Author | Lightnews

Aaron Percival

@ampercival.bsky.social

75 followers 98 following 300 posts

aaronpercival.substack.com Director / @SSC_SPC / Public Sector Transformation Leader – Driving Change for Real Impact | Obsessed with Value, Cares Deeply, Gets Things Done #PublicSector #DigitalGovernment #ServiceDelivery #Transformation #GCDigital

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Aaron Percival @ampercival.bsky.social · 10d

5/

Speed without preparation is recklessness.
Preparation without speed is stagnation.

Aaron Percival @ampercival.bsky.social · 10d

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Defining “done” clearly, using data from past projects, mapping risks—these steps might feel slow, but they create the conditions for real speed later.

Aaron Percival @ampercival.bsky.social · 10d

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Oxford’s Bent Flyvbjerg and Nobel laureate Daniel Kahneman call for a different rhythm: think slow, act fast.

Plan deliberately. Execute decisively. That’s how big things get done.

Aaron Percival @ampercival.bsky.social · 10d

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In government, the instinct is to move quickly—launch the program, cut the ribbon, show progress.

But research shows that rushing the start often means years of delays later.

Aaron Percival @ampercival.bsky.social · 10d

Successful projects: What if the secret to finishing faster is starting slower? 🧵👇

#BeyondTheStatusQuo #PublicSectorLeadership #Transformation #ProjectDelivery #ThinkSlowActFast

Think Slow, Act Fast: The Science of Delivering Public Projects on Time and on Budget

Happy Tuesday, Transformation Friends.

open.substack.com

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Aaron Percival @ampercival.bsky.social · 16d

5/

Above all, remember why we do this work: to deliver better services for Canadians and steward public funds responsibly.

What resilience habits are helping your team right now?

#Resilience #Leadership #PublicService #MentalHealth

Aaron Percival @ampercival.bsky.social · 16d

4/

A few habits that help:
🔹 Be clear about what we know—and what we don’t.
🔹 Focus on what we can control today.
🔹 Celebrate small wins and lessons learned.

Aaron Percival @ampercival.bsky.social · 16d

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Lately, I’ve been reflecting on how we can build resilience together. Not just to survive tough times, but to adapt and stay connected through them.

Aaron Percival @ampercival.bsky.social · 16d

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Uncertainty is high. Anxiety is high. I feel it too. The unknowns affect all of us, and that makes leadership especially challenging.

Aaron Percival @ampercival.bsky.social · 16d

“Resilience isn’t a single skill. It’s a variety of skills and coping mechanisms.” – Jean Chatzky

🧵👇

Aaron Percival @ampercival.bsky.social · Oct 7

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The takeaway? IT isn’t like other projects. Its risks behave differently—so our plans, forecasts, and interventions must too.

Recognize the tail. Design for volatility. Act early.

#PublicSector #DigitalTransformation #ITRisk #GovTech #ProjectManagement #Leadership

Aaron Percival @ampercival.bsky.social · Oct 7

4/

Add the “outside view.”

Use reference-class forecasting and independent, think-slow reviews to counter optimism bias. IT risk isn’t linear—small misjudgments can snowball into massive overruns.

Aaron Percival @ampercival.bsky.social · Oct 7

3/

What leaders can do now:
• Budget at P80–P95 and track portfolio exposure
• Prefer modular, platform-based delivery
• Avoid “bespoke by default”
• Pre-authorize kill-switches and pivots for early intervention

Aaron Percival @ampercival.bsky.social · Oct 7

2/

Compared with 22 other project types—from roads and rail to wind farms and even nuclear—IT is the worst once overruns hit.

Its risk tail is heavier than any peer. “Rare” blowouts aren’t background noise—they define outcomes, distort forecasts, and erode trust.

Aaron Percival @ampercival.bsky.social · Oct 7

Why do IT projects go off the rails... fast?

This week on Beyond the Status Quo, I unpack Flyvbjerg’s analysis of 11,011 projects. IT looks steady—until it doesn’t. Once costs pass 50% over, the average blowout is 453%. That’s wild risk where the “tail” drives the story.

🧵👇

When IT Projects Go Wild: What We Need to Know

Happy Tuesday, Transformation Friends.

open.substack.com

Aaron Percival @ampercival.bsky.social · Sep 23

Your turn: Which gap do you think erodes trust the most? Reply with your vote ⬇️

1️⃣ Misreading needs
2️⃣ Wrong standards
3️⃣ Weak delivery
4️⃣ Overpromising

#PublicService #TrustInGovernment #GovInnovation

Aaron Percival @ampercival.bsky.social · Sep 23

4/

Closing these gaps isn’t an academic exercise. It’s about whether citizens feel respected, heard, and served. Public trust grows when expectations and experiences align.

Aaron Percival @ampercival.bsky.social · Sep 23

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The last one, expectation vs. perception, is key. But it only widens if leaders misread needs, set poor standards, or fail in delivery. Trust unravels when these gaps reinforce each other.

Aaron Percival @ampercival.bsky.social · Sep 23

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Researchers found 5 major “gaps” in service quality:
– Misreading needs
– Wrong standards
– Delivery failures
– Overpromising in comms
– Expectation vs. perception

Aaron Percival @ampercival.bsky.social · Sep 23

Public service quality isn’t just about speed or efficiency. Citizens judge it by the gaps between what they expect and what they actually experience.

Those gaps can make or break trust.

🧵👇

Decoding the Gaps and Determinants of Service Quality

Unveiling the Secret to Service Excellence

aaronpercival.substack.com

Aaron Percival @ampercival.bsky.social · Sep 19

Uniqueness is tempting. But humility + data are what deliver.

📄 Original article: ti.org/pdfs/IronLaw...
📄 HBR feature: hbr.org/2025/03/the-...

#Leadership #ProjectManagement

Aaron Percival @ampercival.bsky.social · Sep 19

4/

So, when someone says “This project is different,” ask:
✅ Which reference class does it belong to?
✅ What do similar projects cost or take in time?
✅ What’s the track record for this kind of work?
✅ Who’s done it before?

Aaron Percival @ampercival.bsky.social · Sep 19

3/

The truth? Most projects have close siblings—or at least cousins. Dismissing that lineage means missing out on hard-won lessons that could save millions and prevent delays.

Aaron Percival @ampercival.bsky.social · Sep 19

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When leaders claim their initiative is one-of-a-kind, they stop learning from history. Benchmarks are ignored. Risks are underestimated. Costs and timelines drift.

Aaron Percival @ampercival.bsky.social · Sep 19

“Project managers who think their project is unique are therefore a liability.”

Bent Flyvbjerg’s research shows why. 🧵👇