Ben Vincent, DPhil
@benvincent.bsky.social
Data Scientist | Bayes | Causal reasoning | Python + Julia | Ex-academic | #MMT
drbenvincent.github.io
drbenvincent.github.io
If you’ve been interested in universal basic income, then you need to know about this alternative… the Job Guarantee.
Read the details of how it would work here.
Read the details of how it would work here.
MMTUK's proposed Job Guarantee wage: £15/hr (£31,200/yr), benchmarked to the Minimum Income Standard, the income needed for a socially acceptable living standard.
Includes 28 days paid leave, statutory sick pay and pension contributions.
mmtuk.org/job-guarantee #MMT
Includes 28 days paid leave, statutory sick pay and pension contributions.
mmtuk.org/job-guarantee #MMT
Job Guarantee | MMTUK
Learn about the Job Guarantee proposal.
mmtuk.org
February 19, 2026 at 8:01 AM
If you’ve been interested in universal basic income, then you need to know about this alternative… the Job Guarantee.
Read the details of how it would work here.
Read the details of how it would work here.
Reposted by Ben Vincent, DPhil
MMTUK has launched
We're a new, independent research organisation bringing Modern Monetary Theory to UK policy debates.
Our first paper launches later this month: a fully-costed UK Job Guarantee proposal.
mmtuk.org #MMT #UKPolitics
We're a new, independent research organisation bringing Modern Monetary Theory to UK policy debates.
Our first paper launches later this month: a fully-costed UK Job Guarantee proposal.
mmtuk.org #MMT #UKPolitics
Home | MMTUK
MMTUK is an independent research organisation producing evidence-based economic analysis informed by Modern Monetary Theory. Explore our articles, education resources and community.
mmtuk.org
February 6, 2026 at 11:56 AM
MMTUK has launched
We're a new, independent research organisation bringing Modern Monetary Theory to UK policy debates.
Our first paper launches later this month: a fully-costed UK Job Guarantee proposal.
mmtuk.org #MMT #UKPolitics
We're a new, independent research organisation bringing Modern Monetary Theory to UK policy debates.
Our first paper launches later this month: a fully-costed UK Job Guarantee proposal.
mmtuk.org #MMT #UKPolitics
If you’ve previously written off LLM’s as hype-based hallucinators, you might be forgiven, based on the early models.
But that view isn’t accurate any more. Current versions are seriously impressive. Pay attention to what us scientists and coders are reporting.
youtu.be/PctlBxRh0p4?...
But that view isn’t accurate any more. Current versions are seriously impressive. Pay attention to what us scientists and coders are reporting.
youtu.be/PctlBxRh0p4?...
We Need To Talk About AI...
YouTube video by Cool Worlds Podcast
youtu.be
February 2, 2026 at 7:52 AM
If you’ve previously written off LLM’s as hype-based hallucinators, you might be forgiven, based on the early models.
But that view isn’t accurate any more. Current versions are seriously impressive. Pay attention to what us scientists and coders are reporting.
youtu.be/PctlBxRh0p4?...
But that view isn’t accurate any more. Current versions are seriously impressive. Pay attention to what us scientists and coders are reporting.
youtu.be/PctlBxRh0p4?...
Here’s a post I wrote about The Illusion of Explanatory Depth drbenvincent.medium.com/the-illusion... (but also sneaks in some #mmt)
The Illusion of Explanatory Depth: Why Our Mental Models of the State are Broken
There is a common cognitive trap: you feel you understand how something works, until you are asked to explain it. Psychologists call this the illusion of explanatory depth (Rozenblit & Keil, 2002)…
drbenvincent.medium.com
January 24, 2026 at 10:37 AM
Here’s a post I wrote about The Illusion of Explanatory Depth drbenvincent.medium.com/the-illusion... (but also sneaks in some #mmt)
Reposted by Ben Vincent, DPhil
Not an Economic Question but a Question about Economics
open.substack.com/pub/susanbor...
open.substack.com/pub/susanbor...
Not an Economic Question but a Question about Economics
Why Can’t We Discuss MMT?
open.substack.com
January 19, 2026 at 4:11 AM
Not an Economic Question but a Question about Economics
open.substack.com/pub/susanbor...
open.substack.com/pub/susanbor...
When I hear “LLMs are just guessing words,” I think “Bayes is just arithmetic.” True at one level - yet it misses the emergent capabilities.
January 18, 2026 at 8:05 PM
When I hear “LLMs are just guessing words,” I think “Bayes is just arithmetic.” True at one level - yet it misses the emergent capabilities.
Reposted by Ben Vincent, DPhil
Scotland’s Economics Festival is a unique, public-facing celebration of economic thinking – designed to challenge, inform, and inspire. Edinburgh 19th- 21st March 2026. www.scoteconfest.org/. Tickets are available now. Speakers include 🎤
January 4, 2026 at 4:59 PM
Scotland’s Economics Festival is a unique, public-facing celebration of economic thinking – designed to challenge, inform, and inspire. Edinburgh 19th- 21st March 2026. www.scoteconfest.org/. Tickets are available now. Speakers include 🎤
Reposted by Ben Vincent, DPhil
Introducing: The Bayesian Marketing Analytics Course by PyMC Labs.
Stop guessing if your ROI is real or just market noise. Master uncertainty-aware decision rules and causal inference in a course led by #PyMC lead practitioners.
Join our February cohort: dub.link/AHtL0NY
Stop guessing if your ROI is real or just market noise. Master uncertainty-aware decision rules and causal inference in a course led by #PyMC lead practitioners.
Join our February cohort: dub.link/AHtL0NY
January 5, 2026 at 2:03 PM
Introducing: The Bayesian Marketing Analytics Course by PyMC Labs.
Stop guessing if your ROI is real or just market noise. Master uncertainty-aware decision rules and causal inference in a course led by #PyMC lead practitioners.
Join our February cohort: dub.link/AHtL0NY
Stop guessing if your ROI is real or just market noise. Master uncertainty-aware decision rules and causal inference in a course led by #PyMC lead practitioners.
Join our February cohort: dub.link/AHtL0NY
My EV does 3.1–4 miles per kWh and my off-peak rate is 8.5p/kWh. That’s about 2.13–2.74p per mile in electricity.
Add the new 3p/mile tax and it jumps to 5.13–5.74p per mile – more than doubling my running costs (about 2.1–2.4× higher).
Punishing EV’as is a bizarre policy choice.
Add the new 3p/mile tax and it jumps to 5.13–5.74p per mile – more than doubling my running costs (about 2.1–2.4× higher).
Punishing EV’as is a bizarre policy choice.
November 26, 2025 at 2:08 PM
My EV does 3.1–4 miles per kWh and my off-peak rate is 8.5p/kWh. That’s about 2.13–2.74p per mile in electricity.
Add the new 3p/mile tax and it jumps to 5.13–5.74p per mile – more than doubling my running costs (about 2.1–2.4× higher).
Punishing EV’as is a bizarre policy choice.
Add the new 3p/mile tax and it jumps to 5.13–5.74p per mile – more than doubling my running costs (about 2.1–2.4× higher).
Punishing EV’as is a bizarre policy choice.
Reposted by Ben Vincent, DPhil
The very first thing the Prime Minister does is use the household budget metaphor.
A metaphor - this report into BBC coverage - said could be "easily misleading."
Why is the government trying to mislead the country?
A metaphor - this report into BBC coverage - said could be "easily misleading."
Why is the government trying to mislead the country?
November 26, 2025 at 12:05 PM
The very first thing the Prime Minister does is use the household budget metaphor.
A metaphor - this report into BBC coverage - said could be "easily misleading."
Why is the government trying to mislead the country?
A metaphor - this report into BBC coverage - said could be "easily misleading."
Why is the government trying to mislead the country?
Reposted by Ben Vincent, DPhil
#CausalPy 0.6.0 adds Bayesian Propensity Score Enhancements!
Flexible spline adjustments, improved joint modeling, and an example notebook make scoring more robust, showing how design thinking complements #Bayesian estimation.
🧩Try it on Github: dub.link/9jkcRao
Flexible spline adjustments, improved joint modeling, and an example notebook make scoring more robust, showing how design thinking complements #Bayesian estimation.
🧩Try it on Github: dub.link/9jkcRao
November 21, 2025 at 2:30 PM
#CausalPy 0.6.0 adds Bayesian Propensity Score Enhancements!
Flexible spline adjustments, improved joint modeling, and an example notebook make scoring more robust, showing how design thinking complements #Bayesian estimation.
🧩Try it on Github: dub.link/9jkcRao
Flexible spline adjustments, improved joint modeling, and an example notebook make scoring more robust, showing how design thinking complements #Bayesian estimation.
🧩Try it on Github: dub.link/9jkcRao
Reposted by Ben Vincent, DPhil
🚀 #CausalPy 0.6.0 is live!
A key highlight: the new Prior class, enabling fully custom #Bayesian priors and advanced setups like spike-and-slab or synthetic control models.
More flexibility, more transparency, better causal modeling.
🧩 𝗖𝗵𝗲𝗰𝗸 𝗶𝘁 𝗼𝘂𝘁 𝗼𝗻 𝗚𝗶𝘁𝗛𝘂𝗯: dub.link/QrkzW8C
A key highlight: the new Prior class, enabling fully custom #Bayesian priors and advanced setups like spike-and-slab or synthetic control models.
More flexibility, more transparency, better causal modeling.
🧩 𝗖𝗵𝗲𝗰𝗸 𝗶𝘁 𝗼𝘂𝘁 𝗼𝗻 𝗚𝗶𝘁𝗛𝘂𝗯: dub.link/QrkzW8C
November 19, 2025 at 3:19 PM
🚀 #CausalPy 0.6.0 is live!
A key highlight: the new Prior class, enabling fully custom #Bayesian priors and advanced setups like spike-and-slab or synthetic control models.
More flexibility, more transparency, better causal modeling.
🧩 𝗖𝗵𝗲𝗰𝗸 𝗶𝘁 𝗼𝘂𝘁 𝗼𝗻 𝗚𝗶𝘁𝗛𝘂𝗯: dub.link/QrkzW8C
A key highlight: the new Prior class, enabling fully custom #Bayesian priors and advanced setups like spike-and-slab or synthetic control models.
More flexibility, more transparency, better causal modeling.
🧩 𝗖𝗵𝗲𝗰𝗸 𝗶𝘁 𝗼𝘂𝘁 𝗼𝗻 𝗚𝗶𝘁𝗛𝘂𝗯: dub.link/QrkzW8C
Random data viz. Solar generation from our modest array. From May 2023 onwards.
November 3, 2025 at 9:01 PM
Random data viz. Solar generation from our modest array. From May 2023 onwards.
Reposted by Ben Vincent, DPhil
I've finally got around to curating a selection of films about the #climate crisis 🎥
There's lot of mediocre climate films out there, but for me these stand out head & shoulders above the rest 🎞️
They make excellent resources for classrooms, lecture halls, or community cinema's 🎬
Thread:🧵Plz RT
There's lot of mediocre climate films out there, but for me these stand out head & shoulders above the rest 🎞️
They make excellent resources for classrooms, lecture halls, or community cinema's 🎬
Thread:🧵Plz RT
November 1, 2025 at 10:17 AM
I've finally got around to curating a selection of films about the #climate crisis 🎥
There's lot of mediocre climate films out there, but for me these stand out head & shoulders above the rest 🎞️
They make excellent resources for classrooms, lecture halls, or community cinema's 🎬
Thread:🧵Plz RT
There's lot of mediocre climate films out there, but for me these stand out head & shoulders above the rest 🎞️
They make excellent resources for classrooms, lecture halls, or community cinema's 🎬
Thread:🧵Plz RT
Lost like this is going to be interesting. This guy knows more than me, no doubt, but at 7m 7s he says something which seems totally wrong. That there is no government money, only private bank money 🤨
youtu.be/GKvSMtqhccw?...
youtu.be/GKvSMtqhccw?...
Russell Napier, "Money Creation in Peace and War".
YouTube video by LoM
youtu.be
October 31, 2025 at 3:11 PM
Lost like this is going to be interesting. This guy knows more than me, no doubt, but at 7m 7s he says something which seems totally wrong. That there is no government money, only private bank money 🤨
youtu.be/GKvSMtqhccw?...
youtu.be/GKvSMtqhccw?...
Every time the chancellor or the media mention fiscal black holes, I just can’t help think about this video which explains it in a way that a 5 year old would understand.
#sectoralbalances
youtu.be/mtDzC3i9i6A?...
#sectoralbalances
youtu.be/mtDzC3i9i6A?...
Fun With Emojis - Sectoral Balances
YouTube video by James Rosier
youtu.be
October 16, 2025 at 11:43 AM
Every time the chancellor or the media mention fiscal black holes, I just can’t help think about this video which explains it in a way that a 5 year old would understand.
#sectoralbalances
youtu.be/mtDzC3i9i6A?...
#sectoralbalances
youtu.be/mtDzC3i9i6A?...
Reposted by Ben Vincent, DPhil
If I can’t make it live (toddler duties) can I ask, “Sectoral balances seem pretty easy to explain. Would you say that this is a good gateway drug into MMT?”
LIVE tonight at 8 pm, introducing Scotland's Sectoral Balances.
ttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2UFR7dK0th4
ttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2UFR7dK0th4
September 24, 2025 at 2:50 PM
If I can’t make it live (toddler duties) can I ask, “Sectoral balances seem pretty easy to explain. Would you say that this is a good gateway drug into MMT?”
Reposted by Ben Vincent, DPhil
Very informative preprint written by several leading causal inference authors that addresses 12 current issues in the field.
arxiv.org/abs/2508.17099
arxiv.org/abs/2508.17099
September 14, 2025 at 6:04 PM
Very informative preprint written by several leading causal inference authors that addresses 12 current issues in the field.
arxiv.org/abs/2508.17099
arxiv.org/abs/2508.17099
Impedance scales are rubbish. They indicate no change - very demoralising. Using skinfold callipers reveals the truth - fat loss and lean mass gain 💪🏻🏋🏻♂️
September 13, 2025 at 8:55 AM
Impedance scales are rubbish. They indicate no change - very demoralising. Using skinfold callipers reveals the truth - fat loss and lean mass gain 💪🏻🏋🏻♂️
Reposted by Ben Vincent, DPhil
The most recent Scottish Government prospectus for independence announced its desire to follow the EU's fiscal rules, the "SGP", once Scotland was independent and BEFORE it joined the EU. No one has ever considered the economic impact of that decision until now. Thread. 1/10
August 19, 2025 at 3:02 PM
The most recent Scottish Government prospectus for independence announced its desire to follow the EU's fiscal rules, the "SGP", once Scotland was independent and BEFORE it joined the EU. No one has ever considered the economic impact of that decision until now. Thread. 1/10
This is quite a painful watch for anyone who understands #MMT. Governments are not households! youtu.be/KHdUAZnGS50?...
Why your government is about to raise YOUR taxes
YouTube video by Garys Economics
youtu.be
August 4, 2025 at 8:17 AM
This is quite a painful watch for anyone who understands #MMT. Governments are not households! youtu.be/KHdUAZnGS50?...
The UK's Online Safety Act has caused a massive increases in Google searches for "VPN."
Quick little Bayesian Causal analysis of Google Trends data. See more on the linked in post here: www.linkedin.com/posts/benjam...
Quick little Bayesian Causal analysis of Google Trends data. See more on the linked in post here: www.linkedin.com/posts/benjam...
July 28, 2025 at 9:37 AM
The UK's Online Safety Act has caused a massive increases in Google searches for "VPN."
Quick little Bayesian Causal analysis of Google Trends data. See more on the linked in post here: www.linkedin.com/posts/benjam...
Quick little Bayesian Causal analysis of Google Trends data. See more on the linked in post here: www.linkedin.com/posts/benjam...