Chris Prosser
@caprosser.com
Political scientist | Co-director British Election Study | Election number crunching for ITV | Trustee McDougall Trust
caprosser.com
caprosser.com
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Chris Prosser
@caprosser.com
· Jan 15
I spent last week p̶r̶o̶c̶r̶a̶s̶t̶i̶n̶a̶t̶i̶n̶g building myself a new website via blogdown/hugo.
Pretty pleased with the result, so check it out: caprosser.com
Pretty pleased with the result, so check it out: caprosser.com
Adversarial Poetry sounds like a great research genre.
Would definitely read studies of the effect of adversarial poetry on political persuasion, adversarial poetry and affective polarisation, adversarial poetry and misinformation.
So many possibilities 😆
Would definitely read studies of the effect of adversarial poetry on political persuasion, adversarial poetry and affective polarisation, adversarial poetry and misinformation.
So many possibilities 😆
Looks like LLMs are *very* vulnerable to attack via poetic allusion: "curated poetic prompts yielded high attack-success rates (ASR), with some providers exceeding 90% ..."
https://arxiv.org/html/2511.15304v1
https://arxiv.org/html/2511.15304v1
November 21, 2025 at 9:18 AM
Adversarial Poetry sounds like a great research genre.
Would definitely read studies of the effect of adversarial poetry on political persuasion, adversarial poetry and affective polarisation, adversarial poetry and misinformation.
So many possibilities 😆
Would definitely read studies of the effect of adversarial poetry on political persuasion, adversarial poetry and affective polarisation, adversarial poetry and misinformation.
So many possibilities 😆
Not at all relevant to the actual discussion about this, but I remember being really impressed by the Boix paper when I read it as a grad student, whereas now every time I see it I can't get past the fact that in the 1990s you could get an N=22 OLS into the APSR.
I think the conventional wisdom that switching to PR, even explicitly to block Reform, would delegitimise the system is completely wrong. You would get buy-in from every other party, bar maybe the Tories, and it's historically the main reason electoral reform happens. www.jstor.org/stable/2585577
November 17, 2025 at 1:04 PM
Not at all relevant to the actual discussion about this, but I remember being really impressed by the Boix paper when I read it as a grad student, whereas now every time I see it I can't get past the fact that in the 1990s you could get an N=22 OLS into the APSR.
Well with this news I'm almost certainly never going to get round to doing a proper version of the 'there's no relationship between change in crime and PCC voting' paper that's been on the back burner for nine years...
Police and crime commissioners to be abolished, government to announce
Police and crime commissioners to be abolished, government to announce
System introduced in 2012 across England and Wales has faced criticism from police chiefs
*
UK politics live – latest updates
The controversial system of police and crime commissioners is to be abolished by the government, the Guardian has learned.
Under the system, introduced under the Conservatives, all 43 police forces covering local areas across England and Wales had to answer to an elected official. Continue reading...
www.theguardian.com
November 13, 2025 at 12:15 PM
Well with this news I'm almost certainly never going to get round to doing a proper version of the 'there's no relationship between change in crime and PCC voting' paper that's been on the back burner for nine years...
Currently in the early stages of a global 'please remove me from this mailing list' reply-all catastrophe 😱
November 13, 2025 at 8:46 AM
Currently in the early stages of a global 'please remove me from this mailing list' reply-all catastrophe 😱
I mention the Hall, Ariss and Todorov study of basketball betting (more information -> worse performance) in the slides for one of my pol psych lectures, and now the powerpoint designer wants to illustrate the slide with some basketballs, which certainly creates an interesting juxtaposition... 😂
November 6, 2025 at 10:15 AM
I mention the Hall, Ariss and Todorov study of basketball betting (more information -> worse performance) in the slides for one of my pol psych lectures, and now the powerpoint designer wants to illustrate the slide with some basketballs, which certainly creates an interesting juxtaposition... 😂
I fell down a typographical rabbit hole last week and made my own R Markdown template. Quite pleased with how it looks, so take a look, and if you like it too, feel free to use it!
Package here: github.com/drcaprosser/...
Full explanation/example here: github.com/drcaprosser/...
Package here: github.com/drcaprosser/...
Full explanation/example here: github.com/drcaprosser/...
November 4, 2025 at 10:35 AM
I fell down a typographical rabbit hole last week and made my own R Markdown template. Quite pleased with how it looks, so take a look, and if you like it too, feel free to use it!
Package here: github.com/drcaprosser/...
Full explanation/example here: github.com/drcaprosser/...
Package here: github.com/drcaprosser/...
Full explanation/example here: github.com/drcaprosser/...
Nothing says 'boost productivity' like policies designed to make people more tired and hungover.
www.theguardian.com/business/202...
www.theguardian.com/business/202...
Pubs to stay open until early hours in push for UK growth
Exclusive: Plans for England and Wales would help the ailing hospitality sector but have attracted criticism from health experts
www.theguardian.com
October 9, 2025 at 7:02 AM
Nothing says 'boost productivity' like policies designed to make people more tired and hungover.
www.theguardian.com/business/202...
www.theguardian.com/business/202...
This is great - had always wondered if the telephone call thing was *actually* how they found out they'd won.
In the unlikely event that I won a Nobel prize I'd probably see an unknown international number, assume it was scam, and block it.
In the unlikely event that I won a Nobel prize I'd probably see an unknown international number, assume it was scam, and block it.
October 7, 2025 at 11:35 AM
This is great - had always wondered if the telephone call thing was *actually* how they found out they'd won.
In the unlikely event that I won a Nobel prize I'd probably see an unknown international number, assume it was scam, and block it.
In the unlikely event that I won a Nobel prize I'd probably see an unknown international number, assume it was scam, and block it.
Judging by the number of review request I've had lately, I see you all had a more productive summer than I did 😐
October 7, 2025 at 9:18 AM
Judging by the number of review request I've had lately, I see you all had a more productive summer than I did 😐
A conclusion reached by a well justified causal research design no doubt, and not just seeing there's a correlation and asserting the causality runs in one direction... 🤔
October 7, 2025 at 6:30 AM
A conclusion reached by a well justified causal research design no doubt, and not just seeing there's a correlation and asserting the causality runs in one direction... 🤔
Reposted by Chris Prosser
🚨Hiring a fully funded (3.5 years) PhD for the @ldnsocmedobs.bsky.social to research social media and politics. Candidates should have quantitative/computational skills and/or be interested in content curation/moderation. UK home candidates only unfortunately. www.royalholloway.ac.uk/media/hquftp...
www.royalholloway.ac.uk
September 29, 2025 at 5:21 PM
🚨Hiring a fully funded (3.5 years) PhD for the @ldnsocmedobs.bsky.social to research social media and politics. Candidates should have quantitative/computational skills and/or be interested in content curation/moderation. UK home candidates only unfortunately. www.royalholloway.ac.uk/media/hquftp...
Just spotted this excellently ironic typo in the acknowledgements of a paper I was reading 😂
September 23, 2025 at 9:30 AM
Just spotted this excellently ironic typo in the acknowledgements of a paper I was reading 😂
I made a little R package to handle the faff of assigning party names to party colours when making plots about British elections in ggplot.
I made it for myself, but if you're someone that also works on British politics and uses R, you might also find it useful!
github.com/drcaprosser/...
I made it for myself, but if you're someone that also works on British politics and uses R, you might also find it useful!
github.com/drcaprosser/...
GitHub - drcaprosser/gbpartyscales: Map common party-name synonyms to canonical Great Britain parties and provide ggplot2 colour, fill, shape, and linetype scales with standard labels and sensible leg...
Map common party-name synonyms to canonical Great Britain parties and provide ggplot2 colour, fill, shape, and linetype scales with standard labels and sensible legend orderings. Includes a helper ...
github.com
September 16, 2025 at 11:37 AM
I made a little R package to handle the faff of assigning party names to party colours when making plots about British elections in ggplot.
I made it for myself, but if you're someone that also works on British politics and uses R, you might also find it useful!
github.com/drcaprosser/...
I made it for myself, but if you're someone that also works on British politics and uses R, you might also find it useful!
github.com/drcaprosser/...
Today in 'I'm sure this is a well identified causal effect and definitely not in any way a spurious correlation, can't think of any potential confounding variables at all' 🤔
September 11, 2025 at 10:11 AM
Today in 'I'm sure this is a well identified causal effect and definitely not in any way a spurious correlation, can't think of any potential confounding variables at all' 🤔
The year is 3025.
No one could remember what REF was, but the science minster and university leaders gathered for the annual ritual of deferring it.
'Maybe we'll actually do it next year', whispered a newly appointed vice chancellor to their neighbour.
'Don't be daft', replied the old hand.
No one could remember what REF was, but the science minster and university leaders gathered for the annual ritual of deferring it.
'Maybe we'll actually do it next year', whispered a newly appointed vice chancellor to their neighbour.
'Don't be daft', replied the old hand.
Science minister Patrick Vallance has announced the next Research Excellence Framework will be paused for three months to review whether its allocation of £2 billion annually in block research funding will support the government’s economic and social missions. @jgro-the.bsky.social reports
#REF
#REF
Patrick Vallance hits pause on Research Excellence Framework
Science minister announces review of controversial changes to research environment assessment
www.timeshighereducation.com
September 4, 2025 at 9:35 AM
The year is 3025.
No one could remember what REF was, but the science minster and university leaders gathered for the annual ritual of deferring it.
'Maybe we'll actually do it next year', whispered a newly appointed vice chancellor to their neighbour.
'Don't be daft', replied the old hand.
No one could remember what REF was, but the science minster and university leaders gathered for the annual ritual of deferring it.
'Maybe we'll actually do it next year', whispered a newly appointed vice chancellor to their neighbour.
'Don't be daft', replied the old hand.
Reposted by Chris Prosser
🚨NEW DATA 🚨
The BES team are pleased to announce the release of the 2024 Random Probability Survey Release v1.0.0
You can download the data here: www.britishelectionstudy.com/data-object/...
You can find our release note here:
www.britishelectionstudy.com/uncategorize...
The BES team are pleased to announce the release of the 2024 Random Probability Survey Release v1.0.0
You can download the data here: www.britishelectionstudy.com/data-object/...
You can find our release note here:
www.britishelectionstudy.com/uncategorize...
BES 2024 Random Probability Survey Release Note v1.0.0 - The British Election Study
www.britishelectionstudy.com
September 1, 2025 at 9:16 AM
🚨NEW DATA 🚨
The BES team are pleased to announce the release of the 2024 Random Probability Survey Release v1.0.0
You can download the data here: www.britishelectionstudy.com/data-object/...
You can find our release note here:
www.britishelectionstudy.com/uncategorize...
The BES team are pleased to announce the release of the 2024 Random Probability Survey Release v1.0.0
You can download the data here: www.britishelectionstudy.com/data-object/...
You can find our release note here:
www.britishelectionstudy.com/uncategorize...
I'm taking over our PhD professional development seminar this year, which covers everything from 'so how do you actually do this PhD thing', to applying for jobs, via writing, ethics, inter alia.
If anyone has run similar things elsewhere, I'd love to see what you cover - please drop me a line!
If anyone has run similar things elsewhere, I'd love to see what you cover - please drop me a line!
August 27, 2025 at 9:29 AM
I'm taking over our PhD professional development seminar this year, which covers everything from 'so how do you actually do this PhD thing', to applying for jobs, via writing, ethics, inter alia.
If anyone has run similar things elsewhere, I'd love to see what you cover - please drop me a line!
If anyone has run similar things elsewhere, I'd love to see what you cover - please drop me a line!
I feel like Shetland would be an excellent location for an institute of quantitative social science 🥵
Some places could reach heatwave criteria over the coming few days 🥵
Here are your forecast highs for this weekend 👇
Here are your forecast highs for this weekend 👇
June 26, 2025 at 2:15 PM
I feel like Shetland would be an excellent location for an institute of quantitative social science 🥵
It'd be great if there was a research fellowship scheme where instead of proposing a single project, you could just say 'look I've got about a dozen papers at various stages of completion and if I had some time I'd probably finally manage to submit some of them'.
June 25, 2025 at 1:20 PM
It'd be great if there was a research fellowship scheme where instead of proposing a single project, you could just say 'look I've got about a dozen papers at various stages of completion and if I had some time I'd probably finally manage to submit some of them'.
'What do you mean there's no solution to the fundamental problem of causal inference?!? You're trying to tell me that all of this' [gestures frantically at the edifice of modern social science] 'rests on a series of untestable *assumptions*!?!'
www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
Be ready to be shocked and offended at university, students told
Guidance has been published by the Office for Students on new free speech rules coming into force this year.
www.bbc.co.uk
June 19, 2025 at 8:42 AM
'What do you mean there's no solution to the fundamental problem of causal inference?!? You're trying to tell me that all of this' [gestures frantically at the edifice of modern social science] 'rests on a series of untestable *assumptions*!?!'
www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
You'd think something like election results would be an commonly agreed fact, but whenever I use historical data I always end up going down some rabbit hole because different sources say (sometimes very) different things.
Currently being driven mad by mid 20th century Australian elections... 🤯
Currently being driven mad by mid 20th century Australian elections... 🤯
May 29, 2025 at 12:48 PM
You'd think something like election results would be an commonly agreed fact, but whenever I use historical data I always end up going down some rabbit hole because different sources say (sometimes very) different things.
Currently being driven mad by mid 20th century Australian elections... 🤯
Currently being driven mad by mid 20th century Australian elections... 🤯
Anyone know about rules governing how old you need to be to join a political party in the UK? Labour says 14 on their website but can't find anything for the other parties.
May 21, 2025 at 8:24 AM
Anyone know about rules governing how old you need to be to join a political party in the UK? Labour says 14 on their website but can't find anything for the other parties.
Anyone know of an accessible dataset of Australian Federal election results from 1946 onwards?
Existing comparative sources seem to have some issues, e.g. v-party doesn't always have all the parties that make up the coalition, parlgov seems to have some rounding issues.
Existing comparative sources seem to have some issues, e.g. v-party doesn't always have all the parties that make up the coalition, parlgov seems to have some rounding issues.
May 19, 2025 at 3:44 PM
Anyone know of an accessible dataset of Australian Federal election results from 1946 onwards?
Existing comparative sources seem to have some issues, e.g. v-party doesn't always have all the parties that make up the coalition, parlgov seems to have some rounding issues.
Existing comparative sources seem to have some issues, e.g. v-party doesn't always have all the parties that make up the coalition, parlgov seems to have some rounding issues.