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David Macdonald @davidmaccdn.bsky.social · Aug 21

We set it at 5km radius in urban areas or 10km in rural. That's about 2 to 3 times further than the closest public school so its a generous "nearby"

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David Macdonald @davidmaccdn.bsky.social · Aug 21

Read the full report here: www.policyalternatives.ca/news-researc...

Cash cow: Assessing child care space creation progress - CCPA

Canada’s $10-a-day child care program isn't creating enough spaces to meet demand and isn't doing enough to make sure that new spaces are non-profit

www.policyalternatives.ca

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David Macdonald @davidmaccdn.bsky.social · Aug 21

Now that fees are falling fast, the real challenge is public space creation. Without strong public planning, for-profits will keep expanding in the easiest places—not where children actually live. We need much more proactive planning to hit the targets and do it with non-profit spaces. (8/10)

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David Macdonald @davidmaccdn.bsky.social · Aug 21

Many cities still struggle badly:
• 75% of kids in Kitchener, Oshawa, Fort McMurray live in child care deserts
• Calgary: half of kids in deserts,
• Quebec cities & Charlottetown are near universal access
Find your city in this interactive map: www.policyalternatives.ca/news-researc...
(7/10)

Childcare deserts in Canada: find where your community fits in 2025 - CCPA

Canada’s federal child care program, which began rolling out in 2021, has two main goals: lower fees to $10 per day per child, and expand the amount of space available in licensed childcare facilities...

www.policyalternatives.ca

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David Macdonald @davidmaccdn.bsky.social · Aug 21

The program was supposed to grow public and non-profit child care. Instead, it’s become a cash cow for private operators who dominate the growth:
• 57% of new spaces since 2022 are for-profit
• Only 30% are non-profit or public (6/10)

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David Macdonald @davidmaccdn.bsky.social · Aug 21

But the real issue isn’t just how many spaces are created—it’s whether parents can find one. The federal benchmark is 5.9 spaces per 10 children. Only Quebec and PEI are already there. Many provinces won’t hit it, even if they hit their space creation targets (which many won’t). (5/10)

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David Macdonald @davidmaccdn.bsky.social · Aug 21

That being said, child care deserts—blocks with almost no nearby child care spaces—are shrinking, but still widespread. BC, Alb, Sask, NL, Ontario have all rapidly reduced the number of kids living in child care deserts 4/10

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David Macdonald @davidmaccdn.bsky.social · Aug 21

Overachievers who are above their space creation targets: NB, BC & PEI
Already have decent coverage: Quebec and PEI
Strugglers: MB, NS & SK: only a fraction of their goals
Progress is uneven—and often behind. (3/10)

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David Macdonald @davidmaccdn.bsky.social · Aug 21

The fed’s goal isn’t just $10-a-day fees by 2026—it’s also 210K new full-time child care spaces by April 2025. So far, provinces are short 57,030 spaces. Some prov are on target or ahead. Others are far behind. (2/10)

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David Macdonald @davidmaccdn.bsky.social · Aug 21

Canada’s $10-a-day child care program is cutting fees—but is it creating enough spaces? My new report from @policyalternatives.ca shows big promises, mixed results, and a growing role for for-profit care. Here’s what the data tells us🧵👇👇👇

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David Macdonald @davidmaccdn.bsky.social · Jul 24

DND is exempt

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David Macdonald @davidmaccdn.bsky.social · Jul 24

So the point is that this will be a mindless chainsaw through services that Canadians rely on. All in trade for more defense spending and a tax cut. These are Trump-approved priorities when we need Canadian priorities. Here's the full analysis: 8/x www.policyalternatives.ca/news-researc...

A stiff price to pay: Predicting federal job losses due to Carney’s cuts - CCPA

The newly elected federal government has promised major military spending increases and tax cuts. To pay for it, the government is seeking 15 per cent in cuts across all federal departments except the...

www.policyalternatives.ca

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David Macdonald @davidmaccdn.bsky.social · Jul 24

While the service impacts will be country-wide the employment impacts will be biggest in #ottawa and #gatineau where over 24,000 jobs could be lost by 2028. Here's the projected impact by region 7/x www.datawrapper.de/_/jV9Lz/

Job losses by 2028, divided by geography | Created with Datawrapper

A regional breakdown of potential job losses due to coming federal cuts. The hardest-hit zone, by far, would be the National Capital Region of Ottawa-Gatineau, where nearly half of the total job loss...

www.datawrapper.de

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David Macdonald @davidmaccdn.bsky.social · Jul 24

Cutting that many people would almost certainly affect service levels. Folks will likely notice it in longer wait times on the phone to get help with your taxes. No help if your EI claim gets fouled up. Backlogs once again to get a passport. 6/x

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David Macdonald @davidmaccdn.bsky.social · Jul 24

These departments would see the highest cuts as they are service heavy departments. You need alot of people to process personal and biz tax returns, deal with missing transfer payments, help people get EI and their pension, as well as help people deal with passports and immigration issues. 5/x

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David Macdonald @davidmaccdn.bsky.social · Jul 24

Cuts would hit hardest at CRA, losing 14,300 FTEs, ESDC losing 4,200 and CIC losing 3,800. Those are the top 3 but you can see all the others (over 100 FTEs lost) if you click on this table 4/x www.datawrapper.de/_/4wfsN/

Table 1: Cumulative FTE losses by department | Created with Datawrapper

Explore this table to see possible projected job cuts in different federal departments. Cut projections are cumulative, meaning that they include numbers from previous years on the table rather than r...

www.datawrapper.de

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David Macdonald @davidmaccdn.bsky.social · Jul 24

The protected departments of DND, RCMP and CBSA will likely see no job losses. They actually saw some increases in staffing while other depts saw "refocusing" cuts. 3/x

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David Macdonald @davidmaccdn.bsky.social · Jul 24

The staff cuts have already started. The Carney cuts would be on top of the Trudeau cuts that were in Budget 2023 called "refocusing" gov. Those have already resulted in >10,000 lost FTEs this year. The "savings" from those cuts don't peak until next year (although I only include this years) 2/x

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David Macdonald @davidmaccdn.bsky.social · Jul 24

Of the cuts announced so far, staffing cuts will only make up about a quarter of the "savings". Over half of the "savings" is actually just cuts in transfers to another level of government, people (mostly Vets) or non-profits. Here's the breakdown of the envelope 2/x datawrapper.dwcdn.net/xzSL2/4/

Figure 1: Breakdown of cuts envelope, 2025-26

datawrapper.dwcdn.net

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David Macdonald @davidmaccdn.bsky.social · Jul 24

Now calculated potential staffing cuts from the fed public sector cuts announced in July. TLDR, they'll be big, probably over 57,000 by 2028-29. I got some good coverage in the @ottawacitizen.com but here are the brief details🧵👇👇 @policyalternatives.ca ottawacitizen.com/public-servi...

Ottawa and Gatineau will 'bear the brunt' of public service cuts: report

A new analysis finds the government could cut the equivalent of more than 24,000 full-time jobs in the National Capital Region.

ottawacitizen.com

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David Macdonald @davidmaccdn.bsky.social · Jul 22

We need more museums, more galleries, more CBC and more Via Rail...not less. Yet these cuts threaten to erase all the campaign promises and put all the crown corps in a worse place. Somehow this didn’t make it into the election debates. 6/x

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David Macdonald @davidmaccdn.bsky.social · Jul 22

This summer Cdns can use the “Canada Strong Pass” to visit national museums and galleries at reduced admission. Too bad those same museums and galleries are facing a cut of $43 mil a year due to the Carney cuts. 5/x

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David Macdonald @davidmaccdn.bsky.social · Jul 22

Via Rail is also on the chopping block. The 2024 fed budget scheduled an extra $85 mil on Via Rail, but the Carney cuts would demand $90 mil back in 28-29. Just like the CBC its 1 step forward 2 steps back. 4/x

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David Macdonald @davidmaccdn.bsky.social · Jul 22

The CBC could be forced to cut back $214 mil/yr. Incredibly the Liberal platform promised $150 mil more a year to CBC, but now the Carney cuts promise to take all that away and then some. 3/x

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David Macdonald @davidmaccdn.bsky.social · Jul 22

The CMHC could be forced to cut $955 mil. The mortgage insurance side is unaffected as its self funded. But CMHC administers over $6 bil in affordable housing for the feds. A big part is for Indigenous housing, which might see a $ billion in cuts 2/x

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