Author | Lightnews

Tobias Gehrke @tobiasgehrke.bsky.social · 8d

4. There is a desire to explore joint stockpiling, using their existing national systems. It sounds like a good idea, so not everyone stocks the same stuff. But it would demand a lot of trust and intelligence sharing. Japan may be more open to it, but Europeans surely would be doubting this more.

Tobias Gehrke @tobiasgehrke.bsky.social · 8d

I'm not sure how this will work for Europe: competition law perhaps?

2

Tobias Gehrke @tobiasgehrke.bsky.social · 8d

3. There’s fresh focus on regulating the sale of mines outside home jurisdictions. So if a Western firm owns a mine abroad, governments need to step in before it changes hands (there were recent cases, such as Anglo American's nickel mines in Brazil being sold to Chinese miners).

1

Tobias Gehrke @tobiasgehrke.bsky.social · 8d

If Washington deals with the EU, one question would be how projects already selected under the CRMA would fit into the scope. If Washington deals directly with Berlin, Paris, Rome (all G7) there may be a deal of aligning their respective national raw material funds (€2.5bn total) with this framework

1

Tobias Gehrke @tobiasgehrke.bsky.social · 8d

Unlike the US-AUS deal, which had a $1bn financing target within the first 6 months, no $$ target is mentioned here.

1

Tobias Gehrke @tobiasgehrke.bsky.social · 8d

2. Both sides intend to jointly select mineral projects (including downstream ones like magnets, batteries, and catalysts) and to support them through grants, guarantees, loans, equity, offtake agreements, insurance, or regulatory help.

1

Tobias Gehrke @tobiasgehrke.bsky.social · 8d

Conversations with EU countries and the UK are already ongoing, and Canada has made similar proposals in the G7. How these price floors will be determined, esp. between different countries, will be interesting to see.

1 1

Tobias Gehrke @tobiasgehrke.bsky.social · 8d

Materials would move freely within that market. But imports priced below that would face a tariff. This discussion on trusted standards has been around for a few years, but the Trump administration is now moving ahead strongly and bilaterally, rather than slow G7 talks.

1 1

Tobias Gehrke @tobiasgehrke.bsky.social · 8d

1. The most important element is what was already in the US-AUS framework: a 'high-standard' marketplace that reflects the real costs of responsible extraction, processing, and trade. This means setting a price floor for each mineral within this high-standard market.

1

Tobias Gehrke @tobiasgehrke.bsky.social · 8d

After striking a critical mineral deal with Australia, Washington also inked another one with Tokyo. A few things worth noting:

www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-st...

United States - Japan Framework for Securing the Supply of Critical Minerals and Rare Earths through Mining and Processing

Whereas, critical minerals and rare earths are essential for the production of advanced technologies; Whereas, the United States of America (the “United

www.whitehouse.gov

1 1 5

Tobias Gehrke @tobiasgehrke.bsky.social · 8d

A Canadian miner announced a $277 million investment to construct the first US heavy rare earth separation facility in Louisiana. Plans to mine in South America and ship them to Louisiana for processing

asiatimes.com/2025/10/1st-...

1st US heavy rare earths separation facility planned in Louisiana - Asia Times

A Canadian mining company plans to build a facility in Louisiana's Calcasieu Parish to refine rare earth metals used in a variety of motors and

asiatimes.com

Tobias Gehrke @tobiasgehrke.bsky.social · 8d

More trouble ahead

"Rather than prioritizing an expansion in household demand, the party has doubled down on its production-led development model, elevating the erection of a “modernized industrial system” to the No. 1 priority, up from No. 2 in the previous plan"

www.bloomberg.com/news/newslet...

Reposted by Tobias Gehrke

Noah Barkin @noahbarkin.bsky.social · 9d

If the ACI is not used now, at a time when China is taking coercion to a new level through its rare earth controls, the tool deserves a place at the back of the deep-freeze, next to the CAI. @jankaoertel.bsky.social @tobiasgehrke.bsky.social

ecfr.eu/article/esca...

Escalate to negotiate: How Europe should respond to Chinese export restrictions

Beijing is turning its rare earth monopoly into a weapon. The EU needs to treat this as the emergency that it is and unleash its anti-coercion shield to bring China to the negotiating table…

ecfr.eu

5 15

Tobias Gehrke @tobiasgehrke.bsky.social · 10d

Lets hope that is what the Commission has in mind with ReSourceEU. It could become a geoeconomic bazooka that helps Europe (and her allies) build more independent material supply chains.

3

Tobias Gehrke @tobiasgehrke.bsky.social · 10d

Conditioning public contracts on increasingly diversified raw material inputs (like the US IRA did) could give a big demand boost to European miners, processors, and recyclers.

1 1

Tobias Gehrke @tobiasgehrke.bsky.social · 10d

The other big item is public procurement. EU governments are spending hundreds of billions on defence, yet do not seem to care when defence contractors use that money to buy all their materials from China.

1

Tobias Gehrke @tobiasgehrke.bsky.social · 10d

So the EU needs to fix the demand problem. EU (or allied) mineral producers must be able to sell at minimum slightly above the price of their production. That means guaranteeing a price floor, either through tariffs or production subsidies (or both).

1 1

Tobias Gehrke @tobiasgehrke.bsky.social · 10d

As long as European industries can buy cheaper materials from China (or possibly the US, which is also subsidizing now), other producers do not stand a chance.

1

Tobias Gehrke @tobiasgehrke.bsky.social · 10d

Money has been a real bottleneck for Europe’s raw materials agenda. Mining, processing, recycling, and stockpiling all need serious financing. But funding more supply alone is not enough.

1

Tobias Gehrke @tobiasgehrke.bsky.social · 10d

There are still many hundreds of billions of unspent €€ in that fund and spending plans could be adjusted to meet the crisis at hand.

1

Tobias Gehrke @tobiasgehrke.bsky.social · 10d

ReSourceEU seems to suggest the EU should copy the playbook for phasing out fossil fuel dependencies (RePowerEU) for raw materials. That could mean member states can draw loans and grants from the Recovery and Resilience Facility (RRF) for CRM-related projects.

2

Tobias Gehrke @tobiasgehrke.bsky.social · 10d

This is a really good speech from VDL.

And she pitches what could become a gamechanging tool on raw materials.

Ursula von der Leyen @vonderleyen.ec.europa.eu · 11d

This is an era of geoeconomics.

And we must use our geoeconomic weight to protect our strategic sectors and supply chains

It’s a matter of national security.

And Europe has what it takes to thrive in this new confrontational world ↓

link.europa.eu/hvyWFM

1 1 4

Tobias Gehrke @tobiasgehrke.bsky.social · 11d

A supply analysis of 107 leading European corporations from seven industries shows that 86% purchase chips from Nexperia sites in China

- 100% in aerospace and defence sectors
- 95% in mechanical engineering
- 86% in medical technology
- 49% in automotive

www.handelsblatt.com/unternehmen/...

Handelsblatt

www.handelsblatt.com

1 4

Tobias Gehrke @tobiasgehrke.bsky.social · 11d

The irony is that Beijing does not allow any foreign inverter suppliers in its energy grid for cybersecurity reasons.

But Chinese firms happily undercut European competitors and now supply and control some 80% of inverters in Europe.

Disaster in the making...
www.politico.eu/article/euro...

Huawei’s solar tech sparks fears of Europe’s next dependency crisis

Cyber officials fear the Chinese tech giant’s grip on energy networks.

www.politico.eu

10 45 110

Tobias Gehrke @tobiasgehrke.bsky.social · 12d

ah! thanks