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Aaron @aaronznj.bsky.social · 5h

I mean after he won the primary. Though yeah that is the catch-22 of the GOP; even in instances where is is very much in their interest come the general election to elevate boring center-right people, their base just refuses to allow people like that to win a primary.

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Aaron @aaronznj.bsky.social · 6h

Ironically, Ciattarelli's best strategy from day one would have been to distance himself from Trump, play the moderate, and talk about nothing but "wow isn't Murphy just so disappointing? Sherrill is gonna be four more years of that." but the GOP is at this point incapable of doing that.

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Aaron @aaronznj.bsky.social · 6h

Well also the fact that he kind of went first when it came to this ugly personal stuff with the whole Navy records thing. He doesn't have that "I'm honest and pure, my opponent is making this personal because they don't want to talk real issues" because he got into that pool first!

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Aaron @aaronznj.bsky.social · 7h

And, tbh, at least from what I’m seeing, the attack isn’t backfiring, it’s actually backing ciattarelli into a corner where all he’s willing to do is pull a page out of the trump book and threaten a frivolous lawsuit.

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Aaron @aaronznj.bsky.social · 7h

Attacks just don’t ”backfire” in this day and age anymore. The GOP has pretty much decided to openly embrace living in this post-reality universe. It’s be foolish to counter that by not even allowing yourself license to use hyperbole.

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Aaron @aaronznj.bsky.social · 11h

Guess it's gonna be my turn to share the meme...

Spongebob Meme of how Sherrill is always up by 6. Over and over again up by 6.

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Aaron @aaronznj.bsky.social · 11h

Presumably, they insist that Democrats made them do it and it's Democrats' fault because of that. Or some other made up reason. The point is they will say that actually your social security checks didn't show up because Democrats.

Aaron @aaronznj.bsky.social · 11h

This is why that attack line in the debate was a good idea. The media loves, and I mean LOVES playing up when people just go on the attack. They don't care if it was true. They love the drama of it and love to encourage it.

"Wow Sherrill has taken the momentum" simply by actually doing *something*.

nj.com headline "The Nastiest Race in NJ gov History Just Got Uglier. Here's Why Sherrill's Cheap Shot Worked."

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Reposted by Aaron

Spooky Monorail Maoist @awildschild.bsky.social · 20h

Call 811 before you dig

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Aaron @aaronznj.bsky.social · 1d

It's a campaign. What are you expecting lol? Only the good guys run campaign ads?

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Aaron @aaronznj.bsky.social · 1d

All of these polls for CA and NJ are just working on this almost deterministic assumption that the electorate that votes in 2025 will be the same as 2024. Ignoring that the attitudes of each party's base could not be more different this year compared to last.

Aaron @aaronznj.bsky.social · 1d

These off-year elections is they are about relative turnout.

When your party wins the presidency, people tend to be either satisfied (don't vote), complacent (don't vote), or disillusioned (don't vote).

When the other party wins the presidency, people tend to be pissed off (they vote!)

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Aaron @aaronznj.bsky.social · 1d

I mean, he did win with a minority of votes thanks to Robert Sarvis. Who knows how many of those votes would have gone to Cuccinelli, but we can say that Obama won in 2012, and in 2013, more Virginians wanted to vote for "not a Democrat" than "a Democrat". It still works.

Excerpt from the wikipedia page for the 2013 Virginia Gubernatorial election.

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Aaron @aaronznj.bsky.social · 1d

I am of the opinion that it's not bold to say that the thing that has happened in the past eight governor elections in a row is more likely happen again than some completely different unprecedented outcome.

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Aaron @aaronznj.bsky.social · 1d

fwiw I predict she will in by between 10 and 12%.

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Aaron @aaronznj.bsky.social · 1d

New Jersey has the exact same tendencies as Virginia. Go do a regression of "margin by which Party A won the electoral college" and "margin by which Party B wins the governor election the next year".

Virginia is pretty much a straight line. NJ is a little fuzzier but it's a pretty clear tendency.

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Aaron @aaronznj.bsky.social · 1d

Abigail Spanberger is clearly running the worst campaign in the history of campaigns, she’s gonna lose this whole thing, we’re all going to die (ok maybe that last part but not due to the results of the New Jersey or Virginia gubernatorial elections).

Aaron @aaronznj.bsky.social · 1d

Now if this was a New Jersey poll, everyone would be losing their fucking minds about Sherrill only being up by 4 in a GOP-sponsored poll and it’s the end of the goddamn world.

Poll Tracker 📊 @polltracker.bsky.social · 1d

Cygnal poll | 10/6-10/7 LV

Virginia Governor
🔵Abigail Spanberger 49.2% (-1.1)
🔴Winsome Earle-Sears 45.2% (+2.0)

(Previous poll in September)

(GOP-linked pollster)

wjla.com/news/electio...

New poll shows Virginia governor's race tightening, Spanberger still leads

A new poll from the Republican polling firm Cygnal shows that Virginia's gubernatorial race is getting tighter, though Abigail Spanberger still holds a lead.

wjla.com

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Aaron @aaronznj.bsky.social · 1d

It just seems like there’s not really a good way to construct a Democratic campaign! You need to be compelling emotionally resonant but also totally rooted in facts and boring policy details.

A lot of what appeals to the moderates and center-left is going to turn off the left base and vice versa.

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Aaron @aaronznj.bsky.social · 1d

so the rule is, just to be clear: Republicans are literally allowed to just make shit up to the point of creating a fabricated reality.

Democrats must be completely and utterly factual at all times.

fwiw I think it’s a perfectly reasonable attack line and was executed adequately.

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Aaron @aaronznj.bsky.social · 2d

We gotta get someone to fix the no weekend service thing, fuck.

text snippet from an article about High Bridge being the latest designated Transit Village in New Jersey.

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Aaron @aaronznj.bsky.social · 2d

Again, doesn't sound at all bad. If anything maybe some good could come out of it. Who knows maybe that creates some sort of urgency to stop kicking various coalitional cans down the road.

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Aaron @aaronznj.bsky.social · 2d

MARC MultiLevels just look...wrong.

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Aaron @aaronznj.bsky.social · 2d

lmao I love how the GOP has to constantly escalate how Scary And Dangerous (tm) cities are.

They keep needing to add health bars on the boss level.

Aaron Rupar @atrupar.com · 2d

Trump: "I don't know what could be worse than Portland. You don't even have stores anymore. They don't even put glass up. They put plywood on their windows."

Aaron @aaronznj.bsky.social · 2d

Wait, that doesn't sound like much of a bad thing, unless I'm missing something? Ciattarelli still loses, and the New Jersey Democratic Party finally cleans its house.

Unless you think enough seats are lost in this to create a Republican majority in the state legislature or something.

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