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Reposted by Levi McLaughlin

Tobias Harris @tobiasharris.bsky.social · 22h

In a free edition of the Japan Daily Briefing — I’m starting “free Fridays” — I look more at the causes and effects of Kōmeitō’s break with the LDP and discuss Ishiba’s reflections on the eightieth anniversary of the end of World War II.

open.substack.com/pub/observin...

The end of the coalition | Japan Daily Briefing

As the coalition breaks, Ishiba delivers an impassioned defense of democracy

open.substack.com

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Levi McLaughlin @levimclaughlin.bsky.social · 3h

We're looking at a very messy political time.

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Levi McLaughlin @levimclaughlin.bsky.social · 3h

This inspiration may lead to more votes and more electoral successes, at least on the PR level. But success will depend on how agreements with the CDP and other parties translates into political realities.

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Levi McLaughlin @levimclaughlin.bsky.social · 3h

However, there is a chance that Gakkai members will be inspired by the bravery of Komeito's new leader Saitō and his willingness to sever ties with the LDP - a merger that almost all of my Gakkai friends have regarded as a marriage in need of dissolving.

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Levi McLaughlin @levimclaughlin.bsky.social · 3h

Analyses of these factors appear in the forthcoming Japan Decides 2024 volume, which drops in a few weeks: link.springer.com/book/9783031...

Japan Decides 2024

This book provides a coherent overall explanation for understanding in the election in both historical and comparative perspective

link.springer.com

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Levi McLaughlin @levimclaughlin.bsky.social · 3h

At its peak, the party gained more than nine million PR votes. We can expect its numbers to keep dropping.

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Levi McLaughlin @levimclaughlin.bsky.social · 3h

In the October 2024 Lower House election, Komeito gained ~5.9 million votes, its lowest ever for the LDP-Komeito coalition era, which began in 1999.

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Levi McLaughlin @levimclaughlin.bsky.social · 3h

Because Soka Gakkai's member numbers and the enthusiasm of its adherents for electioneering are waning, the religion's once-formidable historic vote-gathering strength has been dropping precipitously in recent years.

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Levi McLaughlin @levimclaughlin.bsky.social · 3h

Japan's Diet comprises a complex mix of single member districts and multiple member districts that make up "PR Blocks."

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Levi McLaughlin @levimclaughlin.bsky.social · 3h

Aware that they have little chance under the current electoral system of gaining victories in head-to-head races, they'll be leaning on their capacity to gain some seats through proportional representation

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Levi McLaughlin @levimclaughlin.bsky.social · 3h

Komeito's leadership, in the meantime, does seem to be proceeding in a highly pragmatic fashion.

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Levi McLaughlin @levimclaughlin.bsky.social · 3h

Ikeda battled charges of violating elections laws in Osaka. Not having Komeito politicians in office in Osaka, for Gakkai members, bears a great deal of symbolic weight.

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Levi McLaughlin @levimclaughlin.bsky.social · 3h

Losing in Kansai matters a lot for Soka Gakkai vote-gatherers; in the religion, the region is known as "ever-victorious Kansai" (jōshō Kansai 常勝関西), due to the particular intensity of Gakkai supporters who follow a tradition of supporting the Gakkai's Honorary President Ikeda Daisaku

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Levi McLaughlin @levimclaughlin.bsky.social · 3h

They're doing this seemingly by coordinating with Ishin no Kai, Komeito's principal rival in and around Osaka, which has been dominating races in the western district of Kansai and thereabouts.

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Levi McLaughlin @levimclaughlin.bsky.social · 3h

Things are moving very fast. The LDP is wasting no time aligning against Komeito to prevent its candidates from securing electoral victories in single member districts

digital.asahi.com/articles/AST...

自民が「公明選挙区」に独自候補を擁立検討へ　維新に連携呼びかけも：朝日新聞

自民党は11日、2024年衆院選で公明党が候補者を擁立した小選挙区について、次期衆院選では独自候補を擁立する方向で検討に入った。公明が連立政権から離脱したことに伴い、勢力を拡大させるためには対決は避…

digital.asahi.com

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Levi McLaughlin @levimclaughlin.bsky.social · 3h

Resonance between these leaders on tax policy and a shared need in Japan for support of social services comes through. Ide-sensei's analysis provides helpful indices for understanding ways alliances are likely to be forged in the coming days.

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Levi McLaughlin @levimclaughlin.bsky.social · 3h

...along with statements made in recent months by Nishikata Mitsuo (Soka Gakkai's Youth Division head) and Harada Minoru (the President of Soka Gakkai).

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Levi McLaughlin @levimclaughlin.bsky.social · 3h

Komeito's election manifesto for its autumn 2024 Lower House campaign, the Constitutional Democratic Party (with which Komeito appears to now forging strategic links)...

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Levi McLaughlin @levimclaughlin.bsky.social · 3h

Prof. Ide lines up recent policies promoted by Yoshino Tomoko, the head of Rengo (the Japanese Trade Union Confederation, the principal backer of the opposition Democratic Party for the People)...

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Levi McLaughlin @levimclaughlin.bsky.social · 3h

Friends in Soka Gakkai have been circulating this analysis by Ide Eisaku, Keio University economist, which breaks down policy resonances between Komeito, Soka Gakkai, Japan's most powerful union, and opposition parties (thread to follow):

www.facebook.com/share/p/17Aq...

Redirecting...

www.facebook.com

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Levi McLaughlin @levimclaughlin.bsky.social · 23h

Isn't it amazing how many typos and grammatically embarrassing mistakes you can find after you post a thread? Miraculous.

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Levi McLaughlin @levimclaughlin.bsky.social · 23h

More to come...

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Levi McLaughlin @levimclaughlin.bsky.social · 23h

There's a particular quality to splits of this nature when it comes to married couples, and I think there will be similarly PROFOUND ramifications for both coalition partners, and therefore for Japan's political system, that are specific to the breakup of their quarter-century-long alliance.

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Levi McLaughlin @levimclaughlin.bsky.social · 23h

've seen this breakup referred to as a jukunen rikon 熟年離婚, a "divorce in mature years," using a phrase in Japanese to describe couples who split decades after they get married.

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Levi McLaughlin @levimclaughlin.bsky.social · 23h

But what will this translate into at the polls?

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