The Institute for Fiscal Studies
@theifs.bsky.social
Official account for Britain’s leading independent economic research institute. https://ifs.org.uk/
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“This was a big Budget, but not in the way people were necessarily expecting.” – @helenmiller.bsky.social
📗 Our immediate IFS response to #Budget2025 is out now: ifs.org.uk/articles/aut...
📗 Our immediate IFS response to #Budget2025 is out now: ifs.org.uk/articles/aut...
NEW PODCAST: The Autumn Budget 2025 explained
@helenmiller.bsky.social, @benzaranko.bsky.social and @ckfarquharson.bsky.social break down the major decisions in a packed Autumn Budget and what they mean for the UK in our new IFS Zooms In episode.
🎧 Listen here: ifs.org.uk/articles/aut...
@helenmiller.bsky.social, @benzaranko.bsky.social and @ckfarquharson.bsky.social break down the major decisions in a packed Autumn Budget and what they mean for the UK in our new IFS Zooms In episode.
🎧 Listen here: ifs.org.uk/articles/aut...
November 27, 2025 at 4:19 PM
NEW PODCAST: The Autumn Budget 2025 explained
@helenmiller.bsky.social, @benzaranko.bsky.social and @ckfarquharson.bsky.social break down the major decisions in a packed Autumn Budget and what they mean for the UK in our new IFS Zooms In episode.
🎧 Listen here: ifs.org.uk/articles/aut...
@helenmiller.bsky.social, @benzaranko.bsky.social and @ckfarquharson.bsky.social break down the major decisions in a packed Autumn Budget and what they mean for the UK in our new IFS Zooms In episode.
🎧 Listen here: ifs.org.uk/articles/aut...
Reposted by The Institute for Fiscal Studies
Key thing about the OBR's downgrade then upgrade to revenues: much of it is from inflation and wage growth this year boosting tax take.
While inflation and wage growth are up, we're yet to see any increase in tax revenue in recent public finance data. The government will hope it materialises soon.
While inflation and wage growth are up, we're yet to see any increase in tax revenue in recent public finance data. The government will hope it materialises soon.
The OBR has downgraded its medium-term productivity forecast, but higher inflation and wage growth have more than offset the impact on receipts.
This is a key reason the fiscal repair job is much smaller than expected.
This is a key reason the fiscal repair job is much smaller than expected.
November 27, 2025 at 1:28 PM
Key thing about the OBR's downgrade then upgrade to revenues: much of it is from inflation and wage growth this year boosting tax take.
While inflation and wage growth are up, we're yet to see any increase in tax revenue in recent public finance data. The government will hope it materialises soon.
While inflation and wage growth are up, we're yet to see any increase in tax revenue in recent public finance data. The government will hope it materialises soon.
NEW: There is a due to be a £6 billion gap between SEND funding and spending in 2028-29, on the basis of OBR forecasts.
📗@lukesibieta runs through the three main options for filling this gap: ifs.org.uk/articles/aut...
📗@lukesibieta runs through the three main options for filling this gap: ifs.org.uk/articles/aut...
November 27, 2025 at 1:27 PM
NEW: There is a due to be a £6 billion gap between SEND funding and spending in 2028-29, on the basis of OBR forecasts.
📗@lukesibieta runs through the three main options for filling this gap: ifs.org.uk/articles/aut...
📗@lukesibieta runs through the three main options for filling this gap: ifs.org.uk/articles/aut...
Reposted by The Institute for Fiscal Studies
Underrated part of yesterday's Budget was what's happening to public service spending in 2028-29. Spending Review settlements reopened just 5 months after the SR to account for loosely-specified 'efficiency savings' of £1.4bn in 28-29 (rising to 4bn in 29-30)
November 27, 2025 at 11:58 AM
Underrated part of yesterday's Budget was what's happening to public service spending in 2028-29. Spending Review settlements reopened just 5 months after the SR to account for loosely-specified 'efficiency savings' of £1.4bn in 28-29 (rising to 4bn in 29-30)
Reposted by The Institute for Fiscal Studies
Having now mulled overnight, a few aspects of the Budget where the government deserves some credit:
1) Increasing fiscal headroom
2) A plan for how to tax electric cars, at last (even if imperfect)
3) A plan to gradually undo the "temporary" 5p cut in fuel duty
1) Increasing fiscal headroom
2) A plan for how to tax electric cars, at last (even if imperfect)
3) A plan to gradually undo the "temporary" 5p cut in fuel duty
Some immediate Budget takes from @helenmiller.bsky.social and the IFS hive mind at the link below.
What's most striking, to me at least, is the decision to rely so much on tax rises that kick in at the back end of the parliament - just in time for the next election...
What's most striking, to me at least, is the decision to rely so much on tax rises that kick in at the back end of the parliament - just in time for the next election...
“This was a big Budget, but not in the way people were necessarily expecting.” – @helenmiller.bsky.social
📗 Our immediate IFS response to #Budget2025 is out now: ifs.org.uk/articles/aut...
📗 Our immediate IFS response to #Budget2025 is out now: ifs.org.uk/articles/aut...
November 27, 2025 at 12:15 PM
Having now mulled overnight, a few aspects of the Budget where the government deserves some credit:
1) Increasing fiscal headroom
2) A plan for how to tax electric cars, at last (even if imperfect)
3) A plan to gradually undo the "temporary" 5p cut in fuel duty
1) Increasing fiscal headroom
2) A plan for how to tax electric cars, at last (even if imperfect)
3) A plan to gradually undo the "temporary" 5p cut in fuel duty
The extra tax you will see as a result of the personal tax threshold freezes will depend on where you are in the earnings distribution.
Tom Waters presents on changes to personal taxes and benefits in yesterday's #Budget2025.
Watch live here: www.youtube.com/watch?v=4WQA...
Tom Waters presents on changes to personal taxes and benefits in yesterday's #Budget2025.
Watch live here: www.youtube.com/watch?v=4WQA...
November 27, 2025 at 11:21 AM
The extra tax you will see as a result of the personal tax threshold freezes will depend on where you are in the earnings distribution.
Tom Waters presents on changes to personal taxes and benefits in yesterday's #Budget2025.
Watch live here: www.youtube.com/watch?v=4WQA...
Tom Waters presents on changes to personal taxes and benefits in yesterday's #Budget2025.
Watch live here: www.youtube.com/watch?v=4WQA...
Reposted by The Institute for Fiscal Studies
Good news: We now have a forecast for SEND spending, rather than flying blind.
From 2028, central gov't will fund all SEND provision from within departmental spending. Without reform or spending top-ups, that's a £6bn pressure on budgets that year.
@theifs.bsky.social #Budget2025
From 2028, central gov't will fund all SEND provision from within departmental spending. Without reform or spending top-ups, that's a £6bn pressure on budgets that year.
@theifs.bsky.social #Budget2025
November 27, 2025 at 11:10 AM
Good news: We now have a forecast for SEND spending, rather than flying blind.
From 2028, central gov't will fund all SEND provision from within departmental spending. Without reform or spending top-ups, that's a £6bn pressure on budgets that year.
@theifs.bsky.social #Budget2025
From 2028, central gov't will fund all SEND provision from within departmental spending. Without reform or spending top-ups, that's a £6bn pressure on budgets that year.
@theifs.bsky.social #Budget2025
📊Isaac Delestre presents on the changes to indirect and capital taxes in yesterday's #Budget2025, including taxes on saving and investment, the new 'mansion' tax, and indirect and environmental taxation.
Watch live here: www.youtube.com/watch?v=4WQA...
Watch live here: www.youtube.com/watch?v=4WQA...
Autumn Budget 2025: IFS analysis
YouTube video by Institute for Fiscal Studies
www.youtube.com
November 27, 2025 at 11:02 AM
📊Isaac Delestre presents on the changes to indirect and capital taxes in yesterday's #Budget2025, including taxes on saving and investment, the new 'mansion' tax, and indirect and environmental taxation.
Watch live here: www.youtube.com/watch?v=4WQA...
Watch live here: www.youtube.com/watch?v=4WQA...
📊 @nickridpath.bsky.social presents our overnight analysis of the public finances #Budget2025:
Watch live here: youtube.com/live/4WQAf3h...
Watch live here: youtube.com/live/4WQAf3h...
Autumn Budget 2025: IFS analysis
YouTube video by Institute for Fiscal Studies
youtube.com
November 27, 2025 at 10:48 AM
📊 @nickridpath.bsky.social presents our overnight analysis of the public finances #Budget2025:
Watch live here: youtube.com/live/4WQAf3h...
Watch live here: youtube.com/live/4WQAf3h...
#BUDGET2025 EVENT LIVE NOW: We present our IFS overnight analysis of yesterday’s Budget, starting with our opening remarks from Director @helenmiller.bsky.social:
🖥️ Watch live here: youtube.com/live/4WQAf3h...
❓ Ask questions here: app.sli.do/event/b1BMLx...
🖥️ Watch live here: youtube.com/live/4WQAf3h...
❓ Ask questions here: app.sli.do/event/b1BMLx...
Autumn Budget 2025: IFS analysis
To ask questions to the panel, please use Slido: https://app.sli.do/event/b1BMLxh4ddYHRQTcgmN4aPChancellor Rachel Reeves will present her much-anticipated Au...
youtube.com
November 27, 2025 at 10:29 AM
#BUDGET2025 EVENT LIVE NOW: We present our IFS overnight analysis of yesterday’s Budget, starting with our opening remarks from Director @helenmiller.bsky.social:
🖥️ Watch live here: youtube.com/live/4WQAf3h...
❓ Ask questions here: app.sli.do/event/b1BMLx...
🖥️ Watch live here: youtube.com/live/4WQAf3h...
❓ Ask questions here: app.sli.do/event/b1BMLx...
Reposted by The Institute for Fiscal Studies
Some early takeaways on the public finances from us @theifs.bsky.social. Really interesting thing to me is that the much-anticipated productivity downgrade didn't end up creating that big an increase in forecast borrowing. This means the policies we've seen today have grown headroom substantially.
📈The OBR downgraded their productivity forecast, but higher inflation and wage growth meant higher forecast receipts overall.
However, additional spending pressures meant a £6bn hit to headroom in 2029-30 in the pre-measures forecast.
#Budget2025 public finances THREAD: [1/4]
However, additional spending pressures meant a £6bn hit to headroom in 2029-30 in the pre-measures forecast.
#Budget2025 public finances THREAD: [1/4]
November 26, 2025 at 4:22 PM
Some early takeaways on the public finances from us @theifs.bsky.social. Really interesting thing to me is that the much-anticipated productivity downgrade didn't end up creating that big an increase in forecast borrowing. This means the policies we've seen today have grown headroom substantially.
Join us tomorrow morning for our full initial analysis of Rachel Reeves' #Budget2025 at our online webinar, with presentations on the key policy decisions and a Q&A.
📅 Sign up for a reminder here: ifs.org.uk/events/autum...
📅 Sign up for a reminder here: ifs.org.uk/events/autum...
Autumn Budget 2025: IFS analysis | Institute for Fiscal Studies
At this online webinar IFS researchers present their initial response to Chancellor Rachel Reeves' Autumn Budget.
ifs.org.uk
November 26, 2025 at 5:13 PM
Join us tomorrow morning for our full initial analysis of Rachel Reeves' #Budget2025 at our online webinar, with presentations on the key policy decisions and a Q&A.
📅 Sign up for a reminder here: ifs.org.uk/events/autum...
📅 Sign up for a reminder here: ifs.org.uk/events/autum...
The tax threshold freezes announced today, alongside other direct tax reforms since 2021–22, mean that the current median earner will pay £900 more tax in 2030–31 compared to if there had been no reforms since 2021–22. An earner in the 90th percentile faces a £2,200 tax increase.
#Budget2025
#Budget2025
November 26, 2025 at 5:05 PM
The tax threshold freezes announced today, alongside other direct tax reforms since 2021–22, mean that the current median earner will pay £900 more tax in 2030–31 compared to if there had been no reforms since 2021–22. An earner in the 90th percentile faces a £2,200 tax increase.
#Budget2025
#Budget2025
Here's what the #Budget2025 means in 90 seconds, from IFS Director @helenmiller.bsky.social:
November 26, 2025 at 4:18 PM
Here's what the #Budget2025 means in 90 seconds, from IFS Director @helenmiller.bsky.social:
📈The OBR downgraded their productivity forecast, but higher inflation and wage growth meant higher forecast receipts overall.
However, additional spending pressures meant a £6bn hit to headroom in 2029-30 in the pre-measures forecast.
#Budget2025 public finances THREAD: [1/4]
However, additional spending pressures meant a £6bn hit to headroom in 2029-30 in the pre-measures forecast.
#Budget2025 public finances THREAD: [1/4]
November 26, 2025 at 4:14 PM
📈The OBR downgraded their productivity forecast, but higher inflation and wage growth meant higher forecast receipts overall.
However, additional spending pressures meant a £6bn hit to headroom in 2029-30 in the pre-measures forecast.
#Budget2025 public finances THREAD: [1/4]
However, additional spending pressures meant a £6bn hit to headroom in 2029-30 in the pre-measures forecast.
#Budget2025 public finances THREAD: [1/4]
"£26 billion pounds of tax rises is pretty chunky, having increased taxes by £32 billion last year.
Other parliaments will come close, but it's a big tax increase."
📊 @helenmiller.bsky.social and @edconway.bsky.social
discuss the below chart on tax increases this parliament so far on Sky News.
Other parliaments will come close, but it's a big tax increase."
📊 @helenmiller.bsky.social and @edconway.bsky.social
discuss the below chart on tax increases this parliament so far on Sky News.
If there were an election tomorrow, more net tax increases would have been announced in this parliament than in any other since at least 1970.
#Budget2025
#Budget2025
November 26, 2025 at 4:00 PM
"£26 billion pounds of tax rises is pretty chunky, having increased taxes by £32 billion last year.
Other parliaments will come close, but it's a big tax increase."
📊 @helenmiller.bsky.social and @edconway.bsky.social
discuss the below chart on tax increases this parliament so far on Sky News.
Other parliaments will come close, but it's a big tax increase."
📊 @helenmiller.bsky.social and @edconway.bsky.social
discuss the below chart on tax increases this parliament so far on Sky News.
Reposted by The Institute for Fiscal Studies
Based on provisional outturns, the OBR expects spending on SEND will grow by over £2 billion or 17% in cash-terms in 2025-26
That is HUGE growth and about double what we expected
@theifs.bsky.social
That is HUGE growth and about double what we expected
@theifs.bsky.social
November 26, 2025 at 3:37 PM
Based on provisional outturns, the OBR expects spending on SEND will grow by over £2 billion or 17% in cash-terms in 2025-26
That is HUGE growth and about double what we expected
@theifs.bsky.social
That is HUGE growth and about double what we expected
@theifs.bsky.social
Reposted by The Institute for Fiscal Studies
Some immediate Budget takes from @helenmiller.bsky.social and the IFS hive mind at the link below.
What's most striking, to me at least, is the decision to rely so much on tax rises that kick in at the back end of the parliament - just in time for the next election...
What's most striking, to me at least, is the decision to rely so much on tax rises that kick in at the back end of the parliament - just in time for the next election...
“This was a big Budget, but not in the way people were necessarily expecting.” – @helenmiller.bsky.social
📗 Our immediate IFS response to #Budget2025 is out now: ifs.org.uk/articles/aut...
📗 Our immediate IFS response to #Budget2025 is out now: ifs.org.uk/articles/aut...
November 26, 2025 at 3:18 PM
Some immediate Budget takes from @helenmiller.bsky.social and the IFS hive mind at the link below.
What's most striking, to me at least, is the decision to rely so much on tax rises that kick in at the back end of the parliament - just in time for the next election...
What's most striking, to me at least, is the decision to rely so much on tax rises that kick in at the back end of the parliament - just in time for the next election...
“This was a big Budget, but not in the way people were necessarily expecting.” – @helenmiller.bsky.social
📗 Our immediate IFS response to #Budget2025 is out now: ifs.org.uk/articles/aut...
📗 Our immediate IFS response to #Budget2025 is out now: ifs.org.uk/articles/aut...
November 26, 2025 at 3:06 PM
“This was a big Budget, but not in the way people were necessarily expecting.” – @helenmiller.bsky.social
📗 Our immediate IFS response to #Budget2025 is out now: ifs.org.uk/articles/aut...
📗 Our immediate IFS response to #Budget2025 is out now: ifs.org.uk/articles/aut...
The government has announced it intends to abolish the two-child limit, at a cost of £3bn according to @OBR_UK.
This is one of the most cost-effective levers the government has to achieve a quick reduction in child poverty, given the high poverty rates among larger families.
#Budget2025
This is one of the most cost-effective levers the government has to achieve a quick reduction in child poverty, given the high poverty rates among larger families.
#Budget2025
November 26, 2025 at 2:55 PM
The government has announced it intends to abolish the two-child limit, at a cost of £3bn according to @OBR_UK.
This is one of the most cost-effective levers the government has to achieve a quick reduction in child poverty, given the high poverty rates among larger families.
#Budget2025
This is one of the most cost-effective levers the government has to achieve a quick reduction in child poverty, given the high poverty rates among larger families.
#Budget2025
"Fiscal drag is in full force,” says @helenmiller.bsky.social
on #PoliticsLive responding to the #Budget2025.
“We are continuing to leave tax revenues to the vagaries of inflation: how much we actually get from these measures will depend on how inflation turns out.”
on #PoliticsLive responding to the #Budget2025.
“We are continuing to leave tax revenues to the vagaries of inflation: how much we actually get from these measures will depend on how inflation turns out.”
November 26, 2025 at 2:25 PM
"Fiscal drag is in full force,” says @helenmiller.bsky.social
on #PoliticsLive responding to the #Budget2025.
“We are continuing to leave tax revenues to the vagaries of inflation: how much we actually get from these measures will depend on how inflation turns out.”
on #PoliticsLive responding to the #Budget2025.
“We are continuing to leave tax revenues to the vagaries of inflation: how much we actually get from these measures will depend on how inflation turns out.”
If there were an election tomorrow, more net tax increases would have been announced in this parliament than in any other since at least 1970.
#Budget2025
#Budget2025
November 26, 2025 at 2:12 PM
If there were an election tomorrow, more net tax increases would have been announced in this parliament than in any other since at least 1970.
#Budget2025
#Budget2025
Reposted by The Institute for Fiscal Studies
My concern about this is that the OBR's spring forecast for fiscal aggregates will be available for all to see. Anyone can read off the spreadsheet. If government is off track by a sizeable margin, it's very likely to trigger policy speculation and/or demands for a response.
November 26, 2025 at 1:41 PM
My concern about this is that the OBR's spring forecast for fiscal aggregates will be available for all to see. Anyone can read off the spreadsheet. If government is off track by a sizeable margin, it's very likely to trigger policy speculation and/or demands for a response.
Reposted by The Institute for Fiscal Studies
The OBR will now only assess performance against the fiscal rules once per year (in the autumn) but will continue to produce two forecasts each year. Relies on the world understanding that if the OBR forecast a current budget deficit in the spring, it's not technically a breach.
November 26, 2025 at 1:41 PM
The OBR will now only assess performance against the fiscal rules once per year (in the autumn) but will continue to produce two forecasts each year. Relies on the world understanding that if the OBR forecast a current budget deficit in the spring, it's not technically a breach.
“The biggest single measure is the freeze to personal tax thresholds which will mean a big tax increase for most people.
“More people being brought into tax, people paying higher tax when they’re paying it.”
📺 @helenmiller.bsky.social responds to #Budget2025 #PoliticsLive
“More people being brought into tax, people paying higher tax when they’re paying it.”
📺 @helenmiller.bsky.social responds to #Budget2025 #PoliticsLive
November 26, 2025 at 1:59 PM
“The biggest single measure is the freeze to personal tax thresholds which will mean a big tax increase for most people.
“More people being brought into tax, people paying higher tax when they’re paying it.”
📺 @helenmiller.bsky.social responds to #Budget2025 #PoliticsLive
“More people being brought into tax, people paying higher tax when they’re paying it.”
📺 @helenmiller.bsky.social responds to #Budget2025 #PoliticsLive