The Institute for Fiscal Studies
@theifs.bsky.social
Official account for Britain’s leading independent economic research institute. https://ifs.org.uk/
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NEW PODCAST: The Autumn Budget 2025 explained
@helenmiller.bsky.social, @benzaranko.bsky.social and @ckfarquharson.bsky.social break down the major decisions in a packed Autumn Budget and what they mean for the UK in our new IFS Zooms In episode.
🎧 Listen here: ifs.org.uk/articles/aut...
@helenmiller.bsky.social, @benzaranko.bsky.social and @ckfarquharson.bsky.social break down the major decisions in a packed Autumn Budget and what they mean for the UK in our new IFS Zooms In episode.
🎧 Listen here: ifs.org.uk/articles/aut...
NEW: The hardest questions for SEND are still to be answered.
@ckfarquharson.bsky.social, Kate Ogden, David Phillips, @lukesibieta.bsky.social and Darcey Snape’s briefing explains how the #Budget2025 will affect SEND spending and the options for councils' SEND-related deficits ⬇️
@ckfarquharson.bsky.social, Kate Ogden, David Phillips, @lukesibieta.bsky.social and Darcey Snape’s briefing explains how the #Budget2025 will affect SEND spending and the options for councils' SEND-related deficits ⬇️
December 2, 2025 at 10:56 AM
NEW: The hardest questions for SEND are still to be answered.
@ckfarquharson.bsky.social, Kate Ogden, David Phillips, @lukesibieta.bsky.social and Darcey Snape’s briefing explains how the #Budget2025 will affect SEND spending and the options for councils' SEND-related deficits ⬇️
@ckfarquharson.bsky.social, Kate Ogden, David Phillips, @lukesibieta.bsky.social and Darcey Snape’s briefing explains how the #Budget2025 will affect SEND spending and the options for councils' SEND-related deficits ⬇️
LIVE NOW: Our event on cognitive decline and financial outcomes in retirement starts now, presenting our new analysis and with a response from Sir Steve Webb.
🖥️ Watch live here: www.youtube.com/watch?v=S1Qk...
❓ Ask questions here: app.sli.do/event/iy84Uv...
🖥️ Watch live here: www.youtube.com/watch?v=S1Qk...
❓ Ask questions here: app.sli.do/event/iy84Uv...
Cognitive decline and financial outcomes in retirement
Ask questions to the panel on Slido, here: https://app.sli.do/event/iy84Uv4AUUdKz1qwYoLPGB
As the UK population ages, and many older people continue to hold their wealth in defined contribution…
www.youtube.com
December 2, 2025 at 9:59 AM
LIVE NOW: Our event on cognitive decline and financial outcomes in retirement starts now, presenting our new analysis and with a response from Sir Steve Webb.
🖥️ Watch live here: www.youtube.com/watch?v=S1Qk...
❓ Ask questions here: app.sli.do/event/iy84Uv...
🖥️ Watch live here: www.youtube.com/watch?v=S1Qk...
❓ Ask questions here: app.sli.do/event/iy84Uv...
NEW: Older people who experience cognitive decline have around £30,000 lower financial wealth than those who do not around eight to ten years after first recording low cognitive function.
Read @heidikarj.bsky.social's new report, funded by the IFS Retirement Saving Consortium ⬇️
Read @heidikarj.bsky.social's new report, funded by the IFS Retirement Saving Consortium ⬇️
December 2, 2025 at 8:15 AM
NEW: Older people who experience cognitive decline have around £30,000 lower financial wealth than those who do not around eight to ten years after first recording low cognitive function.
Read @heidikarj.bsky.social's new report, funded by the IFS Retirement Saving Consortium ⬇️
Read @heidikarj.bsky.social's new report, funded by the IFS Retirement Saving Consortium ⬇️
'The OBR has made Rachel Reeves very lucky in saying we think it [higher tax receipts] are going to come to the rescue in coming years'
@helenmiller.bsky.social explains how tax revenues made Rachel Reeves' job easier this Budget in our podcast.
🎧 Listen here: ifs.org.uk/articles/aut...
@helenmiller.bsky.social explains how tax revenues made Rachel Reeves' job easier this Budget in our podcast.
🎧 Listen here: ifs.org.uk/articles/aut...
November 30, 2025 at 10:01 AM
'The OBR has made Rachel Reeves very lucky in saying we think it [higher tax receipts] are going to come to the rescue in coming years'
@helenmiller.bsky.social explains how tax revenues made Rachel Reeves' job easier this Budget in our podcast.
🎧 Listen here: ifs.org.uk/articles/aut...
@helenmiller.bsky.social explains how tax revenues made Rachel Reeves' job easier this Budget in our podcast.
🎧 Listen here: ifs.org.uk/articles/aut...
'I don't think we can afford to have budgets that look like this in some sense. The growth problem is so bad.'
@helenmiller.bsky.social, @benzaranko.bsky.social & @ckfarquharson.bsky.social discuss the Budget and its implications for growth in our podcast.
🎧 Listen here: ifs.org.uk/articles/aut...
@helenmiller.bsky.social, @benzaranko.bsky.social & @ckfarquharson.bsky.social discuss the Budget and its implications for growth in our podcast.
🎧 Listen here: ifs.org.uk/articles/aut...
November 29, 2025 at 11:01 AM
'I don't think we can afford to have budgets that look like this in some sense. The growth problem is so bad.'
@helenmiller.bsky.social, @benzaranko.bsky.social & @ckfarquharson.bsky.social discuss the Budget and its implications for growth in our podcast.
🎧 Listen here: ifs.org.uk/articles/aut...
@helenmiller.bsky.social, @benzaranko.bsky.social & @ckfarquharson.bsky.social discuss the Budget and its implications for growth in our podcast.
🎧 Listen here: ifs.org.uk/articles/aut...
📊 #IFSSatStat: Next year households will see income gains from Budget reforms including a fuel duty cut relative to existing plans and removing the two-child limit.
The hit from big tax rises is set to kick in later, particularly for middle and higher-income households.
The hit from big tax rises is set to kick in later, particularly for middle and higher-income households.
November 29, 2025 at 9:15 AM
📊 #IFSSatStat: Next year households will see income gains from Budget reforms including a fuel duty cut relative to existing plans and removing the two-child limit.
The hit from big tax rises is set to kick in later, particularly for middle and higher-income households.
The hit from big tax rises is set to kick in later, particularly for middle and higher-income households.
'Real household disposable income is going to grow about 0.4% annually this parliament. That is the second worst growth in living standards we've had since the late 1970s.'
@ckfarquharson.bsky.social discusses living standards in our #Budget2025 podcast.
🎧 Listen here: ifs.org.uk/articles/aut...
@ckfarquharson.bsky.social discusses living standards in our #Budget2025 podcast.
🎧 Listen here: ifs.org.uk/articles/aut...
November 28, 2025 at 3:01 PM
'Real household disposable income is going to grow about 0.4% annually this parliament. That is the second worst growth in living standards we've had since the late 1970s.'
@ckfarquharson.bsky.social discusses living standards in our #Budget2025 podcast.
🎧 Listen here: ifs.org.uk/articles/aut...
@ckfarquharson.bsky.social discusses living standards in our #Budget2025 podcast.
🎧 Listen here: ifs.org.uk/articles/aut...
'The manifesto said no increase in National Insurance. This is an increase in National Insurance.'
@helenmiller.bsky.social and @benzaranko.bsky.social discuss whether the Budget's tax changes are a breach of Labour's manifesto pledge in our new podcast.
🎧 Listen here: ifs.org.uk/articles/aut...
@helenmiller.bsky.social and @benzaranko.bsky.social discuss whether the Budget's tax changes are a breach of Labour's manifesto pledge in our new podcast.
🎧 Listen here: ifs.org.uk/articles/aut...
November 28, 2025 at 1:15 PM
'The manifesto said no increase in National Insurance. This is an increase in National Insurance.'
@helenmiller.bsky.social and @benzaranko.bsky.social discuss whether the Budget's tax changes are a breach of Labour's manifesto pledge in our new podcast.
🎧 Listen here: ifs.org.uk/articles/aut...
@helenmiller.bsky.social and @benzaranko.bsky.social discuss whether the Budget's tax changes are a breach of Labour's manifesto pledge in our new podcast.
🎧 Listen here: ifs.org.uk/articles/aut...
Reposted by The Institute for Fiscal Studies
At no point in the process did the OBR have the government missing its fiscal rules by a large margin. Leaves me baffled by the months of speculation and briefing. Was the plan to lead everyone to expect a big income tax rise, then surprise them on the day by not doing it..?
November 28, 2025 at 11:27 AM
At no point in the process did the OBR have the government missing its fiscal rules by a large margin. Leaves me baffled by the months of speculation and briefing. Was the plan to lead everyone to expect a big income tax rise, then surprise them on the day by not doing it..?
Reposted by The Institute for Fiscal Studies
Continue to be astonished by how quickly my colleagues can turn these podcasts around… we only finished recording at 2pm!
Listen in for our take on the Budget, and our attempt to string together coherent sentences on little sleep…
Listen in for our take on the Budget, and our attempt to string together coherent sentences on little sleep…
NEW PODCAST: The Autumn Budget 2025 explained
@helenmiller.bsky.social, @benzaranko.bsky.social and @ckfarquharson.bsky.social break down the major decisions in a packed Autumn Budget and what they mean for the UK in our new IFS Zooms In episode.
🎧 Listen here: ifs.org.uk/articles/aut...
@helenmiller.bsky.social, @benzaranko.bsky.social and @ckfarquharson.bsky.social break down the major decisions in a packed Autumn Budget and what they mean for the UK in our new IFS Zooms In episode.
🎧 Listen here: ifs.org.uk/articles/aut...
November 27, 2025 at 8:46 PM
Continue to be astonished by how quickly my colleagues can turn these podcasts around… we only finished recording at 2pm!
Listen in for our take on the Budget, and our attempt to string together coherent sentences on little sleep…
Listen in for our take on the Budget, and our attempt to string together coherent sentences on little sleep…
Reposted by The Institute for Fiscal Studies
On Wednesday, we learned that SEND spending is growing much faster than expected, with 14% real-terms growth this year alone.
Govt now has 3 options to close an expected £6bn funding gap in 2028
1. Slow the growth in SEND spending
2. Top up the schools budget
3. Reduce mainstream school budgets
🧵
Govt now has 3 options to close an expected £6bn funding gap in 2028
1. Slow the growth in SEND spending
2. Top up the schools budget
3. Reduce mainstream school budgets
🧵
November 28, 2025 at 8:08 AM
On Wednesday, we learned that SEND spending is growing much faster than expected, with 14% real-terms growth this year alone.
Govt now has 3 options to close an expected £6bn funding gap in 2028
1. Slow the growth in SEND spending
2. Top up the schools budget
3. Reduce mainstream school budgets
🧵
Govt now has 3 options to close an expected £6bn funding gap in 2028
1. Slow the growth in SEND spending
2. Top up the schools budget
3. Reduce mainstream school budgets
🧵
NEW PODCAST: The Autumn Budget 2025 explained
@helenmiller.bsky.social, @benzaranko.bsky.social and @ckfarquharson.bsky.social break down the major decisions in a packed Autumn Budget and what they mean for the UK in our new IFS Zooms In episode.
🎧 Listen here: ifs.org.uk/articles/aut...
@helenmiller.bsky.social, @benzaranko.bsky.social and @ckfarquharson.bsky.social break down the major decisions in a packed Autumn Budget and what they mean for the UK in our new IFS Zooms In episode.
🎧 Listen here: ifs.org.uk/articles/aut...
November 27, 2025 at 4:19 PM
NEW PODCAST: The Autumn Budget 2025 explained
@helenmiller.bsky.social, @benzaranko.bsky.social and @ckfarquharson.bsky.social break down the major decisions in a packed Autumn Budget and what they mean for the UK in our new IFS Zooms In episode.
🎧 Listen here: ifs.org.uk/articles/aut...
@helenmiller.bsky.social, @benzaranko.bsky.social and @ckfarquharson.bsky.social break down the major decisions in a packed Autumn Budget and what they mean for the UK in our new IFS Zooms In episode.
🎧 Listen here: ifs.org.uk/articles/aut...
Reposted by The Institute for Fiscal Studies
Key thing about the OBR's downgrade then upgrade to revenues: much of it is from inflation and wage growth this year boosting tax take.
While inflation and wage growth are up, we're yet to see any increase in tax revenue in recent public finance data. The government will hope it materialises soon.
While inflation and wage growth are up, we're yet to see any increase in tax revenue in recent public finance data. The government will hope it materialises soon.
The OBR has downgraded its medium-term productivity forecast, but higher inflation and wage growth have more than offset the impact on receipts.
This is a key reason the fiscal repair job is much smaller than expected.
This is a key reason the fiscal repair job is much smaller than expected.
November 27, 2025 at 1:28 PM
Key thing about the OBR's downgrade then upgrade to revenues: much of it is from inflation and wage growth this year boosting tax take.
While inflation and wage growth are up, we're yet to see any increase in tax revenue in recent public finance data. The government will hope it materialises soon.
While inflation and wage growth are up, we're yet to see any increase in tax revenue in recent public finance data. The government will hope it materialises soon.
NEW: There is a due to be a £6 billion gap between SEND funding and spending in 2028-29, on the basis of OBR forecasts.
📗@lukesibieta runs through the three main options for filling this gap: ifs.org.uk/articles/aut...
📗@lukesibieta runs through the three main options for filling this gap: ifs.org.uk/articles/aut...
November 27, 2025 at 1:27 PM
NEW: There is a due to be a £6 billion gap between SEND funding and spending in 2028-29, on the basis of OBR forecasts.
📗@lukesibieta runs through the three main options for filling this gap: ifs.org.uk/articles/aut...
📗@lukesibieta runs through the three main options for filling this gap: ifs.org.uk/articles/aut...
Reposted by The Institute for Fiscal Studies
Underrated part of yesterday's Budget was what's happening to public service spending in 2028-29. Spending Review settlements reopened just 5 months after the SR to account for loosely-specified 'efficiency savings' of £1.4bn in 28-29 (rising to 4bn in 29-30)
November 27, 2025 at 11:58 AM
Underrated part of yesterday's Budget was what's happening to public service spending in 2028-29. Spending Review settlements reopened just 5 months after the SR to account for loosely-specified 'efficiency savings' of £1.4bn in 28-29 (rising to 4bn in 29-30)
Reposted by The Institute for Fiscal Studies
Having now mulled overnight, a few aspects of the Budget where the government deserves some credit:
1) Increasing fiscal headroom
2) A plan for how to tax electric cars, at last (even if imperfect)
3) A plan to gradually undo the "temporary" 5p cut in fuel duty
1) Increasing fiscal headroom
2) A plan for how to tax electric cars, at last (even if imperfect)
3) A plan to gradually undo the "temporary" 5p cut in fuel duty
Some immediate Budget takes from @helenmiller.bsky.social and the IFS hive mind at the link below.
What's most striking, to me at least, is the decision to rely so much on tax rises that kick in at the back end of the parliament - just in time for the next election...
What's most striking, to me at least, is the decision to rely so much on tax rises that kick in at the back end of the parliament - just in time for the next election...
“This was a big Budget, but not in the way people were necessarily expecting.” – @helenmiller.bsky.social
📗 Our immediate IFS response to #Budget2025 is out now: ifs.org.uk/articles/aut...
📗 Our immediate IFS response to #Budget2025 is out now: ifs.org.uk/articles/aut...
November 27, 2025 at 12:15 PM
Having now mulled overnight, a few aspects of the Budget where the government deserves some credit:
1) Increasing fiscal headroom
2) A plan for how to tax electric cars, at last (even if imperfect)
3) A plan to gradually undo the "temporary" 5p cut in fuel duty
1) Increasing fiscal headroom
2) A plan for how to tax electric cars, at last (even if imperfect)
3) A plan to gradually undo the "temporary" 5p cut in fuel duty
The extra tax you will see as a result of the personal tax threshold freezes will depend on where you are in the earnings distribution.
Tom Waters presents on changes to personal taxes and benefits in yesterday's #Budget2025.
Watch live here: www.youtube.com/watch?v=4WQA...
Tom Waters presents on changes to personal taxes and benefits in yesterday's #Budget2025.
Watch live here: www.youtube.com/watch?v=4WQA...
November 27, 2025 at 11:21 AM
The extra tax you will see as a result of the personal tax threshold freezes will depend on where you are in the earnings distribution.
Tom Waters presents on changes to personal taxes and benefits in yesterday's #Budget2025.
Watch live here: www.youtube.com/watch?v=4WQA...
Tom Waters presents on changes to personal taxes and benefits in yesterday's #Budget2025.
Watch live here: www.youtube.com/watch?v=4WQA...
Reposted by The Institute for Fiscal Studies
Good news: We now have a forecast for SEND spending, rather than flying blind.
From 2028, central gov't will fund all SEND provision from within departmental spending. Without reform or spending top-ups, that's a £6bn pressure on budgets that year.
@theifs.bsky.social #Budget2025
From 2028, central gov't will fund all SEND provision from within departmental spending. Without reform or spending top-ups, that's a £6bn pressure on budgets that year.
@theifs.bsky.social #Budget2025
November 27, 2025 at 11:10 AM
Good news: We now have a forecast for SEND spending, rather than flying blind.
From 2028, central gov't will fund all SEND provision from within departmental spending. Without reform or spending top-ups, that's a £6bn pressure on budgets that year.
@theifs.bsky.social #Budget2025
From 2028, central gov't will fund all SEND provision from within departmental spending. Without reform or spending top-ups, that's a £6bn pressure on budgets that year.
@theifs.bsky.social #Budget2025
📊Isaac Delestre presents on the changes to indirect and capital taxes in yesterday's #Budget2025, including taxes on saving and investment, the new 'mansion' tax, and indirect and environmental taxation.
Watch live here: www.youtube.com/watch?v=4WQA...
Watch live here: www.youtube.com/watch?v=4WQA...
Autumn Budget 2025: IFS analysis
YouTube video by Institute for Fiscal Studies
www.youtube.com
November 27, 2025 at 11:02 AM
📊Isaac Delestre presents on the changes to indirect and capital taxes in yesterday's #Budget2025, including taxes on saving and investment, the new 'mansion' tax, and indirect and environmental taxation.
Watch live here: www.youtube.com/watch?v=4WQA...
Watch live here: www.youtube.com/watch?v=4WQA...
📊 @nickridpath.bsky.social presents our overnight analysis of the public finances #Budget2025:
Watch live here: youtube.com/live/4WQAf3h...
Watch live here: youtube.com/live/4WQAf3h...
Autumn Budget 2025: IFS analysis
YouTube video by Institute for Fiscal Studies
youtube.com
November 27, 2025 at 10:48 AM
📊 @nickridpath.bsky.social presents our overnight analysis of the public finances #Budget2025:
Watch live here: youtube.com/live/4WQAf3h...
Watch live here: youtube.com/live/4WQAf3h...
#BUDGET2025 EVENT LIVE NOW: We present our IFS overnight analysis of yesterday’s Budget, starting with our opening remarks from Director @helenmiller.bsky.social:
🖥️ Watch live here: youtube.com/live/4WQAf3h...
❓ Ask questions here: app.sli.do/event/b1BMLx...
🖥️ Watch live here: youtube.com/live/4WQAf3h...
❓ Ask questions here: app.sli.do/event/b1BMLx...
Autumn Budget 2025: IFS analysis
To ask questions to the panel, please use Slido: https://app.sli.do/event/b1BMLxh4ddYHRQTcgmN4aPChancellor Rachel Reeves will present her much-anticipated Au...
youtube.com
November 27, 2025 at 10:29 AM
#BUDGET2025 EVENT LIVE NOW: We present our IFS overnight analysis of yesterday’s Budget, starting with our opening remarks from Director @helenmiller.bsky.social:
🖥️ Watch live here: youtube.com/live/4WQAf3h...
❓ Ask questions here: app.sli.do/event/b1BMLx...
🖥️ Watch live here: youtube.com/live/4WQAf3h...
❓ Ask questions here: app.sli.do/event/b1BMLx...
Reposted by The Institute for Fiscal Studies
Some early takeaways on the public finances from us @theifs.bsky.social. Really interesting thing to me is that the much-anticipated productivity downgrade didn't end up creating that big an increase in forecast borrowing. This means the policies we've seen today have grown headroom substantially.
📈The OBR downgraded their productivity forecast, but higher inflation and wage growth meant higher forecast receipts overall.
However, additional spending pressures meant a £6bn hit to headroom in 2029-30 in the pre-measures forecast.
#Budget2025 public finances THREAD: [1/4]
However, additional spending pressures meant a £6bn hit to headroom in 2029-30 in the pre-measures forecast.
#Budget2025 public finances THREAD: [1/4]
November 26, 2025 at 4:22 PM
Some early takeaways on the public finances from us @theifs.bsky.social. Really interesting thing to me is that the much-anticipated productivity downgrade didn't end up creating that big an increase in forecast borrowing. This means the policies we've seen today have grown headroom substantially.
Join us tomorrow morning for our full initial analysis of Rachel Reeves' #Budget2025 at our online webinar, with presentations on the key policy decisions and a Q&A.
📅 Sign up for a reminder here: ifs.org.uk/events/autum...
📅 Sign up for a reminder here: ifs.org.uk/events/autum...
Autumn Budget 2025: IFS analysis | Institute for Fiscal Studies
At this online webinar IFS researchers present their initial response to Chancellor Rachel Reeves' Autumn Budget.
ifs.org.uk
November 26, 2025 at 5:13 PM
Join us tomorrow morning for our full initial analysis of Rachel Reeves' #Budget2025 at our online webinar, with presentations on the key policy decisions and a Q&A.
📅 Sign up for a reminder here: ifs.org.uk/events/autum...
📅 Sign up for a reminder here: ifs.org.uk/events/autum...
The tax threshold freezes announced today, alongside other direct tax reforms since 2021–22, mean that the current median earner will pay £900 more tax in 2030–31 compared to if there had been no reforms since 2021–22. An earner in the 90th percentile faces a £2,200 tax increase.
#Budget2025
#Budget2025
November 26, 2025 at 5:05 PM
The tax threshold freezes announced today, alongside other direct tax reforms since 2021–22, mean that the current median earner will pay £900 more tax in 2030–31 compared to if there had been no reforms since 2021–22. An earner in the 90th percentile faces a £2,200 tax increase.
#Budget2025
#Budget2025
Here's what the #Budget2025 means in 90 seconds, from IFS Director @helenmiller.bsky.social:
November 26, 2025 at 4:18 PM
Here's what the #Budget2025 means in 90 seconds, from IFS Director @helenmiller.bsky.social: