Prof. Eliot Jacobson
@climatecasino.net
Retired professor of mathematics and computer science, casino consultant, author of 4 books: 3 on casino games & 1 poetry book. Now I volunteer, walk a lot & feed local critters.
Climate blog: climatecasino.net
Casino blog: advancedadvantageplay.com
Climate blog: climatecasino.net
Casino blog: advancedadvantageplay.com
Just putting it out there ... El Nino by July, 2026, now looks odds-on.
www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ana...
www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ana...
December 16, 2025 at 1:26 AM
Just putting it out there ... El Nino by July, 2026, now looks odds-on.
www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ana...
www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ana...
Y'all, please do me a favor and click this link -- Josh is the local journalist who has interviewed me five times for his podcast "Santa Barbara Talks."
Josh has a new position as Editor at our local daily paper, and that's quite a story.
www.newspress.com/2025/12/15/j...
Josh has a new position as Editor at our local daily paper, and that's quite a story.
www.newspress.com/2025/12/15/j...
Joshua Molina returns to Santa Barbara News-Press, taking the helm as editor - Santa Barbara News Press
The former News-Press reporter has returned to the daily publication where he launched his career — this time to lead its newsroom.
www.newspress.com
December 15, 2025 at 6:04 PM
Y'all, please do me a favor and click this link -- Josh is the local journalist who has interviewed me five times for his podcast "Santa Barbara Talks."
Josh has a new position as Editor at our local daily paper, and that's quite a story.
www.newspress.com/2025/12/15/j...
Josh has a new position as Editor at our local daily paper, and that's quite a story.
www.newspress.com/2025/12/15/j...
Here's the latest ECMWF forecast for the rest of December for the western U.S.
Will the west coast see record flooding again? The Climate 8-ball abides.
Courtesy of www.tropicaltidbits.com
Will the west coast see record flooding again? The Climate 8-ball abides.
Courtesy of www.tropicaltidbits.com
December 15, 2025 at 4:45 PM
Here's the latest ECMWF forecast for the rest of December for the western U.S.
Will the west coast see record flooding again? The Climate 8-ball abides.
Courtesy of www.tropicaltidbits.com
Will the west coast see record flooding again? The Climate 8-ball abides.
Courtesy of www.tropicaltidbits.com
Your 'moment of doom' for Dec. 15, 2025 ~ Feedbacks loops.
"Loss of biodiversity and land degradation driven by human activity are increasingly disrupting the climate system, triggering atmospheric changes that in turn accelerate further ecological damage""
www.downtoearth.org.in/climate-chan...
"Loss of biodiversity and land degradation driven by human activity are increasingly disrupting the climate system, triggering atmospheric changes that in turn accelerate further ecological damage""
www.downtoearth.org.in/climate-chan...
Biodiversity loss and land degradation fuel climate feedback loop, UN report warns
A UN report highlights how biodiversity loss and land degradation are worsening climate change, with ecosystems shifting from carbon sinks to sources. The Amazon faces irreversible changes if tipping ...
www.downtoearth.org.in
December 15, 2025 at 2:29 PM
Your 'moment of doom' for Dec. 15, 2025 ~ Feedbacks loops.
"Loss of biodiversity and land degradation driven by human activity are increasingly disrupting the climate system, triggering atmospheric changes that in turn accelerate further ecological damage""
www.downtoearth.org.in/climate-chan...
"Loss of biodiversity and land degradation driven by human activity are increasingly disrupting the climate system, triggering atmospheric changes that in turn accelerate further ecological damage""
www.downtoearth.org.in/climate-chan...
For all the 'volcanoes produce more CO2 than humans' CFM's out there ...
In 1991 Mt Pinatubo spewed out 50 MILLION TONNES OF CO₂!!
That's a ridiculously MASSIVE amount!
That's a ridiculously MASSIVE amount!
December 15, 2025 at 1:55 PM
For all the 'volcanoes produce more CO2 than humans' CFM's out there ...
Your 'doom quote' for today:
"... our window of opportunity has closed, and a catastrophic die-off of human population is just beginning."
www.penguinrandomhouse.com/books/801000...
"... our window of opportunity has closed, and a catastrophic die-off of human population is just beginning."
www.penguinrandomhouse.com/books/801000...
Confronting Collapse by Michael C. Ruppert: 9781603582995 | PenguinRandomHouse.com: Books
The book that inspired the movie Collapse. The world is running short of energy-especially cheap, easy-to-find oil. Shortages, along with resulting price increases, threaten industrialized civilizati...
www.penguinrandomhouse.com
December 15, 2025 at 1:50 PM
Your 'doom quote' for today:
"... our window of opportunity has closed, and a catastrophic die-off of human population is just beginning."
www.penguinrandomhouse.com/books/801000...
"... our window of opportunity has closed, and a catastrophic die-off of human population is just beginning."
www.penguinrandomhouse.com/books/801000...
December 14, 2025 at 5:00 PM
It's been about a month since I've posted this one. Global sea-ice extent is currently 3rd lowest for the day on record.
The annual minimum happens in mid-February. Will 2026 see a new record low? The Climate 8-ball is thinking globally.
The annual minimum happens in mid-February. Will 2026 see a new record low? The Climate 8-ball is thinking globally.
December 14, 2025 at 2:31 PM
It's been about a month since I've posted this one. Global sea-ice extent is currently 3rd lowest for the day on record.
The annual minimum happens in mid-February. Will 2026 see a new record low? The Climate 8-ball is thinking globally.
The annual minimum happens in mid-February. Will 2026 see a new record low? The Climate 8-ball is thinking globally.
This graph shows the average November volume of Arctic sea-ice. As you can see, November, 2025, set a new record low for sea-ice volume.
Volume, thickness and extent are all at record lows right now for the date. The Climate 8-ball is chanting, "Ice free by twenty-fifty."
Volume, thickness and extent are all at record lows right now for the date. The Climate 8-ball is chanting, "Ice free by twenty-fifty."
December 13, 2025 at 2:36 PM
This graph shows the average November volume of Arctic sea-ice. As you can see, November, 2025, set a new record low for sea-ice volume.
Volume, thickness and extent are all at record lows right now for the date. The Climate 8-ball is chanting, "Ice free by twenty-fifty."
Volume, thickness and extent are all at record lows right now for the date. The Climate 8-ball is chanting, "Ice free by twenty-fifty."
Must watch from Yellow Dot!
POV: Big Oil explains the weather they caused.
December 12, 2025 at 10:27 PM
Must watch from Yellow Dot!
A casual reminder.
Humans have increased atmospheric CO2 from about 270 ppm pre-industrial to about 435 ppm today, an increase of about 165 ppm.
That's about the same increase as having 1650 people simultaneously urinating 250 ml (~1 cup) into an olympic sized swimming pool.
Humans have increased atmospheric CO2 from about 270 ppm pre-industrial to about 435 ppm today, an increase of about 165 ppm.
That's about the same increase as having 1650 people simultaneously urinating 250 ml (~1 cup) into an olympic sized swimming pool.
December 12, 2025 at 7:42 PM
A casual reminder.
Humans have increased atmospheric CO2 from about 270 ppm pre-industrial to about 435 ppm today, an increase of about 165 ppm.
That's about the same increase as having 1650 people simultaneously urinating 250 ml (~1 cup) into an olympic sized swimming pool.
Humans have increased atmospheric CO2 from about 270 ppm pre-industrial to about 435 ppm today, an increase of about 165 ppm.
That's about the same increase as having 1650 people simultaneously urinating 250 ml (~1 cup) into an olympic sized swimming pool.
Here's an update on Arcitc sea-ice extent, which is still at a record low for the date, about 180,000 square kilometers below the previous record daily low set just last year.
This isn't going to end well.
This isn't going to end well.
December 12, 2025 at 1:40 PM
Here's an update on Arcitc sea-ice extent, which is still at a record low for the date, about 180,000 square kilometers below the previous record daily low set just last year.
This isn't going to end well.
This isn't going to end well.
Here's the 3-year running mean for the global surface temperature anomaly for the past 75 years of data, now at 1.51°C over pre-industrial.
Where is this going over the next 75 years? The Climate 8-ball is moving to its bunker in New Zealand.
Where is this going over the next 75 years? The Climate 8-ball is moving to its bunker in New Zealand.
December 11, 2025 at 2:01 PM
Here's the 3-year running mean for the global surface temperature anomaly for the past 75 years of data, now at 1.51°C over pre-industrial.
Where is this going over the next 75 years? The Climate 8-ball is moving to its bunker in New Zealand.
Where is this going over the next 75 years? The Climate 8-ball is moving to its bunker in New Zealand.
Your daily 'moment of doom' will return next week. In the mean time,
"The climate crisis supercharged the deadly storms that killed more than 1,750 people in Asia by making downpours more intense and flooding worse, scientists have reported."
www.theguardian.com/environment/...
"The climate crisis supercharged the deadly storms that killed more than 1,750 people in Asia by making downpours more intense and flooding worse, scientists have reported."
www.theguardian.com/environment/...
‘Not normal’: Climate crisis supercharged deadly monsoon floods in Asia
Cyclones like those in Indonesia, Sri Lanka and Malaysia that killed 1,750 are ‘alarming new reality’
www.theguardian.com
December 11, 2025 at 1:45 PM
Your daily 'moment of doom' will return next week. In the mean time,
"The climate crisis supercharged the deadly storms that killed more than 1,750 people in Asia by making downpours more intense and flooding worse, scientists have reported."
www.theguardian.com/environment/...
"The climate crisis supercharged the deadly storms that killed more than 1,750 people in Asia by making downpours more intense and flooding worse, scientists have reported."
www.theguardian.com/environment/...
"Heard the roar of a wave that could drown the whole world ..."
"The Science study concludes that the 2023 heat 'may be here to stay' if the cloud-related albedo decline was not 'solely' caused by natural variability."
www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-wha...
"The Science study concludes that the 2023 heat 'may be here to stay' if the cloud-related albedo decline was not 'solely' caused by natural variability."
www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-wha...
Analysis: What are the causes of recent record-high global temperatures? - Carbon Brief
In this article, Carbon Brief explores four different factors that have been proposed for the exceptional warmth seen in recent years
www.carbonbrief.org
December 11, 2025 at 1:38 PM
"Heard the roar of a wave that could drown the whole world ..."
"The Science study concludes that the 2023 heat 'may be here to stay' if the cloud-related albedo decline was not 'solely' caused by natural variability."
www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-wha...
"The Science study concludes that the 2023 heat 'may be here to stay' if the cloud-related albedo decline was not 'solely' caused by natural variability."
www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-wha...
The dumbest possible timeline.
Everything that science gives, from electric vehicles to computers to exploration of the universe, and yet millions of brain rot idiots think that vaccines and climate science are somehow exceptions to the scientific method.
www.hachettebookgroup.com/titles/micha...
Everything that science gives, from electric vehicles to computers to exploration of the universe, and yet millions of brain rot idiots think that vaccines and climate science are somehow exceptions to the scientific method.
www.hachettebookgroup.com/titles/micha...
Science Under Siege
In this “well-researched guide,” two of the world’s most respected scientists reveal the forces behind the dangerous anti-science move...
www.hachettebookgroup.com
December 10, 2025 at 4:54 PM
The dumbest possible timeline.
Everything that science gives, from electric vehicles to computers to exploration of the universe, and yet millions of brain rot idiots think that vaccines and climate science are somehow exceptions to the scientific method.
www.hachettebookgroup.com/titles/micha...
Everything that science gives, from electric vehicles to computers to exploration of the universe, and yet millions of brain rot idiots think that vaccines and climate science are somehow exceptions to the scientific method.
www.hachettebookgroup.com/titles/micha...
Who would have thought?
"Brazil is stripping away protections for the region’s vital ecosystems faster than workers dismantled the tents that housed the recent global climate summit in Belém."
insideclimatenews.org/news/0912202...
"Brazil is stripping away protections for the region’s vital ecosystems faster than workers dismantled the tents that housed the recent global climate summit in Belém."
insideclimatenews.org/news/0912202...
Days After COP30, Brazil Weakened Amazon Safeguards - Inside Climate News
Around the world, politicians, backed by powerful corporations, are presenting the public with false choices between environmental protection and economic growth.
insideclimatenews.org
December 10, 2025 at 1:29 PM
Who would have thought?
"Brazil is stripping away protections for the region’s vital ecosystems faster than workers dismantled the tents that housed the recent global climate summit in Belém."
insideclimatenews.org/news/0912202...
"Brazil is stripping away protections for the region’s vital ecosystems faster than workers dismantled the tents that housed the recent global climate summit in Belém."
insideclimatenews.org/news/0912202...
The OVER is going to win this year, based on my OVER/UNDER line of 1.45°C for 2025.
And if another El Nino comes to pass, then 1.60°C should be in the rear view window for 2026. That would make 2026, in scientific lingo, a "bad hair year."
climatecasino.net/2025/01/bett...
And if another El Nino comes to pass, then 1.60°C should be in the rear view window for 2026. That would make 2026, in scientific lingo, a "bad hair year."
climatecasino.net/2025/01/bett...
Betting on the End of the World: 2025 Edition
So, you're at the water cooler hanging out with your work colleague, and the topic of global warming comes up. The two of you are getting an urge to make a friendly bet with each other, but you can't ...
climatecasino.net
December 9, 2025 at 2:21 PM
The OVER is going to win this year, based on my OVER/UNDER line of 1.45°C for 2025.
And if another El Nino comes to pass, then 1.60°C should be in the rear view window for 2026. That would make 2026, in scientific lingo, a "bad hair year."
climatecasino.net/2025/01/bett...
And if another El Nino comes to pass, then 1.60°C should be in the rear view window for 2026. That would make 2026, in scientific lingo, a "bad hair year."
climatecasino.net/2025/01/bett...
Breaking News!
Code Yikes!
Based on the current forecast for the rest of the year, it's looking like 2025 will likely end up being the 3rd warmest year in the last 120,000+ years:
2023: 1.48°C
2024: 1.60°C
2025 (thru Dec. 7): 1.47°C
www.theguardian.com/environment/...
Code Yikes!
Based on the current forecast for the rest of the year, it's looking like 2025 will likely end up being the 3rd warmest year in the last 120,000+ years:
2023: 1.48°C
2024: 1.60°C
2025 (thru Dec. 7): 1.47°C
www.theguardian.com/environment/...
2025 ‘virtually certain’ to be second- or third-hottest year on record, EU data shows
Copernicus deputy director says three-year average for 2023 to 2025 on track to exceed 1.5C of heating for first time
www.theguardian.com
December 9, 2025 at 2:10 PM
Breaking News!
Code Yikes!
Based on the current forecast for the rest of the year, it's looking like 2025 will likely end up being the 3rd warmest year in the last 120,000+ years:
2023: 1.48°C
2024: 1.60°C
2025 (thru Dec. 7): 1.47°C
www.theguardian.com/environment/...
Code Yikes!
Based on the current forecast for the rest of the year, it's looking like 2025 will likely end up being the 3rd warmest year in the last 120,000+ years:
2023: 1.48°C
2024: 1.60°C
2025 (thru Dec. 7): 1.47°C
www.theguardian.com/environment/...
At 1.5°C, the atmosphere can hold over 10% more water vapor than it could in the pre-industrial period 1850-1900.
The additional precipitation leads to car soup, airport soup, road soup, city soup, farm soup, and a hearty portion of global industrial civilization soup.
The additional precipitation leads to car soup, airport soup, road soup, city soup, farm soup, and a hearty portion of global industrial civilization soup.
December 8, 2025 at 2:54 PM
At 1.5°C, the atmosphere can hold over 10% more water vapor than it could in the pre-industrial period 1850-1900.
The additional precipitation leads to car soup, airport soup, road soup, city soup, farm soup, and a hearty portion of global industrial civilization soup.
The additional precipitation leads to car soup, airport soup, road soup, city soup, farm soup, and a hearty portion of global industrial civilization soup.
"Normalcy bias is a cognitive bias which leads people to disbelieve or minimize threat warnings. Consequently, individuals underestimate the likelihood of a disaster, when it might affect them, and its potential adverse effects."
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Normalc...
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Normalc...
December 8, 2025 at 2:11 PM
"Normalcy bias is a cognitive bias which leads people to disbelieve or minimize threat warnings. Consequently, individuals underestimate the likelihood of a disaster, when it might affect them, and its potential adverse effects."
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Normalc...
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Normalc...
One of the fiercest bouts of vertigo I have ever experienced. Like being in the middle of a tornado. Used the Epley maneuver and felt a little better after about 2 hours. Still feel nauseous and exhausted. World no longer spinning.
December 8, 2025 at 12:50 AM
One of the fiercest bouts of vertigo I have ever experienced. Like being in the middle of a tornado. Used the Epley maneuver and felt a little better after about 2 hours. Still feel nauseous and exhausted. World no longer spinning.
This graphic gives the annualized new methane added to the atmosphere, taking into account the atmospheric lifetime of methane of 110 months.
New methane is currently sitting flat at about 153 ppb per year. Fondly remembering the COP-26 Global Methane Pledge. We were so young.
New methane is currently sitting flat at about 153 ppb per year. Fondly remembering the COP-26 Global Methane Pledge. We were so young.
December 7, 2025 at 2:08 PM
This graphic gives the annualized new methane added to the atmosphere, taking into account the atmospheric lifetime of methane of 110 months.
New methane is currently sitting flat at about 153 ppb per year. Fondly remembering the COP-26 Global Methane Pledge. We were so young.
New methane is currently sitting flat at about 153 ppb per year. Fondly remembering the COP-26 Global Methane Pledge. We were so young.