Joost
@almodozo.bsky.social
Holland > Hungary > Spain
Same @almodozo as on Twitter, just without the Országház. Worked at OSF and CEU, but that's a long while ago. Studied East-European History, but that's even longer ago. Now, somehow, I ended up in Extremadura.
Same @almodozo as on Twitter, just without the Országház. Worked at OSF and CEU, but that's a long while ago. Studied East-European History, but that's even longer ago. Now, somehow, I ended up in Extremadura.
Pinned
Joost
@almodozo.bsky.social
· Sep 21
Not going to update my ancient Twitter bio, but I mostly post about:
— Elections and polls
— Central/East-European politics
— The war in Ukraine
— Maps and charts
— Dutch and Spanish politics
— Budapest memories, life in Extremadura
— The left, a love/hate relationship
— Media, archiving, minorities
— Elections and polls
— Central/East-European politics
— The war in Ukraine
— Maps and charts
— Dutch and Spanish politics
— Budapest memories, life in Extremadura
— The left, a love/hate relationship
— Media, archiving, minorities
Beautiful: mapping the first round results of the 2022 presidential election in Paris and Seine-Saint-Denis. By Twitter user bap_triarii (the election mapping community hasn't really made the move to BSky).
February 12, 2026 at 2:08 PM
Beautiful: mapping the first round results of the 2022 presidential election in Paris and Seine-Saint-Denis. By Twitter user bap_triarii (the election mapping community hasn't really made the move to BSky).
At this point in her Prime Ministership (Feb 2019), Theresa May's net approval rating was -18 to -25. Starmer's is below -60. Those things are not the same.
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leaders...
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leaders...
Leadership approval opinion polling for the 2019 United Kingdom general election - Wikipedia
en.wikipedia.org
February 12, 2026 at 1:53 PM
At this point in her Prime Ministership (Feb 2019), Theresa May's net approval rating was -18 to -25. Starmer's is below -60. Those things are not the same.
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leaders...
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leaders...
That doesn't explain why Starmer is more unpopular than any previous PM at this point
February 12, 2026 at 1:44 PM
That doesn't explain why Starmer is more unpopular than any previous PM at this point
All the Don't Knows make that harder to fathom. Another poll suggests that Davey antagonises people less than other party leaders, but Polanski doesn't
February 12, 2026 at 12:29 PM
All the Don't Knows make that harder to fathom. Another poll suggests that Davey antagonises people less than other party leaders, but Polanski doesn't
But Labour is the only case where the party is significantly more popular than its leader
February 12, 2026 at 12:22 PM
But Labour is the only case where the party is significantly more popular than its leader
Accurate local polling is expensive and won't be available in most constituencies. People will have to go on statistical models like MRPs, and they tend to vary a lot (electiondatavault.co.uk/charts/model...). If left/liberal parties stay as close in polling as they're now this will get very fraught
Model Comparisons – UK Election Data Vault
electiondatavault.co.uk
February 12, 2026 at 12:20 PM
Accurate local polling is expensive and won't be available in most constituencies. People will have to go on statistical models like MRPs, and they tend to vary a lot (electiondatavault.co.uk/charts/model...). If left/liberal parties stay as close in polling as they're now this will get very fraught
"Gallup’s approval ratings went far beyond what many other pollsters can provide. Its 88 years of data give historical context [and its polls are] conducted over the phone using live interviewers, an increasingly rare but robust methodology"
www.nytimes.com/2026/02/11/u...
www.nytimes.com/2026/02/11/u...
Gallup Will No Longer Track Presidential Approval Ratings
www.nytimes.com
February 12, 2026 at 11:49 AM
"Gallup’s approval ratings went far beyond what many other pollsters can provide. Its 88 years of data give historical context [and its polls are] conducted over the phone using live interviewers, an increasingly rare but robust methodology"
www.nytimes.com/2026/02/11/u...
www.nytimes.com/2026/02/11/u...
How many days of front pages would you consider proportional?
February 11, 2026 at 2:45 PM
How many days of front pages would you consider proportional?
(Also, I appreciate your overview, but other papers as well as broadcast news media are available... and I'm a little wary of checking how they compare)
February 11, 2026 at 2:41 PM
(Also, I appreciate your overview, but other papers as well as broadcast news media are available... and I'm a little wary of checking how they compare)
But this was the front page today
February 11, 2026 at 2:36 PM
But this was the front page today
That's not the fault of lobby journalists, who are just doing their job, but of editors and publishers (and to some extent, further downstream, us readers collectively because of what we'll click on or not)
February 11, 2026 at 2:33 PM
That's not the fault of lobby journalists, who are just doing their job, but of editors and publishers (and to some extent, further downstream, us readers collectively because of what we'll click on or not)
It'd be very easy to write a critical story about the state of schools, healthcare, the lives of those on benefits, etc too, but the papers hardly focus on that either. Problem isn't focusing on bad news instead of good news, but focusing on lobby intrigue rather than real life impacts of policies.
February 11, 2026 at 2:32 PM
It'd be very easy to write a critical story about the state of schools, healthcare, the lives of those on benefits, etc too, but the papers hardly focus on that either. Problem isn't focusing on bad news instead of good news, but focusing on lobby intrigue rather than real life impacts of policies.
This has nothing to do with any conspiracy to go after Starmer, the problem has existed forever. But it has gotten worse, and has served to further trivialise the news, shorten its attention span, and ramp up the drama. Like, this is a fair critique: bsky.app/profile/csav...
Some article suggestions for the media, visit a Better Start Centre, talk to the users and the staff. Visit a few breakfast clubs, talk to the users and the staff. Report on what difference the Employment Rights Act will make, same with the Warm Homes policy, just do your damn job.
February 11, 2026 at 2:28 PM
This has nothing to do with any conspiracy to go after Starmer, the problem has existed forever. But it has gotten worse, and has served to further trivialise the news, shorten its attention span, and ramp up the drama. Like, this is a fair critique: bsky.app/profile/csav...
Ok but how many column inches, how prominently placed, do the lobby journalists get — and how many column inches do the reporters get who write about the changing impact of social policies in communities? The state of the NHS, the lives of those on benefits, unions and labour conditions, etc etc?
February 11, 2026 at 2:23 PM
Ok but how many column inches, how prominently placed, do the lobby journalists get — and how many column inches do the reporters get who write about the changing impact of social policies in communities? The state of the NHS, the lives of those on benefits, unions and labour conditions, etc etc?
In this case I don't see anything suspicious about the reporting at all. "Challenger to the king has to pretend he's not readying a challenge, even as he (or his allies, spurred on by a nudge and a wink) are laying the groundwork for his challenge" is a story as old as politics
February 11, 2026 at 2:15 PM
In this case I don't see anything suspicious about the reporting at all. "Challenger to the king has to pretend he's not readying a challenge, even as he (or his allies, spurred on by a nudge and a wink) are laying the groundwork for his challenge" is a story as old as politics
It's so intense and so evocative!
February 10, 2026 at 9:45 PM
It's so intense and so evocative!
The entire Dutch opposition, from Socialists to extreme right, preemptively shoots down the idea of raising the electoral threshold, and @tomwgvdmeer.bsky.social explains why it would have been a bad idea (Google Translate in screenshots): nos.nl/nieuwsuur/ar...
February 10, 2026 at 9:44 PM
The entire Dutch opposition, from Socialists to extreme right, preemptively shoots down the idea of raising the electoral threshold, and @tomwgvdmeer.bsky.social explains why it would have been a bad idea (Google Translate in screenshots): nos.nl/nieuwsuur/ar...
Ah yeah, no, this is a different genre: "Loved your recipe! Here's what I made, which is literally nothing like your recipe". It's everywhere
February 10, 2026 at 9:15 PM
Ah yeah, no, this is a different genre: "Loved your recipe! Here's what I made, which is literally nothing like your recipe". It's everywhere
"After that, they loved it!" lol
February 10, 2026 at 8:53 PM
"After that, they loved it!" lol
Haha this is a true classic in the "just a few adjustments" genre.
The recipe (image 1) was for goguma-bap: rice with sweet potatoes + a seasoning sauce with green onions, soy sauce, vinegar, and sesame seeds.
The commenter made.. rice with fried chicken, water chestnuts, and sweet and sour sauce.
The recipe (image 1) was for goguma-bap: rice with sweet potatoes + a seasoning sauce with green onions, soy sauce, vinegar, and sesame seeds.
The commenter made.. rice with fried chicken, water chestnuts, and sweet and sour sauce.
February 10, 2026 at 8:49 PM
Haha this is a true classic in the "just a few adjustments" genre.
The recipe (image 1) was for goguma-bap: rice with sweet potatoes + a seasoning sauce with green onions, soy sauce, vinegar, and sesame seeds.
The commenter made.. rice with fried chicken, water chestnuts, and sweet and sour sauce.
The recipe (image 1) was for goguma-bap: rice with sweet potatoes + a seasoning sauce with green onions, soy sauce, vinegar, and sesame seeds.
The commenter made.. rice with fried chicken, water chestnuts, and sweet and sour sauce.
Seems like some kind of quid pro quo: you can come back as long as we never hear a peep from you again. Such a shame, but easy to empathise: exile must have broken him...
February 10, 2026 at 8:40 PM
Seems like some kind of quid pro quo: you can come back as long as we never hear a peep from you again. Such a shame, but easy to empathise: exile must have broken him...
"Where can I find the number of people responding to the poll?"
In the screenshot I posted
"Oh, and why are the polls always worded so I can’t give an accurate response?"
What accurate response is missing between "remain" and "stand down"?
In the screenshot I posted
"Oh, and why are the polls always worded so I can’t give an accurate response?"
What accurate response is missing between "remain" and "stand down"?
February 10, 2026 at 11:08 AM
"Where can I find the number of people responding to the poll?"
In the screenshot I posted
"Oh, and why are the polls always worded so I can’t give an accurate response?"
What accurate response is missing between "remain" and "stand down"?
In the screenshot I posted
"Oh, and why are the polls always worded so I can’t give an accurate response?"
What accurate response is missing between "remain" and "stand down"?
In a YouGov poll five days ago, Labour voters were evenly divided between wanting him to stay (40%) or resign (37%). Back in November that was still 46% vs 36%. Lot of Don't Knows too.
yougov.co.uk/topics/polit...
yougov.co.uk/topics/polit...
February 10, 2026 at 12:52 AM
In a YouGov poll five days ago, Labour voters were evenly divided between wanting him to stay (40%) or resign (37%). Back in November that was still 46% vs 36%. Lot of Don't Knows too.
yougov.co.uk/topics/polit...
yougov.co.uk/topics/polit...
NL: Carrying water to the sea
February 10, 2026 at 12:39 AM
NL: Carrying water to the sea