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Das Doak

Das Doak

@dasdoak.bsky.social

790 followers 790 following 7.4K posts

Gentleman adventurer, mostly decent bastard, only slightly pessimistic optimist. I ride bikes, tinker, program, and read way too much. White, cis, straight, US male if you need the context. It's a fucked demographic; wasn't my choice to be born into it.

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Das Doak @dasdoak.bsky.social · Nov 7

Here's what Democrats should do - as a minimum - to help fix the media ecosystem:

Start a newspaper in every single congressional district - yes, all 435 of them - called "The <name of geographic area> Democrat." It can literally be the district number if there's nothing better to hand. (1/7)

Reposted by Das Doak

Mike Masnick @mmasnick.bsky.social · 2h

Looks like this is real. About 40% of the flight at 8k feet, then bumped up to 10k, and then finally went up higher, but only to 20k feet. Much slower than normal flight and likely burned a lot more fuel. But the view out the window was probably impressive.

www.flightaware.com/live/flight/...

Das Doak @dasdoak.bsky.social · 2h

This really isn't something we consider at all after decades of fighting insurgents, but actual peer conflicts are an absolute meat grinder.

Dr. Samantha Hancox-Li @sjshancoxli.liberalcurrents.com · 3h

o'brien's latest is mid (very unfortunately) but even amidst that midness has an astoundingly important insight i see adopted almost nowhere else: in most modern wars, the pre-war army is totally consumed within a few months of hostilities--

www.amazon.com/War-Power-Wh...

War and Power: Who Wins Wars―and Why

War and Power: Who Wins Wars―and Why [O'Brien, Phillips Payson] on Amazon.com. *FREE* shipping on qualifying offers. War and Power: Who Wins Wars―and Why

Reposted by Das Doak

Ariella Elm @ariellaelm.bsky.social · 3h

On the eve of her retirement, I want to make sure to honor @pelosi.house.gov
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Das Doak @dasdoak.bsky.social · 4h

Even changing consumer preferences still translate into a feeling of increased costs for people further down the ladder, because today's new cars are next year's used cars.

Graph of the price index from FRED of consumer price index for used cars and trucks specifically.

Das Doak @dasdoak.bsky.social · 11h

Except it doesn't make sense to separate out the working stiff homeowner from the petit bourgeois investor because both have the same incentives to encourage home prices to continue rising.

Das Doak @dasdoak.bsky.social · 11h

Doing nothing but looking at data can make you kinda stupid; you also need to think about the median person's experience of life, and Will seems to generally be pretty bad at that.

Das Doak @dasdoak.bsky.social · 11h

They're ~65% of the US population. That's not just "petty gentry" - it's a far larger class.

Das Doak @dasdoak.bsky.social · 11h

The point Stancil is making - correctly - is that *everyone* is better off in aggregate; incomes and purchasing power *did* rise for almost everyone during COVID.

My point is that it didn't feel like that because some key markers of middle class rose in price faster.

Das Doak @dasdoak.bsky.social · 11h

And it's worth noting that, while this increase in prices leads to YIMBYism and developmentalism among the people who don't own housing, it leads to the opposite among people who do, and whose net worth is tied up in their homes, and that class has *much* more political power.

Das Doak @dasdoak.bsky.social · 11h

Except I'm not trying to make the point that this leads to populism; I'm making the point that this leads people to feel less well-off in spite of the fact that, by other measures, they *are* better-off.

Das Doak @dasdoak.bsky.social · 11h

Yes, obviously, which is why the fact that the assets required to enter that privileged group are becoming much more expensive is a source of unrest.

Das Doak @dasdoak.bsky.social · 11h

Being on the wrong end of that redistribution is a great way to feel like shit is going very wrong, particularly because the people on the not-wrong-end are a much smaller group.

At any rate, that doesn't change my basic point that certain classes of assets have clearly become more expensive.

Das Doak @dasdoak.bsky.social · 12h

That's because the data for the entirety of the market is really quite stable - most people are still paying mortgages they signed a very long time ago. The rental price data is much more reflective of "instantaneous" home prices, and that's jumped from ~5% of net spending to ~7%.

Das Doak @dasdoak.bsky.social · 12h

And, of course, this leaves off the third leg of "the good life" - a higher education.

Younger generations being confronted by an economy that only offers luxury options are doing so with much more debt straight out of the gate than their parents.

Graph of the inflation-adjusted tuition and fees at public 4-year institutions.

Das Doak @dasdoak.bsky.social · 12h

And, to be fair, this is in large part because modern houses and cars are *huge* - you can argue that you're getting more for your money.

...but that's part of the problem, because "economy" options are being eliminated for people who're at the base of the income ladder.

Das Doak @dasdoak.bsky.social · 12h

While Stancil is right about this *overall* I think it's relevant that the two key elements of the American Dream - cars and houses - have gotten *much* more expensive, leading younger generations to feel worse-off than their parents, even though their purchasing power is, on net, higher.

Graph of Case-Shiller Home Price Index divided by CPI.

https://www.longtermtrends.net/home-price-vs-inflation/

Screenshot from this Jalopnik article: https://www.jalopnik.com/2018271/average-new-car-cost-2000-vs-2025/

Text as follows: "The year 2000 was 25 years ago. If that sounds surprising because you keep referencing 2000 as "a few years back," stop holding your phone at arm's length and just buy some reading glasses already. Also, you're going to want to sit down. Not because your back probably hurts, but because this news will hurt more: Kelley Blue Book says the average new-car price is $50,080, the first time it's ever exceeded $50,000.

In 2000, the average new-car price was an estimated $20,356, according to a February 2001 study by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. And before you think inflation accounts for the cost difference, adjusting that 2000 amount into today's dollars gets us $38,395. Where's the extra 12 grand going? The 2025 cars don't come with suitcases of cash in the trunk."

Das Doak @dasdoak.bsky.social · 14h

"found myself giving the implacable TV a rather loud tutorial" is going into my list of delightfully euphemistic phrases.

Das Doak @dasdoak.bsky.social · 16h

But, of course, that would call for collective action, wouldn't involve cool personal property, and would require having two brain cells to rub together, so it isn't happening and instead we get to see the billionaire class hasten our collective doom through their abysmal waste of resources.

Das Doak @dasdoak.bsky.social · 16h

"Apocalypse bunkers" are based on the very dumb premise of "how do I preserve my wealth, comfort, and security if society collapses?"

It's very dumb because billionaires only have wealth, comfort, and security in *this* society, and every penny would be better-spent keeping it from collapsing.

Das Doak @dasdoak.bsky.social · 18h

I'd say that, in most of our existing urban areas in the US, we should make squares and plazas a component of parks, just because there's no other available public space in most US cities, and most modern US parks are very underused, which is part of their lack of appeal.

Das Doak @dasdoak.bsky.social · 20h

Ok, scratch everything I've said about Schumer actually being somewhat clever of late; apparently the only reason his incompetence hasn't been on public display is because the *rest of the caucus* is able to shame him into not behaving like an idiot.

He *really* needs to go.

Why Does Schumer Keep Trying to Cave? - The American Prospect

Most commentators, including me, concluded that the Tuesday election victory saved Democrats from capitulating to Republican demands to pass a simple continuing resolution to re-open the government, i...

Das Doak @dasdoak.bsky.social · 22h

That's possibly the most damage inflicted by a pre-dreadnought ramming attack.

And, yes, I'm calling that a ramming; it clearly is the hull of one ship striking another. There's nothing in the rules that says the bit of the hull performing the ramming needs to be attached to the rest of the ship.

Reposted by Das Doak

Justin Wolfers @justinwolfers.bsky.social · 1d

Trump's tariffs are hurting us in two ways:

First, the obvious: Higher costs → either lower profits or higher prices.

Second, more subtle (perhaps bigger): We’ve signaled we’re an unreliable partner, so allies are reorganizing supply chains to avoid us. That's hard to unwind.

Das Doak @dasdoak.bsky.social · 23h

Once again, we *really* need people to crack down on the truly insane ecosystem of scams we're all swimming in every day. The fact that these guys do this in the open without fear of punishment for IMPERSONATING POLICE OFFICERS is a *huge* problem.

Das Doak @dasdoak.bsky.social · 23h

Just got a call from the Jury Duty Fee Scammers.

These guys are dumb - they called me on a Saturday when I *know* that the Sheriff's office is closed, and they gave me an address I haven't lived at for twenty years, and the guy on the phone had the most complete lack of "cop voice" I've ever heard.