Critical Threats Project
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An AEI project focused on understanding threats and tracking global challenges | Contact us: [email protected] | Media requests: [email protected]
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Iran Update, November 21, 2025
www.criticalthreats.org
NEW | Coastal Insurgency: Some Syrian General Security Service (GSS) units are improving their counter-insurgency approach in rural minority areas by relying on relationships with locals.
Read more: www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/ira... (1/6)
Read more: www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/ira... (1/6)
NEW | The IDF killed Hezbollah's "de facto chief of staff" Haitham Ali Tabatabai on November 23. Hezbollah officials have stated that the strike crossed the group’s “red line” but did not explicitly vow to retaliate for the strike. www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/ira...
November 25, 2025 at 2:14 PM
NEW | The IDF killed Hezbollah's "de facto chief of staff" Haitham Ali Tabatabai on November 23. Hezbollah officials have stated that the strike crossed the group’s “red line” but did not explicitly vow to retaliate for the strike. www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/ira...
NEW I The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) killed Hezbollah’s “de facto chief of staff” and senior commander Haitham Ali Tabatabai in Beirut’s southern suburbs on November 23. 1/7
Read more here: x.com/criticalthre...
Read more here: x.com/criticalthre...
November 25, 2025 at 1:00 AM
NEW I The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) killed Hezbollah’s “de facto chief of staff” and senior commander Haitham Ali Tabatabai in Beirut’s southern suburbs on November 23. 1/7
Read more here: x.com/criticalthre...
Read more here: x.com/criticalthre...
NEW | Coastal Insurgency: Some Syrian General Security Service (GSS) units are improving their counter-insurgency approach in rural minority areas by relying on relationships with locals.
Read more: www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/ira... (1/6)
Read more: www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/ira... (1/6)
Iran Update, November 21, 2025
www.criticalthreats.org
November 22, 2025 at 12:47 AM
NEW | Coastal Insurgency: Some Syrian General Security Service (GSS) units are improving their counter-insurgency approach in rural minority areas by relying on relationships with locals.
Read more: www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/ira... (1/6)
Read more: www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/ira... (1/6)
All available reporting continues to indicate that the stipulations of the reported 28-point Russia-US peace plan amount to Ukraine's full capitulation to Russia's original war demands.
November 21, 2025 at 2:28 AM
All available reporting continues to indicate that the stipulations of the reported 28-point Russia-US peace plan amount to Ukraine's full capitulation to Russia's original war demands.
Iran has reportedly signaled its willingness to resume negotiations with the United States if its “rights”—which refers to enriching uranium on Iranian soil—are guaranteed.
Read more from @thestudyofwar.bsky.social and @criticalthreats.bsky.social here: www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/ira...
Read more from @thestudyofwar.bsky.social and @criticalthreats.bsky.social here: www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/ira...
November 21, 2025 at 12:52 AM
Iran has reportedly signaled its willingness to resume negotiations with the United States if its “rights”—which refers to enriching uranium on Iranian soil—are guaranteed.
Read more from @thestudyofwar.bsky.social and @criticalthreats.bsky.social here: www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/ira...
Read more from @thestudyofwar.bsky.social and @criticalthreats.bsky.social here: www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/ira...
Iran continues to develop parts of its nuclear program that could potentially support the development of a nuclear weapon. www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/ira...
November 20, 2025 at 2:20 PM
Iran continues to develop parts of its nuclear program that could potentially support the development of a nuclear weapon. www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/ira...
NEW | Iranian Nuclear Research: An Iranian Defense Ministry-affiliated delegation covertly traveled to Russia in November 2024, possibly to seek “laser technology and expertise that could 👇
www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/ira...
www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/ira...
Iran Update, November 19, 2025
www.criticalthreats.org
November 20, 2025 at 1:14 AM
NEW | Iranian Nuclear Research: An Iranian Defense Ministry-affiliated delegation covertly traveled to Russia in November 2024, possibly to seek “laser technology and expertise that could 👇
www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/ira...
www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/ira...
Recent Iranian construction at the Mount Kolang Gaz La facility in Esfahan Province has fueled concerns that the site could serve as a centrifuge assembly plant and as a covert enrichment facility or secure storage facility for highly enriched uranium. www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/ira...
November 19, 2025 at 1:55 PM
Recent Iranian construction at the Mount Kolang Gaz La facility in Esfahan Province has fueled concerns that the site could serve as a centrifuge assembly plant and as a covert enrichment facility or secure storage facility for highly enriched uranium. www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/ira...
Russian forces are struggling to focus on a single decisive objective in the Pokrovsk direction and instead continue simultaneous attempts to close the encirclement of the wider Pokrovsk-Myrnohrad pocket while also attacking within both towns. www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/rus...
November 19, 2025 at 3:57 AM
Russian forces are struggling to focus on a single decisive objective in the Pokrovsk direction and instead continue simultaneous attempts to close the encirclement of the wider Pokrovsk-Myrnohrad pocket while also attacking within both towns. www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/rus...
The Shia Coordination Framework announced on November 17 that it formed the “largest parliamentary bloc” with 157 seats.
The Iraqi president will select the largest coalition in parliament to try to form a government. www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/ira...
The Iraqi president will select the largest coalition in parliament to try to form a government. www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/ira...
November 19, 2025 at 12:27 AM
The Shia Coordination Framework announced on November 17 that it formed the “largest parliamentary bloc” with 157 seats.
The Iraqi president will select the largest coalition in parliament to try to form a government. www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/ira...
The Iraqi president will select the largest coalition in parliament to try to form a government. www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/ira...
UPDATE | IRGC-affiliated media claimed that the IRGC Navy seized the Talara tanker on November 14 because it was attempting to illegally export Iranian cargo. Read more: www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/ira...
November 18, 2025 at 2:37 PM
UPDATE | IRGC-affiliated media claimed that the IRGC Navy seized the Talara tanker on November 14 because it was attempting to illegally export Iranian cargo. Read more: www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/ira...
Russian forces may be attempting to fix Ukrainian forces within Pokrovsk itself while also encircling Ukrainian forces in the Pokrovsk-Myrnohrad pocket from the west, likely because Russian forces have found such an encirclement more feasible. Read more: www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/rus...
November 18, 2025 at 3:50 AM
Russian forces may be attempting to fix Ukrainian forces within Pokrovsk itself while also encircling Ukrainian forces in the Pokrovsk-Myrnohrad pocket from the west, likely because Russian forces have found such an encirclement more feasible. Read more: www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/rus...
Iraq’s electoral commission, the Independent High Electoral Commission, released the final results and associated seat allocations from the November 11 Iraqi parliamentary elections on November 17. Read more: www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/ira...
November 18, 2025 at 1:18 AM
Iraq’s electoral commission, the Independent High Electoral Commission, released the final results and associated seat allocations from the November 11 Iraqi parliamentary elections on November 17. Read more: www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/ira...
Today's Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment:
Russian forces are attempting to complete their encirclement of Ukrainian forces in Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad. www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/rus...
Russian forces are attempting to complete their encirclement of Ukrainian forces in Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad. www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/rus...
November 17, 2025 at 12:42 AM
Today's Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment:
Russian forces are attempting to complete their encirclement of Ukrainian forces in Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad. www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/rus...
Russian forces are attempting to complete their encirclement of Ukrainian forces in Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad. www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/rus...
Russian forces used weather conditions to exploit vulnerabilities in Ukraine's drone-based battlefield defenses in the Novopavlivka direction
Read more from @thestudyofwar.bsky.social and @criticalthreats.bsky.social here: www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/rus...
Read more from @thestudyofwar.bsky.social and @criticalthreats.bsky.social here: www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/rus...
November 16, 2025 at 1:54 AM
Russian forces used weather conditions to exploit vulnerabilities in Ukraine's drone-based battlefield defenses in the Novopavlivka direction
Read more from @thestudyofwar.bsky.social and @criticalthreats.bsky.social here: www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/rus...
Read more from @thestudyofwar.bsky.social and @criticalthreats.bsky.social here: www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/rus...
The Russian military command appears to be prioritizing the seizure of Pokrovsk over efforts to close the wider Ukrainian pocket in the Pokrovsk-Myrnohrad area. www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/rus...
November 15, 2025 at 1:42 AM
The Russian military command appears to be prioritizing the seizure of Pokrovsk over efforts to close the wider Ukrainian pocket in the Pokrovsk-Myrnohrad area. www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/rus...
Three small IRGC vessels intercepted a tanker carrying high-sulfur gas oil from the UAE to Singapore and moved it into Iranian waters in the Strait of Hormuz on November 14. www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/ira...
November 15, 2025 at 12:37 AM
Three small IRGC vessels intercepted a tanker carrying high-sulfur gas oil from the UAE to Singapore and moved it into Iranian waters in the Strait of Hormuz on November 14. www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/ira...
NEW | Iraqi Parliamentary Elections: A Shia Coordination Framework member suggested on November 13 that the framework could exclude PM Mohammad Shia al Sudani’s coalition from government formation. (1/7)
Read more from CTP and @thestudyofwar.bsky.social: www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/ira...
Read more from CTP and @thestudyofwar.bsky.social: www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/ira...
Iran Update, November 13, 2025
www.criticalthreats.org
November 14, 2025 at 12:35 AM
NEW | Iraqi Parliamentary Elections: A Shia Coordination Framework member suggested on November 13 that the framework could exclude PM Mohammad Shia al Sudani’s coalition from government formation. (1/7)
Read more from CTP and @thestudyofwar.bsky.social: www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/ira...
Read more from CTP and @thestudyofwar.bsky.social: www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/ira...
Informal government negotiations will continue following the November 11 Iraqi parliamentary elections. MORE: www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/ira...
November 13, 2025 at 2:09 PM
Informal government negotiations will continue following the November 11 Iraqi parliamentary elections. MORE: www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/ira...
NEW | The situation in the Hulyaipole direction is deteriorating, although Russian forces will probably spend considerable time setting conditions for efforts to seize the settlement. Read more here: www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/rus...
November 13, 2025 at 5:21 AM
NEW | The situation in the Hulyaipole direction is deteriorating, although Russian forces will probably spend considerable time setting conditions for efforts to seize the settlement. Read more here: www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/rus...
The voter turnout rate was 56 percent in the November 11 Iraqi parliamentary elections. Iraqi politicians will likely continue informal government formation negotiations in advance of the Federal Supreme Court’s ratification of election results.
Read more: www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/ira...
Read more: www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/ira...
November 13, 2025 at 12:44 AM
The voter turnout rate was 56 percent in the November 11 Iraqi parliamentary elections. Iraqi politicians will likely continue informal government formation negotiations in advance of the Federal Supreme Court’s ratification of election results.
Read more: www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/ira...
Read more: www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/ira...
The US gave the Lebanese government a list of economic and security demands aimed at further degrading Hezbollah on November 9. www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/ira...
November 12, 2025 at 2:16 PM
The US gave the Lebanese government a list of economic and security demands aimed at further degrading Hezbollah on November 9. www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/ira...
NEW I Iraq held parliamentary elections on November 11. 1/5
Read the full update here: www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/ira...
Read the full update here: www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/ira...
November 11, 2025 at 10:51 PM
NEW I Iraq held parliamentary elections on November 11. 1/5
Read the full update here: www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/ira...
Read the full update here: www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/ira...
NEW | Syria-US Relations: Syrian President Ahmed al Shara met with US President Donald Trump at the White House on November 10. Shara’s visit marked the first visit of any Syrian president to the White House.
www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/ira...
www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/ira...
Iran Update, November 10, 2025
www.criticalthreats.org
November 11, 2025 at 1:35 AM
NEW | Syria-US Relations: Syrian President Ahmed al Shara met with US President Donald Trump at the White House on November 10. Shara’s visit marked the first visit of any Syrian president to the White House.
www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/ira...
www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/ira...
Russian and Ukrainian forces continue interdiction campaigns in the Pokrovsk direction as the rate of Russian advances in and around Pokrovsk remains temporarily decreased. www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/rus...
November 9, 2025 at 10:16 PM
Russian and Ukrainian forces continue interdiction campaigns in the Pokrovsk direction as the rate of Russian advances in and around Pokrovsk remains temporarily decreased. www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/rus...