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Chris Whittall @chriswhittall.bsky.social · 1d

Conviction in the short USD trade dropped to the lowest level since Liberation Day - BofA research

Chris Whittall @chriswhittall.bsky.social · 1d

Some interesting thoughts from RBC BlueBay's Mark Dowding on the next Fed chair and Fed independence

Sees Bessent as the frontrunner and Trump rate-cutting pressure not as much of an issue

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Chris Whittall @chriswhittall.bsky.social · 3d

Goldman Sachs: Why we are not in a bubble... yet

"We see key differences" to previous bubbles

Eg tech appreciation driven by fundamental growth from companies with strong balance sheets

Tech valuations "are becoming stretched" but "not yet at levels consistent with historical bubbles"

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Reposted by Chris Whittall

Chris Whittall @chriswhittall.bsky.social · 5d

NEW: Zero-day contracts become dominant force in S&P 500 options market

ADV in zero-day options hit a record 2.5m contracts in September, now representing ~ 60% of all S&P 500 options volumes

www.ifre.com/topic-codes/...

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Chris Whittall @chriswhittall.bsky.social · 5d

Ellison had pledged 346m of Oracle shares (worth >$100bn) as collateral for loans as of mid-September, or 30% of his stake

That was up from 277m shares, or 24% of his stake, a year earlier

That suggests Ellison increased his borrowing capacity with his bank lenders over that time

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Chris Whittall @chriswhittall.bsky.social · 5d

Larry Ellison, like Elon Musk, is a longtime user of margin loans, using his 41% Oracle stake as a source of cash for his business dealings

That stake has become a lot more valuable over the past year as Oracle has positioned itself as a beneficiary of the AI boom and its shares have soared

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Chris Whittall @chriswhittall.bsky.social · 5d

NEW: Larry Ellison pledges 30% of his Oracle shares in loans

Regulatory filings indicate Ellison increased his use of margin loans over the past year

Comes as the tech magnate is increasingly active deploying his vast wealth to backstop corporate takeovers

www.ifre.com/topic-codes/...

Larry Ellison pledges 30% of his Oracle shares in loans | IFR

People & Markets Soaring share price ups Ellison's borrowing capacity

www.ifre.com

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Chris Whittall @chriswhittall.bsky.social · 5d

Retail is famously active in 0DTEs (representing 50-60% of volumes)

But it's also notable that institutional expansion has been even faster lately - up 70% in 2025

"0DTE flow is very systematic and balanced, we don’t only see one type of client or one type of trading strategy dominate"

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Chris Whittall @chriswhittall.bsky.social · 5d

NEW: Zero-day contracts become dominant force in S&P 500 options market

ADV in zero-day options hit a record 2.5m contracts in September, now representing ~ 60% of all S&P 500 options volumes

www.ifre.com/topic-codes/...

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Chris Whittall @chriswhittall.bsky.social · 5d

Goldman Sachs publishes a note on the curve steepener trade stalling on Friday

Politics in Japan and France over the weekend: not so fast

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Chris Whittall @chriswhittall.bsky.social · 5d

bsky.app/profile/chri...

Chris Whittall @chriswhittall.bsky.social · 5d

Makes the whole Cac40 -2%, euro off 0.6%, 30yr OAT yields 9bp higher look fairly sedate by comparison!

Chris Whittall @chriswhittall.bsky.social · 5d

Makes the whole Cac40 -2%, euro off 0.6%, 30yr OAT yields 9bp higher look fairly sedate by comparison!

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Chris Whittall @chriswhittall.bsky.social · 5d

Nikkei 225 up 5%, yen off 2%, 30yr JGB yields 15bp higher is quite a set of moves

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Chris Whittall @chriswhittall.bsky.social · 11d

Worth noting this comes amid a surge in trading volumes

It's now the $9.6trn a day FX market, up from $7.5trn in 2022

And the $7.9trn a day interest rate derivatives market

Helps that the BIS's survey took place in April during the tariff volatility

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Chris Whittall @chriswhittall.bsky.social · 11d

NEW: UK remains top FX and derivatives trading hub

Half of all interest rate derivatives trading activity in April took place in the UK, according to the BIS, up from 43% in 2022

London’s share of FX trading also held steady at 38%

www.ifre.com/topic-codes/...

UK remains top FX and derivatives trading hub | IFR

www.ifre.com

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Reposted by Chris Whittall

Chris Whittall @chriswhittall.bsky.social · 11d

NEW: The data centre investment boom is providing a fast-growing line of business for investment banks

Record amounts of debt being underwritten for these mega projects, often paired with bespoke, deal contingent derivatives hedges 👇

www.ifre.com/topic-codes/...

Data centre boom drives surge in derivatives hedging activity | IFR

People & Markets Hedging requirements spur deal contingent volumes

www.ifre.com

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Chris Whittall @chriswhittall.bsky.social · 11d

NEW: The data centre investment boom is providing a fast-growing line of business for investment banks

Record amounts of debt being underwritten for these mega projects, often paired with bespoke, deal contingent derivatives hedges 👇

www.ifre.com/topic-codes/...

Data centre boom drives surge in derivatives hedging activity | IFR

People & Markets Hedging requirements spur deal contingent volumes

www.ifre.com

1 2

Reposted by Chris Whittall

Chris Whittall @chriswhittall.bsky.social · 12d

NEW: Banks ride gold rush trading bonanza

Banks' precious metals trading revenues were up >60% to over $1bn in H1, says Coalition Greenwich

On track for their best year in over a decade

“This is the most interest and enthusiasm for gold I’ve seen in my entire career"

www.ifre.com/topic-codes/...

Banks ride gold rush trading bonanza | IFR

People & Markets “The most interest and enthusiasm for gold I’ve seen in my entire career”

www.ifre.com

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Chris Whittall @chriswhittall.bsky.social · 12d

NEW: Banks ride gold rush trading bonanza

Banks' precious metals trading revenues were up >60% to over $1bn in H1, says Coalition Greenwich

On track for their best year in over a decade

“This is the most interest and enthusiasm for gold I’ve seen in my entire career"

www.ifre.com/topic-codes/...

Banks ride gold rush trading bonanza | IFR

People & Markets “The most interest and enthusiasm for gold I’ve seen in my entire career”

www.ifre.com

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Chris Whittall @chriswhittall.bsky.social · 12d

I think it's more of a case of consolidation/mergers in a sector where many active managers are under pressure

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Chris Whittall @chriswhittall.bsky.social · 16d

"By 2029, we expect 20% fewer wealth and asset managers" - Morgan Stanley

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Reposted by Chris Whittall

Chris Whittall @chriswhittall.bsky.social · 18d

NEW: Nonbanks' trading growth stalls in $7.5trn FX market

Nonbank trading firms made $2.1bn in FX marketmaking in 2024, Coalition Greenwich estimates, ~ flat from 2021

Banks, by comparison, increased FX revenues 32% to $39.4bn

Story and 🧵on this rare trading slowdown

www.ifre.com/topic-codes/...

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Chris Whittall @chriswhittall.bsky.social · 18d

This doesn't mean nonbanks will retreat from the $2.1bn bridgehead they've established in FX

Also worth noting it's a "feature, not a bug" of the nonbank model that they're not competing in these other parts of the market

However, that may limit their market share growth from here in FX ///

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Chris Whittall @chriswhittall.bsky.social · 18d

Perhaps no coincidence nonbanks make larger inroads in markets where corporates are less prominent

eg, share of credit trading revenues up from 9% to 13% since 2021, via Coalition Greenwich; also account for 1/3 of cash equities

Rates is the other space they've struggled to take share lately

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Chris Whittall @chriswhittall.bsky.social · 18d

Banks' FX businesses have grown, though, as their corporate + institutional clients have done more hedging post-Covid

Multinationals often require bundled services (loans, transaction banking, trade finance etc) and reward their banks with FX flow

Here's a senior trader on how to make money in FX

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