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Raymond Hicks @arpie71.bsky.social · 17d

Also thrilled to see @petercontibrown.bsky.social excellent work mentiond.

Raymond Hicks @arpie71.bsky.social · 17d

Big day! 🚨 My work with Cristina Bodea on [central bank independence](www.cambridge.org/core/journal...) just got cited at the [Supreme Court](www.supremecourt.gov/DocketPDF/25...)

Price Stability and Central Bank Independence: Discipline, Credibility, and Democratic Institutions | International Organization | Cambridge Core

Price Stability and Central Bank Independence: Discipline, Credibility, and Democratic Institutions - Volume 69 Issue 1

www.cambridge.org

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Raymond Hicks @arpie71.bsky.social · May 7

Read more: goodauthority.org/news/can-cen...
#Econ #MonetaryPolicy #Fed #RuleOfLaw #CentralBanks

Can central banks and sound money survive a collapse in the rule of law?

The Fed and other central banks function best when politicians let them do their mandated job.

goodauthority.org

Raymond Hicks @arpie71.bsky.social · May 7

Central banks are meant to be independent. But what happens when the rule of law erodes?
New @goodauth.bsky.social post by Cristina Bodea & @arpie71.bsky.social breaks down why central bank independence relies not just on legal design—but on democratic institutions that protect it.

Can central banks and sound money survive a collapse in the rule of law?

The Fed and other central banks function best when politicians let them do their mandated job.

goodauthority.org

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Reposted by Raymond Hicks

Good Authority @goodauth.bsky.social · May 7

Can central banks and sound money survive a collapse in the rule of law?

Read our latest on the importance of sound money.

goodauthority.org/news/can-cen...

Can central banks and sound money survive a collapse in the rule of law?

The Fed and other central banks function best when politicians let them do their mandated job.

goodauthority.org

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Reposted by Raymond Hicks

history-lab.bsky.social @history-lab.bsky.social · Apr 28

We’ve just released new Stata (github.com/history-lab/...) and R (github.com/history-lab/...) packages that make it easy to pull History Lab’s text and metadata directly into your favorite statistical tools.

Learn more about what we do at lab.history.columbia.edu!

GitHub - history-lab/hlapiStata: Stata package to access History Lab API

Stata package to access History Lab API. Contribute to history-lab/hlapiStata development by creating an account on GitHub.

github.com

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Raymond Hicks @arpie71.bsky.social · Apr 10

The final possibility is a multilateral version of the above. This would just be the WTO. Whichever of these occurs, we can be sure that victory will be claimed.

Raymond Hicks @arpie71.bsky.social · Apr 10

A second possibility is a return to RTAA-type bilateral negotiation governed by something like the principal supplier rule. A country who supplies the most of a product to the US can negotiate for a lower rate but all countries will get the lower rate.

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Raymond Hicks @arpie71.bsky.social · Apr 10

The first, and most problematic, is bilateral negotiations that differentially reduce tariff rates. As @kevinhorourke.bsky.social has been worried about, this destroys nondiscrimination.

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Raymond Hicks @arpie71.bsky.social · Apr 10

This means that firms affected will lobby for a return to a higher rate with all the same potential issues as with lobbying for lower rates. The final step is unclear. I can think of 3 possibilities.

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Raymond Hicks @arpie71.bsky.social · Apr 10

This is a amplified continuation of that with firms "lobbying" for lower rates on existing lines.
The second step will be from the opposite direction. If a universal 10% tariff is applied, some products will see a reduction in tariffs.

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Raymond Hicks @arpie71.bsky.social · Apr 10

We are now seeing the first step: bsky.app/profile/pwna.... In Song Kim and Helen Milner argue that some domestic firms will lobby for lower tariffs. US government carves out new tariff lines with a reduced rate to help while old line rate is kept higher to protect other firms.

Pwnallthethings @pwnallthethings.bsky.social · Apr 10

This is a 12 alarm fire for the economy. If being friends with the president and giving him kickbacks makes you exempt from large import taxes Vs your competitors, it will stratify the whole economy and push corruption and loyalty and political controls deep into the private sector

Trump says he will consider exempting some US companies from tariffs

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Raymond Hicks @arpie71.bsky.social · Apr 10

A couple of weeks ago, I started writing something up on how with the "reciprocal" tariffs, we would end up back in nearly the same place as before, except victory would be declared and the tariff schedule would be touted as the greatest thing ever, despite not changing.

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Reposted by Raymond Hicks

Raymond Hicks @arpie71.bsky.social · Mar 7

So Trump calls me up and he's like "tariffs are off" and I'm like:

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Raymond Hicks @arpie71.bsky.social · Apr 4

For the WTO to survive, countries need to respond _within_ its framework. Ideally, the Contracting Parties would meet and vote to suspend all concessions to the US. They could also vote to add an amendment nullifying non-discrimination in the event that one party violates it unilaterally.

Raymond Hicks @arpie71.bsky.social · Apr 3

Article XXIII (nullification) was not sufficient. Instead, the US sought remedy under Article XXV (Joint Action). Czechoslovakia agreed and the Contracting Parties ruled that both countries were free from obligations to the other.

Raymond Hicks @arpie71.bsky.social · Apr 3

In 1951, the US petitioned the GATT to suspend its concessions with Czechoslovakia. It argued that "because we can not reasonably anticipate an improvement of our commerce with Czechoslovakia so long as the present state of relations between us exists" (history.state.gov/historicaldo...)

Historical Documents - Office of the Historian

history.state.gov 3.0 shell

history.state.gov

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Raymond Hicks @arpie71.bsky.social · Apr 3

It is uncharted territory. Even before the GATT/WTO the RTAs and Treaties of Commerce guaranteed non-discrimination. I don't think any trade agreement has provisions for violations such as this. How the world and WTO respond becomes vitally important for the future of the global trade regime.

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Raymond Hicks @arpie71.bsky.social · Mar 15

I will never complain about the review process again. (From Ian Stewart's Visions of Infinity)

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Raymond Hicks @arpie71.bsky.social · Mar 13

I should have read the fine print when the U.S. replace MFN with Permanent* Normal^ Trade** Relations^^.

* Timeframe not guaranteed
^ HA, Your mileage may vary
** Yeah, this one still works, for now
^^ Quality of relations not specified

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Raymond Hicks @arpie71.bsky.social · Mar 10

Trade wars are accelerating the decline of international economic governance. But instead of collapsing, global trade institutions are lurching forward in a zombie-like state. What happens next? Julia Gray describes our coming era of half-dead internationalism

Zombie institutions could have "afterlives," but little power.

Zombie internationalism sees a slow, stumbling transformation, and decreased trust in international agreements and global institutions.

goodauthority.org

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Raymond Hicks @arpie71.bsky.social · Mar 7

So Trump calls me up and he's like "tariffs are off" and I'm like:

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Raymond Hicks @arpie71.bsky.social · Mar 6

Version 2 of my dropbox command is out. This tool locates a user’s Dropbox folder automatically and adds an option to search a secondary drive before moving to the primary one. Installation instructions at github.com/arpie71/drop.... (Thanks to
@kevinhorourke.bsky.social for suggesting changes)

GitHub - arpie71/dropbox

Contribute to arpie71/dropbox development by creating an account on GitHub.

github.com

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Reposted by Raymond Hicks

Peter Ungphakorn @coppetainpu.bsky.social · Mar 5

Canada has challenged Trump's tariffs at the WTO. Clearly Trump won't care since the US can block any ruling (by appealing "into the void"), but Canada is also making a statement about the need to play by the rules.

www.wto.org/english/news...

Canada initiates WTO dispute complaint regarding US tariff measures

Canada has requested WTO dispute consultations with the United States regarding new tariff measures applied by the United States on goods originating in Canada. The request was circulated to WTO memb...

www.wto.org

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Raymond Hicks @arpie71.bsky.social · Mar 5

I've been thinking about this song a lot: www.youtube.com/watch?v=Az5d...
I'm waiting for a Democratic politician to attempt a "decency" moment rather than a "gotcha" moment.

Exhuming McCarthy

YouTube video by R.E.M. - Topic

www.youtube.com