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The Cook Political Report
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Non-partisan analysis featuring the trusted voices of Amy Walter, David Wasserman, Jessica Taylor, Erin Covey and Matthew Klein. The right analysis for getting it right. Learn more: cookpolitical.com/subscribe
The contest to be California’s next governor is finally coming into focus — even if the Democratic field still remains murky.

Read more from @jessicataylor.bsky.social:
As Filing Deadline Nears, California Gubernatorial Race Remains Wide Open
The contest to be California’s next governor is finally coming into focus — even if the Democratic field still remains murky.With several viable Democrats splitting the field, the current polling fron...
www.cookpolitical.com
January 30, 2026 at 1:17 AM
Reposted by The Cook Political Report
🎙️ON AIR:

We're talking to @kqednews.kqed.org's Guy Marzorati and @cookpolitical.com's @erincovey.bsky.social about how redistricting is shaking out in races across California, and whether Democrats have gained an edge nationally ahead of the 2026 midterms.

❓What races are you watching?

📻 Listen:
How Prop 50 and Governor’s Race Are Shaping Early Midterm Projections | KQED
We’ll look at how redistricting is shaking out in races across the state. And we’ll examine whether Democrats have gained an edge nationally as new polling shows voters souring on Trump’s immigration…
www.kqed.org
January 29, 2026 at 6:01 PM
Arizona Republicans’ three-way gubernatorial primary could leave the party at risk of blowing a winnable general election.

Read more from Matthew Klein:
Arizona Governor: Three’s a Crowd
After losing Arizona’s governorship by less than one point in 2022, Republicans are ready for a do-over. They view Democratic Gov. Katie Hobbs as unusually vulnerable and unprepared for a growing GOP ...
www.cookpolitical.com
January 28, 2026 at 10:42 PM
Views of Trump’s handling of immigration, and of the actions of ICE in particular, had already been decaying for months.

Read Amy Walter's latest column:
Are We at an Immigration Policy Tipping Point?
To many, the killing of ICU nurse Alex Pretti by federal agents in Minneapolis feels like a political tipping point, sadly similar to the one we witnessed just a few years ago with the murder of Georg...
www.cookpolitical.com
January 27, 2026 at 9:59 PM
NEW podcast: Is the Administration Backing Down on ICE Politics? -with Amy Walter, Carrie Dann, Matthew Klein, @jessicataylor.bsky.social & @erincovey.bsky.social.

Listen on Apple: podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/i...
January 26, 2026 at 10:39 PM
A flood of anti-Malinowski ads from AIPAC has disrupted the special election in NJ-11, making it the first test of the pro-Israel lobby’s power in 2026.

Here's what you need to know from @erincovey.bsky.social:
Special Election to Replace Sherrill Exposes Fractures in the Democratic Primary
The factions and tensions within the Democratic Party are on full display in the special election for New Jersey’s 11th District, left vacant by newly-elected Gov. Mikie Sherrill.
www.cookpolitical.com
January 23, 2026 at 12:27 AM
President Donald Trump once again showed this week that he has a long memory when it comes to revenge.

Read more from @jessicataylor.bsky.social:
Cassidy In Peril After Trump Endorses Letlow for Louisiana Senate
President Donald Trump once again showed this week that he has a long memory when it comes to revenge.In a surprise move Saturday night, the president endorsed Louisiana Rep. Julia Letlow over Sen. Bi...
www.cookpolitical.com
January 23, 2026 at 12:19 AM
As long as Republican voters continue to support the way Trump has conducted U.S. foreign policy, there’s little reason to believe that Republican members of Congress will push back on the president.

Read Amy Walter's latest column:
Why Are Republicans in Congress Sticking With Trump on Greenland? The Numbers Tell the Story.
As President Donald Trump continues to up the ante on Greenland, threatening to levy additional tariffs on European countries that oppose his demands to take control of the country, many in the chatte...
www.cookpolitical.com
January 21, 2026 at 8:01 PM
In a state with a history of rough-and-tumble politics, the crowded race for South Carolina governor is already shaping up to be a brawl.

Read this from @jessicataylor.bsky.social:
South Carolina Set for Rowdy GOP Primary for Governor
In a state with a history of rough-and-tumble politics, the crowded race for South Carolina governor is already shaping up to be a brawl.The top four Republicans fighting in the June 9 primary to succ...
www.cookpolitical.com
January 21, 2026 at 2:12 AM
As long as Republican voters continue to support the way Trump has conducted U.S. foreign policy, there’s little reason to believe that Republican members of Congress will push back on the president.

Read Amy Walter's latest column:
Why Are Republicans in Congress Sticking With Trump on Greenland? The Numbers Tell the Story.
As President Donald Trump continues to up the ante on Greenland, threatening to levy additional tariffs on European countries that oppose his demands to take control of the country, many in the chatte...
www.cookpolitical.com
January 21, 2026 at 12:15 AM
NEW podcast! We Moved 18 House Races Towards Democrats. Here's Why. - with @redistrict.bsky.social, @erincovey.bsky.social & Matthew Klein.

Listen on Apple: podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/w...
January 20, 2026 at 6:04 PM
State Superintendent Megan Degenfelder is favored to win Wyoming’s governorship after landing President Trump’s endorsement.
‘MAGA Megan’ Makes Her Mark in Wyoming Gubernatorial Primary
Just as Wyoming’s gubernatorial contest started to heat up, President Donald Trump froze the field in its tracks. His decision to endorse state Superintendent of Public Instruction Megan Degenfelder e...
www.cookpolitical.com
January 16, 2026 at 12:41 AM
The Cook Political Report moves 18 House races in Democrats' direction.
Eighteen House Ratings Shift Toward Democrats
Ten months out from Election Day, it’s increasingly clear that Democrats are in a strong position to win control of the House this November.
www.cookpolitical.com
January 15, 2026 at 5:19 PM
It’s hard to know which of the many news events of the year will impact the midterms. Instead, the answer to these three questions are more likely to define the outcome of 2026.

Read Amy Walter's latest column:
Three Key Questions for 2026
We are barely two weeks into 2026, and we’ve already been hit by a tsunami of significant news events — from the capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, to widespread protests in Iran, to the ...
www.cookpolitical.com
January 14, 2026 at 8:54 PM
🎧NEW podcast: Peltola's Run in Alaska Changes the Map for Senate Dems with Amy Walter and @jessicataylor.bsky.social.

Listen on Apple: podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/p...
January 12, 2026 at 6:44 PM
Senate Dems have landed another key recruit in their battle for the Senate majority, convincing former Alaska Rep. Mary Peltola to challenge Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan. We move this race from Solid -> Lean R.

Read more from @jessicataylor.bsky.social:
With Peltola Announcement, Alaska Senate Moves to Lean Republican
Senate Democrats have landed another key recruit in their battle for the Senate majority, convincing former Alaska Rep. Mary Peltola to challenge Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan.With Peltola’s announceme...
www.cookpolitical.com
January 12, 2026 at 1:17 PM
Now that the election year is upon us, it’s worth revisiting how the various factors driving the midterms are similar or different to those that defined 2018.

Read David Wasserman's latest: www.cookpolitical.com/analys...
Five Ways 2026 Looks Like 2018 — and Five Ways It Doesn’t
For all the ways in which Trump 2.0 has blown past the bounds of Trump 1.0 — expanded use of emergency tariffs, divisive stepped-up ICE crackdowns, National Guard deployments and now the extraction and detention of a South American head of state — 2026 is still on track to follow the patterns of previous midterm elections, in which a dissatisfied electorate turns down the thermostat on the president’s agenda and penalizes the party in power.
www.cookpolitical.com
January 9, 2026 at 3:40 PM
The more it looks as if Trump is more interested in spreading the “Donroe Doctrine” than in tackling the economy, the harder it will be for GOP members in 2026 to battle Democrats’ affordability attacks.

Read Amy Walter's latest column:
The ‘Donroe Doctrine’ Is Here. What Does it Mean for 2026?
For a candidate who spent his 2024 campaign focused on domestic policy, the first year of President Donald Trump’s second term has been defined as much by brash and consequential foreign policy action...
www.cookpolitical.com
January 6, 2026 at 9:30 PM
Even with retirement and recruitment breaks, Democrats remain the underdogs to Republicans given a challenging midterm map. Here's @jessicataylor.bsky.social on four questions in the battle for the Senate:
Four Questions in the Battle for the Senate Heading into 2026
Democrats are undeniably entering 2026 with a better chance of retaking the Senate than they were at the outset of the year. But even with retirements and recruitments breaking their way, they remain ...
www.cookpolitical.com
January 1, 2026 at 5:29 PM
CPR's Redistricting Tracker is following developments in every state taking up redistricting, or considering it, over the next several months — as well as the gains that each party could make under redrawn maps.
December 31, 2025 at 3:42 PM
Following Wyoming Republican Cynthia Lummis’s retirement announcement earlier this month, at-large Rep. Harriet Hageman is poised to succeed her in the Senate.

Read this from @jessicataylor.bsky.social:
With Trump Endorsement, Hageman Is the Clear Early Favorite to Succeed Lummis
Following Wyoming Republican Cynthia Lummis’s retirement announcement earlier this month, at-large Rep. Harriet Hageman is poised to succeed her in the Senate.Hageman, 63, launched her campaign on Dec...
www.cookpolitical.com
December 30, 2025 at 8:57 PM
Rep. Elise Stefanik’s withdrawal from the New York governor race reflects an increasingly obvious reality: Republicans are not in a position to flip the state next year.

The race shifts from Likely D to Solid D.
Stefanik’s Out, but Sour Environment Shifts New York Governor Into Solid Democrat
Rep. Elise Stefanik’s roller coaster of a year has finally reached its end. The Republican pulled out of the race for New York governor — and also passed on a reelection bid — on Dec. 19, explicitly a...
www.cookpolitical.com
December 30, 2025 at 12:39 PM
🙌 Just launched! CPR's new “Find A Race” tool. 🙌

Search and filter House, Senate, and Governor races by state, race type, CPR Race Rating, and more. Track the races that matter to you, in real time.

Check it out now: cookpolitical.com/races
December 29, 2025 at 2:44 PM
When it comes to politics, Gen Z generally hates everyone and everything. But they may still be primed to deliver for Democrats in 2026.

Read Carrie Dann on @harvardiop.bsky.social's Youth Poll:
Young Americans Hate Both Parties. They May Still Pick Democrats in 2026.
When it comes to politics, Gen Z generally hates everyone and everything. But they may still be primed to deliver for Democrats in 2026.A new national poll of 18-to 29-year-olds, conducted by the Inst...
www.cookpolitical.com
December 26, 2025 at 3:24 PM
From battleground races to member-on-member matchups, the Lone Star State is chock-full of action-packed House districts this cycle.

Read this mammoth overview from @erincovey.bsky.social & Matthew Klein:
2026 Texas House Analysis: The Ramifications of Redistricting
Despite initial resistance from Texas’ congressional delegation, President Donald Trump successfully pressured Texas Republicans into redrawing their state’s congressional map, giving the party an opp...
www.cookpolitical.com
December 24, 2025 at 1:32 PM