Consumer sentiment held steady in October at 55.0, with inflation expectations easing slightly. The Michigan survey shows little sign that the shutdown has shifted views yet. My take: stability here feels more like uncertainty than optimism as Americans wait for clearer signals. #econsky

The U.S. Treasury just opened a $20 billion currency swap with Argentina and began buying pesos to stabilize its exchange rate. My take is that this is less about aid and more about containment. Confidence management has become the new frontier of global economic policy. #econsky

Retailers stocked up early to beat new tariffs, but apparel spending is down nearly 4 percent. My take is that this holiday season feels more cautious than celebratory. Confidence is still there, but it is careful. #econsky

Consumer borrowing barely grew in August, rising $0.36B in the slowest pace in six months. Credit card balances fell while auto and student loans edged higher. With savings fading and rates near 23 percent, Americans may finally be slowing down. My take: confidence is starting to crack. #econsky

Gold just hit $4,000 an ounce. My take is that this isn’t about inflation, it’s about confidence. When the government shuts down and stability feels uncertain, people reach for something that feels permanent. Gold isn’t safe, but it feels safe, and that feeling moves markets.

Fifth Third is buying Comerica in a $10.9 billion all-stock deal, creating the ninth-largest U.S. bank. My take: this isn’t just another merger, it’s a confidence signal that big deals are back and that usually means corporate America thinks the cycle is turning. #Economy #Banking #ConsumerBehavior

US ISM Services PMI came in at 50. Business activity contracted for the first time since 2020 and prices remain elevated. My take: the services cushion that carried growth is slipping, leaving the economy more fragile heading into year-end.

#USEconomy #ServicesPMI #EconomicOutlook

Swiftonomics returns at midnight.

With government data paused, the economic story tonight is Taylor Swift. Her Eras Tour boosted GDP in cities and even countries. Now Target and AMC turn fandom into real spend. My take: culture can be a precise real-time read on discretionary demand.

All hail Chunk, the champion of Fat Bear Week 2025. At over 1,200 pounds he overcame a broken jaw, reasserted his place on the river, and proved that adaptability can be just as powerful as size. This year’s contest drew 1.6 million votes, the fattest year yet. #FatBearWeek #Alaska #Chunk

ADP reports private employers cut 32,000 jobs in September.
Small and mid-sized firms shed workers, while only large companies added jobs.

With the gov shutdown delaying official BLS data, this may be the clearest jobs signal we get for now.

#JobsReport #LaborMarket

US consumer confidence fell to 94.2, the lowest since April. Views of current conditions slid, expectations stayed in recession territory, and job worries rose. As Q4 begins, households are growing more selective, forcing businesses to sharpen value and strategy.

#ConsumerTrends #EconomicInsights

Nope.

Now on Bluesky.

I’m Thomas J Thompson (Tom), Chief Economist at Havas Edge and Entrepreneur-in-Residence with Harvard. I’m here for respectful conversations (and maybe the snacks). Expect thoughts on the economy, consumer behavior, marketing, and why every chart seems to deliver its own plot twist.