This research underscores the importance of central bank communication and shows how SEP releases contribute to what markets interpret as monetary policy “surprises.” A fascinating discussion on how information effects, not just rate changes, drive market dynamics.
- Monetary policy surprises are larger at SEP meetings than non-SEP meetings. - Up to 1/2 of the variation is explained by SEP surprises, highlighting how Fed projections convey info. - Once SEP surprises are accounted for, differences in policy shocks between SEP & non-SEP meetings disappear.
The paper examines how the Federal Reserve’s Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) — released at select FOMC meetings — shapes financial market reactions. Using high-frequency data and a new SEP surprise measure from Bloomberg surveys, the authors show:
Yesterday, our H.O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting hosted Andrew B. Martinez (American University) and CER member Tara Sinclair (George Washington University), who presented their paper “When the Fed Reveals Its Hand: The SEP and Monetary Policy Surprises.”
On Wednesday 10/8, our Macro-International research area hosted Ricardo Alves Monteiro (IMF) for a seminar. He presented exciting work on the macroeconomic implications of different types of sovereign debt auctions. ralvesmonteiro.github.io/assets/paper...
In a world of loneliness epidemics, as coined by the U.S. surgeon general, how do we make more friends? On Monday October 6th, Professor Amanda Pallais, Professor of Economics at Harvard University visited us as part of our ongoing microeconomic seminar series to discuss.
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