Aidan Milliff
@aidanmilliff.com
Political scientist
https://www.aidanmilliff.com
https://www.aidanmilliff.com
Time is a flat circle, episode 134:
Warren Zevon ad-libbed Bibi Netanyahu's name into a live performance of Mohammed’s Radio shortly after he was first elected PM ... 30 years ago.
archive.org/details/wz19...
Warren Zevon ad-libbed Bibi Netanyahu's name into a live performance of Mohammed’s Radio shortly after he was first elected PM ... 30 years ago.
archive.org/details/wz19...
archive.org
January 16, 2026 at 10:15 PM
Time is a flat circle, episode 134:
Warren Zevon ad-libbed Bibi Netanyahu's name into a live performance of Mohammed’s Radio shortly after he was first elected PM ... 30 years ago.
archive.org/details/wz19...
Warren Zevon ad-libbed Bibi Netanyahu's name into a live performance of Mohammed’s Radio shortly after he was first elected PM ... 30 years ago.
archive.org/details/wz19...
Reposted by Aidan Milliff
From November 2025 -
Estimating the Impact of Drone Strikes on Civilians Using Call Detail Records - https://cup.org/4qy0az4
- Paolo Bertolotti, @aidanmilliff.com, Fotini Christia & Ali Jadbabaie
#OpenAccess
Estimating the Impact of Drone Strikes on Civilians Using Call Detail Records - https://cup.org/4qy0az4
- Paolo Bertolotti, @aidanmilliff.com, Fotini Christia & Ali Jadbabaie
#OpenAccess
January 11, 2026 at 4:10 PM
From November 2025 -
Estimating the Impact of Drone Strikes on Civilians Using Call Detail Records - https://cup.org/4qy0az4
- Paolo Bertolotti, @aidanmilliff.com, Fotini Christia & Ali Jadbabaie
#OpenAccess
Estimating the Impact of Drone Strikes on Civilians Using Call Detail Records - https://cup.org/4qy0az4
- Paolo Bertolotti, @aidanmilliff.com, Fotini Christia & Ali Jadbabaie
#OpenAccess
Exciting new paper on analysis of interviews at scale!
As I've argued elsewhere (APSR, 2024), I think it's important to put humans back in the loop as an additional step *after* the LLM, but this method could easily be extended to do that.
academic.oup.com/ej/advance-a...
As I've argued elsewhere (APSR, 2024), I think it's important to put humans back in the loop as an additional step *after* the LLM, but this method could easily be extended to do that.
academic.oup.com/ej/advance-a...
Qualitative Analysis with Large-N: A New Method with an Application to Aspirations in Bangladesh*
Abstract. The qualitative analysis of open-ended interviews has vast potential in economics but has found limited use. This is partly because the interpret
academic.oup.com
January 9, 2026 at 3:24 PM
Exciting new paper on analysis of interviews at scale!
As I've argued elsewhere (APSR, 2024), I think it's important to put humans back in the loop as an additional step *after* the LLM, but this method could easily be extended to do that.
academic.oup.com/ej/advance-a...
As I've argued elsewhere (APSR, 2024), I think it's important to put humans back in the loop as an additional step *after* the LLM, but this method could easily be extended to do that.
academic.oup.com/ej/advance-a...
I wonder if it’s related to the McKinley/expanding territory fandom
www.newyorker.com/magazine/202...
www.newyorker.com/magazine/202...
January 6, 2026 at 1:12 PM
I wonder if it’s related to the McKinley/expanding territory fandom
www.newyorker.com/magazine/202...
www.newyorker.com/magazine/202...
Reposted by Aidan Milliff
I feel like I haven’t even been properly lied to about the purposes of this war
January 3, 2026 at 9:13 AM
I feel like I haven’t even been properly lied to about the purposes of this war
Submit your papers *by 1/7* for SoWEPS-10 at FSU.
www.soweps.org/call-for-pap...
SoWEPS is a great chance for advanced grad students and junior faculty to get feedback on developed projects.
We'd love to see you in Tallahassee this March!
www.soweps.org/call-for-pap...
SoWEPS is a great chance for advanced grad students and junior faculty to get feedback on developed projects.
We'd love to see you in Tallahassee this March!
January 2, 2026 at 5:35 PM
Submit your papers *by 1/7* for SoWEPS-10 at FSU.
www.soweps.org/call-for-pap...
SoWEPS is a great chance for advanced grad students and junior faculty to get feedback on developed projects.
We'd love to see you in Tallahassee this March!
www.soweps.org/call-for-pap...
SoWEPS is a great chance for advanced grad students and junior faculty to get feedback on developed projects.
We'd love to see you in Tallahassee this March!
“America’s openness to the world’s most ambitious people — and its unique ability to absorb and make use of human talent — has perhaps been its most potent form of soft power. Why try to defeat the world’s richest country when you might have the chance to join it and reap its ample rewards?”
I went to Texas to write about the sudden end of one of America's most successful experiments: the six decades of welcoming India's most educated and ambitious citizens. www.nytimes.com/2025/12/29/o...
Opinion | One of America’s Most Successful Experiments Is Coming to a Shuddering Halt
www.nytimes.com
December 31, 2025 at 6:04 PM
“America’s openness to the world’s most ambitious people — and its unique ability to absorb and make use of human talent — has perhaps been its most potent form of soft power. Why try to defeat the world’s richest country when you might have the chance to join it and reap its ample rewards?”
Reposted by Aidan Milliff
I went to Texas to write about the sudden end of one of America's most successful experiments: the six decades of welcoming India's most educated and ambitious citizens. www.nytimes.com/2025/12/29/o...
Opinion | One of America’s Most Successful Experiments Is Coming to a Shuddering Halt
www.nytimes.com
December 29, 2025 at 7:25 PM
I went to Texas to write about the sudden end of one of America's most successful experiments: the six decades of welcoming India's most educated and ambitious citizens. www.nytimes.com/2025/12/29/o...
Reposted by Aidan Milliff
Not planning to do an overall year wrap up but do want to share some work on US strikes in Somalia over the year.
By our tracking (not yet updated for holiday strikes), it is the peak of the campaign and may surpass the peak of strikes in Pakistan.
1/7
www.newamerica.org/future-secur...
By our tracking (not yet updated for holiday strikes), it is the peak of the campaign and may surpass the peak of strikes in Pakistan.
1/7
www.newamerica.org/future-secur...
December 30, 2025 at 1:18 PM
Not planning to do an overall year wrap up but do want to share some work on US strikes in Somalia over the year.
By our tracking (not yet updated for holiday strikes), it is the peak of the campaign and may surpass the peak of strikes in Pakistan.
1/7
www.newamerica.org/future-secur...
By our tracking (not yet updated for holiday strikes), it is the peak of the campaign and may surpass the peak of strikes in Pakistan.
1/7
www.newamerica.org/future-secur...
Reposted by Aidan Milliff
“NCAR has played a greater role in advancing weather prediction & atmospheric modeling than perhaps any other single entity in the world,” says @weatherwest.bsky.social
Dismantling NCAR would be “like taking a sledgehammer to the keystone holding up our scientific understanding of the planet.” KH
Dismantling NCAR would be “like taking a sledgehammer to the keystone holding up our scientific understanding of the planet.” KH
Trump administration plans to break up largest federal climate research center
Russ Vought, director of the White House Office of Management and Budget, said the National Science Foundation "will be breaking up" the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Colorado.
www.nbcnews.com
December 17, 2025 at 8:01 PM
“NCAR has played a greater role in advancing weather prediction & atmospheric modeling than perhaps any other single entity in the world,” says @weatherwest.bsky.social
Dismantling NCAR would be “like taking a sledgehammer to the keystone holding up our scientific understanding of the planet.” KH
Dismantling NCAR would be “like taking a sledgehammer to the keystone holding up our scientific understanding of the planet.” KH
Reposted by Aidan Milliff
Friends: University of Minnesota's Institute on the Environment is hiring...and definitely looking for social scientists. Apply!
December 17, 2025 at 2:32 PM
Friends: University of Minnesota's Institute on the Environment is hiring...and definitely looking for social scientists. Apply!
Just received a rejection on a paper that was under review for 8 months.
The rejection part is totally fair.
Waiting 11% of the tenure clock for a first decision on a paper, on the other hand....
The rejection part is totally fair.
Waiting 11% of the tenure clock for a first decision on a paper, on the other hand....
December 3, 2025 at 2:19 PM
Just received a rejection on a paper that was under review for 8 months.
The rejection part is totally fair.
Waiting 11% of the tenure clock for a first decision on a paper, on the other hand....
The rejection part is totally fair.
Waiting 11% of the tenure clock for a first decision on a paper, on the other hand....
Last class of the semester so grad students get to take it easy with questions like:
- What does ethical research (not) look like?
- What is professional responsibility?
- What is the nature of goodness?
- What does ethical research (not) look like?
- What is professional responsibility?
- What is the nature of goodness?
December 2, 2025 at 3:02 PM
Last class of the semester so grad students get to take it easy with questions like:
- What does ethical research (not) look like?
- What is professional responsibility?
- What is the nature of goodness?
- What does ethical research (not) look like?
- What is professional responsibility?
- What is the nature of goodness?
🚨 New in @bjpols.bsky.social :
“Estimating the Impact of Drone Strikes on Civilians Using Call Detail Records.”
By Bertolotti, Milliff, Christia & Jadbabaie.
We use 12 billion call records from Yemen to measure the civilian consequences of drone warfare.
1/6
“Estimating the Impact of Drone Strikes on Civilians Using Call Detail Records.”
By Bertolotti, Milliff, Christia & Jadbabaie.
We use 12 billion call records from Yemen to measure the civilian consequences of drone warfare.
1/6
November 4, 2025 at 3:18 PM
🚨 New in @bjpols.bsky.social :
“Estimating the Impact of Drone Strikes on Civilians Using Call Detail Records.”
By Bertolotti, Milliff, Christia & Jadbabaie.
We use 12 billion call records from Yemen to measure the civilian consequences of drone warfare.
1/6
“Estimating the Impact of Drone Strikes on Civilians Using Call Detail Records.”
By Bertolotti, Milliff, Christia & Jadbabaie.
We use 12 billion call records from Yemen to measure the civilian consequences of drone warfare.
1/6
Reposted by Aidan Milliff
NEW -
Estimating the Impact of Drone Strikes on Civilians Using Call Detail Records - https://cup.org/4qy0az4
- Paolo Bertolotti, @aidanmilliff.com, Fotini Christia & Ali Jadbabaie
#OpenAccess
Estimating the Impact of Drone Strikes on Civilians Using Call Detail Records - https://cup.org/4qy0az4
- Paolo Bertolotti, @aidanmilliff.com, Fotini Christia & Ali Jadbabaie
#OpenAccess
November 4, 2025 at 11:10 AM
NEW -
Estimating the Impact of Drone Strikes on Civilians Using Call Detail Records - https://cup.org/4qy0az4
- Paolo Bertolotti, @aidanmilliff.com, Fotini Christia & Ali Jadbabaie
#OpenAccess
Estimating the Impact of Drone Strikes on Civilians Using Call Detail Records - https://cup.org/4qy0az4
- Paolo Bertolotti, @aidanmilliff.com, Fotini Christia & Ali Jadbabaie
#OpenAccess
The recording industry in Kenya is legit fascinating. There was a period of time in maybe the 70s when labels were popping up at the *county* level, recording folk songs on 45s for hyper-local distribution.
Very pleased to receive my copy of this new, important volume, in which I offer a brief history of musical platformization in Kenya.
Oh and this book is *open access*! Starting next week you can download a free copy from Luminos — luminosoa.org/books/e/10.1...
Oh and this book is *open access*! Starting next week you can download a free copy from Luminos — luminosoa.org/books/e/10.1...
October 16, 2025 at 1:47 PM
The recording industry in Kenya is legit fascinating. There was a period of time in maybe the 70s when labels were popping up at the *county* level, recording folk songs on 45s for hyper-local distribution.
Southside Weekly holding strong as Chicago's best reported local paper (with the Guardian in ironic second place).
This South Side Weekly report on the Chicago building raid is well worth reading. Most striking to me are the indications of collusion between federal authorities and the building owner and management to effect a mass eviction at the blighted property. southsideweekly.com/federal-agen...
October 8, 2025 at 12:56 PM
Southside Weekly holding strong as Chicago's best reported local paper (with the Guardian in ironic second place).
Reposted by Aidan Milliff
Despite the grim topic, this is a very good paper: monuments that signal white supremacy can substitute performative violence and thus reduce it.
www.cambridge.org/core/journal...
www.cambridge.org/core/journal...
Political Symbols and Social Order: Confederate Monuments and Performative Violence in the Post-Reconstruction U.S. South | American Political Science Review | Cambridge Core
Political Symbols and Social Order: Confederate Monuments and Performative Violence in the Post-Reconstruction U.S. South
www.cambridge.org
October 7, 2025 at 1:43 PM
Despite the grim topic, this is a very good paper: monuments that signal white supremacy can substitute performative violence and thus reduce it.
www.cambridge.org/core/journal...
www.cambridge.org/core/journal...
Very short summary of this paper:
September 19, 2025 at 7:25 PM
Very short summary of this paper:
Reposted by Aidan Milliff
Very excited that my paper with @katakeith.bsky.social is now out in @polanalysis.bsky.social. We investigate whether LLMs actually follow the instructions/definitions provided in codebooks, propose some diagnostics, and release a new evaluation dataset.
www.cambridge.org/core/journal...
www.cambridge.org/core/journal...
Codebook LLMs: Evaluating LLMs as Measurement Tools for Political Science Concepts | Political Analysis | Cambridge Core
Codebook LLMs: Evaluating LLMs as Measurement Tools for Political Science Concepts
www.cambridge.org
September 19, 2025 at 1:45 PM
Very excited that my paper with @katakeith.bsky.social is now out in @polanalysis.bsky.social. We investigate whether LLMs actually follow the instructions/definitions provided in codebooks, propose some diagnostics, and release a new evaluation dataset.
www.cambridge.org/core/journal...
www.cambridge.org/core/journal...
It's important to remember the 🐺 Wolf Number 🐺
In 2021 @today.yougov.com found that 12% of Americans said they'd beat a wolf in an unarmed fight ⁉️
When you see a survey response split 85/15, remember: 12% of people will say literally anything on a survey.
today.yougov.com/society/arti...
In 2021 @today.yougov.com found that 12% of Americans said they'd beat a wolf in an unarmed fight ⁉️
When you see a survey response split 85/15, remember: 12% of people will say literally anything on a survey.
today.yougov.com/society/arti...
September 17, 2025 at 1:41 PM
It's important to remember the 🐺 Wolf Number 🐺
In 2021 @today.yougov.com found that 12% of Americans said they'd beat a wolf in an unarmed fight ⁉️
When you see a survey response split 85/15, remember: 12% of people will say literally anything on a survey.
today.yougov.com/society/arti...
In 2021 @today.yougov.com found that 12% of Americans said they'd beat a wolf in an unarmed fight ⁉️
When you see a survey response split 85/15, remember: 12% of people will say literally anything on a survey.
today.yougov.com/society/arti...
Modest #APSA2025 proposal:
Move all panels, receptions, meetings, etc. to Stanley Park. Just describe the tree you are meeting under, and count on everyone to find you.
Move all panels, receptions, meetings, etc. to Stanley Park. Just describe the tree you are meeting under, and count on everyone to find you.
September 11, 2025 at 5:03 PM
Modest #APSA2025 proposal:
Move all panels, receptions, meetings, etc. to Stanley Park. Just describe the tree you are meeting under, and count on everyone to find you.
Move all panels, receptions, meetings, etc. to Stanley Park. Just describe the tree you are meeting under, and count on everyone to find you.
🤔
(I really don't think India is interested in the opportunity to be a treaty ally with the US if they have to drop historic partners who aren't currently imposing tariffs on their exports to do so)
(I really don't think India is interested in the opportunity to be a treaty ally with the US if they have to drop historic partners who aren't currently imposing tariffs on their exports to do so)
September 6, 2025 at 2:24 PM
🤔
(I really don't think India is interested in the opportunity to be a treaty ally with the US if they have to drop historic partners who aren't currently imposing tariffs on their exports to do so)
(I really don't think India is interested in the opportunity to be a treaty ally with the US if they have to drop historic partners who aren't currently imposing tariffs on their exports to do so)
Reposted by Aidan Milliff
So far during the second Trump administration, this puts the US military at:
—1,000+ air strikes in Yemen (in March-April)
—65+ air strikes in Somalia
—5 air strikes and 2 JSOC ground raids in Syria
—1 night of B-2 strikes on 3 sites in Iran
—1 air strike in Iraq
—1 air strike in the Caribbean
—1,000+ air strikes in Yemen (in March-April)
—65+ air strikes in Somalia
—5 air strikes and 2 JSOC ground raids in Syria
—1 night of B-2 strikes on 3 sites in Iran
—1 air strike in Iraq
—1 air strike in the Caribbean
Rubio’s tweet announcing a US military strike somewhere in the Caribbean…if I’m not mistaken, first combat action by SOUTHCOM since the Clinton administration called off the invasion of Haiti three decades ago.
September 3, 2025 at 12:12 AM
So far during the second Trump administration, this puts the US military at:
—1,000+ air strikes in Yemen (in March-April)
—65+ air strikes in Somalia
—5 air strikes and 2 JSOC ground raids in Syria
—1 night of B-2 strikes on 3 sites in Iran
—1 air strike in Iraq
—1 air strike in the Caribbean
—1,000+ air strikes in Yemen (in March-April)
—65+ air strikes in Somalia
—5 air strikes and 2 JSOC ground raids in Syria
—1 night of B-2 strikes on 3 sites in Iran
—1 air strike in Iraq
—1 air strike in the Caribbean