US Inflation Slows as Falling Energy Prices Help Cool Headline CPI The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that consumer prices rose 2.4 percent over the past year in January, slightly below expectat...

US Jobless Claims Settle Back but More Workers Remain on Benefits The U.S. Department of Labor reported that initial jobless claims came in at 227,000 for the latest week, down from last week’s revis...

Jobs Surge in January, but Massive Revisions Reveal a Much Weaker 2025 The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released the January Employment Situation report this morning, and the headline numbers came...

U.S. Holiday Retail Sales Miss Expectations as December Spending Stalls The U.S. Census Bureau released its Advance Monthly Retail and Food Services report this morning, showing that retail sales wer...

Super Bowl Consumer Spending Crossed 20 Billion Dollars I went to a Super Bowl party last night, and the table was covered in wings, chips, dips, pizza, and drinks. There were a few friendly bets bei...

Americans relied heavily on credit cards to close out 2025 The Federal Reserve Board released its December consumer credit report this afternoon, providing a final look at how U.S. households finance...

Consumer Sentiment Rises to Six Month High as Inflation Expectations Fall Preliminary February data showed consumer sentiment beating expectations and climbing to its highest level in six months, hel...

Weekly Jobless Claims Jump Above Expectations The U.S. Department of Labor reported that initial jobless claims rose to 231,000 for the week ending January 31, an increase of 22,000 from the prior we...

ADP Shows Jobs Rose in January, but Hiring Slowed Sharply With December JOLTS still unavailable and January BLS data delayed, today’s ADP report offers the clearest current view of labor market condi...

Walmart Tops $1 Trillion in Market Value for First Time Ever Walmart crossed a $1 trillion market capitalization this week for the first time in its history. That may sound surprising only because ma...

U.S. Manufacturing Shows Its Strongest Turn Since 2022 This morning’s manufacturing data showed a sharp and unexpected improvement in activity. S&P Global’s Manufacturing PMI rose to 52.4 in January...

Trump Taps Career Economist to Lead U.S. Labor Data Agency According to the The Wall Street Journal, President Trump plans to nominate Brett Matsumoto, a longtime Bureau of Labor Statistics economist...

Producer Prices Came in Hotter Than Expected in December The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released the December Producer Price Index this morning, showing producer prices came in hotter than expec...

Jobless Claims Point to a Labor Market Holding Its Shape The U.S. Department of Labor released its weekly jobless claims report this morning, offering the most timely snapshot of layoffs, job transit...

Fed Holds Rates Steady as Officials Signal Greater Comfort With the Outlook The Federal Reserve, which sets U.S. monetary policy to support stable prices and maximum employment, held interest rates s...

U.S. Consumer Confidence Drops Sharply as Participation Risk Rises Consumer confidence is not a measure of how happy people feel. It reflects whether households feel secure enough to participate in t...

Fed Rate Decision Due Wednesday as Officials Weigh Options The Federal Reserve Board meets this week with markets focused less on whether rates move and more on what the decision signals about the ec...

U.S. Durable Goods Orders Rise by the Most in Six Months Durable goods orders are reported monthly by the U.S. Census Bureau and measure new orders placed with U.S. manufacturers for goods designed ...

U.S. Consumer Sentiment Rises to a Five-Month High as Confidence Broadens Consumer sentiment is not a measure of how happy people feel. It is a measure of whether households feel comfortable particip...

Consumer Spending Is Still Outpacing Income Growth Yesterday, the Bureau of Economic Analysis released its Personal Income and Outlays report for November, one of the most comprehensive and closely w...

Jobless Claims Remain Contained as Layoff Pressures Stay Muted The U.S. Department of Labor released its weekly jobless claims report this morning, one of the most timely indicators of labor market stress. The report tracks new filings for unemployment benefits and the number of people who remain on benefits, helping identify whether layoffs are accelerating or remaining contained. For the week ended January 17, initial jobless claims totaled 200 thousand. That was slightly higher than the prior week’s revised level of 199 thousand but well below economist expectations of roughly 209 thousand. The four week moving average declined to 201,500, the lowest level since early 2024, reinforcing that layoffs remain limited. Weekly claims data always requires context. These figures are volatile, frequently revised, and influenced by seasonal and administrative factors, particularly around holidays. For that reason, economists place more weight on trend measures and inflection points than on any single print. By that standard, today’s report does not indicate rising labor market stress. Continuing jobless claims provide a complementary perspective. The number of people receiving ongoing unemployment benefits declined to 1.85 million, the lowest level since November. This suggests that prolonged unemployment is not widening, even as hiring remains cautious and selective. It is important to be precise about what jobless claims measure and what they do not. Claims track layoffs and benefit duration. They do not measure hiring momentum, job openings, wage growth, hours worked, or overall labor demand. A labor market can show low claims even as hiring slows or freezes. That distinction is exactly why claims remain useful. They are not a growth indicator. They function as an early warning system. When claims rise meaningfully and persistently, it often marks the point when labor market cooling turns into broader economic stress. When claims remain contained, it suggests firms are protecting existing employment even as they remain cautious about expanding headcount. This dynamic helps explain why labor market conditions can feel mixed. Employment is being preserved, but momentum is limited. That combination reduces near term downside risk tied to income loss while also constraining upside in confidence and discretionary spending. Havas Edge tracks jobless claims every week not to declare strength, but to monitor whether labor market cooling is turning into labor market stress, a shift that tends to show up here before it appears in spending, demand, and performance data.

Pending Home Sales Fell Hard in December The National Association of REALTORS® released its December Pending Home Sales report this morning, and the headline drop was sharp. Pending sales fell 9.3 p...

Netflix Beats Earnings as the Market Focus Shifts From Growth to Structure Netflix reported earnings today that exceeded expectations, delivering solid revenue and profitability despite a broadly risk-off market. It also reported that subscribers grew nearly 8% over the past year, pushing its global base above 325 million. Under normal circumstances, that combination would define the story. Today, it didn’t. Instead, the earnings print landed amid a deliberate reframing of how Netflix wants to be evaluated. Alongside the results, the company reaffirmed its revised all-cash offer to acquire Warner Bros. Discovery’s streaming and studio assets at $27.75 per share, replacing its earlier cash-and-stock proposal. At the same time, Netflix has stepped back from emphasizing subscriber metrics in its regular disclosures, signaling a shift toward more traditional financial measures. That context matters. Subscriber growth remains strong, but Netflix is increasingly treating scale as a given rather than the primary driver of valuation. The focus is moving toward how efficiently that scale translates into revenue, margins, and cash generation. Today’s earnings supported that pivot, even as subscriber growth continues to add to the platform’s strategic leverage. The Warner Bros. bid reinforces the message. By moving to an all-cash structure, Netflix is prioritizing certainty and execution at a moment when markets are penalizing complexity and volatility. This contrasts with Paramount Skydance’s higher all-cash offer for the entire Warner Bros. Discovery business, including legacy cable assets that are slated to be spun off separately. The competing bids highlight a broader divide between focused asset acquisition and more expansive, risk-laden consolidation. What made this earnings release notable is that Netflix delivered across both dimensions. Subscriber growth remains intact, but the company is clearly signaling that future value creation will be judged less on how many users it adds and more on how it allocates capital and sustains profitability at scale. Havas Edge tracks moments like this because shifts in how companies frame success often precede changes in investor behavior, capital flows, and the media ecosystem brands ultimately operate within.

Supreme Court Tariff Delay Leaves Trade Policy in Limbo The Supreme Court’s decision today not to rule on the legality of the administration’s emergency tariffs is a significant economic development,...

2026 World Economic Forum Kicks Off in Davos The 2026 World Economic Forum Annual Meeting begins today in Davos-Klosters, Switzerland, running from January 19 through January 23. Each year, the forum...