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Nick

@therealnick.bsky.social

3.9K followers 770 following 2.8K posts

Dad, Husband, Minister, pro science & common sense, Detroit sports junkie, politics, sarcastic, not a morning person, habitual line stepper, stay off my lawn, without me it’s just aweso. Senator Brian Schatz once reposted me

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Nick @therealnick.bsky.social · 7d

You can be universally liked or you can be authentic. You can’t be both

Nick @therealnick.bsky.social · 1h

I’ve reached the age where I appreciate a nice handrail

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Indivisible ❌👑 @indivisible.org · 15h

“No, Speaker Johnson — the No Kings rally on October 18 is not a hate America rally. In fact, it’s quite the contrary: It’s a love America rally.” #NoKings

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Nick @therealnick.bsky.social · 11h

This cold open has been the only funny part so far

TVLine @tvline.com · 11h

Amy Poehler teamed up with her old friend Tina Fey on 'SNL' this week to play Trump staffers Kristi Noem and Pam Bondi — watch video.

SNL Video: Tina Fey and Amy Poehler Play Kristi Noem and Pam Bondi as They Insult Senators and Defend Trump

Amy Poehler teamed up with her old friend Tina Fey on 'SNL' this week to play Trump staffers Kristi Noem and Pam Bondi — watch video.

tvline.com

Nick @therealnick.bsky.social · 12h

Going to be a long year for us Michigan fans. We are not that good

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Nick @therealnick.bsky.social · 15h

He has me rolling every video

Nick @therealnick.bsky.social · 15h

Paging the Michigan defense

Nick @therealnick.bsky.social · 15h

Oh my god😂 Perfection!

Brent Terhune @brentterhune.bsky.social · 1d

Circumcision Causes Autism?

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Reposted by Nick

Matthew Terrill @matthewterrill.bsky.social · 21h

I was already a hard AI-skeptic but this cements my long suspicion that there is no feasible path to anything close to return on invested capital for these data centers. Tech would need 15 to 25 times current AI revenues within the next 2-3 years just to break even. Not financially viable.

"I clearly hit a nerve in the industry, when judging by the number of individuals who reached out to chat," he wrote in an followup blog post. "In total, l've spoken with over two-dozen rather senior people in the datacenter universe, and there was an interesting and overriding theme to our conversations: no one understands how the financial math is supposed to work. They are as baffled as I am, and they do this for a living."
Kupperman's original skepticism was built on a guess that the components in an average Al data center would take ten years to depreciate, requiring costly replacements. That was bad enough: "I don't see how there can ever be any return on investment given the current math," he wrote at the time.
But ten years, he now understands, is way too generous.
" had previously assumed a 10-year depreciation curve, which I now recognize as quite unrealistic based upon the speed with which Al datacenter technology is advancing," Kupperman wrote. "Based on my conversations over the past month, the physical data centers last for three to ten years, at most."
In his previous analysis, Kupperman assumed it would take the tech industry $160 billion of revenue to break even on data center spending in 2025 alone. And that's assuming an incredibly generous 25 percent gross margin - not to mention the fact that the industry's actual Al revenue is closer to $20 billion annually, as the investment manager noted in his previous blog.

"In reality, the industry probably needs a revenue range that is closer to the $320 billion to $480 billion range, just to break even on the capex to be spent this year," Kupperman posited in his updated essay. "No wonder my new contacts in the industry shoulder a heavy burden - heavier than I could ever imagine. They know the truth."
Kupperman called that gulf between tech industry spending and actual revenue in 2025 "astonishing."
However, it doesn't even begin to scratch the surface. For example, how does it all shake out when we account for 2026, when hundreds of new data centers are expected to pop up?
"Adding the two years together, and using the math from my prior post, you'd need approximately $1 trillion in revenue to hit break even, and many trillions more to earn an acceptable return on this spend," he writes.
"If the economics don't work, doing it at massive scale doesn't make the economics work any better
- it just takes an industry crisis and makes it into a national economic crisis," he concludes.
Overall, the pessimists broadly agree: it's no longer a matter of if Al is massively overhyped, but when the whole thing comes crashing down.
More on Al hype: Data Shows That Al Use Is Now Declining at Large Companies

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Nick @therealnick.bsky.social · 18h

This whole administration is human garbage. Unreal

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Reposted by Nick

Acyn @acyn.bsky.social · 20h

Schatz: They’re stopping wind and solar because this guy has some very strange ideas about the energy mix. And it’s consistent with the rest of his political and economic philosophy — if there’s less of everything, it gives him more authority to dole out favors