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Tim Dowse

@timdowse.bsky.social

680 followers 480 following 1.1K posts

Consultant, after 40 years with FCO, Cabinet Office, HM Treasury. Specialties: national security, defence, geopolitical analysis.

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Tim Dowse @timdowse.bsky.social · 20h

Quite. This entire story seems a completely artificial concoction. (Rather like the BBC’s attempt to find a dubious connection between Tony Blair and Epstein.)

Tim Dowse @timdowse.bsky.social · 5d

I think the days are gone when a state could “quietly assemble forces” to launch a surprise conventional attack on a militarily sophisticated neighbour. Prep for the 2022 invasion of Ukraine was seen well in advance.

“Little green men” might be another thing. But they aren’t the threat to NATO.

Tim Dowse @timdowse.bsky.social · 5d

The evidence for some time has indicated Putin’s appetite for risk is considerably higher than that of most Western leaders. Way back in 2015 the GRU launched a [false flag] cyberattack on a French channel, TV5Monde, *when Russia was seeking French and German support to get EU sanctions lifted*.

Tim Dowse @timdowse.bsky.social · 7d

I'm reminded that I got this wrong: the cost-sharing agreement related to BBC Monitoring, not the World Service. Similar issues though.

Tim Dowse @timdowse.bsky.social · 9d

The arguments over World Service funding have gone on for a quarter of a century at least. There used to be an interdepartmental cost-sharing arrangement that broke down around the year 2000 when the MOD pulled out. The BBC themselves have always refused to consider taking advertising.

Tim Dowse @timdowse.bsky.social · 9d

The arguments over World Service funding have gone on for a quarter of a century at least. There used to be an interdepartmental cost-sharing arrangement that broke down around the year 2000 when the MOD pulled out. The BBC themselves have always refused to consider taking advertising.

Tim Dowse @timdowse.bsky.social · 9d

It led to endless grief with foreign governments who regularly objected to BBC reports about them and couldn't believe HMG funded a service over which it had no editorial control.

Tim Dowse @timdowse.bsky.social · 11d

I was wrong - it turns out to be available online (for free).

Tim Dowse @timdowse.bsky.social · 11d

OK, thanks. That looks like a challenge to track down!

Tim Dowse @timdowse.bsky.social · 12d

Strongly agree about Descent to Suez - a very good (and depressing) read. I haven't read Eveland.

Tim Dowse @timdowse.bsky.social · 12d

I recently looked at Scott Lucas’ collection of documents “Britain and Suez: The Lion’s Last Roar”. I like the way he uses US papers as well as British ones.

Is there a good account from official records of the French side of the story? I’m not aware of one.

Tim Dowse @timdowse.bsky.social · 12d

I’ve not read that one, for precisely that reason!

For a straight military history there is an old Ian Allan volume by Robert Jackson, available on eBay. I guess it may be overtaken these days.

Tim Dowse @timdowse.bsky.social · 12d

Keith Kyle’s magnum opus “Suez” is another. If you want something more specialised, I found “Whitehall and the Suez Crisis” (Routledge, 2000) interesting. It’s a ridiculous price new, but used copies seem readily available.

Also Scott Lucas’ “Divided We Stand”, focusing on UK/US aspects.

Tim Dowse @timdowse.bsky.social · 12d

Exactly.

Tim Dowse @timdowse.bsky.social · 13d

Interested to see how SCOTUS handles the legal challenge to that, if it is carried through as stated.

Tim Dowse @timdowse.bsky.social · 13d

Who is all this aimed at? The TV audience? It can't be the generals and admirals in the hall, who didn't attain high rank without being able to tell fact from fiction.

Tim Dowse @timdowse.bsky.social · 13d

If this means what it appears to mean, it feels like the most consequential thing he's said.

Aaron Rupar @atrupar.com · 13d

Hegseth: "Today, at my direction, each service will ensure that every requirement for every combat MOS, for every designated combat arms position, returns to the highest male standard only."

Tim Dowse @timdowse.bsky.social · 15d

Odd how, according to Russia, civilian casualties in Ukraine are all caused by air defences, but the same is never true in Russia.

Ukrainian attacks are clearly directed overwhelmingly at economic and military targets.

Tim Dowse @timdowse.bsky.social · 16d

Well, he was very well-known. But it’s a bit odd to say “now she makes works” for him, given he’s been dead since 2021.

Reposted by Tim Dowse

Sam Freedman @samfr.bsky.social · 19d

Putin has increased Russia's VAT rate to 22% from 20%, breaking a pledge not to raise taxes before 2030. Another indication of a creaking Russian economy.

Tim Dowse @timdowse.bsky.social · 17d

Switzerland, yes (important). But EU members, notably Ireland, do have a trade agreement with the US.

Tim Dowse @timdowse.bsky.social · 17d

So it's basically about India again, is it?

Tim Dowse @timdowse.bsky.social · 18d

Yes - I almost added that. Superb film.

Tim Dowse @timdowse.bsky.social · 18d

Interesting thought for those who argue that armed helicopters have no place in modern conflicts.

NOELREPORTS @noelreports.com · 18d

Commander-in-Chief Syrskyi: In under two months, 85 critical enemy sites have been hit, including 33 bases, depots, arsenals, airfields and parked aircraft. He announced a new Air Force branch dedicated to UAV-based air defense, highlighted combat helicopters now intercept up to 40% of drones.

Tim Dowse @timdowse.bsky.social · 18d

Quite possibly written by someone born after the GDR had disappeared, so never had the chance to experience a real surveillance state.

Tim Dowse @timdowse.bsky.social · 19d

It's a good question, but I agree that given China's then-isolation from the global economy (and much less developed globalisation more generally) I think I stand by my call.

I suppose the Bolshevik Revolution might have a stronger claim. But whichever, neither are very happy precedents.