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Expected Own Goals

@xowngoals.com

3.5K followers 360 following 1.4K posts

A podcast about the NWSL, USWNT, and women's soccer around the world. Listen: https://open.spotify.com/show/30ThmaUENe9hTGo00Y Watch: youtube.com/@xOwnGoals Subscribe: patreon.com/c/xOwnGoals Support: https://ko-fi.com/xowngoals

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Expected Own Goals @xowngoals.com · 2d

On this week's "Anatomy of", we try to tease out what North Carolina Courage (and future Boston Legacy FC) goalkeeper Casey Murphy looks for when she lines up to stop a pen. Like the clip in question, she got the better of us. Like/subscribe!

#NWSL | #USWNT

youtu.be/mFNIiEFKBeM

Casey Murphy STONEWALLS Us When We Ask About Saving Penalties

YouTube video by Expected Own Goals

youtu.be

Expected Own Goals @xowngoals.com · 7h

And only the second time this season they won the non-penalty xG battle by more than 0.5. The other game? A road game back in April, also to Bay FC.

Theo Lloyd-Hughes @theolloydhughes.bsky.social · 7h

third-highest xG of the szn (2.00) Seattle Reign tonight

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g+ GameFlow @gameflow.bsky.social · 9h

g+ GameFlow: NWSL Regular Season Racing Louisville FC v Chicago Stars on October 10, 2025. #LOUvCHI ⚽️🤖

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g+ GameFlow @gameflow.bsky.social · 9h

g+ GameFlow: NWSL Regular Season Orlando Pride v Portland Thorns FC on October 10, 2025. #ORLvPOR ⚽️🤖

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Expected Own Goals @xowngoals.com · 9h

The model coulda been "wrong", too! That's probability for you. Play the game 10 times and the Thorns win 3, but the Pride win 4, according to the model's math. Both teams were pretty evenly matched and it coulda gone multiple directions. Somehow fitting that it ended on an at-the-death OG.

Expected Own Goals @xowngoals.com · 10h

Win probabilities for Seattle Reign - Bay FC based on announced XIs, via @americansocceranalysis.com

Reign win: 45%
Draw: 27%
Bay win: 28%

#BayFC | #SEAvBAY | #NWSL

Expected Own Goals @xowngoals.com · 10h

elmo from sesame street standing in front of a wall

ALT: elmo from sesame street standing in front of a wall

media.tenor.com

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Expected Own Goals @xowngoals.com · 10h

Everyone catch their breath?!? Racing Louisville save a point at the death against the Chicago Stars.

Score: 1 - 1
xG: 2.3 - 1.4
xG/Shot: 0.10 - 0.09
Quality Chances: 6 - 1
Box Shots: 16 - 11
Box Touches: 58 - 31
Field Tilt: 62 - 38
Flibbity-jibbety energy: 18 - 43

#RacingLou | #LOUvCHI | #NWSL

SofaScore graphic depicting the shifts in momentum in the game between Racing Louisville and the Chicago Stars FC on October 10th, 2025.

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Expected Own Goals @xowngoals.com · 12h

And visit VizHub if you haven't already!

viz.americansocceranalysis.com

Catalina @catabush.com · 12h

@xowngoals.com just released a patreon episode that is the realization of my dream for VizHub and how it could be used. It is honestly flattering to see such thoughtful and in-depth analysis made using VizHub graphics. I highly recommend you give it a listen and sub to xOG if you haven't already.

Expected Own Goals @xowngoals.com · 12h

Win probabilities for Orlando Pride - Portland Thorns based on announced XIs, via
@americansocceranalysis.com

Pride win: 38%
Draw: 28%
Thorns win: 34%

#BAONPDX | #ORLvPOR | #NWSL

Expected Own Goals @xowngoals.com · 13h

Win probabilities for Racing Louisville - Chicago Stars FC based on announced XIs, via @americansocceranalysis.com

Louisville win: 61%
Draw: 23%
Chicago win: 16%

#RacingLou | #LOUvCHI | #NWSL

Expected Own Goals @xowngoals.com · 18h

Expected Own Goals @xowngoals.com · 2d

It's becoming increasingly difficult to argue against this with each passing game.

Claire Watkins @scoutripley.bsky.social · 2d

Is A’ja Wilson the best WNBA player of all time

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Expected Own Goals @xowngoals.com · 2d

Casey Murphy STONEWALLS Us When We Ask About Saving Penalties

YouTube video by Expected Own Goals

youtu.be

Reposted by Expected Own Goals

Shameless Reign Stan @watmildon.bsky.social · 3d

Turning our haters into waiters at the cooler of our success.

Reign FC

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Expected Own Goals @xowngoals.com · 3d

Yep, our own goal! To be acknowledged on the next pod!

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Expected Own Goals @xowngoals.com · 3d

This is the squad that might play the quarterfinals at home.

Graphic from American Soccer Analysis depicting the rolling changes in the Seattle Reign's non-penalty expected goal differential in the 2025 NWSL regular season.

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Expected Own Goals @xowngoals.com · 3d

Big news! You can now get our main feed episodes AD-FREE on Patreon! You get both the video AND audio-only versions of the show!

Plus you get a bonus episode every single week and access to our Discord and livestreams! Only $6/month for our basic tier! EXCLAMATION POINTS!

#NWSL | #USWNT | #UWCL

NWSL Week 23: Are Louisville In? Are North Carolina Out? Will San Diego Hang On? — AUDIO | Expected Own Goals

www.patreon.com

Expected Own Goals @xowngoals.com · 3d

Expected Own Goals @xowngoals.com · 4d

Some apples-to-apples comparisons (weeknight non-Friday home games in autumn)

Wednesday September 21, 2022: 16,112
Monday October 2, 2023: 18,102
Monday September 23, 2024: 22,000

#AngelCityFC

Expected Own Goals @xowngoals.com · 4d

11,147 reported attendance at BMO Stadium, an all-time record low for Angel City's reported attendances in the NWSL regular season.

#AngelCityFC | #NWSL | #LAvKC

Expected Own Goals @xowngoals.com · 3d

bsky.app/profile/xown...

Expected Own Goals @xowngoals.com · 4d

Some apples-to-apples comparisons (weeknight non-Friday home games in autumn)

Wednesday September 21, 2022: 16,112
Monday October 2, 2023: 18,102
Monday September 23, 2024: 22,000

#AngelCityFC

Expected Own Goals @xowngoals.com · 4d

11,147 reported attendance at BMO Stadium, an all-time record low for Angel City's reported attendances in the NWSL regular season.

#AngelCityFC | #NWSL | #LAvKC

Reposted by Expected Own Goals

g+ GameFlow @gameflow.bsky.social · 4d

g+ GameFlow: NWSL Regular Season Angel City FC v Kansas City Current on October 06, 2025. #ACFCvKC ⚽️🤖

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Expected Own Goals @xowngoals.com · 4d

The Current only need three more points from their final three games to break the all-time #NWSL points-per-game record, previously set by the 2018 North Carolina Courage.

#KCBABY

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Expected Own Goals @xowngoals.com · 4d

Some apples-to-apples comparisons (weeknight non-Friday home games in autumn)

Wednesday September 21, 2022: 16,112
Monday October 2, 2023: 18,102
Monday September 23, 2024: 22,000

#AngelCityFC

Expected Own Goals @xowngoals.com · 4d

11,147 reported attendance at BMO Stadium, an all-time record low for Angel City's reported attendances in the NWSL regular season.

#AngelCityFC | #NWSL | #LAvKC

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Expected Own Goals @xowngoals.com · 4d

100%

Expected Own Goals @xowngoals.com · 4d

Avg. attendance thru 6/7: 17.4k
Avg. attendance, 6/14 - 10/6: 14.4k (17.5% decline)

LAFC's attendance hasn't dipped at all, while the Galaxy's began to drop in March when it was clear the team was bad. Yet the line of demarcation for ACFC couldn't be more clearly tied to the start of the raids.

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Expected Own Goals @xowngoals.com · 4d

That is undoubtedly a factor here.

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