Thomas Saalfeld

@thomas-saalfeld.bsky.social

270 followers 410 following 37 posts

Professor of Political Science and Vice President for Research, University of Bamberg. Posting exclusively in a personal capacity. Repostings do not always indicate agreement.

Videos

Political science 78%

Business 9%

Posts Replies Media Videos

Reposted by Thomas Saalfeld

Wahlumfragen • dawum.de @dawum.de · 5d

#Parteizustimmungsindex (#PZI): CDU/CSU: 28,3%, AfD: 23,4%, SPD: 15%, Grüne: 11,9%, Linke: 9,2%, BSW: 3,6%, FDP: 3,3% ➤ dawum.de#PZI | Der PZI setzt sich zusammen aus den nach Einwohnern gewichteten Umfragewerten für die Länder und aus dem zum Bundestag.

Reposted by Thomas Saalfeld

Election Maps UK @electionmaps.uk · 5d

Nowcast Update - Green's vote share surpasses Lib Dems, as Labour hits new low.

RFM: 350 (+345), 30.2% (50 Maj.)
LAB: 87 (-324), 18.8%
LDM: 75 (+3), 13.0%
SNP: 44 (+35), 2.7%
CON: 38 (-83), 17.6%
GRN: 23 (+19), 13.5%
PLC: 7 (+3), 1.1%
Oth: 7 (+2), 3.1%

electionmaps.uk/nowcast

Reposted by Thomas Saalfeld

UCL Constitution Unit @conunitucl.bsky.social · 8d

ON THE BLOG: Assessing the House of Commons Backbench Business Committee 15 years on

Unit Director Meg Russell and Hannah Kelly argue changes are needed to get back to the Wright Committee’s vision of it helping facilitate a more responsive and independent House of Commons.

Assessing the House of Commons Backbench Business Committee 15 years on

Unit Director Meg Russell and Hannah Kelly argue changes are needed to get back to the Wright Committee’s vision of it helping facilitate a more responsive and independent House of Commons.

constitution-unit.com

Jake Grumbach @jakemgrumbach.bsky.social · 8d

The Eric Schickler essay in Larry Bartel's symposium on "What Trump Has Taught Us About Political Science" is one of the most insightful pieces I've read in 2025.

US institutions turned out to be weak, and we have to rethink conventional wisdom.

open access: academic.oup.com/psq/advance-...

Reposted by Thomas Saalfeld

Minority Rights @minorityrightseu.bsky.social · 8d

Nearly 1 in 2 Muslims in the EU (47%) report they’ve experienced racism or discrimination in the past 5 years. 

Most victims are women wearing religious clothing, job‑seekers, and those born in the EU.

This report shows a sharp rise since 2016.

Read more: fra.europa.eu/en/publicati...

Being Muslim in the EU - Experiences of Muslims

fra.europa.eu

Reposted by Will Jennings, Thomas Saalfeld

G Elliott Morris @gelliottmorris.com · 8d

The Marist poll out today (Dems +14 in the U.S. House vote) is a huge outlier, but there has been clear movement to the left over the last month. The Democrats are up 4.4 in our average of generic ballot polls today, vs D+2.8 in mid-October.
fiftyplusone.news/polls/generi...

Reposted by Steffen Mau, Thomas Saalfeld, Ralf Michaels , and 3 more Steffen Mau, Thomas Saalfeld, Ralf Michaels, Philipp M. Lersch, Simon Munzert, Oliver Nachtwey

Heike Klüver @heikekluever.bsky.social · 9d

📣 New op-ed in Süddeutsche Zeitung: What the data say about the “Brandmauer”

I summarize key findings from a study with @anninahermes.bsky.social across 57 democracies

➡️ Far-right parties don’t get weaker in government, they get stronger (~6 points by the next election)

tinyurl.com/4j6jaud2

Demokratie: Wenn die Rechte mitregiert, wird sie nicht geschwächt – im Gegenteil

Eine Untersuchung von 57 Ländern zeigt: Wenn die Rechte in Verantwortung kommt, gewinnt sie dazu. Daraus lässt sich für Deutschland lernen.

www.sueddeutsche.de

Thomas Saalfeld @thomas-saalfeld.bsky.social · 11d

hopenothate.org.uk/reform-reque...

Who supports Reform UK and why? | Fed Up and rolling the dice

Our study of over 11,000 Reform UK voters is the largest and most extensive study into the party undertaken to date. We find that Reform UK is made of a coalition of voters, many with quite different ...

hopenothate.org.uk

Reposted by Thomas Saalfeld

Bamberg Graduate School of Social Sciences @bagss-bamberg.bsky.social · 18d

Our doctoral member @reppert-polsci.bsky.social has successfully completed his dissertation. In his Graduation Interview, he gives insights into the topic and findings of his dissertation, talks about his time at the BAGSS, and shares the next step in his career:

www.uni-bamberg.de/en/bagss/mag...

Thorsten Reppert Interview - BAMBERG GRADUATE SCHOOL OF SOCIAL SCIENCES

www.uni-bamberg.de

Reposted by Thomas Saalfeld

Roman Senninger @rsenninger.bsky.social · 20d

In an ongoing project, we ask which countries citizens prefer as benchmarks for policy decisions.

Pilot data from the UK show that Denmark is ranked as one of the most preferred reference countries, particularly in relation to migration policy.

Reposted by Thomas Saalfeld, Martin Kreidl, Claudia Landwehr

Heike Klüver @heikekluever.bsky.social · 21d

More and more young people are turning to the far right. Why and what can we do about it?

Join our #COVIDEU Workshop on Nov 21 (2–5 PM) to discuss causes and counter-strategies.

🚀 Hosted by @humboldt-govlab.bsky.social
💡 Funded by @volkswagenstiftung.de
👉 Register: tinyurl.com/bdenyfnw

Thomas Saalfeld @thomas-saalfeld.bsky.social · 23d

bbc.com/news/article...

What a UK government led by Reform would really look like

What the party's first six months at the helm at local level shows about how they govern - and whether they can keep their promises

bbc.com

Thomas Saalfeld @thomas-saalfeld.bsky.social · 24d

Verfassungsblog

Thomas Saalfeld @thomas-saalfeld.bsky.social · 24d

ettlo.r.sp1-brevo.net/mk/mr/sh/1t6...

Counting on You to Count on Us

ettlo.r.sp1-brevo.net

Thomas Saalfeld @thomas-saalfeld.bsky.social · 26d

www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...

Dutch voters have been seduced by positivity – liberals elsewhere, take note | Simon van Teutem

By selling hope alongside progressive patriotism, the centrist D66 party widened its appeal and beat the far right, says Dutch journalist Simon van Teutem

www.theguardian.com

Thomas Saalfeld @thomas-saalfeld.bsky.social · Oct 25

www.theguardian.com/politics/202...

Local election wipeout would see off Starmer, MPs say after Caerphilly rout

Crushing defeat in Welsh byelection triggers renewed outpouring of anger and concern within Labour

www.theguardian.com

Reposted by Thomas Saalfeld

Election Maps UK @electionmaps.uk · Oct 24

Westminster Voting Intention:

RFM: 32% (=)
CON: 17% (=)
LAB: 16% (+1)
GRN: 15% (=)
LDM: 12% (=)
SNP: 3% (=)

Via @findoutnow.bsky.social, 22 Oct.
Changes w/ 15 Oct.

Reposted by Claudia Landwehr

Thomas Saalfeld @thomas-saalfeld.bsky.social · Oct 3

R. I. P., Claus Offe, one of the great German social scientists of the post-war era. Here is the tribute of the Hertie School Berlin:
www.hertie-school.org/en/news/deta...

The Hertie School community mourns the passing of Professor Claus Offe

Offe was a distinguished political sociologist and a founding member of the Hertie School.

www.hertie-school.org

Thomas Saalfeld @thomas-saalfeld.bsky.social · Sep 26

Very sadly, John Groom passed away a week ago. My heart goes out to Antoinette, Anna and Helen.

www.bisa.ac.uk/news/memoria...

In memoriam: Professor A J R (‘John’) Groom

It is with sadness that we bring the news that former BISA Chair, Professor Groom has passed away.

www.bisa.ac.uk

Reposted by Michael E. Mann, Kim L. Scheppele, Jan W. Mueller , and 37 more Michael E. Mann, Kim L. Scheppele, Jan W. Mueller, Steven Heydemann, Rebecca Solnit, Richard S.J. Tol, Brendan Nyhan, Gavin A. Schmidt, Ken Caldeira, Scott L. Greer, Tom Shakespeare, Hugo Mercier, Mary Feeney, Rosemary A. Joyce, Thomas Saalfeld, Dirk Pilat, Jacob Montgomery, Johan P. Olsen, Robert Black, Jussi T. Eronen, Devon Greyson, Smith, Alan Richardson, Jacob T. Levy, Bessma Momani, Els Torreele, Samantha Brennan, Michael D. McDonald, Rain Liivoja, Glen O’Hara, Kai Gehring, Rosie Campbell, Andrew Rudalevige, Frederik Dhondt, Rebecca Zorach, Nancy M. Wingfield, Manisha Sinha, Aviel Roshwald, Maksym Polyakov, David Darmofal

Scott Horton @robertscotthorton.bsky.social · Sep 6

BREAKING: ICE is sending Russian dissidents back to Russia. When the dissidents arrived in Russia, the Russian authorities were given documents relating to their asylum applications in the US which under US law are confidential. This seems to be part of a secret agreement between Trump and Putin.

‘I escaped a Russian prison — only to end up in an American jail’

Dozens of Russian dissidents have been expelled from the US and forcibly returned to Russia with the co-operation of immigration authorities

www.thetimes.com

Reposted by Thomas Saalfeld, Lucas Leemann, Klaus H. Goetz , and 1 more Thomas Saalfeld, Lucas Leemann, Klaus H. Goetz, Tarik Abou‐Chadi

Markus Kollberg @markuskollberg.bsky.social · Sep 3

Returning from vacation and looking for a late summer read? @ivobantel.bsky.social and I got you covered!

In our new @wepsocial.bsky.social paper, we assess how mainstream parties rhetorically create an affect-based "common front" against the radical right.

www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....

Reposted by Thomas Saalfeld

Will Jennings📉🗳️ @drjennings.bsky.social · Sep 1

This incidentally is one of the reasons they are polling so poorly - they give people who are sympathetic to them little reason to support them.

Reposted by Thomas Saalfeld, Robert Huber

Politics Journal @politicsjournal.bsky.social · Sep 1

1/4. We're excited to announce the publication of: "How populist are ethnic minorities? Populist attitudes and voting for populist parties in the Netherlands", by Niels Spierings & Kristof Jacobs.
@polstudiesassoc.bsky.social
@sagepub.com

Thomas Saalfeld @thomas-saalfeld.bsky.social · Sep 1

www.theguardian.com/technology/2...

Science research gets more engagement on Bluesky than X, study finds

Bluesky posts referencing scholarly articles ‘find substantially higher levels of interaction’ than on Elon Musk’s platform

www.theguardian.com

Reposted by Jan W. Mueller, Thomas Saalfeld, Nils Gustafsson , and 1 more Jan W. Mueller, Thomas Saalfeld, Nils Gustafsson, Seth Frey

The New York Times @nytimes.com · Aug 30

The way that housing co-ops work in Switzerland may seem foreign to many. But the central idea is simple: What if homeownership had no profit motive and no capital gains? Advocates say their model could reshape how the world thinks about affordable housing. www.nytimes.com/2025/08/26/r...

An apartment complex. A headline reads: "Did Switzerland Solve The Housing Crisis?"

Reposted by Thomas Saalfeld

European Consortium for Political Research @ecpr.bsky.social · Aug 26

⭐ Let's Talk Methods TODAY @ #ecprgc25 ⭐

Join our Academic Convenors @sebastiankoehler.uk & Susana Salgado for a friendly, group-based session to find the right methods training path for you!

⏰ 11:30–12:15
📍 Room 4, Law Building
👇 Details buff.ly/xsjJ14M

Let's Talk Methods with the Methods School Academic Convenors

European Consortium for Political Research

buff.ly

Reposted by Thomas Saalfeld, Pietro Castelli Gattinara

ECPR SG Extremism & Democracy @ecpr-ead.bsky.social · Aug 22

🍿Do not miss our book panel at @ecpr.bsky.social General Conference celebrating these two important OUP publications by Paris Aslanidis and the dreamteam duo @pietrocastellig.bsky.social & @andreapirro.it.
🍰 Featuring commentary by @sldelange.bsky.social & @leoniedejonge.bsky.social.

Thomas Saalfeld @thomas-saalfeld.bsky.social · Aug 24

www.theguardian.com/lifeandstyle...

Edith Pritchett's Venn diagrams | The Guardian

<p>Cartoonist Edith Pritchett takes a circular look at how the week pans out</p>

www.theguardian.com

Reposted by Thomas Saalfeld

Stephen Gethins @stephengethins.bsky.social · Aug 23

With Brexit, HS2, the Rwanda scheme and more Westminster is easily the most wasteful layer of Government in the UK. Over the past year alone blowing almost double the Scottish Government’s entire annual budget - www.scotsman.com/news/opinion...