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AEA Journals
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The American Economic Association is a non-profit, non-partisan, scholarly association dedicated to the discussion and publication of economics research.
Forthcoming in AEJ: Applied Economics: "Early Grade Retention Harms Adult Earnings" by Jiee Zhong. www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=...
Early Grade Retention Harms Adult Earnings
(Forthcoming Article) - This paper provides new causal evidence on the effects of grade retention on educational attainment, behavioral outcomes, and labor market performance by analyzing Texas’s read...
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November 21, 2025 at 1:17 PM
Forthcoming in AEJ: Microeconomics: "The Economics of Discriminatory Job Reservations" by James P. Choy. www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=...
The Economics of Discriminatory Job Reservations
(Forthcoming Article) - A society reserves certain jobs for members of a politically dominant social group to maximize the wages of workers in that group. Through an appropriate choice of reserved job...
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November 20, 2025 at 4:14 PM
Forthcoming in AEJ: Economic Policy: "The Effect of Deactivating Facebook and Instagram on Users’ Emotional State" by Hunt Allcott, Matthew Gentzkow, Benjamin Wittenbrink, et al. www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=...
The Effect of Deactivating Facebook and Instagram on Users’ Emotional State
(Forthcoming Article) - We estimate the effect of social media deactivation on users’ emotional state in two large randomized experiments before the 2020 U.S. election. People who deactivated Facebook...
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November 20, 2025 at 3:29 PM
Forthcoming in the AER: "The Price of War" by Jonathan Federle, André Meier, Gernot J. Müller, Willi Mutschler, and Moritz Schularick. www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=...
The Price of War
(Forthcoming Article) - We assemble a new data set spanning 150 years and 60 countries to study the economic toll of war. A war of average intensity is associated with an output drop of close to 10 pe...
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November 20, 2025 at 2:44 PM
Housing market frictions and relaxed credit conditions explain as much as 70 percent of the 2000s boom in house prices, say researchers at NYU Stern and Boston University. Their findings offer important lessons for macroprudential policies. #econsky www.aeaweb.org/research/cre...
Market segmentation and housing prices
Did relaxed credit standards drive the housing boom that led to the Great Recession?
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November 20, 2025 at 2:43 PM
Forthcoming book review in the JEL: "Patenting Life: Tales from the Front Lines of Intellectual Property and the New Biology by Jorge Goldstein" by Josh Lerner. www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=...
Patenting Life: Tales from the Front Lines of Intellectual Property and the New Biology by Jorge Goldstein
(Forthcoming Article)
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November 19, 2025 at 3:29 PM
Forthcoming in AEJ: Economic Policy: "Collective Bargaining Rights, Policing, and Civilian Deaths" by Jamein P. Cunningham and Rob Gillezeau. www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=...
Collective Bargaining Rights, Policing, and Civilian Deaths
(Forthcoming Article) - Using an event-study design, we examine whether states' introduction of duty to bargain requirements for police unions led to meaningful changes in civilians killed by law enfo...
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November 19, 2025 at 2:34 PM
Forthcoming in the AER: "The Value of Clean Water: Experimental Evidence from Rural India" by Fiona Burlig, Amir Jina, and Anant Sudarshan. www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=...
The Value of Clean Water: Experimental Evidence from Rural India
(Forthcoming Article) - Over 2 billion people lack clean drinking water. Existing solutions face high costs (piped water) or low demand (point-ofuse chlorine). Using a 60,000 household cluster-randomi...
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November 19, 2025 at 1:49 PM
Forthcoming in the AER: "What You Don’t Know May Be Good For You" by Johannes Hörner and Larry Samuelson. www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=...
What You Don’t Know May Be Good For You
(Forthcoming Article) - We consider an economy in which long-lived experts are matched with short-lived clients. Experts choose the type of client with whom they match, unobserved by the market. The i...
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November 18, 2025 at 3:04 PM
Forthcoming in AEJ: Macroeconomics: "TFPR: Dispersion and Cyclicality" by Russell Cooper and Ozgen Ozturk. www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=...
TFPR: Dispersion and Cyclicality
(Forthcoming Article) - This paper studies the determinants of the cyclicality of TFPR. The distribution of TFPR is dependent upon exogenous shocks and the endogenous determination of prices. An overl...
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November 17, 2025 at 3:44 PM
Forthcoming in the AER: "Sequential Cursed Equilibrium" by Shani Cohen and Shengwu Li. www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=...
Sequential Cursed Equilibrium
(Forthcoming Article) - We propose an extensive-form solution concept, with players that neglect information from hypothetical events, but make inferences from observed events. Our concept modifies cu...
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November 17, 2025 at 3:09 PM
Forthcoming in AEJ: Microeconomics: "Rational Misspecification: Framework and Applications" by Ran Eilat and Kfir Eliaz. www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=...
Rational Misspecification: Framework and Applications
(Forthcoming Article) - This paper proposes a framework for assessing whether misspecified decision makers would be willing to pay for information that can potentially make them less misspecified. We ...
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November 17, 2025 at 2:13 PM
Forthcoming in AER: Insights: "The Missing Middle Managers: Labor Costs, Firm Structure, and Development" by Jonas Hjort, Hannes Malmberg, and Todd Schoellman. www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=...
The Missing Middle Managers: Labor Costs, Firm Structure, and Development
(Forthcoming Article) - Using data obtained from human resources consulting firms, we document the cost to large firms of hiring managers and business professionals in 146 countries worldwide. The ave...
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November 14, 2025 at 2:56 PM
Forthcoming in AEJ: Microeconomics: "Data Linkages and Privacy Regulation" by Rossella Argenziano and Alessandro Bonatti. www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=...
Data Linkages and Privacy Regulation
(Forthcoming Article) - We assess the efficacy of privacy regulation when consumers are privacy conscious. We develop a model of data linkages where a consumer interacts sequentially with two firms: o...
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November 14, 2025 at 2:09 PM
Forthcoming in the AER: "Dynamics of the Long Term Housing Yield: Evidence from Natural Experiments" by Verónica Bäcker-Peral, Jonathon Hazell, and Atif Mian. www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=...
Dynamics of the Long Term Housing Yield: Evidence from Natural Experiments
(Forthcoming Article) - Each month, a fraction of UK property leases are extended by 90 years or more. We construct a new dataset using thousands of these natural experiments since 2000, and estimate ...
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November 14, 2025 at 1:25 PM
Bush’s 2002 steel tariffs created persistent negative employment effects in manufacturing industries that rely on steel as an input, despite being removed after just 18 months, say researchers at the University of Tennessee and Chongqing University. #econsky www.aeaweb.org/research/cha...
Tariffs and local labor markets
The impact of the 2002 Bush steel tariffs on jobs in steel-intensive industries.
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November 13, 2025 at 3:27 PM
Forthcoming in AEJ: Macroeconomics: "Shocks and Exchange Rates in Small Open Economies" by Vito Cormun and Pierre De Leo. www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=...
Shocks and Exchange Rates in Small Open Economies
(Forthcoming Article) - We separately identify domestic and external sources of exchange rate fluctuations in a large sample of small open economies. We find that external shocks lead to large and pre...
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November 11, 2025 at 3:14 PM
Forthcoming in the AER: "Financial Frictions: Micro vs Macro Volatility" by Renato Faccini, Seungcheol Lee, Ralph Luetticke, Morten O. Ravn, and Tobias Renkin. www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=...
Financial Frictions: Micro vs Macro Volatility
(Forthcoming Article) - We argue that consumer credit spreads matter for household choices and that time-varying spreads have important distributional consequences. Studying Danish household data, we ...
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November 11, 2025 at 2:37 PM
Forthcoming in the AER: "“Potential” and the Gender Promotion Gap" by Alan Benson, Danielle Li, and Kelly Shue. www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=...
“Potential” and the Gender Promotion Gap
(Forthcoming Article) - We show that subjective assessments of employee “potential” contribute to gender gaps in promotion and pay. Using data on 29,809 management-track employees from a large retail ...
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November 10, 2025 at 2:51 PM
Forthcoming in AEJ: Microeconomics: "Welfare of Competitive Price Discrimination with Captive Consumers" by Yanlin Chen, Xianwen Shi, and Jun Zhang. www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=...
Welfare of Competitive Price Discrimination with Captive Consumers
(Forthcoming Article) - We study the welfare effects of price discrimination in a duopoly with both captive and contested consumers. Using a unified information design approach, we characterize the be...
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November 10, 2025 at 2:06 PM
Forthcoming in AEJ: Macroeconomics: "Time for Growth" by Lars Boerner and Battista Severgnini. www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=...
Time for Growth
(Forthcoming Article) - This paper investigates the adoption, diffusion, and long-run impact of the public mechanical clock, one of the most important high-technology machines in history, on European ...
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November 10, 2025 at 1:21 PM
Forthcoming in AEJ: Microeconomics: "The Combinatorial Multi-Round Ascending Auction" by Bernhard Kasberger and Alexander Teytelboym. www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=...
The Combinatorial Multi-Round Ascending Auction
(Forthcoming Article) - The Combinatorial Multi-Round Ascending Auction (CMRA) is a new auction format used in recent European spectrum auctions. We show that an auction-specific version of truthful b...
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November 7, 2025 at 3:45 PM
Forthcoming in AER: Insights: "Survivors’ Mental Health and the Protective Role of Income Stability" by Itzik Fadlon, Astrid S. Fugleholm, and Torben H. Nielsen. www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=...
Survivors’ Mental Health and the Protective Role of Income Stability
(Forthcoming Article) - We use administrative records on the universe of Danish households to characterize survivors’ mental health following their spouse’s death. We provide visually clear evidence f...
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November 7, 2025 at 3:00 PM
Forthcoming in the AER: "A Theory of Supply Function Choice and Aggregate Supply" by Joel P. Flynn, George Nikolakoudis, and Karthik A. Sastry. www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=...
A Theory of Supply Function Choice and Aggregate Supply
(Forthcoming Article) - Modern theories of aggregate supply are built on the foundation that firms set prices and commit to producing whatever the market demands. We remove this strategic restriction ...
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November 7, 2025 at 2:18 PM