Joost
@almodozo.bsky.social
Holland > Hungary > Spain
Same @almodozo as on Twitter, just without the Országház. Worked at OSF and CEU, but that's a long while ago. Studied East-European History, but that's even longer ago. Now, somehow, I ended up in Extremadura.
Same @almodozo as on Twitter, just without the Országház. Worked at OSF and CEU, but that's a long while ago. Studied East-European History, but that's even longer ago. Now, somehow, I ended up in Extremadura.
Pinned
Joost
@almodozo.bsky.social
· Sep 21
Not going to update my ancient Twitter bio, but I mostly post about:
— Elections and polls
— Central/East-European politics
— The war in Ukraine
— Maps and charts
— Dutch and Spanish politics
— Budapest memories, life in Extremadura
— The left, a love/hate relationship
— Media, archiving, minorities
— Elections and polls
— Central/East-European politics
— The war in Ukraine
— Maps and charts
— Dutch and Spanish politics
— Budapest memories, life in Extremadura
— The left, a love/hate relationship
— Media, archiving, minorities
One day this episode in the apparent attempts of Orbán's machine to take Péter Magyar out will become viral 'remember when' fodder for some "insane moments in European politics" account
💥Dramatic turn in Hungary’s election race: Orbán rival Péter Magyar says that in 2024 his ex-girlfriend set a honey trap to secretly record them having sex—footage he claims Orbán’s camp plans to publish to ruin and blackmail him.
Magyar currently holds a big lead in the polls. Election in 59 days.
Magyar currently holds a big lead in the polls. Election in 59 days.
February 13, 2026 at 3:00 AM
One day this episode in the apparent attempts of Orbán's machine to take Péter Magyar out will become viral 'remember when' fodder for some "insane moments in European politics" account
"This week alone, the government says Portugal has experienced 20% of its annual average rainfall"
www.bbc.com/news/article...
www.bbc.com/news/article...
Motorway collapses as deadly storms hit France, Portugal and Spain
Storm Nils batters several European countries, leaving one person dead and several others injured.
www.bbc.com
February 12, 2026 at 11:20 PM
"This week alone, the government says Portugal has experienced 20% of its annual average rainfall"
www.bbc.com/news/article...
www.bbc.com/news/article...
Beautiful: mapping the first round results of the 2022 presidential election in Paris and Seine-Saint-Denis. By Twitter user bap_triarii (the election mapping community hasn't really made the move to BSky).
February 12, 2026 at 2:08 PM
Beautiful: mapping the first round results of the 2022 presidential election in Paris and Seine-Saint-Denis. By Twitter user bap_triarii (the election mapping community hasn't really made the move to BSky).
"Gallup’s approval ratings went far beyond what many other pollsters can provide. Its 88 years of data give historical context [and its polls are] conducted over the phone using live interviewers, an increasingly rare but robust methodology"
www.nytimes.com/2026/02/11/u...
www.nytimes.com/2026/02/11/u...
Gallup Will No Longer Track Presidential Approval Ratings
www.nytimes.com
February 12, 2026 at 11:49 AM
"Gallup’s approval ratings went far beyond what many other pollsters can provide. Its 88 years of data give historical context [and its polls are] conducted over the phone using live interviewers, an increasingly rare but robust methodology"
www.nytimes.com/2026/02/11/u...
www.nytimes.com/2026/02/11/u...
The entire Dutch opposition, from Socialists to extreme right, preemptively shoots down the idea of raising the electoral threshold, and @tomwgvdmeer.bsky.social explains why it would have been a bad idea (Google Translate in screenshots): nos.nl/nieuwsuur/ar...
February 10, 2026 at 9:44 PM
The entire Dutch opposition, from Socialists to extreme right, preemptively shoots down the idea of raising the electoral threshold, and @tomwgvdmeer.bsky.social explains why it would have been a bad idea (Google Translate in screenshots): nos.nl/nieuwsuur/ar...
Haha this is a true classic in the "just a few adjustments" genre.
The recipe (image 1) was for goguma-bap: rice with sweet potatoes + a seasoning sauce with green onions, soy sauce, vinegar, and sesame seeds.
The commenter made.. rice with fried chicken, water chestnuts, and sweet and sour sauce.
The recipe (image 1) was for goguma-bap: rice with sweet potatoes + a seasoning sauce with green onions, soy sauce, vinegar, and sesame seeds.
The commenter made.. rice with fried chicken, water chestnuts, and sweet and sour sauce.
February 10, 2026 at 8:49 PM
Haha this is a true classic in the "just a few adjustments" genre.
The recipe (image 1) was for goguma-bap: rice with sweet potatoes + a seasoning sauce with green onions, soy sauce, vinegar, and sesame seeds.
The commenter made.. rice with fried chicken, water chestnuts, and sweet and sour sauce.
The recipe (image 1) was for goguma-bap: rice with sweet potatoes + a seasoning sauce with green onions, soy sauce, vinegar, and sesame seeds.
The commenter made.. rice with fried chicken, water chestnuts, and sweet and sour sauce.
If we're doing badass music from that part of the world: Yat-Kha's Yenisei Punk (Tuva, 1995)
Post a banger that's not in English
youtu.be/qClXtvkxsVA?...
Post a banger that's not in English
youtu.be/qClXtvkxsVA?...
February 10, 2026 at 12:21 AM
If we're doing badass music from that part of the world: Yat-Kha's Yenisei Punk (Tuva, 1995)
Post a banger that's not in English
youtu.be/qClXtvkxsVA?...
Post a banger that's not in English
youtu.be/qClXtvkxsVA?...
Post a banger, not in English?
Found this song a few weeks ago: a topical parable about a cruel king and a mountain shepherd who can't live but in freedom. The singer? Timur Mutsurayev, a karate champion turned Chechen guerilla fighter with a voice like gale-force wind.
youtu.be/Mh5bTVNMJyY?...
Found this song a few weeks ago: a topical parable about a cruel king and a mountain shepherd who can't live but in freedom. The singer? Timur Mutsurayev, a karate champion turned Chechen guerilla fighter with a voice like gale-force wind.
youtu.be/Mh5bTVNMJyY?...
February 9, 2026 at 10:50 PM
Post a banger, not in English?
Found this song a few weeks ago: a topical parable about a cruel king and a mountain shepherd who can't live but in freedom. The singer? Timur Mutsurayev, a karate champion turned Chechen guerilla fighter with a voice like gale-force wind.
youtu.be/Mh5bTVNMJyY?...
Found this song a few weeks ago: a topical parable about a cruel king and a mountain shepherd who can't live but in freedom. The singer? Timur Mutsurayev, a karate champion turned Chechen guerilla fighter with a voice like gale-force wind.
youtu.be/Mh5bTVNMJyY?...
TISZA's challengers to Orban's rule vow to fight corruption, adopt the euro, and anchor Hungary firmly in EU and NATO. But the party's new programme also presents plans to introduce a wealth tax, and cut income tax for lower earners.
www.reuters.com/business/hun...
www.reuters.com/business/hun...
Hungary's opposition Tisza promises wealth tax, euro adoption in election programme
Hungary's opposition Tisza party plans to introduce a wealth tax for the rich, adopt the euro currency and firmly anchor Hungary in the European Union and NATO, its 240-page election programme publish...
www.reuters.com
February 9, 2026 at 3:17 PM
TISZA's challengers to Orban's rule vow to fight corruption, adopt the euro, and anchor Hungary firmly in EU and NATO. But the party's new programme also presents plans to introduce a wealth tax, and cut income tax for lower earners.
www.reuters.com/business/hun...
www.reuters.com/business/hun...
Aragon's election saw the second highest result for the right as a whole there since these elections started in 1983; and that's if you count the Partido Aragonés. If you don't, it's easily the highest yet: the right radicalises.
elpais.com/espana/elecc...
elpais.com/espana/elecc...
February 9, 2026 at 2:53 PM
Aragon's election saw the second highest result for the right as a whole there since these elections started in 1983; and that's if you count the Partido Aragonés. If you don't, it's easily the highest yet: the right radicalises.
elpais.com/espana/elecc...
elpais.com/espana/elecc...
Aragon, vote by age, pre-election polling: far-right strength among young voters
www.eldiario.es/aragon/polit...
www.eldiario.es/aragon/polit...
February 9, 2026 at 12:48 PM
Aragon, vote by age, pre-election polling: far-right strength among young voters
www.eldiario.es/aragon/polit...
www.eldiario.es/aragon/polit...
Bummer, paywall
"Ventura gained significantly more votes from Cotrim than from Mendes"
expresso.pt/politica/ele...
"Ventura gained significantly more votes from Cotrim than from Mendes"
expresso.pt/politica/ele...
Fascinating was the breakdown by 2025 party vote. The centre-right AD electorate scattered, with just 31% opting for its "own" candidate, Mendes. Significant chunks instead went for Cotrim, independent candidate Gouveia e Melo, or even (tactically?) Seguro - but *not* Ventura.
x.com/PCMagalhaes/...
x.com/PCMagalhaes/...
February 9, 2026 at 12:33 AM
Bummer, paywall
"Ventura gained significantly more votes from Cotrim than from Mendes"
expresso.pt/politica/ele...
"Ventura gained significantly more votes from Cotrim than from Mendes"
expresso.pt/politica/ele...
Gotta love the tiny municipalities of rural Spain. Like Fuentes de Rubielos, whose few dozen voters are very left wing, though turnout collapsed. Izquierda Unida got 3% in Aragon in this election, but in this village it got 25% — i.e. 10 votes:
February 8, 2026 at 11:36 PM
Gotta love the tiny municipalities of rural Spain. Like Fuentes de Rubielos, whose few dozen voters are very left wing, though turnout collapsed. Izquierda Unida got 3% in Aragon in this election, but in this village it got 25% — i.e. 10 votes:
I'm glad with the result in Portugal, don't get me wrong: in these times, we should appreciate every win.
But there's a pessimistic side to me that's strongly tempted to edit a "YOU ARE HERE" sign into the France 2017 screenshot here:
But there's a pessimistic side to me that's strongly tempted to edit a "YOU ARE HERE" sign into the France 2017 screenshot here:
February 8, 2026 at 11:11 PM
I'm glad with the result in Portugal, don't get me wrong: in these times, we should appreciate every win.
But there's a pessimistic side to me that's strongly tempted to edit a "YOU ARE HERE" sign into the France 2017 screenshot here:
But there's a pessimistic side to me that's strongly tempted to edit a "YOU ARE HERE" sign into the France 2017 screenshot here:
Podemos below 1% in Aragon, and it was not for lack of trying this time.
You think they'll learn a lesson here?
You think they'll learn a lesson here?
February 8, 2026 at 10:11 PM
Podemos below 1% in Aragon, and it was not for lack of trying this time.
You think they'll learn a lesson here?
You think they'll learn a lesson here?
Oh, Elvas... 💔 So dear to my heart, but literally the only place in mainland Portugal to give Ventura the win 😟
February 8, 2026 at 9:27 PM
Oh, Elvas... 💔 So dear to my heart, but literally the only place in mainland Portugal to give Ventura the win 😟
This is a cool tool by @joaoc.bsky.social: simulate the outcome of tomorrow's presidential run-off in Portugal by playing around with the levers for what % of each R1 candidate (and non-voters) will vote for whom now. (My guess: the polls are too optimistic.)
joaocancela.github.io/presidenciais/
joaocancela.github.io/presidenciais/
Simulador de resultados na 2.ª volta da eleição presidencial de 2026 (Seguro vs Ventura)
joaocancela.github.io
February 7, 2026 at 4:01 PM
This is a cool tool by @joaoc.bsky.social: simulate the outcome of tomorrow's presidential run-off in Portugal by playing around with the levers for what % of each R1 candidate (and non-voters) will vote for whom now. (My guess: the polls are too optimistic.)
joaocancela.github.io/presidenciais/
joaocancela.github.io/presidenciais/
How democratic backsliding in Trump's America is proceeding at a more rapid pace than it did in the first years of Orban's, Putin's and Erdogan's rule (and what that means for analyses which treated illiberalism "as an exotic pathology of the Eastern periphery"):
The US under Trump's second term is experiencing the steepest democratic backsliding in contemporary history, outpacing Russia, Turkey, and Hungary. But there's hope, too. Burn-Murdoch is probably the best data journalist today. His latest @financialtimes.com analysis is essential reading. 1/7
February 7, 2026 at 3:50 PM
How democratic backsliding in Trump's America is proceeding at a more rapid pace than it did in the first years of Orban's, Putin's and Erdogan's rule (and what that means for analyses which treated illiberalism "as an exotic pathology of the Eastern periphery"):
Re: Trump's popularity and its decline, Twitter/X is one of the least representative media demographics around. Time for journalists to stop treating it as the vox populi.
On the flipside, the picture is more nuanced than BlueSky likes to think: almost half of X users disapprove of Trump.
On the flipside, the picture is more nuanced than BlueSky likes to think: almost half of X users disapprove of Trump.
February 7, 2026 at 3:42 PM
Re: Trump's popularity and its decline, Twitter/X is one of the least representative media demographics around. Time for journalists to stop treating it as the vox populi.
On the flipside, the picture is more nuanced than BlueSky likes to think: almost half of X users disapprove of Trump.
On the flipside, the picture is more nuanced than BlueSky likes to think: almost half of X users disapprove of Trump.
When far right parties go out of their way to erase any distinction between "radical right" and "extreme right". In the upcoming local elections, the Dutch Forum for Democracy is running Frank Folkerts, a former member of the neo-nazi party NVU, as a candidate in Nieuwegein
Precies wat mijn boodschap is bij rtv utrecht! www.rtvutrecht.nl/nieuws/40012...
Nieuwegeinse FvD-kandidaat stond eerder op lijst van neonazistische NVU
Forum voor Democratie (FvD) bereidt zich voor op de gemeenteraadsverkiezingen, ook in Nieuwegein. Een opvallende keuze is de nummer twee op die lijst: Frank Folkerts. Eerder stelde hij zich verkiesbaa...
www.rtvutrecht.nl
February 7, 2026 at 3:24 PM
When far right parties go out of their way to erase any distinction between "radical right" and "extreme right". In the upcoming local elections, the Dutch Forum for Democracy is running Frank Folkerts, a former member of the neo-nazi party NVU, as a candidate in Nieuwegein
Werckmeister harmóniák was one of the few films that ever made me cry, and I couldn't even articulate why.
Attending Hungarian filmmaker Béla Tarr's funeral in Budapest, was like finding yourself *right in the middle* of a Béla Tarr film.
The silence was deafening; the humanity real, and palpable.
🤍🕯️🕊️
📷 Budapest Fiumei Cemetery
The silence was deafening; the humanity real, and palpable.
🤍🕯️🕊️
📷 Budapest Fiumei Cemetery
February 6, 2026 at 11:25 PM
Werckmeister harmóniák was one of the few films that ever made me cry, and I couldn't even articulate why.
Set up a website with a serious name; have ChatGTP generate a bunch of news 'articles'; then insert a longer piece accusing Hungary's opposition leader of a lurid smuggling operation with Zelensky. That's how easy it is now to launch a "Russian-style disinformation campaign" to boost Orbán's odds
Disinformation campaigns targeting Hungarian opposition could be prelude to more intense Russian activity, expert says
An obviously fake website is attempting to discredit opposition politician Péter Magyar by using an alleged Ukraine-related story. Intelligence expert Péter Buda points to evidence suggesting that the...
telex.hu
February 5, 2026 at 9:55 PM
Set up a website with a serious name; have ChatGTP generate a bunch of news 'articles'; then insert a longer piece accusing Hungary's opposition leader of a lurid smuggling operation with Zelensky. That's how easy it is now to launch a "Russian-style disinformation campaign" to boost Orbán's odds
"Today’s websites become tomorrow’s historical records," but newspapers of record like the NYT, the FT and the Guardian have ended the Internet Archive’s access to their content, dealing yet another blow to the open and transparent internet. They blame AI:
theconversation.com/news-sites-a...
theconversation.com/news-sites-a...
News sites are locking out the Internet Archive to stop AI crawling. Is the ‘open web’ closing?
News outlets want readers – and big tech – to pay for their content. But blocking the Internet Archive will leave major holes in the public record of the web.
theconversation.com
February 5, 2026 at 9:45 PM
"Today’s websites become tomorrow’s historical records," but newspapers of record like the NYT, the FT and the Guardian have ended the Internet Archive’s access to their content, dealing yet another blow to the open and transparent internet. They blame AI:
theconversation.com/news-sites-a...
theconversation.com/news-sites-a...
It's one thing for Elon Musk to post whatever deluded trash propaganda he wants on his own account, but Telegram owner Pavel Durov sent *every single user of his app in Spain* an uninvited message yesterday to rail against Sanchez creating “a surveillance state”
www.theguardian.com/world/2026/f...
www.theguardian.com/world/2026/f...
Spain hits back at Pavel Durov over mass Telegram post on social media ban plan
Founder’s extraordinary intervention has laid bare rising tensions between European governments and tech firms
www.theguardian.com
February 5, 2026 at 9:20 PM
It's one thing for Elon Musk to post whatever deluded trash propaganda he wants on his own account, but Telegram owner Pavel Durov sent *every single user of his app in Spain* an uninvited message yesterday to rail against Sanchez creating “a surveillance state”
www.theguardian.com/world/2026/f...
www.theguardian.com/world/2026/f...