CalculatedRisk Newsletter
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Real Estate Data and Analysis
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Discover more/Create at: @skystack.xyz
Freddie Mac House Price Index Up 0.7% Year-over-Year in December • Punta Gorda House Prices Down 20% from Recent Peak, Austin Down almost 19%
Freddie Mac House Price Index Up 0.7% Year-over-Year in December
Punta Gorda House Prices Down 20% from Recent Peak, Austin Down almost 19%
calculatedrisk.substack.com
January 30, 2026 at 6:52 PM
Freddie Mac House Price Index Up 0.7% Year-over-Year in December • Punta Gorda House Prices Down 20% from Recent Peak, Austin Down almost 19%
Fannie and Freddie: Single Family Delinquency Rate Increased in December • Fannie Mae Multi-Family Delinquency Rate Near Housing Bust High
Fannie and Freddie: Single Family Delinquency Rate Increased in December
Fannie Mae Multi-Family Delinquency Rate Near Housing Bust High
calculatedrisk.substack.com
January 29, 2026 at 3:51 PM
Fannie and Freddie: Single Family Delinquency Rate Increased in December • Fannie Mae Multi-Family Delinquency Rate Near Housing Bust High
Inflation Adjusted House Prices 2.4% Below 2022 Peak • Price-to-rent index is 9.6% below 2022 peak
Inflation Adjusted House Prices 2.4% Below 2022 Peak
Price-to-rent index is 9.6% below 2022 peak
calculatedrisk.substack.com
January 28, 2026 at 3:52 PM
Inflation Adjusted House Prices 2.4% Below 2022 Peak • Price-to-rent index is 9.6% below 2022 peak
Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 1.4% year-over-year in November • FHFA House Prices up 1.9% YoY in November
Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 1.4% year-over-year in November
FHFA House Prices up 1.9% YoY in November
calculatedrisk.substack.com
January 27, 2026 at 3:52 PM
Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 1.4% year-over-year in November • FHFA House Prices up 1.9% YoY in November
4th Look at Local Housing Markets in December • Altos: Active single-family inventory was up 0.3% week-over-week
4th Look at Local Housing Markets in December
Altos: Active single-family inventory was up 0.3% week-over-week
calculatedrisk.substack.com
January 26, 2026 at 6:52 PM
4th Look at Local Housing Markets in December • Altos: Active single-family inventory was up 0.3% week-over-week
NMHC on Apartments: "Lower rent growth and higher vacancies" in Q4 • Leading indicator for Rents and Apartment Vacancies Negative in Q4
NMHC on Apartments: "Lower rent growth and higher vacancies" in Q4
Leading indicator for Rents and Apartment Vacancies Negative in Q4
calculatedrisk.substack.com
January 22, 2026 at 9:52 PM
NMHC on Apartments: "Lower rent growth and higher vacancies" in Q4 • Leading indicator for Rents and Apartment Vacancies Negative in Q4
"Architecture firm billings remain soft to end the year" • Construction Spending Down 1.0% Year-over-year
"Architecture firm billings remain soft to end the year"
Construction Spending Down 1.0% Year-over-year
calculatedrisk.substack.com
January 22, 2026 at 6:52 PM
"Architecture firm billings remain soft to end the year" • Construction Spending Down 1.0% Year-over-year
Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-January 2026
Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-January 2026
calculatedrisk.substack.com
January 21, 2026 at 3:52 PM
Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-January 2026
Lawler: Median Existing Home Sales Prices: Oops, They Did It Again
Lawler: Median Existing Home Sales Prices: Oops, They Did It Again
calculatedrisk.substack.com
January 15, 2026 at 12:53 AM
Lawler: Median Existing Home Sales Prices: Oops, They Did It Again
NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 4.35 million SAAR in December; Lowest Annual Sales since 1995 • Median House Prices Increased 0.4% Year-over-Year
NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 4.35 million SAAR in December; Lowest Annual Sales since 1995
Median House Prices Increased 0.4% Year-over-Year
calculatedrisk.substack.com
January 14, 2026 at 6:53 PM
NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 4.35 million SAAR in December; Lowest Annual Sales since 1995 • Median House Prices Increased 0.4% Year-over-Year
Lawler: Some Comments About Upcoming GSE MBS Purchases and an Update on Mortgage/MBS Yields and Spreads
Lawler: Some Comments About Upcoming GSE MBS Purchases and an Update on Mortgage/MBS Yields and Spreads
calculatedrisk.substack.com
January 13, 2026 at 9:52 PM
Lawler: Some Comments About Upcoming GSE MBS Purchases and an Update on Mortgage/MBS Yields and Spreads
New Home Sales at 737,000 Annual Rate in October • Median New Home Price is Down 15% from the Peak due to Change in Mix
New Home Sales at 737,000 Annual Rate in October
Median New Home Price is Down 15% from the Peak due to Change in Mix
calculatedrisk.substack.com
January 13, 2026 at 6:52 PM
New Home Sales at 737,000 Annual Rate in October • Median New Home Price is Down 15% from the Peak due to Change in Mix
2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in December
2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in December
calculatedrisk.substack.com
January 12, 2026 at 9:52 PM
2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in December
The "Home ATM" Mostly Closed in Q3 • Total Mortgage Equity Withdrawal (MEW) was Slightly Positive in Q3
The "Home ATM" Mostly Closed in Q3
Total Mortgage Equity Withdrawal (MEW) was Slightly Positive in Q3
calculatedrisk.substack.com
January 9, 2026 at 9:52 PM
The "Home ATM" Mostly Closed in Q3 • Total Mortgage Equity Withdrawal (MEW) was Slightly Positive in Q3
Housing Starts Decreased to 1.246 million Annual Rate in October
Housing Starts Decreased to 1.246 million Annual Rate in October
calculatedrisk.substack.com
January 9, 2026 at 3:52 PM
Housing Starts Decreased to 1.246 million Annual Rate in October
1st Look at Local Housing Markets in December
1st Look at Local Housing Markets in December
calculatedrisk.substack.com
January 7, 2026 at 6:52 PM
1st Look at Local Housing Markets in December
Asking Rents Decline Year-over-year
Asking Rents Decline Year-over-year
calculatedrisk.substack.com
January 6, 2026 at 3:52 PM
Asking Rents Decline Year-over-year
Update: The Housing Bubble and Mortgage Debt as a Percent of GDP
Update: The Housing Bubble and Mortgage Debt as a Percent of GDP
calculatedrisk.substack.com
January 5, 2026 at 9:53 PM
Update: The Housing Bubble and Mortgage Debt as a Percent of GDP
Inflation Adjusted House Prices 2.7% Below 2022 Peak • Price-to-rent index is 9.9% below 2022 peak
Inflation Adjusted House Prices 2.7% Below 2022 Peak
Price-to-rent index is 9.9% below 2022 peak
calculatedrisk.substack.com
January 2, 2026 at 6:53 PM
Inflation Adjusted House Prices 2.7% Below 2022 Peak • Price-to-rent index is 9.9% below 2022 peak
Freddie Mac House Price Index Up 1.0% Year-over-Year in November • Punta Gorda House Prices Down 21% from Recent Peak, Austin Down over 17%
Freddie Mac House Price Index Up 1.0% Year-over-Year in November
Punta Gorda House Prices Down 21% from Recent Peak, Austin Down over 17%
calculatedrisk.substack.com
December 31, 2025 at 3:51 PM
Freddie Mac House Price Index Up 1.0% Year-over-Year in November • Punta Gorda House Prices Down 21% from Recent Peak, Austin Down over 17%
FHFA’s Q3 National Mortgage Database: Outstanding Mortgage Rates, LTV and Credit Scores
FHFA’s Q3 National Mortgage Database: Outstanding Mortgage Rates, LTV and Credit Scores
calculatedrisk.substack.com
December 30, 2025 at 9:52 PM
FHFA’s Q3 National Mortgage Database: Outstanding Mortgage Rates, LTV and Credit Scores
Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 1.4% year-over-year in October • FHFA House Prices up 1.7% YoY in October
Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 1.4% year-over-year in October
FHFA House Prices up 1.7% YoY in October
calculatedrisk.substack.com
December 30, 2025 at 3:51 PM
Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 1.4% year-over-year in October • FHFA House Prices up 1.7% YoY in October
Fannie Mae Multi-Family Delinquency Rate Almost to Housing Bust High • Fannie and Freddie: Single Family Delinquency Rate Increased in November
Fannie Mae Multi-Family Delinquency Rate Almost to Housing Bust High
Fannie and Freddie: Single Family Delinquency Rate Increased in November
calculatedrisk.substack.com
December 26, 2025 at 6:51 PM
Fannie Mae Multi-Family Delinquency Rate Almost to Housing Bust High • Fannie and Freddie: Single Family Delinquency Rate Increased in November
Question #8 for 2026: How much will Residential investment change in 2026? How about housing starts and new home sales in 2026?
Question #8 for 2026: How much will Residential investment change in 2026? How about housing starts and new home sales in 2026?
calculatedrisk.substack.com
December 26, 2025 at 3:53 PM
Question #8 for 2026: How much will Residential investment change in 2026? How about housing starts and new home sales in 2026?
Question #9 for 2026: What will happen with house prices in 2026?
Question #9 for 2026: What will happen with house prices in 2026?
calculatedrisk.substack.com
December 24, 2025 at 6:52 PM
Question #9 for 2026: What will happen with house prices in 2026?