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Archie Hall @archiehall.bsky.social · 3d

And a dispatch from @dlknowles.bsky.social from the ICE raids in Chicago www.economist.com/united-stat...

Archie Hall @archiehall.bsky.social · 3d

11/ So at least for now, Zero Migration America is here to stay. Best start getting used to it.

Here's the piece again: www.economist.com/finance-and...

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Archie Hall @archiehall.bsky.social · 3d

10/ But: even unpopular Trump policies have a habit of sticking around. And there's little indication the administration has much desire to slow down.

Business complaints, even in industries with effective lobbying operations, so far haven't done much.

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Archie Hall @archiehall.bsky.social · 3d

9/ The $100k H1-B fee also polls terribly: 57% of Americans opposite it, only 26% support it. Even among Republicans it's barely above water.

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Archie Hall @archiehall.bsky.social · 3d

8/ Will the policy stick?

Public opinion on migration has rebounded sharply upward this year. 79% of Americans now thing immigration is good for the country, the highest on record.

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Archie Hall @archiehall.bsky.social · 3d

7/ ... its issues with an aging workforce, especially if what we're seeing today sticks.

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Archie Hall @archiehall.bsky.social · 3d

6/ Zero Migration also worsens America's deficit problems, and...

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Archie Hall @archiehall.bsky.social · 3d

5/ The hit to growth from a serious attempt to squeeze skilled migration would be pretty stark.

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Archie Hall @archiehall.bsky.social · 3d

4/ But the more consequential story is long-term.

The H1-B fee mess showed a fairly clear direction of travel on the Trump admin's desire to pull down skilled migration. The next place to watch is OPT, the post-grad work status that gets most talented foreigners into the US.

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Archie Hall @archiehall.bsky.social · 3d

3/ Short-term, this will clearly be vastly disruptive.
— Plenty of industries like construction and farming lean very heavily on immigrant workers.
— High migration helped enable the 'soft landing' in 2023/4, by absorbing outsize labour demand. We could now see the reverse.

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Archie Hall @archiehall.bsky.social · 3d

2/ What's happened? Crossings at the southern border have crashed after Trump's asylum ban.

Deportations are up and skilled-worker visa are already creeping down (even before talk of the $100k H1-B fee).

That is a stark reversal: net migration was ~2-3m in 2023 and 2024.

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Archie Hall @archiehall.bsky.social · 3d

For the first time in about 70 years, net immigration to America could be zero. Beneath the noise of tariff and budget fights, migration may well be the biggest economic story of 2025.

My latest for @economist.com: Welcome to Zero Migration America

Link: www.economist.com/finance-and...

🧵 below

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Archie Hall @archiehall.bsky.social · 3d

10/ But: even unpopular Trump policies have a habit of sticking around. And there's little indication the administration has much desire to slow down.

Business complaints, even in industries with effective lobbying operations, so far haven't done much.

Archie Hall @archiehall.bsky.social · 3d

9/ The $100k H1-B fee also polls terribly: 57% of Americans opposite it, only 26% support it. Even among Republicans it's barely above water.

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Archie Hall @archiehall.bsky.social · 3d

8/ Will the policy stick?

Public opinion on migration has rebounded sharply upward this year. 79% of Americans now thing immigration is good for the country, the highest on record.

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Archie Hall @archiehall.bsky.social · 3d

7/ ... its issues with an aging workforce, especially if what we're seeing today sticks.

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Archie Hall @archiehall.bsky.social · 3d

6/ Zero Migration also worsens America's deficit problems, and...

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Archie Hall @archiehall.bsky.social · 3d

5/ The hit to growth from a serious attempt to squeeze skilled migration would be pretty stark.

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Archie Hall @archiehall.bsky.social · 3d

4/ But the more consequential story is long-term.

The H1-B fee mess showed a fairly clear direction of travel on the Trump admin's desire to pull down skilled migration. The next place to watch is OPT, the post-grad work status that gets most talented foreigners into the US.

1

Archie Hall @archiehall.bsky.social · 3d

3/ Short-term, this will clearly be vastly disruptive.
— Plenty of industries like construction and farming lean very heavily on immigrant workers.
— High migration helped enable the 'soft landing' in 2023/4, by absorbing outsize labour demand. We could now see the reverse.

1

Archie Hall @archiehall.bsky.social · 3d

2/ What's happened? Crossings at the southern border have crashed after Trump's asylum ban.

Deportations are up and skilled-worker visa are already creeping down (even before talk of the $100k H1-B fee).

That is a stark reversal: net migration was ~2-3m in 2023 and 2024.

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Archie Hall @archiehall.bsky.social · 15d

Pretty crazy how the economic weakness of H1 2025 has just been... revised away

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Archie Hall @archiehall.bsky.social · 23d

I wonder who...

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Reposted by Archie Hall

Matt Steinglass @mattsteinglass.bsky.social · 25d

Goes nicely with a slice of @spignal.bsky.social 's column about Europe's increasingly pungent lack of urgency www.economist.com/europe/2025/...

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Archie Hall @archiehall.bsky.social · 25d

(And do read the piece there’s lots of stats-parsing in there too aside from the slightly provocative GDP chart)

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