Author | Lightnews

Alaskans for Sustainable Budgets @ak4sb.bsky.social · 31m

Looking at the same data, the second calculates the avg production required over the remainder of the FY to meet F'cast. With 67% of FY26 remaining, the avg level needed over the rest to meet the FY26 F'cast is 485kbd, 6% above current month levels.

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Alaskans for Sustainable Budgets @ak4sb.bsky.social · 31m

The Thursday Charts| We publish two charts Thursdays. #akleg

Using the prior yr's production profile as a baseline, the first charts YTD production levels compared w/the most recent F'cast (now SPRING25). W/33% of FY26 done, YTD avg (red) running -15kbd (-3%) v. F'cast.

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Alaskans for Sustainable Budgets @ak4sb.bsky.social · 18h

The Wednesday Chart| To help better understand the primary market for ANS, we look at the supply to USWC refiners each Wed:

YTD 2025 avg USWC (approx % of pre (2019)- and post (2022)-COVID levels):
> Crude demand: 86% & 95%;
> Domestic share: 75% & 86%.
#akleg

Alaskans for Sustainable Budgets @ak4sb.bsky.social · 20h

ICYMI. This Week's Alaska Landmine Column| This week, we focus on three issues: the size of Alaska's potential tax base, the need for oil tax reforms, and the impact on Alaska families of replacing PFD cuts with much less regressive taxes. #akleg buff.ly/oSnQZHH

Alaskans for Sustainable Budgets @ak4sb.bsky.social · 22h

The 8:35a Chart| Given the importance of Permanent Fund returns to #AKrev levels, we have developed a second morning chart focusing on S&P 500 5-, 3- & 1-yr returns v the PFC's. #akleg

* 5-yr: S&P 18.33% v PFC 8.87%
* 3-yr: S&P 20.88% v PFC 7.95%
* 1-yr: S&P 16.07% v PFC 8.64%

Alaskans for Sustainable Budgets @ak4sb.bsky.social · 23h

The 8:30a Chart| To provide context to current $$oil, we publish daily (ex-Su) a running avg of FY26-32 $$ANS, Brent & WTI actual+futures. Projected ANS v. SPRING25 F'cast:

> FY26 ⬆️ $2 (+$116mil UGF)
> FY27 ⬇️ $2 (-$72mil)
> FY28-32 ⬆️ $1 (avg annual +$36mil)
#akleg

Alaskans for Sustainable Budgets @ak4sb.bsky.social · 1d

This Wk's Top 3 P'cast| Those pushing for more spending should say how they propose to pay for it, why one of those pushing PFD Cuts is the very definition of hypocrisy & finally, something we agree on with Jon Faulkner. #akleg

The Weekly Top 3 (10.27.2025)

Those pushing for more spending should say how they propose to pay for it, why one of those pushing PFD Cuts is the very definition of hypocrisy & finally, something we agree on with Jon Faulkner

buff.ly

Alaskans for Sustainable Budgets @ak4sb.bsky.social · 1d

This Wk's Top 3 P'cast| Those pushing for more spending should say how they propose to pay for it, why one of those pushing PFD Cuts is the very definition of hypocrisy & finally, something we agree on with Jon Faulkner. #akleg

The Weekly Top 3 (10.27.2025)

Those pushing for more spending should say how they propose to pay for it, why one of those pushing PFD Cuts is the very definition of hypocrisy & finally, something we agree on with Jon Faulkner

buff.ly

Alaskans for Sustainable Budgets @ak4sb.bsky.social · 1d

ICYMI. This Week's Friday Column| This week, we focus on three issues: the size of Alaska's potential tax base, the need for oil tax reforms, and the impact on Alaska families of replacing PFD cuts with much less regressive taxes. #akleg buff.ly/jxYmjR6

The Friday column: Three things

The size of Alaska's potential tax base, the need for oil tax reforms, and the impact on Alaska families of replacing PFD cuts with much less regressive taxes

bgkeithley.substack.com

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Alaskans for Sustainable Budgets @ak4sb.bsky.social · 1d

🤔 Using the latest ACS (Census Bureau) 5-year data, the effective tax rate on median household income using PFD cuts varies by #akleg House District from 2.90% (HD 9) to 9.36% (HD 40). The average is 4.86%. The average using a broad-based tax instead would be ~4.13%.

Alaskans for Sustainable Budgets @ak4sb.bsky.social · 1d

The 8:35a Chart| Given the importance of Permanent Fund returns to #AKrev levels, we have developed a second morning chart focusing on S&P 500 5-, 3- & 1-yr returns v the PFC's. #akleg

* 5-yr: S&P 15.19% v PFC 8.87%
* 3-yr: S&P 21.77% v PFC 7.95%
* 1-yr: S&P 18.37% v PFC 8.64%

Alaskans for Sustainable Budgets @ak4sb.bsky.social · 1d

The 8:30a Chart| To provide context to current $$oil, we publish daily (ex-Su) a running avg of FY26-32 $$ANS, Brent & WTI actual+futures. Projected ANS v. SPRING25 F'cast:

> FY26 ⬆️ $2 (+$145mil UGF)
> FY27 ⬇️ $2 (-$72mil)
> FY28-32 ⬆️ $1 (avg annual +$36mil)
#akleg

Alaskans for Sustainable Budgets @ak4sb.bsky.social · 2d

This Wk's Top 3| Those pushing spending should say how they are willing to pay for it, the very definition of #akleg irony & finally, something we agree on with Jon Faulkner. T'row, 6:05a on the Michael Dukes Show at buff.ly/LY6gE87

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Alaskans for Sustainable Budgets @ak4sb.bsky.social · 2d

The very definition of irony. Rep. Josephson, one of the biggest #akleg advocates of law-ignoring PFD cuts, talking about a "nation of laws." (Dis)respect for law starts at home ...

Letter: A nation of laws with checks and balances

Ghislaine Maxwell was convicted of sex trafficking and other charges, and sentenced to 20 years in prison. A few weeks ago, the president said multiple times that he would “take a look” at pardoning…

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Alaskans for Sustainable Budgets @ak4sb.bsky.social · 2d

ICYMI. This Week's Friday Column| This week, we focus on three issues: the size of Alaska's potential tax base, the need for oil tax reforms, and the impact on Alaska families of replacing PFD cuts with much less regressive taxes. #akleg buff.ly/jxYmjR6

The Friday column: Three things

The size of Alaska's potential tax base, the need for oil tax reforms, and the impact on Alaska families of replacing PFD cuts with much less regressive taxes

bgkeithley.substack.com

Alaskans for Sustainable Budgets @ak4sb.bsky.social · 2d

The 8:35a Chart| Given the importance of Permanent Fund returns to #AKrev levels, we have developed a second morning chart focusing on S&P 500 5-, 3- & 1-yr returns v the PFC's. #akleg

* 5-yr: S&P 14.41% v PFC 8.87%
* 3-yr: S&P 21.39% v PFC 7.95%
* 1-yr: S&P 16.90% v PFC 8.64%

Alaskans for Sustainable Budgets @ak4sb.bsky.social · 2d

The 8:30a Chart| To provide context to current $$oil, we publish daily (ex-Su) a running avg of FY26-32 $$ANS, Brent & WTI actual+futures. Projected ANS v. SPRING25 F'cast:

> FY26 ⬆️ $3 (+$163mil UGF)
> FY27 ⬇️ $2 (-$72mil)
> FY28-32 ⬆️ $1 (avg annual +$36mil)
#akleg

Alaskans for Sustainable Budgets @ak4sb.bsky.social · 3d

Even though it's not projected to be available until 2031, we have also started including Wood Mackenzie's recent projection of the delivered cost of #AKLNG Phase I. At 2031 start-up date, projected AKLNG Phase I price is 53% ⬆️ Asia.

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Alaskans for Sustainable Budgets @ak4sb.bsky.social · 3d

The Monday Chart| To put Alaska's in-state gas prices in global context, once wkly we compare Enstar's current Gas Cost Adjustment v. global markers. 2025-26 Enstar price is 10% ⬇️ Asia, 178% ⬆️ L48. 5yr forward avg, Enstar 15% ⬆️ Asia, 180% ⬆️ L48. #akleg

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Alaskans for Sustainable Budgets @ak4sb.bsky.social · 3d

ICYMI. This Wk's Top 3 P'cast| Will Typhoon Halong be the final straw that breaks the PFD, it's not just the Ds that are pushing spending without explaining who pays for it, and maybe MustRead's Jon Faulkner should just start over. #akleg

The Weekly Top 3 (10.20.2025)

Will Typhoon Halong be the final straw that breaks the PFD, it's not just the Ds that are pushing spending without explaining who pays for it, and maybe MustRead's Jon Faulkner should just start over

buff.ly

Alaskans for Sustainable Budgets @ak4sb.bsky.social · 3d

The interesting thing about Natasha von Imhof's infamous #akleg "the greed, the entitlement" speech is that, inadvertently, she was talking about herself & others in the Top20%. By using PFD cuts, the benefit of the "free money" ends up in THEIR pockets.

Brad Keithley’s Chart of the Week: The $100,000 Dividend

Last month we wrote a couple of columns on these pages discussing the Tax Avoidance Dividend (or TAD). The TAD is the flip side of the Permanent Fund Dividend (PFD). The PFD is the portion of…

buff.ly

Alaskans for Sustainable Budgets @ak4sb.bsky.social · 3d

ICYMI. This Week's Friday Column| This week, we focus on three issues: the size of Alaska's potential tax base, the need for oil tax reforms, and the impact on Alaska families of replacing PFD cuts with much less regressive taxes. #akleg buff.ly/jxYmjR6

The Friday column: Three things

The size of Alaska's potential tax base, the need for oil tax reforms, and the impact on Alaska families of replacing PFD cuts with much less regressive taxes

bgkeithley.substack.com

Alaskans for Sustainable Budgets @ak4sb.bsky.social · 3d

𝙄𝙣𝙩𝙚𝙧𝙚𝙨𝙩 𝙧𝙖𝙩𝙚𝙨: We track the current Fed funds rate + 10-, 20- & 30-year US Treas Bond yields. buff.ly/AI3K9aD
Effective Fed funds rate: 4.11%
US Treas Bond yields --
**10-Yr: 4.01%**
20-Yr: 4.55%
30-Yr: 4.58%

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Alaskans for Sustainable Budgets @ak4sb.bsky.social · 3d

> Second, the current rate + forward expectations as measured in the Treas market. buff.ly/b894sW5
Current: 3.02% (Aug)
10yr Avg: 2.29%
Next 5yrs: 2.40%
5 yrs Beyond That: 2.18%

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Alaskans for Sustainable Budgets @ak4sb.bsky.social · 3d

> First, accumulated inflation (as measured by the Alaska PCE & Alaska CPI) over the last 10 years. buff.ly/blf6MlC
PCE: up 50.0% (5.0%/yr)
CPI: up 24.6% (2.5%/yr)

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