showing an alarming increase in the corporation tax gap. Among smaller companies there’s now a 40% gap ‘between the amount of tax that should, in theory, be paid to HMRC, and what is actually paid’.

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Reposted by The Institute for Fiscal Studies

Ben Zaranko @benzaranko.bsky.social · 7h

There will be lots of speculation about tax over the next 6 weeks, for better or worse. This chapter is a plea for the government to think about how to make the system work better, rather than just raise the taxes which pose fewest short-term political hurdles.

Some highlights:

The Institute for Fiscal Studies @theifs.bsky.social · 9h

NEW: Rachel Reeves needs a plan for a better tax system, not a half-baked dash for revenue.

📗 Stuart Adam, Isaac Delestre and @helenmiller.bsky.social's new IFS Green Budget chapter examines the Chancellor’s options for tax increases: ifs.org.uk/publications...

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The Institute for Fiscal Studies @theifs.bsky.social · 7h

STARTING NOW: Tax options for a tight Budget

Watch our live event as our researches explore some of the tax options that remain open to the Chancellor.

🖥️ Watch live here: www.youtube.com/watch?v=dMvJ...
❔ Ask questions here: app.sli.do/event/dnaNzi...

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Ben Zaranko @benzaranko.bsky.social · 18h

Re-bumping this article, which is in print today. Particularly pleased with this paragraph.

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Gavin Kelly @gavin-kelly.bsky.social · 7h

All Budgets are billed as important but this one is set to be especially challenging.

Pleased @nuffieldfoundation.org supports @theifs.bsky.social Green Budget which illuminates the key choices & trade-offs.

Here's the chapter on options for tax increases.

ifs.org.uk/publications...

Options for tax increases | Institute for Fiscal Studies

If the Chancellor hopes to raise large sums from tax increases at the Budget, she should consider reforms that would make any increases less damaging.

ifs.org.uk

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The Institute for Fiscal Studies @theifs.bsky.social · 9h

“Muddling through by simply raising rates of current taxes might appear the easier option… but relying on badly designed taxes to bring in additional revenue will bring unnecessary economic damage.”

📗 Read the full chapter, funded by @nuffieldfoundation.org, here: ifs.org.uk/publications...

Quote from IFS Director Helen Miller: "What will make this Budget important is the choice not only over how much tax to raise, but over how to raise it. There is an opportunity to be bold and take steps towards a system that does less to impede growth and works better for us all. Muddling through by simply raising rates of current taxes might appear the easier option – Rachel Reeves’s predecessors in the Treasury have all too often shied away from taking bold steps to improve the tax system. But relying on badly designed taxes to bring in additional revenue will bring unnecessary economic damage."

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The Institute for Fiscal Studies @theifs.bsky.social · 9h

NEW: Rachel Reeves needs a plan for a better tax system, not a half-baked dash for revenue.

📗 Stuart Adam, Isaac Delestre and @helenmiller.bsky.social's new IFS Green Budget chapter examines the Chancellor’s options for tax increases: ifs.org.uk/publications...

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The Institute for Fiscal Studies @theifs.bsky.social · 1d

EVENT: Tax options for a tight Budget

Mon 13 October | 10 – 11am | Online

Join @helenmiller.bsky.social & Isaac Delestre tomorrow for our IFS Green Budget event on the (many) shortcomings of the British tax system and the options open to the Chancellor.

📅 Sign up here: ifs.org.uk/events/tax-o...

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The Institute for Fiscal Studies @theifs.bsky.social · 2d

How has UK defence spending changed in the past 80 years?

@maxwarner.bsky.social outlines how UK defence spending has declined as a share of GDP since WWII, but has increased since in real terms back to mid-1980s levels.

🎧 Listen here: ifs.org.uk/articles/end...

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The Institute for Fiscal Studies @theifs.bsky.social · 2d

📗 Read Martin Mikloš and @xiaoweixu.bsky.social's IFS Green Budget chapter, funded by @nuffieldfoundation.org, on unemployment insurance here: ifs.org.uk/news/governm...

Government’s proposed unemployment insurance benefit could save billions annually | Institute for Fiscal Studies

Enhanced unemployment insurance to reward jobseekers while reducing support for long-term claimants of contributory disability benefits

ifs.org.uk

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The Institute for Fiscal Studies @theifs.bsky.social · 2d

📈 #IFSSatStat: More than four in five current claimants of contributory benefits have claimed for at least a year. This means if the new 'unemployment insurance' set to replace this system is restricted to a year, the vast majority of current claimants would no longer be eligible.

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The Institute for Fiscal Studies @theifs.bsky.social · 3d

'Overall we're slightly creaking at the seams.'

@mtsavill.bsky.social explains that despite higher spending and strong support for Ukraine, the UK’s military still faces serious capability and readiness gaps.

🎧 Listen here: ifs.org.uk/articles/end...

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Ben Zaranko @benzaranko.bsky.social · 4d

The government is talking up the importance of ‘contribution’ and is planning a new ‘Unemployment Insurance’ benefit. What might that mean in practice? Well, for one thing, it might save the Treasury a few billion…

Some great new work: ifs.org.uk/publications...

With summary thread here 👇

The Institute for Fiscal Studies @theifs.bsky.social · 4d

NEW: The UK social security system offers relatively little income protection after job loss.

THREAD on Martin Mikloš and @xiaoweixu.bsky.social's IFS Green Budget chapter on the options for introducing ‘unemployment insurance’:

Chart shows net replacement rates in unemployment for a single homeowner with no children. Title states: "Unemployment benefits in the UK are low compared to OECD countries, and contributory benefits are no higher than means-tested benefits."

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The Institute for Fiscal Studies @theifs.bsky.social · 4d

NEW PODCAST: Should Labour scrap the two-child limit?

This week @helenmiller.bsky.social is joined by Tom Waters and @ckfarquharson.bsky.social to examine the two-child limit: its history, its impact on children and poverty and the options for reform.

🎧 Listen here: ifs.org.uk/articles/sho...

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The Institute for Fiscal Studies @theifs.bsky.social · 4d

EVENT: Tax options for a tight Budget

Mon 13 Oct | 10:00 – 11:00 | Online

📅 Sign up for our IFS Green Budget event, funded by Barclays & @nuffieldfoundation.org, on the tax options that remain open to the Chancellor, how much they would raise and their economic merits.
ifs.org.uk/events/tax-o...

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The Institute for Fiscal Studies @theifs.bsky.social · 4d

'If the British army went to war now, the estimates are that it would fire all of its shells for artillery within a matter of days'

@mtsavill.bsky.social describes the state of the British armed forces' stockpiles and the efforts to replenish them.

🎧 Listen here: ifs.org.uk/articles/end...

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Reposted by The Institute for Fiscal Studies

Ben Zaranko @benzaranko.bsky.social · 5d

I've written about the UK's productivity problem for @theobserveruk.bsky.social. Come for the comparison of the UK economy to a hedgehog, stay for the comparison of Rachel Reeves to a Dickens character.

observer.co.uk/news/busines...

In Britain’s ‘hedgehog economy’, growth is wild, spiky – ...

The spines on the OBR’s charts are a signal to the chancellor to pull all the levers to improve our growth prospects

observer.co.uk

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The Institute for Fiscal Studies @theifs.bsky.social · 4d

“It is high time contributory benefits in the UK were modernised.”

Read the full IFS Green Budget chapter, funded by @nuffieldfoundation.org, here: ifs.org.uk/publications...

Quote from IFS Research Economist Martin Mikloš: "Contributory benefits in the UK, available to those who have previously ‘paid in’ regardless of household income, are a small but significant part of the overall social safety net. Their design has been neglected for many years and it is high time they were modernised, not least so that they work better alongside the rest of the benefits system."

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The Institute for Fiscal Studies @theifs.bsky.social · 4d

Those with long-term health conditions stand to lose out from the reform, though low-income people could continue to get the same amount through universal credit.

Transitional protections may be required for the 0.7 million NS ESA claimants who have claimed for at least a year.

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The Institute for Fiscal Studies @theifs.bsky.social · 4d

53% of those who become unemployed or long-term sick find another job within 12 months, though long-term sickness is much more persistent than unemployment.

Chart shows the persistence of worklessness for people who become unemployed or long-term sick, 2012–19. Title states: "A 12-month UI would cover half of those who lose their jobs for the entire duration of their out-of-work spells."

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