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Critical Threats Project

@criticalthreats.bsky.social

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An AEI project focused on understanding threats and tracking global challenges | Contact us: [email protected] | Media requests: [email protected]

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Critical Threats Project @criticalthreats.bsky.social · 4d

NEW | Gaza Ceasefire Plan: Hamas agreed to a ceasefire with Israel on October 3 but called for negotiating other aspects of US President Donald Trump’s plan for peace in the Gaza Strip.
Read today's update from CTP and @thestudyofwar.bsky.social: www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/ira... (1/8)

Iran Update, October 6, 2025

www.criticalthreats.org

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Critical Threats Project @criticalthreats.bsky.social · 12h

Ukraine’s European partners continue to allocate aid to Ukraine and deepen cooperation with the Ukrainian defense industrial base (DIB).

Critical Threats Project @criticalthreats.bsky.social · 12h

US First Lady Melania Trump announced that she assisted efforts to return seven Ukrainian children that Russia abducted.

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Critical Threats Project @criticalthreats.bsky.social · 12h

Putin also continued to threaten the West as part of his reflexive control campaign aimed at preventing the US from selling Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine and portraying Russia’s continued adherence to the New START treaty as a meaningful concession in negotiations to end the war in Ukraine.

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Critical Threats Project @criticalthreats.bsky.social · 12h

The Kremlin continues parallel efforts to curry favor with the United States while deflecting blame onto Ukraine and Europe for stalling negotiations on ending the war in Ukraine.

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Critical Threats Project @criticalthreats.bsky.social · 12h

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky reported that Russian strikes injured over 20 civilians and killed a child in Zaporizhzhia City.

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Critical Threats Project @criticalthreats.bsky.social · 12h

Russian forces launched a large, combined drone and missile strike against Ukraine on the night of October 9 to 10, primarily targeting energy infrastructure and civilian targets. www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/rus...

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Critical Threats Project @criticalthreats.bsky.social · 15h

Israeli forces retain control of approximately 53 percent of the Gaza Strip.

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Critical Threats Project @criticalthreats.bsky.social · 15h

600 truckloads of humanitarian aid will enter the Strip each day.

Two hundred US military personnel will be in Israel to assist with the ceasefire implementation, but they will not enter the Gaza Strip

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Critical Threats Project @criticalthreats.bsky.social · 15h

Hamas agreed to release all 20 living Israeli hostages and return the remains of all deceased hostages in its possession within three days of implementation.

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Critical Threats Project @criticalthreats.bsky.social · 15h

Israel and Hamas implemented a ceasefire in the Gaza Strip at 0500 ET on October 10.

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Critical Threats Project @criticalthreats.bsky.social · 15h

NEW | The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) withdrew to the eastern half of the Gaza Strip before the ceasefire began and has assured Hamas it will not reenter the western areas of the Strip if Hamas meets its ceasefire and hostage release obligations. www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/ira...

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Critical Threats Project @criticalthreats.bsky.social · 16h

Read today's full brief here: www.criticalthreats.org/briefs/congo...

Congo War Security Review, October 10, 2025

www.criticalthreats.org

Critical Threats Project @criticalthreats.bsky.social · 16h

In today's Congo War Security Review:

The Congolese government and M23 will reportedly discuss a Qatari-proposed draft peace agreement in the next round of talks next week.

The Congolese army bombed and disabled a key M23-controlled bridge on the RP1030 in North Kivu.

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Critical Threats Project @criticalthreats.bsky.social · 1d

In these agreements, the communities agree to pay taxes, adhere to JNIM-interpreted shari’a law, and cease cooperation with state security forces; and the military agrees to confine or reduce its presence in the area. 6/6

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Critical Threats Project @criticalthreats.bsky.social · 1d

The negotiations fit a growing pattern of junta-backed negotiations with JNIM, which give the group de facto control of affected areas, across the country in 2025. 5/6

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Critical Threats Project @criticalthreats.bsky.social · 1d

The lack of fuel threatens to undermine the Malian mining sector in the medium term.

While many mines have enough fuel reserves to weather temporary disruptions, local populations or the state could attempt to requisition the fuel reserves of mining companies in an emergency. 4/6

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Critical Threats Project @criticalthreats.bsky.social · 1d

JNIM’s blockade has begun to cause widespread fuel shortages as it enters its second month.

The blockade has caused fuel prices to more than double, closed gas stations across Mali, and left citizens waiting for hours in line at the stations still operable. 3/6

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Critical Threats Project @criticalthreats.bsky.social · 1d

Local leaders in central Mali have begun negotiating with JNIM under the supervision of Malian intelligence since at least early October.

JNIM has reportedly demanded that the junta lift its ban on fuel sales in remote villages. 2/6

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Critical Threats Project @criticalthreats.bsky.social · 1d

NEW | The Malian junta has supported select local negotiations with al Qaeda’s Sahelian affiliate JNIM to ease the ongoing fuel blockade, which has had widespread impacts on the Malian economy. 🧵
www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/mal...

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Critical Threats Project @criticalthreats.bsky.social · 1d

Hamas and Israeli officials have not yet discussed key outstanding aspects of the US plan, including governance over the Gaza Strip and Hamas’ disarmament. It remains unclear if the Hamas-Israel ceasefire will impact how Hamas’ partners in the Axis of Resistance engage with Israel. 3/3

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Critical Threats Project @criticalthreats.bsky.social · 1d

The Hamas-Israel ceasefire in the Gaza Strip is a framework ceasefire agreement and not a comprehensive agreement to end the war. 2/3

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Critical Threats Project @criticalthreats.bsky.social · 1d

NEW I Hamas and Israel agreed on October 8 to the first phase of US President Donald Trump’s plan for peace in the Gaza Strip. 1/3

Read more here: www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/ira...

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Critical Threats Project @criticalthreats.bsky.social · 2d

It is unclear if these arrests are related to the upcoming November 2025 parliamentary elections, but the arrests come as multiple Iranian-backed Iraqi actors have sought to disqualify alleged Baath Party remnants ahead of the elections.

Critical Threats Project @criticalthreats.bsky.social · 2d

Iraqi Shia political parties have weaponized this law and other de-Baathification mechanisms to target Sunnis, particularly Sunni political opposition.

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Critical Threats Project @criticalthreats.bsky.social · 2d

Iraqi law prohibits Baath Party members from participating in political activities, including competing in elections.

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