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Tobias Harris

@tobiasharris.bsky.social

6.3K followers 740 following 5.8K posts

Japanese politics analyst; author of The Iconoclast: Shinzō Abe and the New Japan; Chicago-born Cubs fan now living in DC; marathoner; RHP + IF ⚾ Substack: Observingjapan.substack.com. Business: www.japanforesight.com

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Tobias Harris @tobiasharris.bsky.social · 1d

Japanese politics was rocked on Friday as the Kōmeitō announced it would leave its coalition with the LDP after twenty-six years. To understand why this happened and what it means, I wrote a guide for the perplexed.

open.substack.com/pub/observin...

Kōmeitō quits the coalition

A guide for the perplexed

open.substack.com

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Tobias Harris @tobiasharris.bsky.social · 2h

Also, these dorks can't even get the flag right. It's blue with a red L.

Tobias Harris @tobiasharris.bsky.social · 2h

Mess them up Shohei.

Tobias Harris @tobiasharris.bsky.social · 2h

Brewers never. No class.

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Reposted by Tobias Harris

Jay Ulfelder @jayulfelder.bsky.social · 4h

As someone whose professional interests have overlapped heavily with Przeworski's, I felt (and concurred with) this bit: "The brutal fact that we find it so difficult to predict what will happen under our current circumstances is evidence that we do not have theories we can rely on."

How Democracies Fall Apart - Dissent Magazine

An interview with Adam Przeworski.

www.dissentmagazine.org

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Tobias Harris @tobiasharris.bsky.social · 12h

Weird season. The first half was about as fun of a Cubs season as I can remember, the second half mostly sucked, games 3 and 4 briefly reminded me of the first half, but I can't say I'm surprised that they're done.

Anyway, go M's.

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Reposted by Tobias Harris

Tobias Harris @tobiasharris.bsky.social · 1d

Ishiba's address on the eightieth anniversary of the end of the war is really worth reading:

japan.kantei.go.jp/content/0001...

japan.kantei.go.jp

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Tobias Harris @tobiasharris.bsky.social · 14h

This would have been weird a few months ago, but I'll be happy when I don't have to see Andrew Vaughn again until next season.

Tobias Harris @tobiasharris.bsky.social · 14h

I think you're going to be waiting for a long time if you're pinning your hopes on Renho.

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Tobias Harris @tobiasharris.bsky.social · 16h

I mean, I love listening to Pat and Ron so it's not a terrible hardship.

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Tobias Harris @tobiasharris.bsky.social · 16h

Help! I know superstition is dumb but my inner baseball player says it must be respected.

Tobias Harris @tobiasharris.bsky.social · 2d

I started listening to Cubs radio after they took a 3-1 lead in game 3 and I think superstition now demands that I follow the remainder of the series by radio.

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Tobias Harris @tobiasharris.bsky.social · 22h

I'm in the early stages of a book project on Japan's post-1952 politics and I am constantly struck by the resonances.

Tobias Harris @tobiasharris.bsky.social · 1d

"We need you for one last job."

Tobias Harris @tobiasharris.bsky.social · 1d

Naturally because of the 1993 resonances and his life's work of destroying the LDP, but also he's pushed Noda to work with the DPFP and others to topple the LDP.

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Tobias Harris @tobiasharris.bsky.social · 1d

I can't help but wonder, where's Ozawa Ichiro?

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Tobias Harris @tobiasharris.bsky.social · 1d

Nikkei walks through various PM election scenarios.

www.nikkei.com/article/DGXZ...

高市早苗氏か玉木雄一郎氏か、首相指名シナリオ　国会まで10日程の多数派工作 - 日本経済新聞

次の首相を選ぶ臨時国会の首相指名選挙が混沌としてきた。公明党が連立離脱を決めた結果、野党が結束して候補を立てれば自民党の高市早苗総裁の得票を上回る可能性が出てきた。野党内には国民民主党の玉木雄一郎代表を推す声が上がる。国会召集まであと10日ほど。各党の多数派工作が始まった。公明党は10日、首相指名選挙で同党の斉藤鉄夫代表の名前を書くと公表した。現時点では高市氏にも野党側候補にも投票しない見込み

www.nikkei.com

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Tobias Harris @tobiasharris.bsky.social · 1d

I don't think I'm ready for it. Trying not to think about it.

Tobias Harris @tobiasharris.bsky.social · 1d

We'll use state power to usher in utopia and then we'll never, ever need to use it again, we swear.

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Tobias Harris @tobiasharris.bsky.social · 1d

I fell asleep sometime between the 12th and 15th but literally opened my eyes just in time to see Polanco seal it. Happy for the many, many M's fans I follow.

Tobias Harris @tobiasharris.bsky.social · 1d

Pitchers might be too good.

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Tobias Harris @tobiasharris.bsky.social · 1d

Sup

Reposted by Tobias Harris

Tobias Harris @tobiasharris.bsky.social · 1d

In a free edition of the Japan Daily Briefing — I’m starting “free Fridays” — I look more at the causes and effects of Kōmeitō’s break with the LDP and discuss Ishiba’s reflections on the eightieth anniversary of the end of World War II.

open.substack.com/pub/observin...

The end of the coalition | Japan Daily Briefing

As the coalition breaks, Ishiba delivers an impassioned defense of democracy

open.substack.com

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Reposted by Tobias Harris

Tobias Harris @tobiasharris.bsky.social · 1d

Kōmeitō quits the coalition

A guide for the perplexed

open.substack.com

3 57 140

Tobias Harris @tobiasharris.bsky.social · 1d

You may not like it but this is what peak performance looks like.

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Tobias Harris @tobiasharris.bsky.social · 1d

When Levi speaks about Kōmeitō, it pays to listen.

Levi McLaughlin @levimclaughlin.bsky.social · 1d

Japan, ostensibly one of the least religious countries in the world, had its political order upended by the lay Buddhist organization Soka Gakkai. That is THE story about Friday's epochal shift in Japanese politics (thread follows):