Andy Harless
@andyharless.bsky.social
datums scientist; economist; rhapsode; urban hiker; XCH, StellaCoin, pre08 NGDP trajectory maxi; pair of ragged claws scuttling across the floors of silent seas
Pinned
Andy Harless
@andyharless.bsky.social
· Oct 20
I admit my bio contains inaccurate information: I’m actually not a pair of ragged claws scuttling across the floors of silent seas, but…I should have been
Rapid economic growth (poor countries getting less poor, rich countries getting richer) is associated with falling birth rates. Adverse shocks to growth (Great Depression, Great Recession, Lost Decade) are also associated with falling birth rates. Can someone explain what's gong on here? (1/2)
February 1, 2026 at 6:19 PM
Rapid economic growth (poor countries getting less poor, rich countries getting richer) is associated with falling birth rates. Adverse shocks to growth (Great Depression, Great Recession, Lost Decade) are also associated with falling birth rates. Can someone explain what's gong on here? (1/2)
So Warsh is a hawk who wants to cut interest rates during a period of inflation? He wants regime change. What is the regime he wants, targeting Republican control of Congress instead of the inflation rate? (Probably miss the target this time anyhow, but I guess they can try.)
January 30, 2026 at 3:36 PM
So Warsh is a hawk who wants to cut interest rates during a period of inflation? He wants regime change. What is the regime he wants, targeting Republican control of Congress instead of the inflation rate? (Probably miss the target this time anyhow, but I guess they can try.)
Silver setting wild records, with no help from the Hunt brothers this time around.
January 26, 2026 at 3:22 PM
Silver setting wild records, with no help from the Hunt brothers this time around.
Any chance of a Labor-Tory coalition in the next cycle?
January 16, 2026 at 9:38 PM
Any chance of a Labor-Tory coalition in the next cycle?
I feel like key changes in popular music must have some kind of relationship to economic activity.
January 1, 2026 at 2:13 PM
I feel like key changes in popular music must have some kind of relationship to economic activity.
Unemployment claims remain low presumably because the people who need jobs are disproportionately those who have never been employed in a job that would qualify for unemployment insurance.
December 24, 2025 at 2:07 PM
Unemployment claims remain low presumably because the people who need jobs are disproportionately those who have never been employed in a job that would qualify for unemployment insurance.
This one seems to have been popular on Threads
December 14, 2025 at 6:15 PM
This one seems to have been popular on Threads
While we were yet Trotskyites, Orwell died for us.
November 25, 2025 at 4:50 AM
While we were yet Trotskyites, Orwell died for us.
August/September payrolls data are always suspect because they depends on various aspects of how the academic year is playing out.
November 20, 2025 at 6:22 PM
August/September payrolls data are always suspect because they depends on various aspects of how the academic year is playing out.
Gonna ask this again this morning. I don’t know anything about the substantive details in places like Texas, but gerrymanders are notoriously fragile in that they involve diluting the votes from your strongest districts.
What are the chances that the Republican gerrymanders could backfire, given a (potentially large) shift in generic preference away from the Republicans?
November 5, 2025 at 2:33 PM
Gonna ask this again this morning. I don’t know anything about the substantive details in places like Texas, but gerrymanders are notoriously fragile in that they involve diluting the votes from your strongest districts.
What are the chances that the Republican gerrymanders could backfire, given a (potentially large) shift in generic preference away from the Republicans?
November 1, 2025 at 8:32 PM
What are the chances that the Republican gerrymanders could backfire, given a (potentially large) shift in generic preference away from the Republicans?
Do coalitions of the moderate left and the far right (that exclude the center-right) happen outside the US? Because that's basically what the Democratic Party was during most of the 20th century.
October 25, 2025 at 4:41 PM
Do coalitions of the moderate left and the far right (that exclude the center-right) happen outside the US? Because that's basically what the Democratic Party was during most of the 20th century.
In my head I still hear John Lennon singing “Here…comes..the Shit…King”
October 22, 2025 at 6:08 PM
In my head I still hear John Lennon singing “Here…comes..the Shit…King”
Liver damage is a potential side effect of blood thinners. The mechanism is that people have to avoid NSAIDs, so they end up taking too much acetaminophen. Doctors should consider this potential adverse effect when prescribing blood thinners.
October 9, 2025 at 4:06 PM
Liver damage is a potential side effect of blood thinners. The mechanism is that people have to avoid NSAIDs, so they end up taking too much acetaminophen. Doctors should consider this potential adverse effect when prescribing blood thinners.
For me the subjective probability that Tylenol increases the risk of ASD is slightly higher than the probability that JD actually fucked a couch; but the harm done by acting in accordance with the latter belief is minimal. Always be integrating your loss function over your posterior #ABIYLFOYP
October 9, 2025 at 1:32 PM
For me the subjective probability that Tylenol increases the risk of ASD is slightly higher than the probability that JD actually fucked a couch; but the harm done by acting in accordance with the latter belief is minimal. Always be integrating your loss function over your posterior #ABIYLFOYP
We could end up with too few people to do the work (e.g., to care for old people) or too many people to do the work (e.g., AI takes all the jobs). I don’t expect either, but I’m more concerned about the adjustments needed for a stagnant population than those needed for advancing technology.
October 4, 2025 at 7:40 PM
We could end up with too few people to do the work (e.g., to care for old people) or too many people to do the work (e.g., AI takes all the jobs). I don’t expect either, but I’m more concerned about the adjustments needed for a stagnant population than those needed for advancing technology.
AFAICT, Starbucks was a bank pretending to be a coffee company, but closing a lot of stores destroys the value of its banking services, so it's just going to be a failed coffee company now.
October 3, 2025 at 6:03 PM
AFAICT, Starbucks was a bank pretending to be a coffee company, but closing a lot of stores destroys the value of its banking services, so it's just going to be a failed coffee company now.
Wouldn’t it be reasonable to make a counter offer, “To keep the government open, we’ll give you some of what you want, but not the part where you fund healthcare for illegal aliens and change everyone’s gender“?
September 30, 2025 at 9:57 PM
Wouldn’t it be reasonable to make a counter offer, “To keep the government open, we’ll give you some of what you want, but not the part where you fund healthcare for illegal aliens and change everyone’s gender“?
Thinking abstractly about AI replacing humans, I think the big economic issue is whether the resources AI uses are underpriced. If labor is available, they'll ultimately find something for labor to do, unless it's too relatively expensive because some costs of non-human resources are unpriced.
September 30, 2025 at 5:47 PM
Thinking abstractly about AI replacing humans, I think the big economic issue is whether the resources AI uses are underpriced. If labor is available, they'll ultimately find something for labor to do, unless it's too relatively expensive because some costs of non-human resources are unpriced.
AFAICT it would be in the political interest of the Republicans to do a TACO on the shutdown, because the Democrats will then be blamed for everything that goes wrong. Best case politically for Democrats is that Republicans change Senate rules, pass the CR, and then get blamed for premium hikes &c.
September 30, 2025 at 4:25 PM
AFAICT it would be in the political interest of the Republicans to do a TACO on the shutdown, because the Democrats will then be blamed for everything that goes wrong. Best case politically for Democrats is that Republicans change Senate rules, pass the CR, and then get blamed for premium hikes &c.
People tell me AI is crowding out residential investment, but they also tell me AI is taking everyone’s job. I don’t think both can be true, and I don’t think either one is true. Rather, AI is a distraction, and bad trade and immigration policies are just making things harder for everyone.
September 25, 2025 at 10:32 PM
People tell me AI is crowding out residential investment, but they also tell me AI is taking everyone’s job. I don’t think both can be true, and I don’t think either one is true. Rather, AI is a distraction, and bad trade and immigration policies are just making things harder for everyone.
So…neurotypicalism is caused by a deficiency of acetaminophen during pregnancy. Am I getting this right?
September 22, 2025 at 2:48 PM
So…neurotypicalism is caused by a deficiency of acetaminophen during pregnancy. Am I getting this right?
I expect health insurers waste a lot of money requiring very expensive tests to qualify for less expensive treatments.
September 19, 2025 at 4:54 PM
I expect health insurers waste a lot of money requiring very expensive tests to qualify for less expensive treatments.
Right now, my money would be on June 2025 as the US business cycle peak, but I'd still keep an option on January 2025, just for poetic reasons. Trump inherited a softening economy and perhaps managed to push it over the edge within a couple of weeks.
September 11, 2025 at 6:01 PM
Right now, my money would be on June 2025 as the US business cycle peak, but I'd still keep an option on January 2025, just for poetic reasons. Trump inherited a softening economy and perhaps managed to push it over the edge within a couple of weeks.
Why is the yield curve still close to normal? Shouldn’t 2s10s be record steep by now?
They're now saying it out loud: The Administration's goal is to undo the political independence that Congress granted the Fed, so that the President can directly set rates.
Vance on undermining the Federal Reserve: "I don't think we allow bureaucrats to make decisions about monetary policy and interest rates without any input from the people that were elected to serve the American people...POTUS is much better able to make these determinations."
August 29, 2025 at 2:07 AM
Why is the yield curve still close to normal? Shouldn’t 2s10s be record steep by now?