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Centre for Economic Policy Research
@cepr.org
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CEPR, established in 1983, is an independent, non‐partisan, pan‐European non‐profit organization. Its mission is to enhance the quality of policy decisions through providing policy‐relevant research, based soundly in economic theory.
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Centre for Economic Policy Research @cepr.org · Dec 14
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Reposted by Centre for Economic Policy Research
kiel.institute
From keynotes and the Harms Prize ceremony to policy panels and cutting-edge research presentations—the Kiel–CEPR Geoeconomics Conference brought together an exceptional community in Paris.
🎥 All recordings are now available to watch on our YouTube 👉 youtube.com/playlist?lis...
November 25, 2025 at 2:21 PM
cepr.org
📢 #CallForPapers - 4th CEPR Workshop on Media, Technology, Politics, and Society
In-person at EIEF in Rome on 25-26 June.
Deadline: 31 January 2026
cepr.org/events/4th-c...
@rafaeljjd.bsky.social @alexeymakarin.bsky.social @andreaprat.bsky.social @fsobbrio.bsky.social
#EconSky
November 25, 2025 at 10:55 AM
Reposted by Centre for Economic Policy Research
voxeu.org
Maarten Bosker, Else-Marie van den Herik, Paul Pelzl, & Steven Poelhekke study Indonesia's 2014 ban on nickel and bauxite exports and show that export bans must be accompanied by a swift increase in domestic processing capacity to be effective.
cepr.org/voxeu/column...
#EconSky
Graph of active Indonesian export restrictions on industrial raw materials by reason from 2009 to 2023. ‘Promote downstream industry’ denotes an active export-restricted industrial raw material that lists as a reason at least one of ‘Promote further processing / value added’ and ‘Protect local downstream industry’. Besides ‘Other’, reasons could include ‘Control of illegal mining activity’, ‘Product is strategic for the economy’, ‘Generate revenue’, and ‘Control of foreign exchange’. Export restrictions on industrial raw materials are increasingly used by developing economies to climb value chains. This column explores whether Indonesia’s 2014 ban on nickel and bauxite exports, which aimed to spur domestic processing and job creation, succeeded in promoting local economic development. Nickel districts saw a sustained rise in employment, especially in manufacturing and service, while bauxite districts faced employment losses. Export bans must be accompanied by a swift increase in domestic processing capacity, and policymakers must carefully consider commodity-specific factors.
November 25, 2025 at 8:45 AM
Reposted by Centre for Economic Policy Research
voxeu.org
Jon Danielsson (LSE) argues that while AI enhances the financial system's efficiency, it also poses new, poorly understood risks. Supervisory authorities must develop their own AI capabilities to keep pace.
cepr.org/voxeu/column...
#EconSky
Artificial intelligence is transforming finance faster than the authorities can adapt. This column argues that while AI enhances the financial system’s efficiency, it also poses new, poorly understood risks. To stay relevant, the supervisory authorities must develop their own AI capabilities, use federated learning for cross-jurisdiction models, and design intervention facilities that can respond at machine speed. If they cannot keep pace, the consequences will be ineffective supervision and a higher risk of financial crisis.
November 25, 2025 at 8:43 AM
cepr.org
CEPR Discussion Papers Week Ending 23/11/2025 -

mailchi.mp/cepr/cepr-di...
CEPR Discussion Papers Week Ending 23/11/2025 - https://mailchi.mp/cepr/cepr-discussion-papers-week-ending-13568871
November 24, 2025 at 3:54 PM
Reposted by Centre for Economic Policy Research
voxeu.org
Maarten Verwey, Christos Axioglou, & Gábor Márk Pellényi (@ec.europa.eu) review the EU Commission's Autumn 2025 Forecast and argue that while trade policy uncertainty has decreased, the war in Ukraine and persistent geopolitical tensions cloud the outlook.
cepr.org/voxeu/column...
#EconSky
Graph of real GDP growth in member states between 2019-2024. Countries are ordered by proximity to the war, based on their average distance to Kyiv and Moscow. The EU economy grew stronger than expected in recent quarters and all member states are set to return to growth in 2025. Modest but steady economic growth is expected to continue in 2026 and 2027, supported by a robust labour market, decreasing inflation and improving financing conditions. Although the conclusion of the EU-US trade deal in the summer reduced trade policy uncertainty, weaker global growth and persistent geopolitical tensions cloud the outlook. As this column argues, the proximity to Russia’s protracted war of aggression against Ukraine has been weighing on the economic performance of the EU, especially in member states closest to the conflict, while necessitating a unified strengthening of EU defence capabilities and financial support to Ukraine.
November 24, 2025 at 2:52 PM
Reposted by Centre for Economic Policy Research
voxeu.org
Alan Auerbach & William Gale argue that after incorporating the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, debt-to-GDP is projected to rise to 183% by 2054, under conservative assumptions. Without a return to fiscal responsibility, adjustment will likely involve an external shock.
cepr.org/voxeu/column...
#EconSky
Graph of US publicly held debt as a percent of GDP. There is now widespread concern that the US faces an unsustainable fiscal future under current policies. The rise in the debt-to-GDP ratio since 2001 can be explained by responses to the Global Crisis and Covid-19 pandemic, as well as tax cuts and discretionary spending increases. This column argues that after incorporating the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, debt-to-GDP is projected to rise to 183% by 2054, under conservative assumptions. Without a return to an earlier period of fiscal responsibility, adjustment in US fiscal policy will likely involve some external shock that forces changes in policy.
November 24, 2025 at 10:27 AM
Reposted by Centre for Economic Policy Research
voxeu.org
Financial fragmentation can undermine European bond market stability by amplifying the sensitivity of both sovereign and corporate credit markets to global risk shocks.
Benjamin Mosk & Nander de Vette
cepr.org/voxeu/column...
#EconSky
Source: Bloomberg L.P., authors’ calculations. Note: weekly data, Aug. 2007-Aug. 2024, reflecting Bloomberg’s illiquidity indices. As European governments scale up investment, bond market stability is more critical than ever. This column shows that financial fragmentation can undermine that stability by amplifying the sensitivity of both sovereign and corporate credit markets to global risk shocks. Crucially, this vulnerability affects jurisdictions across the euro area.
November 24, 2025 at 10:23 AM
Reposted by Centre for Economic Policy Research
voxeu.org
AI fundamentally alters the balance between formal credentials and verified experience in labour markets. @eduardoyeyati.bsky.social‬ reviews employment record systems from 8 countries to establish design principles and draw lessons from implementation failures.
cepr.org/voxeu/column...
#EconSky
The rise of AI fundamentally alters the balance between formal credentials and verified experience in labour markets, but without verified employment records, experience remains invisible. This column reviews employment record systems across eight advanced and emerging economies, as well as EU-level initiatives, to establish design principles and draw lessons from implementation failures. The analysis reveals that technical infrastructure alone does not guarantee success. Effective systems require aligned incentives, continuous stakeholder engagement, and careful sequencing.
November 24, 2025 at 10:16 AM
Reposted by Centre for Economic Policy Research
voxeu.org
Households can face serious financial consequences from a spouse's illness or death even in a comprehensive welfare state like Sweden. Renters and low-wealth households are hit the hardest.
@kmajlesi.bsky.social @elinmolin.bsky.social @pauroth.bsky.social
cepr.org/voxeu/column...
#EconSky
This figure presents estimates of the effect of a fatal health shock on adult children, by the homeownership status and income loss of the surviving parent. Panels A–D correspond to children of renters or homeowners, further distinguished by whether the deceased parent was the primary earner (smaller income loss) or the secondary earner (larger income loss). Effects on debt collection, social benefits, and labour income are estimated with 95% confidence intervals using the Callaway–Sant’Anna (2021) difference-in-differences method, controlling for 10-year age bins of the children. The reported coefficients are expressed as percentage impacts relative to the mean outcome one year prior to the event. Standard errors are clustered at the parent level. While many advanced economies shield their citizens from the most severe direct medical costs of illness, less is known about how households cope with income losses from a serious health event. This column shows that the financial consequences of a spouse’s illness or death can be severe, even in a comprehensive welfare state like Sweden. Defaults on unpaid debts, bills, and other financial commitments rise sharply after such shocks, with renters and low-wealth households hit the hardest. Both income and wealth access need to be considered to strengthen households’ financial resilience.
November 24, 2025 at 10:10 AM
cepr.org
The CEPR Virtual Industrial Organisation Seminar #VIOS Series continues on 26 November at 15:00 CET featuring Jiekai Zhang presenting: 'Environmental Impacts of Banning Vehicle Advertising'
Discussant: Charles Murry
More info and register: cepr.org/events/event...
#EconSky
November 21, 2025 at 2:35 PM
Reposted by Centre for Economic Policy Research
cepr.org
📢 #CallForPapers - International Seminar on Trade (ISoT) Second Edition
The Journal of International Economics, University of Geneva, World Bank, & CEPR invite submissions for the 2nd edition of the International Seminar on Trade.
Deadline: 11 January 2026
cepr.org/events/inter...
#EconSky
October 21, 2025 at 12:45 PM
cepr.org
📢 #CallForPapers - Women in Economic Theory Conference
May 15-16, 2026 @ LSE
Interested researchers are invited to submit papers for the conference, with a preference for completed papers.
Deadline: 14 December 2025
cepr.org/events/women...
#EconSky
Organisers: Mariagiovanna Baccara, Gilat Levy, Paula Onuchic, Anna Sanktjohanser
November 21, 2025 at 1:30 PM
Reposted by Centre for Economic Policy Research
voxeu.org
Adam Wolfe discusses how higher and broader US #tariffs on Chinese imports resulted in increased tariff avoidance and an underestimation of US imports from #China, which played a significant role in narrowing the US-China trade data gap.
cepr.org/voxeu/column...
#EconSky
US imports and Chinese exports by US Section 301 tariff regime Until 2018, the US-China trade data gap was in line with the discrepancies found in the bilateral trade data of China and its other partners, but in 2018 the gap began to narrow. This column argues that higher and broader US tariffs on Chinese imports resulted in increased tariff avoidance and an underestimation of US imports from China, which played a significant role in narrowing the US-China trade data gap. Changes in China’s VAT regime may have also played a role.
November 21, 2025 at 9:13 AM
Reposted by Centre for Economic Policy Research
voxeu.org
Paul Twomey, Vicente Arias González, & Dennis Snower argue that while the European Commission's Digital Omnibus package responds to the increasingly complex regulatory landscape, it treats the symptoms rather than the structural cause of market failure.
cepr.org/voxeu/column...
#EconSky
Over the last decade, the EU has pioneered a world-leading framework for digital governance, but the result has been an increasingly complex regulatory landscape and a digital governance system that undermines the workings of economic markets. This column argues that while the European Commission’s Digital Omnibus package responds to this complexity, it treats the symptoms rather than the structural cause of market failure. The authors propose an ‘Innovation in the Digital Economy Architecture’ (IDEA) framework that meets the simplification aims of the Digital Omnibus proposal, while giving digital consumers more control over their personal data, strengthening digital rights, creating transparent data markets that reward trust, and promoting competition and innovation.
November 21, 2025 at 9:08 AM
Reposted by Centre for Economic Policy Research
voxeu.org
D Blanchet & G Cette argue a change in the average retirement age has an impact both on pension funding and resources available for other public spending. This implies penalties for earlier retirement that are higher than those designed to balance the system alone.
cepr.org/voxeu/column...
#EconSky
The design of pension rules must take into account, through an actuarial neutrality approach, the adjustments to pension levels that are necessary in the case of flexible retirement ages. This column argues that a change in the average retirement age has an impact not only on pension funding, but also on resources available for other public spending. All else equal, incorporating this externality would imply penalties for earlier retirement and bonuses for later retirement that are much higher than those designed to balance the pension system alone.
November 21, 2025 at 9:04 AM
cepr.org
✍️Register now for the First Workshop on Global Firms, to be held at the IMT School for Advanced Studies in Lucca, Italy on December 18-19, 2025.
Keynote speakers: Peter Egger (ETH Zurich & CEPR) & Daria Taglioni (World Bank)
Full programme & registration details: cepr.org/events/globa...
#EconSky
November 20, 2025 at 3:43 PM
cepr.org
📢 #CallForPapers 7th Workshop on the Economics and Politics of Migration
CEPR @ebrd.bsky.social King's College London & Sapienza University are co-organising a workshop on 28-29 May 2026 in Rome
Submit by 23 January
cepr.org/events/7th-w...
@micheledimaio.bsky.social @plvezina.bsky.social #EconSky
November 20, 2025 at 3:17 PM
Reposted by Centre for Economic Policy Research
bruegel.org
🪴 Bruegel at COP30 Brazil
🗓️ 20 November 2025 17:00-18:00 (CET)

Join us at COP30 with @jzettelmeyer.bsky.social, Alissa M. Kleinnijenhuis, @tagliapietra.bsky.social, Ottmar Edenhofer, @cwolfram.bsky.social, @estellecantillon.bsky.social, @simonmundy.ft.com and Juliano Assunção

🔗 buff.ly/kseprVU
November 19, 2025 at 12:00 PM
Reposted by Centre for Economic Policy Research
voxeu.org
@paulinecarry.bsky.social & @schoefer.bsky.social show that France's 2008 introduction of separation by mutual agreement failed to improve employer-employee relations during separations and added costs to the unemployment insurance scheme.
cepr.org/voxeu/column...
#EconSky
Share of SMAs among all open-ended contract terminations between 2007 and 2022. Open-ended contract terminations include quits, economic, or personal dismissals, and SMAs. Source: Carry and Schoefer (2024). Dismissals are costly and are often subject to stringent employment protection regulations. This column explores how France’s 2008 introduction of separation by mutual agreement affected separation patterns. Despite fast and wide adoption of such agreements, they only replace a small share of dismissals and substitute more for quits rather than dismissals. Highly conflictual dismissals remain unchanged. The reform failed to improve employer–employee relations during separations and added costs to the unemployment insurance scheme.
November 20, 2025 at 9:24 AM
Reposted by Centre for Economic Policy Research
voxeu.org
R&D intensity has been a key determinant of increased equity valuations for European defence contractors rally, particularly for companies with higher dual-use revenues. Markets have rewarded military R&D with civilian applications.
M Albori, F Ferriani, L Ristuccia
cepr.org/voxeu/column...
#EconSky
The figure shows EU and US defence stocks as market ratios. Top panel: price to book ratio; Bottom panel: 12-month forward price-earnings ratios. The vertical lines denote the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the election of Donald Trump, the London summit (LS), and the NATO meeting (NM). The sharp rise in European defence spending – driven by Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, President Trump’s re-election and the weakening of US security guarantees, and ultimately by revised NATO targets – has increased equity valuations for European defence contractors. This column shows that R&D intensity has been a key determinant of this rally, particularly for companies with higher dual-use revenues. Far from being an endorsement of military spending as a driver of economic growth, the results suggest that financial markets have rewarded military R&D with civilian applications, viewing dual-use innovation as a strategic opportunity to benefit from the cycle in military spending and geopolitical uncertainty.
November 20, 2025 at 9:35 AM
Reposted by Centre for Economic Policy Research
voxeu.org
In a context of shifting US commitments, external threats, and global competition, Philipp Hildebrand, Hélène Rey, & @schularick.bsky.social outline key principles for establishing a European Future of Defence Architecture and a framework for its financing.
cepr.org/voxeu/column...
#EconSky
In a context of shifting US commitments, external threats, and global competition over trade, technology, critical minerals, talent, and intellectual property, Europe’s lack of defence capabilities leaves it vulnerable to economic and foreign policy pressure. This column outlines key principles for establishing a European Future of Defence Architecture and a framework for its financing.
November 20, 2025 at 9:37 AM
Reposted by Centre for Economic Policy Research
voxeu.org
New VoxTalks Economics episode out now: Sergei Guriev and Catherine de Vries discuss with @talknormal.co.uk why populism keeps rising — and what this means for the difficult climate and sustainability decisions governments can no longer avoid.
🎧 Listen here: cepr.org/multimedia/p...

#EconSky
Graphic promoting a VoxTalks interview with Sergei Guriev and Catherine de Vries titled ‘The planet has a problem with populism’, showing a globe wrapped in barbed wire.
November 19, 2025 at 2:10 PM
cepr.org
🎥 #COP30 @bruegel.org-CEPR "International Decarbonization through Coalitions of the Willing: Carbon Pricing, Climate Finance, Trade, and Nature"
20 Nov 13:00 Belém time
pik-potsdam.zoom.us/j/6186129707...
#EconSky
November 19, 2025 at 1:53 PM
cepr.org
📢 #CallForPapers - IMAEF Conference 2026
Organised by the Department of Economics of the University of Ioannina. June 22-24, 2026 | Syros, Greece
Abstract submission deadline: 15 Jan 2026
All areas of applied economics and finance are welcome.
More info: cepr.org/events/imaef...
#EconSky #EconConf
November 19, 2025 at 10:33 AM