Lightnews — Scholar-powered news

Britain Elects @britainelects.com · 1d

✅ Liberal Democrat HOLD

Yesterday's Yateley West (Hart) council by-election result:

LDEM: 54.7% (-5.9)
REF: 27.9% (+27.9)
CON: 17.3% (-8.2)

No Lab (-10.5) as prev.

+/- 2023

Estimated turnout: ~30% (-4)

andrewteale.me.uk/previews

Andrew’s Previews | Andrew Teale | Substack

"All the right votes, but not necessarily in the right order". Click to read Andrew’s Previews, by Andrew Teale, a Substack publication with thousands of subscribers.

andrewteale.me.uk

2 5 34

Britain Elects @britainelects.com · 1d

❗ Reform GAIN from Independent

Last week's Harrietsham, Lenham and North Downs (Maidstone) council by-election result:

REF: 50.4% (+38.8)
GRN: 18.8% (+18.8)
CON: 14.0% (-2.6)
LDEM: 9.7% (+9.7)
HP: 4.0% (+4.0)
IND(s): 3.0% (-54.8)

No Lab (-13.9) as prev.

+/- 2024

andrewteale.me.uk/previews

Andrew’s Previews | Andrew Teale | Substack

"All the right votes, but not necessarily in the right order". Click to read Andrew’s Previews, by Andrew Teale, a Substack publication with thousands of subscribers.

andrewteale.me.uk

1 4

Britain Elects @britainelects.com · 1d

❗ Reform GAIN from Labour

Last week's Wigan Central (Wigan) council by-election result:

REF: 47.2% (+47.2)
LAB: 32.9% (-20.4)
IND: 6.7% (+6.7)
CON: 5.1% (-20.8)
GRN: 4.4% (+4.4)
LDEM: 3.7% (-17.1)

+/- 2023

Estimated turnout: ~32% (-3)

andrewteale.me.uk/previews

Andrew’s Previews | Andrew Teale | Substack

"All the right votes, but not necessarily in the right order". Click to read Andrew’s Previews, by Andrew Teale, a Substack publication with thousands of subscribers.

andrewteale.me.uk

5

Britain Elects @britainelects.com · 2d

📊 Ref lead of 7pts
Westminster voting intention

REF: 27% (-2)
LAB: 20% (-2)
CON: 17% (+1)
LDEM: 17% (+2)
GRN: 12% (+1)

via @YouGov, 05 - 06 Oct
Chgs. w/ 29 Sep
britainelects.com

Britain Elects | Substack

Cutting through the noise with Ben Walker. Click to read Britain Elects, a Substack publication with thousands of subscribers.

britainelects.com

4 4 16

Britain Elects @britainelects.com · 3d

📊 Ref lead of 10pts
Westminster voting intention

REF: 31% (-1)
LAB: 21% (-1)
CON: 19% (+1)
LDEM: 13% (+1)
GRN: 9% (+3)

via @JLPartnersPolls, 26 Sep - 03 Oct
Chgs. w/ 31 Aug
britainelects.com

Britain Elects | Substack

Cutting through the noise with Ben Walker. Click to read Britain Elects, a Substack publication with thousands of subscribers.

britainelects.com

2 9

Britain Elects @britainelects.com · 5d

📊 Ref lead of 13pts
Westminster voting intention

REF: 34% (+2)
LAB: 21% (-1)
CON: 16% (-1)
LDEM: 12% (-2)
GRN: 10% (+3)

via @OpiniumResearch, 01 - 03 Oct
Chgs. w/ 26 Sep
britainelects.com

Britain Elects | Substack

Cutting through the noise with Ben Walker. Click to read Britain Elects, a Substack publication with thousands of subscribers.

britainelects.com

3 6 11

Britain Elects @britainelects.com · 7d

✅ Labour HOLD

Strawberry (Cheshire West and Chester) council by-election result:

LAB: 35.8% (-32.9)
REF: 32.0% (+32.0)
IND: 13.7% (+13.7)
CON: 7.8% (-16.8)
LDEM: 7.2% (+0.5)
GRN: 3.4% (+3.4)

+/- 2023

Estimated turnout: ~41% (+7)

andrewteale.me.uk/previews

Andrew’s Previews | Andrew Teale | Substack

"All the right votes, but not necessarily in the right order". Click to read Andrew’s Previews, by Andrew Teale, a Substack publication with thousands of subscribers.

andrewteale.me.uk

2 2 29

Britain Elects @britainelects.com · 7d

✅ Labour HOLD

Last week's Strawberry (Cheshire West and Chester) council by-election result:

LAB: 35.8% (-32.9)
REF: 32.0% (+32.0)
IND: 13.7% (+13.7)
CON: 7.8% (-16.8)
LDEM: 7.2% (+0.5)
GRN: 3.4% (+3.4)

+/- 2023

Estimated turnout: ~41% (+7)

andrewteale.me.uk/previews

Andrew’s Previews | Andrew Teale | Substack

"All the right votes, but not necessarily in the right order". Click to read Andrew’s Previews, by Andrew Teale, a Substack publication with thousands of subscribers.

andrewteale.me.uk

2 9

Britain Elects @britainelects.com · 7d

❗ Reform GAIN from Conservative

Hutton South (Brentwood) council by-election result:

REF: 45.8% (+45.8)
CON: 30.9% (-14.5)
LAB: 13.3% (-14.5)
LDEM: 6.2% (-9.6)
GRN: 3.8% (-7.2)

+/- 2024

Estimated turnout: ~60% (+3)

andrewteale.me.uk/previews

Andrew’s Previews | Andrew Teale | Substack

"All the right votes, but not necessarily in the right order". Click to read Andrew’s Previews, by Andrew Teale, a Substack publication with thousands of subscribers.

andrewteale.me.uk

3 4 3

Britain Elects @britainelects.com · 8d

❗ Liberal Democrat GAIN from SNP (seat change)

Last week's Tain and Easter Ross (Highland) council by-election result, first prefs:

LDEM: 38.8% (+17.2)
IND: 28.4% (-8.8)
SNP: 14.8% (-15.8)
REF: 12.9% (+12.9)
GRN: 3.2% (+3.2)
CON: 1.9% (-8.7)

+/- 2022

andrewteale.me.uk/previews

Andrew’s Previews | Andrew Teale | Substack

"All the right votes, but not necessarily in the right order". Click to read Andrew’s Previews, by Andrew Teale, a Substack publication with thousands of subscribers.

andrewteale.me.uk

1 8 32

Britain Elects @britainelects.com · 8d

❗ Independent GAIN from Green (seat change)

Last week's Caol and Mallaig (Highland) council by-election result:

IND (Cameron): 36.3%
IND (Henderson): 30.3%
LDEM: 16.9%
SNP: 8.7%
REF: 4.9%
IND (Prosser): 1.3%
LAB: 1.0%
CON: 0.8%

+/- 2022

Prev. Grn elected unopposed.

No Grn candidate.

Andrew’s Previews | Andrew Teale | Substack

"All the right votes, but not necessarily in the right order". Click to read Andrew’s Previews, by Andrew Teale, a Substack publication with thousands of subscribers.

andrewteale.me.uk

9

Britain Elects @britainelects.com · 8d

✅ Green HOLD

Last week's Rolvenden and Tenterden West (Ashford) council by-election result:

GRN: 36.5% (-16.9)
REF: 31.6% (+31.6)
CON: 27.9% (-10.3)
LDEM: 2.6% (+2.6)
LAB: 1.4% (-7.0)

+/- 2023

Estimated turnout: ~36% (-6)

andrewteale.me.uk/previews

Andrew’s Previews | Andrew Teale | Substack

"All the right votes, but not necessarily in the right order". Click to read Andrew’s Previews, by Andrew Teale, a Substack publication with thousands of subscribers.

andrewteale.me.uk

2 24

Britain Elects @britainelects.com · 8d

✅ Green HOLD

Last week's Woodhouse Park (Manchester) council by-election result:

GRN: 43.8% (-5.7)
REF: 29.5% (+29.5)
LAB: 20.5% (-23.3)
CON: 3.8% (-1.6)
LDEM: 2.5% (+1.1)

+/- 2023

Estimated turnout: ~17% (-6)

andrewteale.me.uk/previews

Andrew’s Previews | Andrew Teale | Substack

"All the right votes, but not necessarily in the right order". Click to read Andrew’s Previews, by Andrew Teale, a Substack publication with thousands of subscribers.

andrewteale.me.uk

1 18

Britain Elects @britainelects.com · 8d

❗ Reform GAIN from Labour

Last week's Thetford Castle (Breckland) council by-election result:

REF: 47.3% (+47.3)
LAB: 26.7% (-15.8)
CON: 15.1% (-13.9)
LDEM: 10.9% (+10.9)

No UKIP (-14.0) Ind (-14.5) as prev.

+/- 2023

Estimated turnout: ~24% (0)

andrewteale.me.uk/previews

Andrew’s Previews | Andrew Teale | Substack

"All the right votes, but not necessarily in the right order". Click to read Andrew’s Previews, by Andrew Teale, a Substack publication with thousands of subscribers.

andrewteale.me.uk

4 3 7

Britain Elects @britainelects.com · 9d

📊 Ref lead of 7pts
Westminster voting intention

REF: 29% (-)
LAB: 22% (+1)
CON: 16% (-)
LDEM: 15% (+1)
GRN: 11% (-1)

via @YouGov, 28 - 29 Sep
Chgs. w/ 22 Sep
britainelects.com

Britain Elects | Substack

Cutting through the noise with Ben Walker. Click to read Britain Elects, a Substack publication with thousands of subscribers.

britainelects.com

4 2 15

Britain Elects @britainelects.com · 14d

Britain Predicts | Gorton and Denton, how the seat would vote in an election today:

REF: 34% (+20)
LAB: 29% (-23)
GRN: 16% (+3)
LDEM: 8% (+4)
WPB: 7% (-3)
CON: 6% (-2)

Reform gain from Labour.

We have also modelled for a possibly Andy Burnham candidacy:
www.newstatesman.com/politics/pol...

4 3 7

Britain Elects @britainelects.com · 14d

📊 Ref lead of 16pts
‼️ Cons in fourth place
Westminster voting intention

REF: 33% (-1)
LAB: 17% (+1)
LDEM: 16% (+3)
CON: 14% (-2)
GRN: 12% (-)

via @FindoutnowUK, 30 Dec
Chgs. w/ 18 Sep
britainelects.com

Britain Elects | Substack

Cutting through the noise with Ben Walker. Click to read Britain Elects, a Substack publication with thousands of subscribers.

britainelects.com

9 3 27

Britain Elects @britainelects.com · 17d

📊 Ref lead of 8pts
Westminster voting intention

REF: 29% (-)
LAB: 21% (+1)
CON: 16% (-1)
LDEM: 14% (-1)
GRN: 12% (+2)

via @YouGov, 21 - 21 Sep
Chgs. w/ 01 Sep
britainelects.com

britainelects.com

5 6 18

Britain Elects @britainelects.com · 19d

❗ Green GAIN from Labour

Yesterday's Queen's Park (Brighton and Hove) council by-election result:

GRN: 48.4% (+24.4)
LAB: 31.1% (-19.9)
REF: 10.1% (+10.1)
LDEM: 4.2% (-0.4)
CON: 3.5% (-3.9)
IND: 2.7% (+2.7)

No IndGrp (-13.1) as prev.

+/- 2023

andrewteale.me.uk/previews

Andrew’s Previews | Andrew Teale | Substack

"All the right votes, but not necessarily in the right order". Click to read Andrew’s Previews, by Andrew Teale, a Substack publication with thousands of subscribers.

andrewteale.me.uk

2 13 89

Britain Elects @britainelects.com · 19d

Lib Dem conference this weekend:
www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk-...

6 41

Britain Elects @britainelects.com · 19d

✅ Green HOLD

Yesterday's Kenilworth Park Hill (Warwick) council by-election result:

GRN: 40.8% (-7.2)
CON: 23.8% (-4.0)
REF: 18.1% (+18.1)
LDEM: 13.9% (+2.6)
LAB: 3.3% (-9.5)

+/- 2023

andrewteale.me.uk/previews

Andrew’s Previews | Andrew Teale | Substack

"All the right votes, but not necessarily in the right order". Click to read Andrew’s Previews, by Andrew Teale, a Substack publication with thousands of subscribers.

andrewteale.me.uk

3 40

Britain Elects @britainelects.com · 20d

✅ Labour HOLD

Yesterday's Leamington Clarendon (Warwick) council by-election result:

LAB: 30.3% (-18.7)
LDEM: 29.6% (+13.3)
REF: 16.3% (+16.3)
GRN: 12.7% (-6.2)
CON: 7.4% (-8.6)
IND: 3.8% (+3.8)

+/- 2023

andrewteale.me.uk/previews

Andrew’s Previews | Andrew Teale | Substack

"All the right votes, but not necessarily in the right order". Click to read Andrew’s Previews, by Andrew Teale, a Substack publication with thousands of subscribers.

andrewteale.me.uk

2 34

Britain Elects @britainelects.com · 20d

❗ Newham Independents GAIN from Labour

Yesterday's Plaistow South (Newham) council by-election result:

NIN: 44.7% (+44.7)
LAB: 21.4% (-34.0)
REF: 16.1% (+16.1)
GRN: 7.4% (-8.4)
CON: 6.0% (-11.5)
LDEM: 4.4% (-6.9)

+/- 2022

Estimated turnout: ~25% (-5)

andrewteale.me.uk/previews

Andrew’s Previews | Andrew Teale | Substack

"All the right votes, but not necessarily in the right order". Click to read Andrew’s Previews, by Andrew Teale, a Substack publication with thousands of subscribers.

andrewteale.me.uk

1 5 12

Britain Elects @britainelects.com · 20d

❗ Reform GAIN from Labour

Yesterday's Trowbridge (Cardiff) council by-election result:

REF: 39.6% (+39.6)
LDEM: 23.6% (+15.7)
LAB: 21.3% (-32.6)
PC: 7.7% (-5.1)
CON: 3.1% (-15.3)
GRN: 2.3% (+2.3)
PROP: 2.2% (-4.7)

+/- 2022

andrewteale.me.uk/previews

Andrew’s Previews | Andrew Teale | Substack

"All the right votes, but not necessarily in the right order". Click to read Andrew’s Previews, by Andrew Teale, a Substack publication with thousands of subscribers.

andrewteale.me.uk

4 6

Britain Elects @britainelects.com · 25d

Danny Kruger MP (East Wiltshire) has left the Conservative Party to join Reform UK.

9 4 7