Dan Neidle
@danneidle.bsky.social
Founder of Tax Policy Associates Ltd. Tax realist. @danneidle on Twitter
Bad news for anyone thinking of responding to the consultation on the new electric vehicle duty.
The consultation opens today, and closes last March.
The consultation opens today, and closes last March.
November 26, 2025 at 6:42 PM
Bad news for anyone thinking of responding to the consultation on the new electric vehicle duty.
The consultation opens today, and closes last March.
The consultation opens today, and closes last March.
Our tax calculator is now updated for the Budget: taxpolicy.org.uk/wp-content/a...
You'll see no change in the tax you pay in 2026/27 unless you're a landlord or receive interest/dividend income.
You'll see no change in the tax you pay in 2026/27 unless you're a landlord or receive interest/dividend income.
November 26, 2025 at 6:34 PM
Our tax calculator is now updated for the Budget: taxpolicy.org.uk/wp-content/a...
You'll see no change in the tax you pay in 2026/27 unless you're a landlord or receive interest/dividend income.
You'll see no change in the tax you pay in 2026/27 unless you're a landlord or receive interest/dividend income.
There's a lot in this chart. Would love to see the equivalent for e.g. France or Denmark.
I expect we'd see: less tax on median earner. More tax on top decile. More welfare and benefit-in-kind at the higher deciles.
I expect we'd see: less tax on median earner. More tax on top decile. More welfare and benefit-in-kind at the higher deciles.
November 26, 2025 at 6:13 PM
There's a lot in this chart. Would love to see the equivalent for e.g. France or Denmark.
I expect we'd see: less tax on median earner. More tax on top decile. More welfare and benefit-in-kind at the higher deciles.
I expect we'd see: less tax on median earner. More tax on top decile. More welfare and benefit-in-kind at the higher deciles.
The good, the bad and the ugly of the Budget:
The bad: the Budget contained no significant tax reforms, and almost nothing in the way of pro-growth measures. The capital allowance change will reduce business investment - it's positively anti-growth.
The bad: the Budget contained no significant tax reforms, and almost nothing in the way of pro-growth measures. The capital allowance change will reduce business investment - it's positively anti-growth.
November 26, 2025 at 4:24 PM
The good, the bad and the ugly of the Budget:
The bad: the Budget contained no significant tax reforms, and almost nothing in the way of pro-growth measures. The capital allowance change will reduce business investment - it's positively anti-growth.
The bad: the Budget contained no significant tax reforms, and almost nothing in the way of pro-growth measures. The capital allowance change will reduce business investment - it's positively anti-growth.
How much will the council tax surcharge reduce the price of £5m houses?
Probably somewhere between £150k and £375k.
So if you own a £5m house, you just lost money.
If you were planning to buy one, you haven't (because you'll pay the tax, but save on the purchase)
Probably somewhere between £150k and £375k.
So if you own a £5m house, you just lost money.
If you were planning to buy one, you haven't (because you'll pay the tax, but save on the purchase)
November 26, 2025 at 2:15 PM
How much will the council tax surcharge reduce the price of £5m houses?
Probably somewhere between £150k and £375k.
So if you own a £5m house, you just lost money.
If you were planning to buy one, you haven't (because you'll pay the tax, but save on the purchase)
Probably somewhere between £150k and £375k.
So if you own a £5m house, you just lost money.
If you were planning to buy one, you haven't (because you'll pay the tax, but save on the purchase)
Lots of updates to our Budget analysis - all at taxpolicy.org.uk/2025/11/26/t...
The Budget - what it says
Tax Policy Associates’ summary of the measures in the Budget - what they are, what they mean, and their likely long-term consequences
buff.ly
November 26, 2025 at 2:07 PM
Lots of updates to our Budget analysis - all at taxpolicy.org.uk/2025/11/26/t...
All the Budget papers are now out: buff.ly/RvwvmnB
buff.ly
November 26, 2025 at 1:47 PM
All the Budget papers are now out: buff.ly/RvwvmnB
Big news, income tax is being charged this year.
(It has to be renewed each year or it ceases to apply. Because it's a temporary tax, introduced to fund the Napoleonic wars)
(It has to be renewed each year or it ceases to apply. Because it's a temporary tax, introduced to fund the Napoleonic wars)
November 26, 2025 at 1:42 PM
Big news, income tax is being charged this year.
(It has to be renewed each year or it ceases to apply. Because it's a temporary tax, introduced to fund the Napoleonic wars)
(It has to be renewed each year or it ceases to apply. Because it's a temporary tax, introduced to fund the Napoleonic wars)
Me, seeing the OBR Budget report half an hour before the Budget:
November 26, 2025 at 1:41 PM
Me, seeing the OBR Budget report half an hour before the Budget:
Live-updating our Budget report as the Chancellor speaks: buff.ly/1dW05S4
The Budget - what it says
Tax Policy Associates’ summary of the measures in the Budget - what they are, what they mean, and their likely long-term consequences
buff.ly
November 26, 2025 at 1:31 PM
Live-updating our Budget report as the Chancellor speaks: buff.ly/1dW05S4
It's all about fiscal creep.
November 26, 2025 at 1:29 PM
It's all about fiscal creep.
The Chancellor hasn't really started, but we know almost everything thanks to the OBR leak (spotted by Beth Rigby)
Some quick thoughts: buff.ly/1dW05S4
Some quick thoughts: buff.ly/1dW05S4
The Budget - what it says
Tax Policy Associates’ summary of the measures in the Budget - what they are, what they mean, and their likely long-term consequences
buff.ly
November 26, 2025 at 12:40 PM
The Chancellor hasn't really started, but we know almost everything thanks to the OBR leak (spotted by Beth Rigby)
Some quick thoughts: buff.ly/1dW05S4
Some quick thoughts: buff.ly/1dW05S4
Beth Rigby spotted that the OBR accidentally published their Budget papers too soon. It's down now, but I've archived a copy: buff.ly/SfFAiCu
buff.ly
November 26, 2025 at 12:18 PM
Beth Rigby spotted that the OBR accidentally published their Budget papers too soon. It's down now, but I've archived a copy: buff.ly/SfFAiCu
Most of the attention tomorrow will be on the big tax-raising measures. But there are an unusual number of important other items, which appear technical, but will impact everyone from billionaire non-doms to the poorest people in the country.
We'll be watching for these six:
We'll be watching for these six:
November 26, 2025 at 10:54 AM
Most of the attention tomorrow will be on the big tax-raising measures. But there are an unusual number of important other items, which appear technical, but will impact everyone from billionaire non-doms to the poorest people in the country.
We'll be watching for these six:
We'll be watching for these six:
The map on the left shades constituencies by % of top council tax band properties (Band H in England, Band H and I in Wales)
The map on the right shades by median house prices.
Very different maps. That's the problem with council tax.
The map on the right shades by median house prices.
Very different maps. That's the problem with council tax.
November 25, 2025 at 8:58 PM
The map on the left shades constituencies by % of top council tax band properties (Band H in England, Band H and I in Wales)
The map on the right shades by median house prices.
Very different maps. That's the problem with council tax.
The map on the right shades by median house prices.
Very different maps. That's the problem with council tax.
I'm joining an FT Budget webinar this Friday lunchtime
Budget happiness 100% guaranteed, or your money back.
(Okay, it's free, whether or not you're an FT subscriber. Registration: buff.ly/JqTpKLx )
Budget happiness 100% guaranteed, or your money back.
(Okay, it's free, whether or not you're an FT subscriber. Registration: buff.ly/JqTpKLx )
November 25, 2025 at 10:33 AM
I'm joining an FT Budget webinar this Friday lunchtime
Budget happiness 100% guaranteed, or your money back.
(Okay, it's free, whether or not you're an FT subscriber. Registration: buff.ly/JqTpKLx )
Budget happiness 100% guaranteed, or your money back.
(Okay, it's free, whether or not you're an FT subscriber. Registration: buff.ly/JqTpKLx )
I'm joining an FT Budget webinar this Friday lunchtime
Budget happiness 100% guaranteed, or your money back.
(Okay, it's free, whether or not you're an FT subscriber. Registration: buff.ly/JqTpKLx )
Budget happiness 100% guaranteed, or your money back.
(Okay, it's free, whether or not you're an FT subscriber. Registration: buff.ly/JqTpKLx )
November 25, 2025 at 10:31 AM
I'm joining an FT Budget webinar this Friday lunchtime
Budget happiness 100% guaranteed, or your money back.
(Okay, it's free, whether or not you're an FT subscriber. Registration: buff.ly/JqTpKLx )
Budget happiness 100% guaranteed, or your money back.
(Okay, it's free, whether or not you're an FT subscriber. Registration: buff.ly/JqTpKLx )
These reports the Government could revalue council tax bands F, G and H don't make sense to me. Here's what could actually be going on:
November 25, 2025 at 9:31 AM
These reports the Government could revalue council tax bands F, G and H don't make sense to me. Here's what could actually be going on:
What's happened to council tax over the last 30 years? Has it really doubled?
Yes. Here's how, and here's why: buff.ly/7HSGJij
Yes. Here's how, and here's why: buff.ly/7HSGJij
Has council tax really gone up? The evidence.
We strip out inflation to show how UK council tax has changed in real terms, and explain how funding cuts and social care drove the rise.
buff.ly
November 24, 2025 at 3:21 PM
What's happened to council tax over the last 30 years? Has it really doubled?
Yes. Here's how, and here's why: buff.ly/7HSGJij
Yes. Here's how, and here's why: buff.ly/7HSGJij
In case you missed it: our investigation into how Sky Bet relocated to Malta to avoid £55m of tax/year This kind of thing is often reported as "perfectly proper, and there's no suggestion that any laws were broken".
But here it looks improper. Laws may have been broken.
🧵
But here it looks improper. Laws may have been broken.
🧵
November 23, 2025 at 9:34 AM
In case you missed it: our investigation into how Sky Bet relocated to Malta to avoid £55m of tax/year This kind of thing is often reported as "perfectly proper, and there's no suggestion that any laws were broken".
But here it looks improper. Laws may have been broken.
🧵
But here it looks improper. Laws may have been broken.
🧵
Hope HMRC are investigating whether Gill evaded tax on the bribes he received.
(Bribes are absolutely taxable income, but people tend not to declare them to HMRC...)
(Bribes are absolutely taxable income, but people tend not to declare them to HMRC...)
November 22, 2025 at 2:59 PM
Hope HMRC are investigating whether Gill evaded tax on the bribes he received.
(Bribes are absolutely taxable income, but people tend not to declare them to HMRC...)
(Bribes are absolutely taxable income, but people tend not to declare them to HMRC...)
These "property gurus" charge people a fortune for terrible advice. Here's Samuel Leeds selling a series of tax ideas that don't work. Clueless.
And here's an actual tax adviser explaining why they fail: buff.ly/2hyertH
And here's an actual tax adviser explaining why they fail: buff.ly/2hyertH
November 22, 2025 at 9:34 AM
These "property gurus" charge people a fortune for terrible advice. Here's Samuel Leeds selling a series of tax ideas that don't work. Clueless.
And here's an actual tax adviser explaining why they fail: buff.ly/2hyertH
And here's an actual tax adviser explaining why they fail: buff.ly/2hyertH
New investigation: how Sky Bet relocated to Malta to avoid £55m of tax/year This kind of tax planning is often reported as "clever, but perfectly proper, and there's no suggestion that any laws were broken".
But here it looks improper. Laws may have been broken.
🧵
But here it looks improper. Laws may have been broken.
🧵
November 19, 2025 at 9:19 AM
New investigation: how Sky Bet relocated to Malta to avoid £55m of tax/year This kind of tax planning is often reported as "clever, but perfectly proper, and there's no suggestion that any laws were broken".
But here it looks improper. Laws may have been broken.
🧵
But here it looks improper. Laws may have been broken.
🧵
Our new report on Sky Bet's relocation to Malta. Full details of what we think they did, whether it was legal, and how HMRC and the Government could stop it: taxpolicy.org.uk/2025/11/18/s...
Betting on tax avoidance - is Sky Bet avoiding £55m tax per year?
ITV News has just published an investigation: gambling company Sky Bet has migrated its business to Malta to avoid around £55m of tax each year. We provided technical support for the investigation…
taxpolicy.org.uk
November 18, 2025 at 5:44 PM
Our new report on Sky Bet's relocation to Malta. Full details of what we think they did, whether it was legal, and how HMRC and the Government could stop it: taxpolicy.org.uk/2025/11/18/s...
If you have any time on your hands (given half the internet is down), and an interest in tax, law or webdesign, we've just redesigned the Tax Policy Associates website.
Any and all feedback gratefully received!
buff.ly/1Avp5U4
Any and all feedback gratefully received!
buff.ly/1Avp5U4
Tax Policy Associates - the independent tax think tank
A think tank dedicated to improving tax policy and the public understanding of tax
taxpolicy.org.uk
November 18, 2025 at 2:21 PM
If you have any time on your hands (given half the internet is down), and an interest in tax, law or webdesign, we've just redesigned the Tax Policy Associates website.
Any and all feedback gratefully received!
buff.ly/1Avp5U4
Any and all feedback gratefully received!
buff.ly/1Avp5U4