Thomas J Thompson
@thomasjthompson.bsky.social
Chief Economist at Havas Edge, Entrepreneur-in-Residence with Harvard. Exploring how consumers really behave, and why charts keep nudging us toward a plot twist.
Job openings fell in November, but layoffs declined and quits rose. My take is the labor market is cooling through fewer openings, not job losses. Employers are cautious, workers with leverage still have it, and confidence cools heading into 2026. #econsky
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Job Openings Fell but Layoffs Stayed Low and Quits Rose
Job openings edged lower in November but layoffs declined and quits increased a combination that suggests a labor market cooling on paper… | Th...
Job Openings Fell but Layoffs Stayed Low and Quits Rose
Job openings edged lower in November but layoffs declined and quits increased a combination that suggests a labor market cooling on paper while...
www.linkedin.com
January 7, 2026 at 3:14 PM
Job openings fell in November, but layoffs declined and quits rose. My take is the labor market is cooling through fewer openings, not job losses. Employers are cautious, workers with leverage still have it, and confidence cools heading into 2026. #econsky
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www.linkedin.com/posts/thomas...
Services PMI eased to 52.5 in December. My take is services are still growing, but momentum is cooling as costs rise. Firms are cautious on hiring and leaning on pricing. Growth persists, but with less margin heading into 2026. #econsky
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www.linkedin.com/posts/thomas...
US Services Growth Slows as Cost Pressures Re-Emerge
The December Services PMI showed that growth in the largest part of the U.S. economy slowed at year-end, offering an early signal that momentum… |...
US Services Growth Slows as Cost Pressures Re-Emerge
The December Services PMI showed that growth in the largest part of the U.S. economy slowed at year-end, offering an early signal that momentum is...
www.linkedin.com
January 6, 2026 at 3:24 PM
Services PMI eased to 52.5 in December. My take is services are still growing, but momentum is cooling as costs rise. Firms are cautious on hiring and leaning on pricing. Growth persists, but with less margin heading into 2026. #econsky
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www.linkedin.com/posts/thomas...
Manufacturing PMI fell to 47.9 in December lowest reading of 2025 and firmly in contraction. My take is factories are still producing, but demand remains soft. Firms are cautious, managing headcount and inventories. Manufacturing looks like drag into 2026. #econsky
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www.linkedin.com/posts/thomas...
US Manufacturing Weakness Deepens as ISM PMI Falls to One-Year Low
The Institute for Supply Management released its December 2025 Manufacturing PMI this morning, offering one of the clearest monthly…...
US Manufacturing Weakness Deepens as ISM PMI Falls to One-Year Low
The Institute for Supply Management released its December 2025 Manufacturing PMI this morning, offering one of the clearest monthly ...
www.linkedin.com
January 5, 2026 at 3:25 PM
Manufacturing PMI fell to 47.9 in December lowest reading of 2025 and firmly in contraction. My take is factories are still producing, but demand remains soft. Firms are cautious, managing headcount and inventories. Manufacturing looks like drag into 2026. #econsky
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www.linkedin.com/posts/thomas...
Manufacturing PMI eased to 51.8 in December, matching expectations. My take is factories are still expanding, but demand is losing momentum. Production holds, orders soften, and growth feels cautious rather than fragile. That sets a measured tone for 2026. #econsky
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www.linkedin.com/posts/thomas...
Manufacturing PMI Slows as 2026 Gets Underway
One of the first economic signals shaping expectations for 2026 arrived this morning with the release of the December Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’…...
Manufacturing PMI Slows as 2026 Gets Underway
One of the first economic signals shaping expectations for 2026 arrived this morning with the release of the December Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ ...
www.linkedin.com
January 2, 2026 at 2:55 PM
Manufacturing PMI eased to 51.8 in December, matching expectations. My take is factories are still expanding, but demand is losing momentum. Production holds, orders soften, and growth feels cautious rather than fragile. That sets a measured tone for 2026. #econsky
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www.linkedin.com/posts/thomas...
Reposted by Thomas J Thompson
Economic headwinds squeeze household playbooks #econsky
For a growing swath of US households, economic pressures have hit like a punishingly stiff wind.
Many Americans are heading into 2026 worse off, and their financial game plans have shifted. https://cnn.it/4aDHtoj
Many Americans are heading into 2026 worse off, and their financial game plans have shifted. https://cnn.it/4aDHtoj
December 31, 2025 at 3:51 PM
Economic headwinds squeeze household playbooks #econsky
Jobless claims fell again, pointing to fewer layoffs, while hiring remains subdued. My take is the labor market is cooling through slower churn, not job losses. That keeps spending steady while confidence stays cautious. #econsky
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www.linkedin.com/posts/thomas...
Jobless Claims Fall Further Pointing to Fewer Layoffs and Slower Hiring
The U.S. Department of Labor released its weekly jobless claims report this morning, offering one of the most timely reads on… ...
Jobless Claims Fall Further Pointing to Fewer Layoffs and Slower Hiring
The U.S. Department of Labor released its weekly jobless claims report this morning, offering one of the most timely reads on l...
www.linkedin.com
December 31, 2025 at 2:14 PM
Jobless claims fell again, pointing to fewer layoffs, while hiring remains subdued. My take is the labor market is cooling through slower churn, not job losses. That keeps spending steady while confidence stays cautious. #econsky
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www.linkedin.com/posts/thomas...
Home price data show housing stabilizing, not accelerating. FHFA and Case-Shiller point to flat real prices as buyers re-enter selectively. My take is housing is shifting from drag to stabilizer. Affordability improves at the margin. #econsky
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www.linkedin.com/posts/thomas...
Home Prices Are Holding Steady as Housing Adjusts
U.S. home price data for October point to a housing market that is settling into a slower, more stable phase. Two widely followed price measures… | T...
Home Prices Are Holding Steady as Housing Adjusts
U.S. home price data for October point to a housing market that is settling into a slower, more stable phase. Two widely followed price measures rele...
www.linkedin.com
December 30, 2025 at 6:10 PM
Home price data show housing stabilizing, not accelerating. FHFA and Case-Shiller point to flat real prices as buyers re-enter selectively. My take is housing is shifting from drag to stabilizer. Affordability improves at the margin. #econsky
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www.linkedin.com/posts/thomas...
Pending home sales surged 3.3% in November, far above expectations. My take is buyers are adapting, not retreating. With rates stabilizing, households are recalibrating and moving forward even as confidence stays cautious. #econsky
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www.linkedin.com/posts/thomas...
Pending Home Sales Deliver a Major Upside Surprise
The National Association of REALTORS® released its Pending Home Sales Report this morning, offering one of the most forward-looking reads on U.S… | ...
Pending Home Sales Deliver a Major Upside Surprise
The National Association of REALTORS® released its Pending Home Sales Report this morning, offering one of the most forward-looking reads on U.S. ho...
www.linkedin.com
December 29, 2025 at 3:13 PM
Pending home sales surged 3.3% in November, far above expectations. My take is buyers are adapting, not retreating. With rates stabilizing, households are recalibrating and moving forward even as confidence stays cautious. #econsky
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www.linkedin.com/posts/thomas...
Activist investors are circling Target after a prolonged stretch of weak sales. My take is this isn’t about a single retailer, but about what happens when discretionary spending slows and patience runs out. Value assets attract pressure when growth stalls. #econsky
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www.linkedin.com/posts/thomas...
Activist Investors Are Turning Their Attention to Target
Activist investor pressure is building around Target after reports that hedge fund Toms Capital Investment Management (not me) has built a… | ...
Activist Investors Are Turning Their Attention to Target
Activist investor pressure is building around Target after reports that hedge fund Toms Capital Investment Management (not me) has built a sta...
www.linkedin.com
December 26, 2025 at 6:31 PM
Activist investors are circling Target after a prolonged stretch of weak sales. My take is this isn’t about a single retailer, but about what happens when discretionary spending slows and patience runs out. Value assets attract pressure when growth stalls. #econsky
www.linkedin.com/posts/thomas...
www.linkedin.com/posts/thomas...
Jobless claims fell, signaling fewer layoffs, while continuing claims rose, pointing to slower reemployment. My take is the labor market is cooling through duration, not job losses. #econsky
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www.linkedin.com/posts/thomas...
Jobless Claims Show Fewer Layoffs but Slower Reemployment
The U.S. Department of Labor released its weekly jobless claims report this morning, offering one of the most timely reads on labor market… |...
Jobless Claims Show Fewer Layoffs but Slower Reemployment
The U.S. Department of Labor released its weekly jobless claims report this morning, offering one of the most timely reads on labor market co...
www.linkedin.com
December 24, 2025 at 1:48 PM
Jobless claims fell, signaling fewer layoffs, while continuing claims rose, pointing to slower reemployment. My take is the labor market is cooling through duration, not job losses. #econsky
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www.linkedin.com/posts/thomas...
US consumer confidence fell for a fifth straight month, missing expectations even as recent GDP growth surprised to the upside. My take is households are still spending, but doing so carefully. The economy keeps moving, but confidence is constrained. #econsky
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www.linkedin.com/posts/thomas...
Consumer Confidence Slips Again as Household Strain Persists
This morning’s Conference Board Consumer Confidence report delivered a more consequential signal than the headline decline alone… | Thoma...
Consumer Confidence Slips Again as Household Strain Persists
This morning’s Conference Board Consumer Confidence report delivered a more consequential signal than the headline decline alone suggests...
www.linkedin.com
December 23, 2025 at 3:17 PM
US consumer confidence fell for a fifth straight month, missing expectations even as recent GDP growth surprised to the upside. My take is households are still spending, but doing so carefully. The economy keeps moving, but confidence is constrained. #econsky
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www.linkedin.com/posts/thomas...
US GDP surged to its fastest pace in two years, blowing past expectations. My take is the economy still has real momentum, but inflation staying sticky complicates the Fed’s next move. Growth feels solid, confidence remains cautious. #econsky
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www.linkedin.com/posts/thomas...
US GDP Accelerates to Fastest Pace in Two Years and Surges Past Expectations
This morning, the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis released its initial estimate of third-quarter economic growth… | Thoma...
US GDP Accelerates to Fastest Pace in Two Years and Surges Past Expectations
This morning, the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis released its initial estimate of third-quarter economic growth, showing...
www.linkedin.com
December 23, 2025 at 1:41 PM
US GDP surged to its fastest pace in two years, blowing past expectations. My take is the economy still has real momentum, but inflation staying sticky complicates the Fed’s next move. Growth feels solid, confidence remains cautious. #econsky
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www.linkedin.com/posts/thomas...
Chiefs moving from Missouri to Kansas won’t change the regional economy. Kansas City spans two states. My take is that stadium subsidies persist because emotion overrides economics. Civic pride fills the gap where returns never appear. #econsky
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www.linkedin.com/posts/thomas...
Chiefs Move to Kansas After Stadium Funding Is Approved
Full disclosure that I am a Kansas City Chiefs season ticket holder and have been a Chiefs fan my entire life, having grown up in Kansas. That…...
Chiefs Move to Kansas After Stadium Funding Is Approved
Full disclosure that I am a Kansas City Chiefs season ticket holder and have been a Chiefs fan my entire life, having grown up in Kansas. That ...
www.linkedin.com
December 22, 2025 at 8:30 PM
Chiefs moving from Missouri to Kansas won’t change the regional economy. Kansas City spans two states. My take is that stadium subsidies persist because emotion overrides economics. Civic pride fills the gap where returns never appear. #econsky
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www.linkedin.com/posts/thomas...
Consumer sentiment edged higher but confidence remains deeply constrained. My take is that households feel squeezed today yet less fearful about the future, which keeps spending alive but selective. The emotional and real economies are still out of sync. #econsky
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www.linkedin.com/posts/thomas...
Consumer Sentiment Improves Slightly but Remains Deeply Constrained
This morning’s final University of Michigan consumer sentiment report delivered a modest improvement, but it did little to alter… |...
Consumer Sentiment Improves Slightly but Remains Deeply Constrained
This morning’s final University of Michigan consumer sentiment report delivered a modest improvement, but it did little to alter th...
www.linkedin.com
December 19, 2025 at 4:21 PM
Consumer sentiment edged higher but confidence remains deeply constrained. My take is that households feel squeezed today yet less fearful about the future, which keeps spending alive but selective. The emotional and real economies are still out of sync. #econsky
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www.linkedin.com/posts/thomas...
Existing home sales rose again, but housing still lacks momentum. Buyers are active, not urgent, as rates remain elevated. My take is that this reflects a selective consumer, not a weak one. #econsky
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www.linkedin.com/posts/thomas...
Existing Home Sales Rise as Housing Signals Stability Without Momentum
This morning’s Existing Home Sales report offers one of the clearest near-time reads on the U.S. economy right now, arriving as…...
Existing Home Sales Rise as Housing Signals Stability Without Momentum
This morning’s Existing Home Sales report offers one of the clearest near-time reads on the U.S. economy right now, arriving as ...
www.linkedin.com
December 19, 2025 at 3:05 PM
Existing home sales rose again, but housing still lacks momentum. Buyers are active, not urgent, as rates remain elevated. My take is that this reflects a selective consumer, not a weak one. #econsky
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www.linkedin.com/posts/thomas...
Inflation cooled sharply with core CPI at its slowest pace since 2021. My take is this eases pressure on the Fed but won’t immediately lift confidence. Prices feel high in level terms, so households stay cautious even as markets celebrate. #econsky
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www.linkedin.com/posts/thomas...
Inflation Slows Faster Than Expected as Core Price Pressures Cool Sharply
November’s inflation report delivered a decisive downside surprise and a clear shift in the inflation narrative. Core… | Thom...
Inflation Slows Faster Than Expected as Core Price Pressures Cool Sharply
November’s inflation report delivered a decisive downside surprise and a clear shift in the inflation narrative. Core consume...
www.linkedin.com
December 18, 2025 at 1:46 PM
Inflation cooled sharply with core CPI at its slowest pace since 2021. My take is this eases pressure on the Fed but won’t immediately lift confidence. Prices feel high in level terms, so households stay cautious even as markets celebrate. #econsky
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www.linkedin.com/posts/thomas...
Jobless claims were mixed. Fewer new layoffs, but more people staying unemployed. My take is the labor market is cooling through friction, not collapse. Sentiment stays soft even as behavior holds. #econsky
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www.linkedin.com/posts/thomas...
Jobless Claims Point to a Labor Market Cooling Without Breaking
This morning’s jobless claims report delivered a mixed but important signal about the U.S. labor market, showing fewer new layoffs… | T...
Jobless Claims Point to a Labor Market Cooling Without Breaking
This morning’s jobless claims report delivered a mixed but important signal about the U.S. labor market, showing fewer new layoffs alon...
www.linkedin.com
December 18, 2025 at 1:39 PM
Jobless claims were mixed. Fewer new layoffs, but more people staying unemployed. My take is the labor market is cooling through friction, not collapse. Sentiment stays soft even as behavior holds. #econsky
www.linkedin.com/posts/thomas...
www.linkedin.com/posts/thomas...
Housing may look more affordable in 2026. My take is that affordability improves on paper, not in lived experience. High rates keep mobility low and confidence fragile. The market heals slowly, not all at once. #econsky
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www.linkedin.com/posts/thomas...
Housing May Get “More Affordable” in 2026, But That Does Not Mean Easier
There is a growing narrative that the US housing market will become more affordable in 2026. In narrow economic terms, that… |...
Housing May Get “More Affordable” in 2026, But That Does Not Mean Easier
There is a growing narrative that the US housing market will become more affordable in 2026. In narrow economic terms, that ar...
www.linkedin.com
December 17, 2025 at 3:14 PM
Housing may look more affordable in 2026. My take is that affordability improves on paper, not in lived experience. High rates keep mobility low and confidence fragile. The market heals slowly, not all at once. #econsky
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www.linkedin.com/posts/thomas...
US retail sales were flat in October as auto and gas spending fell, but core control-group sales jumped. My take This shows consumers are still spending, just reallocating toward essentials and value as job anxiety rises. #econsky
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www.linkedin.com/posts/thomas...
US Retail Sales Flat in October as Consumer Spending Becomes More Selective
The Commerce Department’s delayed October retail sales report showed consumer spending essentially stalled, with total… | T...
US Retail Sales Flat in October as Consumer Spending Becomes More Selective
The Commerce Department’s delayed October retail sales report showed consumer spending essentially stalled, with total sale...
www.linkedin.com
December 16, 2025 at 2:11 PM
US retail sales were flat in October as auto and gas spending fell, but core control-group sales jumped. My take This shows consumers are still spending, just reallocating toward essentials and value as job anxiety rises. #econsky
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www.linkedin.com/posts/thomas...
US payrolls rose 64k in November while unemployment climbed to 4.6% as more people reentered the labor force. My take This is cooling without collapse and keeps the Fed leaning toward cuts next year if the trend holds. #econsky
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www.linkedin.com/posts/thomas...
US Payrolls Rise in November as Unemployment Ticks Higher
US job growth stabilized modestly in November, but the labor market continues to cool in a way that feels more structural than cyclical… | T...
US Payrolls Rise in November as Unemployment Ticks Higher
US job growth stabilized modestly in November, but the labor market continues to cool in a way that feels more structural than cyclical. Non...
www.linkedin.com
December 16, 2025 at 1:49 PM
US payrolls rose 64k in November while unemployment climbed to 4.6% as more people reentered the labor force. My take This is cooling without collapse and keeps the Fed leaning toward cuts next year if the trend holds. #econsky
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www.linkedin.com/posts/thomas...
PayPal applied to become a U.S. bank to take insured deposits and expand lending. My take This is about controlling funding as credit stays tight, and it signals a deeper shift in how fintechs may reshape small-business finance. #econsky
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www.linkedin.com/posts/thomas...
PayPal Applies to Become a Bank as US Loosens Regulatory Reins | Thomas J Thompson
PayPal Applies to Become a Bank as Fintech Push Accelerates
PayPal disclosed today that it has applied to become a U.S. bank, submitting applications to the FDIC and the Utah Department of Financial ...
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December 15, 2025 at 10:34 PM
PayPal applied to become a U.S. bank to take insured deposits and expand lending. My take This is about controlling funding as credit stays tight, and it signals a deeper shift in how fintechs may reshape small-business finance. #econsky
www.linkedin.com/posts/thomas...
www.linkedin.com/posts/thomas...
Homebuilder sentiment edged up, but incentives are doing the work, not demand. My take is this is stabilization without acceleration as affordability keeps housing activity constrained. #econsky
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www.linkedin.com/posts/thomas...
US Homebuilder Sentiment Edges Up
The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) released its December Housing Market Index this morning, showing a modest improvement in sentiment as the index… | T...
US Homebuilder Sentiment Edges Up
The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) released its December Housing Market Index this morning, showing a modest improvement in sentiment as the index rose...
www.linkedin.com
December 15, 2025 at 3:16 PM
Homebuilder sentiment edged up, but incentives are doing the work, not demand. My take is this is stabilization without acceleration as affordability keeps housing activity constrained. #econsky
www.linkedin.com/posts/thomas...
www.linkedin.com/posts/thomas...
High-propensity business applications rose sharply in November, signaling new businesses forming with intent to hire even as layoffs rise at the margin. My take is this supports a cooling but still resilient labor market. #econsky
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www.linkedin.com/posts/thomas...
A Quiet Business Formation Signal Adds a New Layer to the Labor Market Story
A relatively quiet economic indicator moved sharply higher in November, adding an important layer to how we should think… ...
A Quiet Business Formation Signal Adds a New Layer to the Labor Market Story
A relatively quiet economic indicator moved sharply higher in November, adding an important layer to how we should think a...
www.linkedin.com
December 12, 2025 at 10:43 PM
High-propensity business applications rose sharply in November, signaling new businesses forming with intent to hire even as layoffs rise at the margin. My take is this supports a cooling but still resilient labor market. #econsky
www.linkedin.com/posts/thomas...
www.linkedin.com/posts/thomas...
Jobless claims up, continuing claims down. My take is that people fear losing a job but still believe they can find one. Low sentiment, steady behavior. The emotional and real economies keep drifting apart. #econsky
www.linkedin.com/posts/thomas...
www.linkedin.com/posts/thomas...
Jobless Claims Jump but Continuing Claims Fall
The latest unemployment insurance data delivered a surprising split less than a day after the Federal Reserve pointed to cooling labor conditions as… |...
Jobless Claims Jump but Continuing Claims Fall
The latest unemployment insurance data delivered a surprising split less than a day after the Federal Reserve pointed to cooling labor conditions as pa...
www.linkedin.com
December 11, 2025 at 1:42 PM
Jobless claims up, continuing claims down. My take is that people fear losing a job but still believe they can find one. Low sentiment, steady behavior. The emotional and real economies keep drifting apart. #econsky
www.linkedin.com/posts/thomas...
www.linkedin.com/posts/thomas...
Wage growth just slowed to a four-year low. The labor market is cooling and my take is that this gives the Fed more room while pushing consumers toward value. #econsky
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www.linkedin.com/posts/thomas...
US Employment Costs Rise at the Slowest Pace in Four Years
The Bureau of Labor Statistics released the September Employment Cost Index this morning, offering the first complete look at compensation… ...
US Employment Costs Rise at the Slowest Pace in Four Years
The Bureau of Labor Statistics released the September Employment Cost Index this morning, offering the first complete look at compensation t...
www.linkedin.com
December 10, 2025 at 3:04 PM
Wage growth just slowed to a four-year low. The labor market is cooling and my take is that this gives the Fed more room while pushing consumers toward value. #econsky
www.linkedin.com/posts/thomas...
www.linkedin.com/posts/thomas...