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Trump in Scotland: The US President’s support in a cold climate

Christopher Carman @cjcarman.bsky.social · Jul 18

With President Donald John Trump announcing the dates for his upcoming trip to #Scotland, we at @scotvoting.bsky.social look at how popular #POTUS is in Scotland. Turns out DJT might find the Scottish summer to be a bit chilly, and that isn't just the weather!

Scottish Election Study @scotvoting.bsky.social · Jul 18

🇺🇸 New blog! 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿

@cjcarman.bsky.social takes a closer look at our data on Trump support in Scotland ahead of the US President's visit.

How popular is DJT? Are Reform UK supporters MAGA? And does the support of young men travel across the pond? Find out below!

scottishelections.ac.uk/2025/07/18/t...

The Scottish Election Study's own expert on US politics, Prof. Christopher Carman ([email protected]), takes a closer look at Donald Trump's support in Scotland using SES data.With the ...

scottishelections.ac.uk

Scottish Election Study @scotvoting.bsky.social · Jul 18

🇺🇸 New blog! 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿

@cjcarman.bsky.social takes a closer look at our data on Trump support in Scotland ahead of the US President's visit.

How popular is DJT? Are Reform UK supporters MAGA? And does the support of young men travel across the pond? Find out below!

scottishelections.ac.uk/2025/07/18/t...

Trump in Scotland: The US President’s support in a cold climate

The Scottish Election Study's own expert on US politics, Prof. Christopher Carman ([email protected]), takes a closer look at Donald Trump's support in Scotland using SES data.With the ...

scottishelections.ac.uk

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Christopher Carman @cjcarman.bsky.social · May 8

Seen the headlines in today's Scottish papers? Join
@scotvoting.bsky.social team TONIGHT 6pm @uofglasgow.bsky.social for an analysis of the the state Scottish electoral politics One Year Out from the 2026 Holyrood elections. Boyd Orr Bldg in-person and on-line
www.eventbrite.co.uk/e/one-year-o...

One Year Out: The outlook for the 2026 Holyrood election

Join us on Thursday 8 May for this Stevenson Lecture with the Scottish Election Study Team.

www.eventbrite.co.uk

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Christopher Carman @cjcarman.bsky.social · Feb 20

Looking for something to do at 17:30 Friday afternoon at the @scottishlabour.bsky.social conference? @scotvoting.bsky.social Scottish Election Study team will be holding a fringe event looking at our data on Scottish Labour Voters (past & future). W/ @ailsahenderson.bsky.social & Fraser McMillan

Scottish Election Study @scotvoting.bsky.social · Feb 13

We'll be at @scottishlabour.bsky.social conf next Friday 21st at 1730 for our Fringe with @michaeljmarra.bsky.social and @libbybrooks.bsky.social 🌹📰

@ailsahenderson.bsky.social @cjcarman.bsky.social and Fraser McMillan will discuss GE2024 findings and look ahead to 2026 - tea and shorties included!

University of Glasgow @uofglasgow.bsky.social · Feb 19

The next Stevenson Trust lecture features Professor Sir Anton Muscatelli (@uofgvc.bsky.social) and Christopher Carman (@cjcarman.bsky.social) on how rising geopolitical tensions could shape the global economy. 🌎

Taking place on 4 March and open to all.

Register now: tinyurl.com/2knys4wt

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University of Glasgow College of Social Sciences @uofgsocsci.bsky.social · Feb 14

📢Join us for the next Stevenson Trust lecture with Professor Sir Anton Muscatelli (@uofgvc.bsky.social) and Christopher Carman (@cjcarman.bsky.social).

They will explore how rising geopolitical tensions could shape the global economy over the next 2-3 years.

Register now: tinyurl.com/2knys4wt.

Stevenson Trust for Citizenship event post with the title Geopolitics and Global economic shocks: the prospects for the world economy Professor Sir Anton Muscatelli, Bute hall, Gilbert Scott Building, Tuesday 4th March 6- 7.30 pm

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Scottish Election Study @scotvoting.bsky.social · Feb 13

We'll be at @scottishlabour.bsky.social conf next Friday 21st at 1730 for our Fringe with @michaeljmarra.bsky.social and @libbybrooks.bsky.social 🌹📰

@ailsahenderson.bsky.social @cjcarman.bsky.social and Fraser McMillan will discuss GE2024 findings and look ahead to 2026 - tea and shorties included!

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Christopher Carman @cjcarman.bsky.social · Jan 28

We are very excited to be hosting this event @uofglasgow.bsky.social on 10 Feb, 6pm, recognising 25 years of achievements by the Scottish Youth Parliament @officialsyp.bsky.social

Pls join us - free & open to all members of the public, both young and not-so-young

Register here: lnkd.in/e-9aQxaV

University of Glasgow College of Social Sciences @uofgsocsci.bsky.social · Jan 13

The next Stevenson Trust Lecture takes place this Wednesday from 6- 7:30 on the US Election.

@cjcarman.bsky.social and Natasha Lindstaedt will discuss Trump's Campaign and what can be expected over the next 4 years.

Don't miss out register here: tinyurl.com/mr2rvsrp.

Poster for the January 15th Stevenson Trust lecture The US elections and what to expect in the next 4 years.

Gabriela Greilinger @gabrielagreilinger.bsky.social · Jan 24

This is an interesting study on the relationship between economic inequality and democratic erosion:
www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/...

Overall, certainly something worth pondering.

Screenshot of the first page of the paper.
Title: Income inequality and the erosion of democracy in the twenty-first century
Authors: Eli G. Rau and Susan Stokes
Significance:
In the 21st century, democracy is more often threatened by elected presidents and prime ministers than by military coup-makers. What are the causes of this rise in democratic erosion? Cross-national statistical analysis points toward one robust finding: The more unequal income distribution is in a democracy, the more at risk it is of electing a power-aggrandizing and norm-shredding head of government. Even wealthy and longstanding democracies, like the United States, are vulnerable if they are highly unequal (though national wealth might provide some resiliency). Therefore, policies that improve income equality may have the political effect of strengthening democratic systems.

Abstract:
Among the most pressing problems societies face today are economic inequality and the erosion of democratic norms and institutions. In fact the two problems—inequality and democratic erosion—are linked. In a large cross-national statistical study of risk factors for democratic erosion, we establish that economic inequality is one of the strongest predictors of where and when democracy erodes. Even wealthy and longstanding democracies are vulnerable if they are highly unequal (though national wealth might provide some resiliency). The association between inequality and risk of democratic backsliding is robust, and holds under different measures and structures of both income inequality and wealth inequality. The association is unlikely to be a case of reverse causation. For concerned citizens seeking to understand why so many democracies are eroding and how to stop this process, our study indicates that policies for ameliorating inequality are a promising path forward.

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University of Glasgow College of Social Sciences @uofgsocsci.bsky.social · Jan 15

A fascinating discussion from @cjcarman.bsky.social and Natasha Lindstaedt from tonight's Stevenson Trust lecture.

They discussed Trumps campaign and what the next four years of his presidency may mean for the US and the rest of the world

Chris Carmen and Natasha Lindstaedt speaking at the Stevenson trust lecture The US election and what to expect in the next 4 years.

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University of Glasgow College of Social Sciences @uofgsocsci.bsky.social · Jan 13

The next Stevenson Trust Lecture takes place this Wednesday from 6- 7:30 on the US Election.

@cjcarman.bsky.social and Natasha Lindstaedt will discuss Trump's Campaign and what can be expected over the next 4 years.

Don't miss out register here: tinyurl.com/mr2rvsrp.

Are there really so-called “Tartan Tories” in the Scottish electorate?

Scottish Election Study @scotvoting.bsky.social · Oct 1

New blog ‼️

Following the Scottish Conservative leadership election, we decided to crunch some numbers and take a look at the party's standing across constitutional and ideological divides 🔵📊

Keep an eye out for more on the other parties soon 👀

scottishelections.ac.uk/2024/10/01/g...

Following a bruising leadership contest, at the end of September the Scottish Conservative Party opted to elevate Russell Findlay MSP to a job described by some commentators as a “poisoned chalice” wi...

scottishelections.ac.uk

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Christopher Carman @cjcarman.bsky.social · Nov 14

has anyone told RFKJr where his soon-to-be boss prefers to dine? (and cook french fries)

The Washington Post @washingtonpost.com · Nov 14

Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s push to strip processed food out of school lunch and limit food dye marks a shift in how President-elect Donald Trump plans to regulate the nation’s food.

RFK Jr. faces battles in quest to change America’s food

Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s push to strip processed food out of school lunch and limit food dye marks a shift in how Trump is planning to regulate the nation’s food.

www.washingtonpost.com

RFK Jr. faces battles in quest to change America’s food

The Washington Post @washingtonpost.com · Nov 14

Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s push to strip processed food out of school lunch and limit food dye marks a shift in how President-elect Donald Trump plans to regulate the nation’s food.

Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s push to strip processed food out of school lunch and limit food dye marks a shift in how Trump is planning to regulate the nation’s food.

www.washingtonpost.com

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Christopher Carman @cjcarman.bsky.social · Nov 14

we know that partisanship now drives economic and social policy perceptions in the US - but this graph is striking. I just told a class that right after Trump's inauguration we'd see a shift in economic evaluations... it only took days after the election! graph frm www.nytimes.com/2024/11/13/b...

Opinion Today @opiniontoday.bsky.social · Nov 14

OPINION TODAY
Trump's new administration and the election's aftermath | What Trump supporters believe and expect | How Resilient Is the Emerging Trump Coalition? | Drop in Death Penalty Support Led by Younger Generations | The 2026 race for CA governor ... & more: opiniontoday.substack.com/p/241114

Christopher Carman @cjcarman.bsky.social · Nov 5

Trump does.

Christopher Carman @cjcarman.bsky.social · Nov 5

Last week at my @UofGlasgow @StevensonTrust lecture on the US POTUS election I said/joked I was waiting for a news report saying that the Amish in PA were going to be the crucial voting group in the state. #nailedit #LancasterPA #youknowyouarefromLancasterwhen

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Christopher Carman @cjcarman.bsky.social · Nov 3

Interesting that even with all the Trump supporting “whales” who have thrown money into the various “election markets”, Trump has dropped 10 pts in Polymarket in this past week

The Army of Election Officials Ready To Reject The Vote

Christopher Carman @cjcarman.bsky.social · Nov 3

“A republic, if you can keep it.”

Benjamin Franklin’s response to the question, “Well Doctor, what have we got, a republic or a monarchy?” on the day the Constitutional Convention delegates signed their draft.

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Christopher Carman @cjcarman.bsky.social · Nov 1

Counties already denying certification of elections across the US. THIS is rather concerning and points to the US election system ending up in uncharted territory. #electiondenialism #USelection2024 podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/t...

Podcast Episode · The Daily · 01/11/2024 · 45m

podcasts.apple.com

The US Presidential Election: Should we just flip a coin?

Christopher Carman @cjcarman.bsky.social · Oct 26

Pls join us on 29 Oct, 6PM in @uofglasow KELVIN GALLERY (in the Gilbert Scott Bldg) for discussion of the upcoming US Elections with @UofGSPS's @cjcarman.bsky.social. What are polls telling us? What can we expect in the last week before the election? register: www.eventbrite.co.uk/e/the-us-pre...

Let's discuss the state of the contest and what we might expect.

www.eventbrite.co.uk

Christopher Carman @cjcarman.bsky.social · Oct 24

As what constitutes “fascism” seems to be a topic of conversation at the moment, let’s look at the definition of the term in the Oxford Dictionary of Politics (2009, 3rd ed pg193). #fascist #fascism #polisci #2024

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Christopher Carman @cjcarman.bsky.social · Oct 15

Interesting - surprising? - % of Dems w/the “they are evil” view (48%). Higher than the Reps who thought Biden won. Yes, certainly not as bad as the Rep election denying crowd but I suspect higher than some might guess.

Scottish Election Study @scotvoting.bsky.social · Sep 20

The long and short of all this is that elevated indy support sustained the SNP long after 2014, powering them to a series of victories at all levels of government.

But in the last couple of years their grip on pro-indy voters has loosened significantly.

Scottish Election Study @scotvoting.bsky.social · Sep 20

We also know it changed people's constitutional preferences, with young people in particular much more supportive than before - although they were always the group most favourably disposed to "devo max". The binary choice presented in 2014 forced people to pick a side.

Scottish Election Study @scotvoting.bsky.social · Sep 20

It similarly altered how people felt about Scotland, believing it had become a more engaged political space. Yes voters were initially more convinced of this, but No voters soon changed their minds.

This shows the % of voters saying the indyref made Scotland more involved ✍️

Scottish Election Study @scotvoting.bsky.social · Sep 20

We also know that the referendum changed how people engaged with politics. A lot of people joined the pro-indy parties after the referendum. At peak, one in 24 Scots belonged to a political party vs one in 125 in the UK as a whole 🪧⬇️