Anton Barbashin
@abarbashin.bsky.social
Russia foreign and domestic politics. Editorial Director at ridl.io
Pinned
In this text for ridl.io
I outline 5 core postulates of Russian "Chaos Theory" that best explains Russian foreign policy posture from the practical standpoint.
1. The old world and its rules cannot be restored.
2. Chaos is fundamentally unmanageable.
1/3
I outline 5 core postulates of Russian "Chaos Theory" that best explains Russian foreign policy posture from the practical standpoint.
1. The old world and its rules cannot be restored.
2. Chaos is fundamentally unmanageable.
1/3
Adam Kadyrov in many ways is in a stronger position now than a year ago, but his coming of age was irrelevant in this development. The potential for him to succeed Ramzan Kadyrov, however, remains limited in the current circumstances.
ridl.io/kadyrov-s-de...
ridl.io/kadyrov-s-de...
Kadyrov’s desired successor comes of age. What now? – Riddle Russia
Harold Chambers on the persistence of structural obstacles to a direct Kadyrov family succession
ridl.io
November 26, 2025 at 9:04 AM
Adam Kadyrov in many ways is in a stronger position now than a year ago, but his coming of age was irrelevant in this development. The potential for him to succeed Ramzan Kadyrov, however, remains limited in the current circumstances.
ridl.io/kadyrov-s-de...
ridl.io/kadyrov-s-de...
What seems to be the most likely story now:
Kushner and Witkoff decided to come up with a peace plan.
Asked Dmitriev to pitch in. Dmitriev got the green light from the Kremlin.
Then the Americans merges their ideas and Russian proposals and pitched it to Trump
Kushner and Witkoff decided to come up with a peace plan.
Asked Dmitriev to pitch in. Dmitriev got the green light from the Kremlin.
Then the Americans merges their ideas and Russian proposals and pitched it to Trump
November 26, 2025 at 8:29 AM
What seems to be the most likely story now:
Kushner and Witkoff decided to come up with a peace plan.
Asked Dmitriev to pitch in. Dmitriev got the green light from the Kremlin.
Then the Americans merges their ideas and Russian proposals and pitched it to Trump
Kushner and Witkoff decided to come up with a peace plan.
Asked Dmitriev to pitch in. Dmitriev got the green light from the Kremlin.
Then the Americans merges their ideas and Russian proposals and pitched it to Trump
What we see in Syria is: Moscow is every adaptive, ready to accept its new, diminished role
“Kremlin appears to be ready for a pragmatic trade-off in #Syria: preserving a military presence in exchange for supporting the stability of the new Islamist regime”
ridl.io/russia-in-th...
ridl.io/russia-in-th...
Russia in the New Syria: From Indispensable Ally to Auxiliary Partner – Riddle Russia
Nikita Smagin on how Damascus is closing the door on a return to Russian dominance
ridl.io
November 25, 2025 at 7:27 PM
What we see in Syria is: Moscow is every adaptive, ready to accept its new, diminished role
“Kremlin appears to be ready for a pragmatic trade-off in #Syria: preserving a military presence in exchange for supporting the stability of the new Islamist regime”
ridl.io/russia-in-th...
ridl.io/russia-in-th...
Russia in the New Syria: From Indispensable Ally to Auxiliary Partner – Riddle Russia
Nikita Smagin on how Damascus is closing the door on a return to Russian dominance
ridl.io
November 25, 2025 at 4:46 PM
“Kremlin appears to be ready for a pragmatic trade-off in #Syria: preserving a military presence in exchange for supporting the stability of the new Islamist regime”
ridl.io/russia-in-th...
ridl.io/russia-in-th...
Reposted by Anton Barbashin
Chaos Theory, developed primarily by experts associated with the Valdai Discussion Club, it is regularly elaborated in their reports, which underline both the concept’s evolution and its critical importance for russia’s current strategy.
ridl.io/witnesses-of...
ridl.io/witnesses-of...
Witnesses of Chaos – Riddle Russia
Anton Barbashin on the Five Postulates of Russia’s «Chaos Theory»
ridl.io
November 24, 2025 at 8:38 PM
Chaos Theory, developed primarily by experts associated with the Valdai Discussion Club, it is regularly elaborated in their reports, which underline both the concept’s evolution and its critical importance for russia’s current strategy.
ridl.io/witnesses-of...
ridl.io/witnesses-of...
Reposted by Anton Barbashin
"Russia’s current economic situation is a sustained disequilibrium—like a river that stays within its banks only because an underlying gradient keeps the water moving"
@ruboyinthehood.bsky.social
ridl.io/when-witkoff...
@ruboyinthehood.bsky.social
ridl.io/when-witkoff...
When Witkoff Closes a Door, He Opens a Window – Riddle Russia
Nicholas Trickett with the economic summary of the week (November 17−21)
ridl.io
November 21, 2025 at 1:11 PM
"Russia’s current economic situation is a sustained disequilibrium—like a river that stays within its banks only because an underlying gradient keeps the water moving"
@ruboyinthehood.bsky.social
ridl.io/when-witkoff...
@ruboyinthehood.bsky.social
ridl.io/when-witkoff...
Reposted by Anton Barbashin
In this text for ridl.io
I outline 5 core postulates of Russian "Chaos Theory" that best explains Russian foreign policy posture from the practical standpoint.
1. The old world and its rules cannot be restored.
2. Chaos is fundamentally unmanageable.
1/3
I outline 5 core postulates of Russian "Chaos Theory" that best explains Russian foreign policy posture from the practical standpoint.
1. The old world and its rules cannot be restored.
2. Chaos is fundamentally unmanageable.
1/3
November 24, 2025 at 6:28 PM
In this text for ridl.io
I outline 5 core postulates of Russian "Chaos Theory" that best explains Russian foreign policy posture from the practical standpoint.
1. The old world and its rules cannot be restored.
2. Chaos is fundamentally unmanageable.
1/3
I outline 5 core postulates of Russian "Chaos Theory" that best explains Russian foreign policy posture from the practical standpoint.
1. The old world and its rules cannot be restored.
2. Chaos is fundamentally unmanageable.
1/3
Reposted by Anton Barbashin
Good analysis: "The «chaos» concept performs a triple function: it records the already-accomplished changes in the rules of Russian foreign policy, supplies them with an intellectual explanation, and creates a broad context within which further unprincipled foreign-policy steps appear logical."
Check out how the concept of Chaos was developed and how it affects Russia's understanding of international processes and Russia's role in it.
ridl.io/witnesses-of...
3/3
ridl.io/witnesses-of...
3/3
Witnesses of Chaos – Riddle Russia
Anton Barbashin on the Five Postulates of Russia’s «Chaos Theory»
ridl.io
November 24, 2025 at 6:32 PM
Good analysis: "The «chaos» concept performs a triple function: it records the already-accomplished changes in the rules of Russian foreign policy, supplies them with an intellectual explanation, and creates a broad context within which further unprincipled foreign-policy steps appear logical."
In this text for ridl.io
I outline 5 core postulates of Russian "Chaos Theory" that best explains Russian foreign policy posture from the practical standpoint.
1. The old world and its rules cannot be restored.
2. Chaos is fundamentally unmanageable.
1/3
I outline 5 core postulates of Russian "Chaos Theory" that best explains Russian foreign policy posture from the practical standpoint.
1. The old world and its rules cannot be restored.
2. Chaos is fundamentally unmanageable.
1/3
November 24, 2025 at 6:28 PM
In this text for ridl.io
I outline 5 core postulates of Russian "Chaos Theory" that best explains Russian foreign policy posture from the practical standpoint.
1. The old world and its rules cannot be restored.
2. Chaos is fundamentally unmanageable.
1/3
I outline 5 core postulates of Russian "Chaos Theory" that best explains Russian foreign policy posture from the practical standpoint.
1. The old world and its rules cannot be restored.
2. Chaos is fundamentally unmanageable.
1/3
Reposted by Anton Barbashin
The draft US peace plan to end Russia’s war on Ukraine appeases many Russian demands. Yet Moscow will likely still find the deal unacceptable, writes @abarbashin.bsky.social @ecfreuropeansec.bsky.social
https://bit.ly/4acODzt
https://bit.ly/4acODzt
Support, tolerate, reject: The Russian response to Trump’s Ukraine peace plan
The draft US peace plan to end Russia’s war on Ukraine appeases many Russian demands. Yet Moscow will likely still find the deal unacceptable…
bit.ly
November 24, 2025 at 2:22 PM
The draft US peace plan to end Russia’s war on Ukraine appeases many Russian demands. Yet Moscow will likely still find the deal unacceptable, writes @abarbashin.bsky.social @ecfreuropeansec.bsky.social
https://bit.ly/4acODzt
https://bit.ly/4acODzt
If the 28-point plan was a rough conversion starter from the point of view of Moscow, the EU proposal is a 100% non-starter
November 23, 2025 at 7:37 PM
If the 28-point plan was a rough conversion starter from the point of view of Moscow, the EU proposal is a 100% non-starter
Ukraine & EU task: somehow agree to the lowest common denominator of the plan with the US to later see the US bring this to Moscow and have Putin reject it
November 23, 2025 at 10:42 AM
Ukraine & EU task: somehow agree to the lowest common denominator of the plan with the US to later see the US bring this to Moscow and have Putin reject it
And we are kind of back to where we were before this plan
November 22, 2025 at 6:07 PM
And we are kind of back to where we were before this plan
This EU statement reads as a de-facto rejection of 28 point plan. "The plan is great but let's change all the key points".
November 22, 2025 at 2:56 PM
This EU statement reads as a de-facto rejection of 28 point plan. "The plan is great but let's change all the key points".
Reposted by Anton Barbashin
This year Federal Assembly will once more go without Putin's message. Reason: stalled peace talks over Ukraine and Putin’s so-far disappointed hopes for Donald Trump and his administration.
He doesn't want to comment about it
ridl.io/direct-line-...
He doesn't want to comment about it
ridl.io/direct-line-...
Direct Line Without a Message – Riddle Russia
Andrey Pertsev sums up the political week (November 10−14)
ridl.io
November 21, 2025 at 1:17 PM
This year Federal Assembly will once more go without Putin's message. Reason: stalled peace talks over Ukraine and Putin’s so-far disappointed hopes for Donald Trump and his administration.
He doesn't want to comment about it
ridl.io/direct-line-...
He doesn't want to comment about it
ridl.io/direct-line-...
In this @ecfr.eu piece I argue that EU should offer Ukraine a 5 year plan of financial and military support. Putin thinks that Russia can outlive Ukraine. EU can certainly outlive Putin's regime.
ecfr.eu/article/the-...
ecfr.eu/article/the-...
The long game: How Europe can outlast Russia’s war of attrition
While Trump lingers indecisively and Moscow bets on Europe falling apart, the only logical strategy for the EU is to double down on its support for Kyiv…
ecfr.eu
November 22, 2025 at 9:57 AM
In this @ecfr.eu piece I argue that EU should offer Ukraine a 5 year plan of financial and military support. Putin thinks that Russia can outlive Ukraine. EU can certainly outlive Putin's regime.
ecfr.eu/article/the-...
ecfr.eu/article/the-...
I am fairly certain Putin will agree to part with all of the frozen Russian assets and agree to giving Trump 146% profits as long ad Russian gains are recognised legally
November 22, 2025 at 8:34 AM
I am fairly certain Putin will agree to part with all of the frozen Russian assets and agree to giving Trump 146% profits as long ad Russian gains are recognised legally
The fact that Putin said that he is ready to work with 28 point plan does not mean he accepts it.
What it means that Putin is ready to discuss making it(as close as possible) into his own list of demands. The ones Lavrov gave Rubio after which Trump imposed oil sanctions
What it means that Putin is ready to discuss making it(as close as possible) into his own list of demands. The ones Lavrov gave Rubio after which Trump imposed oil sanctions
November 22, 2025 at 7:49 AM
The fact that Putin said that he is ready to work with 28 point plan does not mean he accepts it.
What it means that Putin is ready to discuss making it(as close as possible) into his own list of demands. The ones Lavrov gave Rubio after which Trump imposed oil sanctions
What it means that Putin is ready to discuss making it(as close as possible) into his own list of demands. The ones Lavrov gave Rubio after which Trump imposed oil sanctions
Broader Russian industrial economy is, in the words of Russian specialists, now stuck between stagnation and outright decline. The collapse in demand for investment goods foreshadows a much larger fall.
"Russia’s current economic situation is a sustained disequilibrium—like a river that stays within its banks only because an underlying gradient keeps the water moving"
@ruboyinthehood.bsky.social
ridl.io/when-witkoff...
@ruboyinthehood.bsky.social
ridl.io/when-witkoff...
When Witkoff Closes a Door, He Opens a Window – Riddle Russia
Nicholas Trickett with the economic summary of the week (November 17−21)
ridl.io
November 21, 2025 at 4:59 PM
Broader Russian industrial economy is, in the words of Russian specialists, now stuck between stagnation and outright decline. The collapse in demand for investment goods foreshadows a much larger fall.
It may turn out that the future of Ukraine would be decided by Belgian Prime Minister Bart De Weve. Belgium can allow EU using frozen Russian assets thus giving the lifeline to support Ukraine for months. Without US and EU having no funds, it would be impossible
November 21, 2025 at 4:58 PM
It may turn out that the future of Ukraine would be decided by Belgian Prime Minister Bart De Weve. Belgium can allow EU using frozen Russian assets thus giving the lifeline to support Ukraine for months. Without US and EU having no funds, it would be impossible
Reposted by Anton Barbashin
A pivotal driver in Moscow’s ties with MENA region is the opportunism and pragmatism of Middle Eastern political elites. They do not see the Ukraine war as their fight; instead, they regard it as a wellspring of fresh political and economic upsides
ridl.io/five-princip...
ridl.io/five-princip...
Five Principles of Russia’s New Middle East Policy – Riddle Russia
Nikolai Kozhanov on Russia
ridl.io
November 14, 2025 at 4:18 PM
A pivotal driver in Moscow’s ties with MENA region is the opportunism and pragmatism of Middle Eastern political elites. They do not see the Ukraine war as their fight; instead, they regard it as a wellspring of fresh political and economic upsides
ridl.io/five-princip...
ridl.io/five-princip...
This year Federal Assembly will once more go without Putin's message. Reason: stalled peace talks over Ukraine and Putin’s so-far disappointed hopes for Donald Trump and his administration.
He doesn't want to comment about it
ridl.io/direct-line-...
He doesn't want to comment about it
ridl.io/direct-line-...
Direct Line Without a Message – Riddle Russia
Andrey Pertsev sums up the political week (November 10−14)
ridl.io
November 21, 2025 at 1:17 PM
This year Federal Assembly will once more go without Putin's message. Reason: stalled peace talks over Ukraine and Putin’s so-far disappointed hopes for Donald Trump and his administration.
He doesn't want to comment about it
ridl.io/direct-line-...
He doesn't want to comment about it
ridl.io/direct-line-...
"Russia’s current economic situation is a sustained disequilibrium—like a river that stays within its banks only because an underlying gradient keeps the water moving"
@ruboyinthehood.bsky.social
ridl.io/when-witkoff...
@ruboyinthehood.bsky.social
ridl.io/when-witkoff...
When Witkoff Closes a Door, He Opens a Window – Riddle Russia
Nicholas Trickett with the economic summary of the week (November 17−21)
ridl.io
November 21, 2025 at 1:11 PM
"Russia’s current economic situation is a sustained disequilibrium—like a river that stays within its banks only because an underlying gradient keeps the water moving"
@ruboyinthehood.bsky.social
ridl.io/when-witkoff...
@ruboyinthehood.bsky.social
ridl.io/when-witkoff...
Putin’s statements today indicate that he has no wish to negotiate with Zelensky, Russia is winning and Kremlin will pursue maximalist goals without any discounts
November 20, 2025 at 10:31 PM
Putin’s statements today indicate that he has no wish to negotiate with Zelensky, Russia is winning and Kremlin will pursue maximalist goals without any discounts
Reposted by Anton Barbashin
Since 2022 Russia became much more vulnerable in the Middle East. Paradoxically it led to the transformation of Russia's role giving it certain agility and appeal.
ridl.io/five-princip...
ridl.io/five-princip...
Five Principles of Russia’s New Middle East Policy – Riddle Russia
Nikolai Kozhanov on Russia
ridl.io
November 17, 2025 at 8:56 AM
Since 2022 Russia became much more vulnerable in the Middle East. Paradoxically it led to the transformation of Russia's role giving it certain agility and appeal.
ridl.io/five-princip...
ridl.io/five-princip...