Daniel Schuman
@americalabs.org
Progressive institutionalist with an interest in modernizing Congress and strengthening our democracy. Bluesky is my penance for working at an org that once encouraged Congress to tweet.
Like what you see? More at https://firstbranchforecast.substack.com/
Like what you see? More at https://firstbranchforecast.substack.com/
Not to worry! Glad you liked it -- and thank you for sharing it with others.
January 5, 2026 at 2:18 PM
Not to worry! Glad you liked it -- and thank you for sharing it with others.
I'm glad you like the article. Incidentally, my last name is spelled without the l. :)
January 5, 2026 at 2:07 PM
I'm glad you like the article. Incidentally, my last name is spelled without the l. :)
Tomorrow the Trump insurrectionists will re-enact their January 6th march to sack the Capitol and topple democracy, starting at the Ellipse and working their way down Pennsylvania Avenue.
They will celebrate their victory. Our political leaders have learned nothing. Here's what they should know.
They will celebrate their victory. Our political leaders have learned nothing. Here's what they should know.
Insurrection Without End
The Institutional Costs of Presidential Impunity
firstbranchforecast.substack.com
January 5, 2026 at 2:06 PM
Tomorrow the Trump insurrectionists will re-enact their January 6th march to sack the Capitol and topple democracy, starting at the Ellipse and working their way down Pennsylvania Avenue.
They will celebrate their victory. Our political leaders have learned nothing. Here's what they should know.
They will celebrate their victory. Our political leaders have learned nothing. Here's what they should know.
2025 wasn’t just another year of partisan fights—it exposed deeper structural failures in how Congress governs, spends, and defends its own power. We told that story each week in the First Branch Forecast.
Here's what we learned.
firstbranchforecast.substack.com/p/four-lesso...
Here's what we learned.
firstbranchforecast.substack.com/p/four-lesso...
Four Lessons from a Fracturing Congress
2025 in Review
firstbranchforecast.substack.com
December 29, 2025 at 2:40 PM
2025 wasn’t just another year of partisan fights—it exposed deeper structural failures in how Congress governs, spends, and defends its own power. We told that story each week in the First Branch Forecast.
Here's what we learned.
firstbranchforecast.substack.com/p/four-lesso...
Here's what we learned.
firstbranchforecast.substack.com/p/four-lesso...
Trump's DOJ rolls back provision of reproductive health services to veterans through potemkin legal opinion.
www.justice.gov/olc/media/14...
www.justice.gov/olc/media/14...
www.justice.gov
December 22, 2025 at 5:40 PM
Trump's DOJ rolls back provision of reproductive health services to veterans through potemkin legal opinion.
www.justice.gov/olc/media/14...
www.justice.gov/olc/media/14...
As leadership loses control of the narrative and majority members become increasingly afraid of a wipe-out at the polls due to negative ratings and redistricting, the incentives of the rank-and-file will be to assert their independence.
firstbranchforecast.substack.com/p/a-fracturi...
firstbranchforecast.substack.com/p/a-fracturi...
A Fracturing Majority, a More Fluid House
Discharge petitions, factional alliances, and stormy political waters are prompting some members to consider a different course
firstbranchforecast.substack.com
December 22, 2025 at 1:29 PM
As leadership loses control of the narrative and majority members become increasingly afraid of a wipe-out at the polls due to negative ratings and redistricting, the incentives of the rank-and-file will be to assert their independence.
firstbranchforecast.substack.com/p/a-fracturi...
firstbranchforecast.substack.com/p/a-fracturi...
In the background are efforts to help constituents better communicate with members, and for members to better use that information > including to press for committee action.
Also efforts to give members better access to necessary legislative information, drawing from international examples
Also efforts to give members better access to necessary legislative information, drawing from international examples
December 22, 2025 at 1:29 PM
In the background are efforts to help constituents better communicate with members, and for members to better use that information > including to press for committee action.
Also efforts to give members better access to necessary legislative information, drawing from international examples
Also efforts to give members better access to necessary legislative information, drawing from international examples
Two key points of leverage are must-pass votes (like appropriations) and legislative information.
With approps expiring on January 30th, and a just-announced deal on subcommittee funding levels, members will have 9 bills on which to assert their preferences.
With approps expiring on January 30th, and a just-announced deal on subcommittee funding levels, members will have 9 bills on which to assert their preferences.
December 22, 2025 at 1:29 PM
Two key points of leverage are must-pass votes (like appropriations) and legislative information.
With approps expiring on January 30th, and a just-announced deal on subcommittee funding levels, members will have 9 bills on which to assert their preferences.
With approps expiring on January 30th, and a just-announced deal on subcommittee funding levels, members will have 9 bills on which to assert their preferences.
House members keep surrendering power—until they don’t. Last week’s discharge petition showed members still have tools to assert control.
The path to 218 doesn’t have to run through party leadership. It can run through factions assembling majorities when leadership blocks action.
The path to 218 doesn’t have to run through party leadership. It can run through factions assembling majorities when leadership blocks action.
December 22, 2025 at 1:29 PM
House members keep surrendering power—until they don’t. Last week’s discharge petition showed members still have tools to assert control.
The path to 218 doesn’t have to run through party leadership. It can run through factions assembling majorities when leadership blocks action.
The path to 218 doesn’t have to run through party leadership. It can run through factions assembling majorities when leadership blocks action.
We covered her experiences transitioning the House of Representatives to remove work during the pandemic. How she developed AI policies for legislative use. The challenges of building new tools amid tight budgets. How the CAO fits within the legislative branch, and what the next CAO should know.
Interview: Catherine Szpindor
The retiring House CAO has been instrumental to modernizing the institution during her service to the legislative branch.
firstbranchforecast.substack.com
December 18, 2025 at 3:53 PM
We covered her experiences transitioning the House of Representatives to remove work during the pandemic. How she developed AI policies for legislative use. The challenges of building new tools amid tight budgets. How the CAO fits within the legislative branch, and what the next CAO should know.
What's is like serving as the Chief Administrative Officer of the House of Representatives, responsible for its non-legislative technology and operations? Chris Nehls and I interviewed CAO Catherine Szpindor, who will be stepping down from her role after 14 years of service to the Congress.
December 18, 2025 at 3:53 PM
What's is like serving as the Chief Administrative Officer of the House of Representatives, responsible for its non-legislative technology and operations? Chris Nehls and I interviewed CAO Catherine Szpindor, who will be stepping down from her role after 14 years of service to the Congress.
These efforts are incremental and often overlooked—but some are cutting edge & together they form the infrastructure that will shape how AI interfaces with Congress and the public. Chris Nehls and I dig into what’s happening, and why it matters, in this week’s First Branch Forecast:
How Congress Is Wiring Its Data for the AI Era
From GPO’s MCP server to data standards, constituent engagement, and institutional independence, Congress is quietly building the infrastructure for the AI era.
firstbranchforecast.substack.com
December 15, 2025 at 1:55 PM
These efforts are incremental and often overlooked—but some are cutting edge & together they form the infrastructure that will shape how AI interfaces with Congress and the public. Chris Nehls and I dig into what’s happening, and why it matters, in this week’s First Branch Forecast:
None of this is new. Congress has been working on technology and data modernization for more than a decade—from the Congressional Data Task Force, House AI policies, and ongoing work by appropriators, leadership, and modernization advocates, informed by global best practices & domestic civic tech.
December 15, 2025 at 1:55 PM
None of this is new. Congress has been working on technology and data modernization for more than a decade—from the Congressional Data Task Force, House AI policies, and ongoing work by appropriators, leadership, and modernization advocates, informed by global best practices & domestic civic tech.
That announcement fits a broader pattern. Across the legislative branch, efforts are underway to improve data standards, expand public access to congressional information, map legislative-branch datasets, modernize constituent engagement tools, and clarify institutional boundaries around AI use.
December 15, 2025 at 1:55 PM
That announcement fits a broader pattern. Across the legislative branch, efforts are underway to improve data standards, expand public access to congressional information, map legislative-branch datasets, modernize constituent engagement tools, and clarify institutional boundaries around AI use.
At last week’s Congressional Data Task Force meeting, the Government Publishing Office previewed a Model Context Protocol (MCP) server that allows AI tools to directly access official congressional publications. The goal: machine-to-machine access to authoritative, up-to-date public records.
December 15, 2025 at 1:55 PM
At last week’s Congressional Data Task Force meeting, the Government Publishing Office previewed a Model Context Protocol (MCP) server that allows AI tools to directly access official congressional publications. The goal: machine-to-machine access to authoritative, up-to-date public records.
Congress is quietly shaping how AI will interact with democratic institutions—and doing so largely on its own terms. Much of this work isn't “AI policy,” but it may matter more than many headline-grabbing initiatives. The focus on reliable data and transparency about government to empower all of us.
December 15, 2025 at 1:55 PM
Congress is quietly shaping how AI will interact with democratic institutions—and doing so largely on its own terms. Much of this work isn't “AI policy,” but it may matter more than many headline-grabbing initiatives. The focus on reliable data and transparency about government to empower all of us.
Members will be paid either way. It's a question of whether they will be paid on time or delayed. There are costs of administering, which is not insignificant. And then there's the policy consequences.
December 11, 2025 at 6:16 PM
Members will be paid either way. It's a question of whether they will be paid on time or delayed. There are costs of administering, which is not insignificant. And then there's the policy consequences.
It wouldn't stop the threat of a (partial) government shutdown at all. A key problem is the appropriations process, but even more centrally, the incentives of the players in our political system. To the extent you do anything, you shift power to the president and the House.
December 11, 2025 at 1:46 PM
It wouldn't stop the threat of a (partial) government shutdown at all. A key problem is the appropriations process, but even more centrally, the incentives of the players in our political system. To the extent you do anything, you shift power to the president and the House.
On 2.... I can see pay being disbursed on a per diem basis. I can see it being disbursed on demand. But having it withheld (but not stopped) on an external factor (the passage of legislation) as a de facto pay freeze seems a lot like paying members to take a particular action.
December 11, 2025 at 1:29 PM
On 2.... I can see pay being disbursed on a per diem basis. I can see it being disbursed on demand. But having it withheld (but not stopped) on an external factor (the passage of legislation) as a de facto pay freeze seems a lot like paying members to take a particular action.
There's a couple of implementation problems.
1 It's actually really hard to withhold pay for a period of time. The Senate financial system is old and creaky and it would cost a lot of money to fix.
2 It's unclear to me whether a resolution can condition the receipt of pay on a legislative action
1 It's actually really hard to withhold pay for a period of time. The Senate financial system is old and creaky and it would cost a lot of money to fix.
2 It's unclear to me whether a resolution can condition the receipt of pay on a legislative action
December 11, 2025 at 1:27 PM
There's a couple of implementation problems.
1 It's actually really hard to withhold pay for a period of time. The Senate financial system is old and creaky and it would cost a lot of money to fix.
2 It's unclear to me whether a resolution can condition the receipt of pay on a legislative action
1 It's actually really hard to withhold pay for a period of time. The Senate financial system is old and creaky and it would cost a lot of money to fix.
2 It's unclear to me whether a resolution can condition the receipt of pay on a legislative action
There were lots of reasons advanced why a handful of centrist senators caved. The most plausible one is they had already achieved everything they thought they could get through this tactic. (They were wrong, but that's the best interpretation.)
December 11, 2025 at 1:19 PM
There were lots of reasons advanced why a handful of centrist senators caved. The most plausible one is they had already achieved everything they thought they could get through this tactic. (They were wrong, but that's the best interpretation.)
Energy spent on punishing congress would be better directed to strengthening Congress's capacity to govern.
Look, I know people are really, really angry at Congress. But they should focus their anger on the source.
Would withholding an employees pay make them more or less likely to do a good job?
Look, I know people are really, really angry at Congress. But they should focus their anger on the source.
Would withholding an employees pay make them more or less likely to do a good job?
December 11, 2025 at 1:17 PM
Energy spent on punishing congress would be better directed to strengthening Congress's capacity to govern.
Look, I know people are really, really angry at Congress. But they should focus their anger on the source.
Would withholding an employees pay make them more or less likely to do a good job?
Look, I know people are really, really angry at Congress. But they should focus their anger on the source.
Would withholding an employees pay make them more or less likely to do a good job?
This is really a head-fake. Federal employees shouldn't have their pay withheld during a shutdown. If Sen. Kennedy cared about that, then he should tell Russ Vought to change the OMB memo on that topic -- or change the law. He's an appropriator after all.
December 11, 2025 at 1:17 PM
This is really a head-fake. Federal employees shouldn't have their pay withheld during a shutdown. If Sen. Kennedy cared about that, then he should tell Russ Vought to change the OMB memo on that topic -- or change the law. He's an appropriator after all.
Remember how Speaker Johnson kept the House out of business for more than 43 days by personal fiat? Well, should it happen again, it would encourage less wealthy senators to cave.
It also makes the senate even more of an oligarchy. Only the rich will be able to afford to serve.
It also makes the senate even more of an oligarchy. Only the rich will be able to afford to serve.
December 11, 2025 at 1:14 PM
Remember how Speaker Johnson kept the House out of business for more than 43 days by personal fiat? Well, should it happen again, it would encourage less wealthy senators to cave.
It also makes the senate even more of an oligarchy. Only the rich will be able to afford to serve.
It also makes the senate even more of an oligarchy. Only the rich will be able to afford to serve.