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Ukraine War Brief Podcast

@ukrainewarpod.bsky.social

3.3K followers 360 following 6.5K posts

Rob Gaudette on Twitter. Hosted by a Ukrainian and produced by an American with a PharmD. thepeoplesmedia.substack.com

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Ukraine War Brief Podcast @ukrainewarpod.bsky.social · Jun 11

If I use an estimated 6 trillion ruble deficit—instead of the “very optimistic” 3.8 trillion rubles currently under consideration—the gap is even more profound.

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Ukraine War Brief Podcast @ukrainewarpod.bsky.social · 3h

Update: The Simferopol thermal power isn’t on fire, but the Simferopol thermal 330kV substation is! They’re close to each other.

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Ukraine War Brief Podcast @ukrainewarpod.bsky.social · 3h

Regime propagandist “economist” Zubarevich said restaurants were thriving. It appears the restaurant industry is the next to enter a crisis in Russia.

Traffic is down 30-40% this year, and many restaurants and bars are shutting their doors.

m.realnoevremya.ru/articles/358...

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Ukraine War Brief Podcast @ukrainewarpod.bsky.social · 4h

Official inflation in Russia, per Rosstat’s underestimate, m/m (seasonally adjusted)

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Ukraine War Brief Podcast @ukrainewarpod.bsky.social · 6h

There is one more quarter to go in the year, and Russia has only raised a net of 354 billion rubles through bond auctions. Russia needs at least 5.7 trillion rubles by the end of the year.

Tick tock, bitch.

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Ukraine War Brief Podcast @ukrainewarpod.bsky.social · 7h

Apparently, the Simferopol thermal power plant is on fire, as traffic has been routed around it. And the 200kV substation in Kefe was attacked last night as well.

Crimea going to be without fuel, heat, or electricity at this rate.

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Ukraine War Brief Podcast @ukrainewarpod.bsky.social · 7h

FIRMS is detecting heat anomalies 6 km long 🥹

This must be a huge fire. Feodosia, Crimea.

firms.modaps.eosdis.nasa.gov/map/#d:24hrs...

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Ukraine War Brief Podcast @ukrainewarpod.bsky.social · 10h

Zelenskyy spoke to Trump yesterday, and then spoke to him again today. On Wednesday, Andriy Yermak (the backup President) and the new Prime Minister are coming to Washington. 👀

Something good is happening.

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Ukraine War Brief Podcast @ukrainewarpod.bsky.social · 12h

🔥 Crimea won’t have fuel by the end of the month at this rate.

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Ukraine War Brief Podcast @ukrainewarpod.bsky.social · 12h

Deleted the stupid watermarks

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Ukraine War Brief Podcast @ukrainewarpod.bsky.social · 12h

Moscow 1812

Feodosia 2025

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Ukraine War Brief Podcast @ukrainewarpod.bsky.social · 13h

It’s beautiful

Ukraine War Brief Podcast @ukrainewarpod.bsky.social · 13h

The oil depot in Feodosia is on fire… again!

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Ukraine War Brief Podcast @ukrainewarpod.bsky.social · 15h

taskandpurpose.com/news/texas-n...

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Ukraine War Brief Podcast @ukrainewarpod.bsky.social · 16h

The United States is attacking Russian infrastructure with Ukraine by providing critical intelligence on targets’ vulnerabilities. 😍

www.ft.com/content/f9f4...

The US has for months been helping Ukraine mount long-range strikes on Russian energy facilities, in what officials say is a co-ordinated effort to weaken Vladimir Putin's economy and force him to the negotiating table.

American intelligence shared with Kyiv has enabled strikes on important Russian energy assets including oil refineries far beyond the frontline, according to multiple Ukrainian and US officials familiar with the campaign.

The US intelligence helps Kyiv shape route planning, altitude, timing and mission decisions, enabling Ukraine's long-range, one-way attack drones to evade Russian air defences, said the officials familiar with the matter.

Three people familiar with the operation said Washington was closely involved in all stages of planning. A US official said Ukraine selected the targets for long-range strikes and Washington then provided intelligence on the sites' vulnerabilities.

Ukraine War Brief Podcast @ukrainewarpod.bsky.social · 16h

No it doesn’t…

Come up with something more insuasive than that

Ukraine War Brief Podcast @ukrainewarpod.bsky.social · 1d

I don’t think they do. The grand strategist’s plan is to buy another month. And another month. And another month.

Russia might have to amend the budget a final time to authorize more borrowing before or after actually doing so. We shall see.

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Ukraine War Brief Podcast @ukrainewarpod.bsky.social · 1d

Rosstat* rate of price growth of gasoline (blue) and diesel fuel (red) since the beginning of this year.

Rosstat, Russia’s state statistical agency, often understates price growth, sometimes by up to half.

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Ukraine War Brief Podcast @ukrainewarpod.bsky.social · 1d

7. Coal sector, eg Mechel, 17,000 workers laid off.

8. Steel—crisis impending.

Ukraine War Brief Podcast @ukrainewarpod.bsky.social · 1d

2. Russian Railways- 3 unpaid days a month extra

3. Gorky Automotive Plant (GAZ), manufacturers vans, 4 day workweek

4. KAMAZ, truck maker, 4 day workweek

5. Alrosa, diamonds, reduction of wages by 10% (shortened workweek/RIFs)

6. Sveza, paper/lumber, closed Tyumen mill, laying off 300 workers.

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Ukraine War Brief Podcast @ukrainewarpod.bsky.social · 1d

This is a fantastic Reuters article detailing how “layoffs” work (or don’t) in Russia. Unemployment is at record lows because Russian companies tend not to fire, but cut job hours or wages.

1. Cemros, largest cement maker, 4 day workweek.

www.reuters.com/world/europe...

Russia's industrial titans furlough workers as its war economy stalls

From railways and automobiles to metals, coal, diamonds and cement, some of Russia's biggest industrial companies are putting employees on furlough or cutting staff as the war economy slows, domestic demand stalls and exports dry up.

www.reuters.com

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Ukraine War Brief Podcast @ukrainewarpod.bsky.social · 1d

Yes, the federal budget has to top it up somehow. Where they’re going to get the money is anyone’s guess, but I’d bet on central bank printing via REPO.

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Ukraine War Brief Podcast @ukrainewarpod.bsky.social · 1d

Independent gas station networks N-1 and TPK in Sverdlovsk and Tyumen have limited sales of gasoline to just 30L, and banned the use of jerrycans.

www.moscowtimes.ru/2025/10/08/v...

В четвертом российском регионе появились лимиты на продажу бензина «в одни руки» - Русская служба The Moscow Times

www.moscowtimes.ru

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Ukraine War Brief Podcast @ukrainewarpod.bsky.social · 1d

The Mandatory Medical Insurance Fund is also in huge deficit at 89 billion rubles, an increase of 4.7 times over last year!

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Ukraine War Brief Podcast @ukrainewarpod.bsky.social · 1d

The Russian Pension Fund has an 800 billion ruble deficit—the only larger deficit was in 2022 (1 trillion rubles).

Revenues this year are 12 trillion, but obligations are 17 trillion rubles.

Federal budget transfer was cut from 5.47 to 3.64 trillion rubles.

www.moscowtimes.ru/2025/10/07/v...

В бюджете Пенсионного фонда России образовалась «дыра» на 800 миллиардов рублей - Русская служба The Moscow Times

www.moscowtimes.ru

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Ukraine War Brief Podcast @ukrainewarpod.bsky.social · 1d

The U.S. Department of Energy forecasts Brent crude will average just $52 a barrel in 2026. If discounts remain as they are now, Urals prices could average just $40.

Russia’s budget plans for $59 a barrel Urals prices next year 🤡

www.finversia.ru/news/markets...

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