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The Institute for Fiscal Studies @theifs.bsky.social · 1h

'Overall we're slightly creaking at the seams.'

@mtsavill.bsky.social explains that despite higher spending and strong support for Ukraine, the UK’s military still faces serious capability and readiness gaps.

🎧 Listen here: ifs.org.uk/articles/end...

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Reposted by The Institute for Fiscal Studies

Ben Zaranko @benzaranko.bsky.social · 22h

The government is talking up the importance of ‘contribution’ and is planning a new ‘Unemployment Insurance’ benefit. What might that mean in practice? Well, for one thing, it might save the Treasury a few billion…

Some great new work: ifs.org.uk/publications...

With summary thread here 👇

The Institute for Fiscal Studies @theifs.bsky.social · 1d

NEW: The UK social security system offers relatively little income protection after job loss.

THREAD on Martin Mikloš and @xiaoweixu.bsky.social's IFS Green Budget chapter on the options for introducing ‘unemployment insurance’:

Chart shows net replacement rates in unemployment for a single homeowner with no children. Title states: "Unemployment benefits in the UK are low compared to OECD countries, and contributory benefits are no higher than means-tested benefits."

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The Institute for Fiscal Studies @theifs.bsky.social · 22h

NEW PODCAST: Should Labour scrap the two-child limit?

This week @helenmiller.bsky.social is joined by Tom Waters and @ckfarquharson.bsky.social to examine the two-child limit: its history, its impact on children and poverty and the options for reform.

🎧 Listen here: ifs.org.uk/articles/sho...

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The Institute for Fiscal Studies @theifs.bsky.social · 22h

EVENT: Tax options for a tight Budget

Mon 13 Oct | 10:00 – 11:00 | Online

📅 Sign up for our IFS Green Budget event, funded by Barclays & @nuffieldfoundation.org, on the tax options that remain open to the Chancellor, how much they would raise and their economic merits.
ifs.org.uk/events/tax-o...

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The Institute for Fiscal Studies @theifs.bsky.social · 23h

'If the British army went to war now, the estimates are that it would fire all of its shells for artillery within a matter of days'

@mtsavill.bsky.social describes the state of the British armed forces' stockpiles and the efforts to replenish them.

🎧 Listen here: ifs.org.uk/articles/end...

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Reposted by The Institute for Fiscal Studies

Ben Zaranko @benzaranko.bsky.social · 2d

I've written about the UK's productivity problem for @theobserveruk.bsky.social. Come for the comparison of the UK economy to a hedgehog, stay for the comparison of Rachel Reeves to a Dickens character.

observer.co.uk/news/busines...

In Britain’s ‘hedgehog economy’, growth is wild, spiky – ...

The spines on the OBR’s charts are a signal to the chancellor to pull all the levers to improve our growth prospects

observer.co.uk

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The Institute for Fiscal Studies @theifs.bsky.social · 1d

“It is high time contributory benefits in the UK were modernised.”

Read the full IFS Green Budget chapter, funded by @nuffieldfoundation.org, here: ifs.org.uk/publications...

Quote from IFS Research Economist Martin Mikloš: "Contributory benefits in the UK, available to those who have previously ‘paid in’ regardless of household income, are a small but significant part of the overall social safety net. Their design has been neglected for many years and it is high time they were modernised, not least so that they work better alongside the rest of the benefits system."

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The Institute for Fiscal Studies @theifs.bsky.social · 1d

Those with long-term health conditions stand to lose out from the reform, though low-income people could continue to get the same amount through universal credit.

Transitional protections may be required for the 0.7 million NS ESA claimants who have claimed for at least a year.

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The Institute for Fiscal Studies @theifs.bsky.social · 1d

53% of those who become unemployed or long-term sick find another job within 12 months, though long-term sickness is much more persistent than unemployment.

Chart shows the persistence of worklessness for people who become unemployed or long-term sick, 2012–19. Title states: "A 12-month UI would cover half of those who lose their jobs for the entire duration of their out-of-work spells."

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The Institute for Fiscal Studies @theifs.bsky.social · 1d

Time-limiting the new UI benefit would likely to result in fiscal savings that far outstrip the cost of higher benefit levels or extending the benefit to the self-employed.

A 12-month UI could save around £2 billion a year once transitional protections are exhausted.

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The Institute for Fiscal Studies @theifs.bsky.social · 1d

NS ESA is available indefinitely for most claimants.

Because rates for most NS ESA claimants are higher than for NS JSA, spending is even more skewed towards long-term claims, with 88% of current NS spending going towards claims lasting at least a year.

Chart shows number of NS JSA and NS ESA claimants by current duration of claim. Title states: "More than four in five current contributory benefit claimants have been in receipt for at least one year."

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The Institute for Fiscal Studies @theifs.bsky.social · 1d

The new unemployment insurance would be paid at the higher NS ESA rate, currently only available to those deemed unable to search for work because of health conditions.

The government is yet to decide on how long the benefit will be paid for.

Table shows a comparison between current and proposed contributory benefits. Title states: "The government proposes to replace current contributory out-of-work benefits with a new ‘unemployment insurance’ benefit"

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The Institute for Fiscal Studies @theifs.bsky.social · 1d

Meanwhile, taxes as a share of GDP are at record highs and projected to rise further. This has led to calls for restoring the ‘something-for-something’ principle that underpinned foundations of the UK welfare state.

Chart shows taxes and contributory benefits as a share of national income. Title states: "The role of contributory benefits has shrunk at the same time as taxes have increased to historical highs."

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The Institute for Fiscal Studies @theifs.bsky.social · 1d

NEW: The UK social security system offers relatively little income protection after job loss.

THREAD on Martin Mikloš and @xiaoweixu.bsky.social's IFS Green Budget chapter on the options for introducing ‘unemployment insurance’:

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The Institute for Fiscal Studies @theifs.bsky.social · 2d

'The security environment is not great at the moment. There is a major industrial war on our doorstep.'

@mtsavill.bsky.social explains why the UK's armed forces had been 'hollowed out' in previous decades, from our podcast on defence spending.

🎧 Listen here: ifs.org.uk/articles/end...

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The Institute for Fiscal Studies @theifs.bsky.social · 3d

Are tax rises on the way?

🎙️ Our Director @helenmiller.bsky.social joined the Making Money Podcast to discuss the tough fiscal choices facing the government, and make the case for bold tax reform.

🎧 Listen here: www.youtube.com/watch?v=0H1G...

Your Taxes Are About to Go Up (Again)

Are tax rises on the way? With taxes already at record highs but public services still under strain, the government faces tough choices. Helen Miller, the new director of the IFS (Institute for…

www.youtube.com

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The Institute for Fiscal Studies @theifs.bsky.social · 3d

Next Thursday at 9:30am we launch our IFS Green Budget report, funded by @nuffieldfoundation.org and in association with Barclays, on the economic challenges and trade-offs facing the Chancellor with panelists Jonathan Haskel and Andy King.

📅 Sign up to join here: ifs.org.uk/events/ifs-g...

The Institute for Fiscal Studies @theifs.bsky.social · 3d

"What's a chancellor to do? My advice is to stop thinking in terms of isolated tax increases and start with a vision. The whole system is a mess."

📰 IFS Director @helenmiller.bsky.social writes for @financialtimes.com: www.ft.com/content/d425...

Clear visions for tax reform exist — Reeves just needs to back one

Our system is a mess but experts have already set out what would make it coherent, efficient and equitable

www.ft.com

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The Institute for Fiscal Studies @theifs.bsky.social · 3d

We're looking for outstanding applicants to join the IFS for our 2026 intake of Research Economists.

➡️ Find out more and apply here by 11pm, Sunday 26 October: app.beapplied.com/apply/tgjfew...

➡️ Those on the PhD job market can apply here: econjobmarket.org/organization...

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The Institute for Fiscal Studies @theifs.bsky.social · 3d

COURSE: Remote Policy Evaluation Methods

1st - 3rd December 2025 | Online only

This comprehensive course delves into the principles of research design and explores all main quantitative evaluation methods.

📅 Sign up here: ifs.org.uk/events/ifs-c...

The Institute for Fiscal Studies @theifs.bsky.social · 6d

'Getting to 3.5% percent, that's roughly in today's terms about £36 billion extra spending. You can think of that as £500 per person.'

@maxwarner.bsky.social explains what spending 3.5% of GDP on defence by 2035 would cost per year in our podcast.

🎧 Listen here: ifs.org.uk/articles/end...

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The Institute for Fiscal Studies @theifs.bsky.social · 6d

📗 Read @eduinlatimer.bsky.social, @lukesibieta.bsky.social and Darcey Snape's IFS Green Budget chapter, funded by @nuffieldfoundation.org, on support for children with disabilities and special educational needs here: ifs.org.uk/publications...

Support for children with disabilities and special educational needs | Institute for Fiscal Studies

How do trends, demographics and outcomes of children receiving support for health conditions compare across the benefits and education systems?

ifs.org.uk

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The Institute for Fiscal Studies @theifs.bsky.social · 6d

📈 #IFSSatStat: The rise in disability benefit claims over the past five years has been much higher for children than it has for adults.

Most of the increase in child disability claims relate to neurodevelopmental, learning and behavioural conditions such as autism and ADHD.

Increase in child and adult disability caseloads as a share of each age group, 2019 to 2024

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Reposted by The Institute for Fiscal Studies

Luke Sibieta @lukesibieta.bsky.social · 6d

The only way to improve quality is through increases to supply-side capacity.

This could include a long-term specialist workforce plan, much better training for teachers on SEND needs, better partnerships with special schools and real accountability for outcomes [3/3]

ifs.org.uk/articles/eng...

England’s SEND crisis: costs, challenges and the case for reform | Institute for Fiscal Studies

What are the challenges facing the special educational needs system in England, and how can the government could reform the system?

ifs.org.uk

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Reposted by The Institute for Fiscal Studies

Luke Sibieta @lukesibieta.bsky.social · 6d

Our @theifs.bsky.social projections show a £3 billion real-terms rise in high needs spending between now and 2029

This is about £600m higher than previous forecasts quoted by the NAO

If delivered, current fiscal plans then imply real-terms cuts to mainstream school spending per pupil [1/3]

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