dolphin_dane
@dolphindane.bsky.social
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dolphin_dane
@dolphindane.bsky.social
· May 12
The Big #Eurovision Prediction Survey 2025 - Post-Rehearsal Results
The final forecast is ready! I have once again partnered with ESC Insight to reveal the results - go check out our article, and then come back here to see detailed results for each entry! 🧵 escinsight.com/2025/05/12/a...
The final forecast is ready! I have once again partnered with ESC Insight to reveal the results - go check out our article, and then come back here to see detailed results for each entry! 🧵 escinsight.com/2025/05/12/a...
Reposted by dolphin_dane
EUROVISION 2026 ALLOCATION DRAW CHEAT SHEET 📊 🇪🇺
Based on analysis of all voting between 2014 and 2025, this chart shows the average televoting/jury bias between each pair of countries. The left shows the country being voted on, and the top the country voting
Based on analysis of all voting between 2014 and 2025, this chart shows the average televoting/jury bias between each pair of countries. The left shows the country being voted on, and the top the country voting
January 11, 2026 at 9:35 PM
EUROVISION 2026 ALLOCATION DRAW CHEAT SHEET 📊 🇪🇺
Based on analysis of all voting between 2014 and 2025, this chart shows the average televoting/jury bias between each pair of countries. The left shows the country being voted on, and the top the country voting
Based on analysis of all voting between 2014 and 2025, this chart shows the average televoting/jury bias between each pair of countries. The left shows the country being voted on, and the top the country voting
EUROVISION 2026 ALLOCATION DRAW CHEAT SHEET 📊 🇪🇺
Based on analysis of all voting between 2014 and 2025, this chart shows the average televoting/jury bias between each pair of countries. The left shows the country being voted on, and the top the country voting
Based on analysis of all voting between 2014 and 2025, this chart shows the average televoting/jury bias between each pair of countries. The left shows the country being voted on, and the top the country voting
January 11, 2026 at 9:35 PM
EUROVISION 2026 ALLOCATION DRAW CHEAT SHEET 📊 🇪🇺
Based on analysis of all voting between 2014 and 2025, this chart shows the average televoting/jury bias between each pair of countries. The left shows the country being voted on, and the top the country voting
Based on analysis of all voting between 2014 and 2025, this chart shows the average televoting/jury bias between each pair of countries. The left shows the country being voted on, and the top the country voting
Working on my 2026 allocation draw cheat sheet, and there are some combinations of the 35 participants where one hasn’t ranked the other at least one time from 2014-2025. Obviously almost all involve with Luxembourg, but one doesn’t involve them. Can you guess the combination?
January 11, 2026 at 8:24 PM
Working on my 2026 allocation draw cheat sheet, and there are some combinations of the 35 participants where one hasn’t ranked the other at least one time from 2014-2025. Obviously almost all involve with Luxembourg, but one doesn’t involve them. Can you guess the combination?
Currently the top 2 are TIED, with 3rd place only one point behind. Your votes an be decisive!
Last chance to send in your top 10 of entries from the 2015 national final season.
Survey closes 23:59 CET, with results being released soon after!
forms.gle/qhYCMCQNa7W4...
Survey closes 23:59 CET, with results being released soon after!
forms.gle/qhYCMCQNa7W4...
Eurovision 2015 NFTOP50
FORMULA CLOSES JUNE 30 23:59 CET
This is a form for submitting your top 10 of songs from the national finals of the Eurovision 2015 season.
Fill out your top 10 by selecting your song of choice for ea...
forms.gle
June 30, 2025 at 5:13 PM
Currently the top 2 are TIED, with 3rd place only one point behind. Your votes an be decisive!
Reposted by dolphin_dane
Last chance! Survey closes at 23:59 Central European Time tonight. This is a golden opportunity to showcase your Eurovision wisdom!
Introducing THE BIG EUROVISION PREDICTION SURVEY 2026 - PARTICIPANTS
With the 2025 season wrapped up it's time to look to 2026. Which countries will be taking part? With which artists? Send in your predictions now and prove your Eurovision wisdom for good! forms.gle/w9U9UDVZjXNb...
With the 2025 season wrapped up it's time to look to 2026. Which countries will be taking part? With which artists? Send in your predictions now and prove your Eurovision wisdom for good! forms.gle/w9U9UDVZjXNb...
June 30, 2025 at 10:24 AM
Last chance! Survey closes at 23:59 Central European Time tonight. This is a golden opportunity to showcase your Eurovision wisdom!
Last chance to send in your top 10 of entries from the 2015 national final season.
Survey closes 23:59 CET, with results being released soon after!
forms.gle/qhYCMCQNa7W4...
Survey closes 23:59 CET, with results being released soon after!
forms.gle/qhYCMCQNa7W4...
Eurovision 2015 NFTOP50
FORMULA CLOSES JUNE 30 23:59 CET
This is a form for submitting your top 10 of songs from the national finals of the Eurovision 2015 season.
Fill out your top 10 by selecting your song of choice for ea...
forms.gle
June 30, 2025 at 5:10 PM
Last chance to send in your top 10 of entries from the 2015 national final season.
Survey closes 23:59 CET, with results being released soon after!
forms.gle/qhYCMCQNa7W4...
Survey closes 23:59 CET, with results being released soon after!
forms.gle/qhYCMCQNa7W4...
Last chance! Survey closes at 23:59 Central European Time tonight. This is a golden opportunity to showcase your Eurovision wisdom!
Introducing THE BIG EUROVISION PREDICTION SURVEY 2026 - PARTICIPANTS
With the 2025 season wrapped up it's time to look to 2026. Which countries will be taking part? With which artists? Send in your predictions now and prove your Eurovision wisdom for good! forms.gle/w9U9UDVZjXNb...
With the 2025 season wrapped up it's time to look to 2026. Which countries will be taking part? With which artists? Send in your predictions now and prove your Eurovision wisdom for good! forms.gle/w9U9UDVZjXNb...
June 30, 2025 at 10:24 AM
Last chance! Survey closes at 23:59 Central European Time tonight. This is a golden opportunity to showcase your Eurovision wisdom!
Introducing THE BIG EUROVISION PREDICTION SURVEY 2026 - PARTICIPANTS
With the 2025 season wrapped up it's time to look to 2026. Which countries will be taking part? With which artists? Send in your predictions now and prove your Eurovision wisdom for good! forms.gle/w9U9UDVZjXNb...
With the 2025 season wrapped up it's time to look to 2026. Which countries will be taking part? With which artists? Send in your predictions now and prove your Eurovision wisdom for good! forms.gle/w9U9UDVZjXNb...
June 7, 2025 at 9:03 AM
Introducing THE BIG EUROVISION PREDICTION SURVEY 2026 - PARTICIPANTS
With the 2025 season wrapped up it's time to look to 2026. Which countries will be taking part? With which artists? Send in your predictions now and prove your Eurovision wisdom for good! forms.gle/w9U9UDVZjXNb...
With the 2025 season wrapped up it's time to look to 2026. Which countries will be taking part? With which artists? Send in your predictions now and prove your Eurovision wisdom for good! forms.gle/w9U9UDVZjXNb...
Just compared the Qual. chances forecast by my April and May models with their contemporary odds, as well as the final odds. Turns out, while the May model outperformed the bookmakers the April model was even more accurate providing more accurate chances for EVERY SINGLE ENTRY than contemporary odds
May 13, 2025 at 10:17 PM
Just compared the Qual. chances forecast by my April and May models with their contemporary odds, as well as the final odds. Turns out, while the May model outperformed the bookmakers the April model was even more accurate providing more accurate chances for EVERY SINGLE ENTRY than contemporary odds
How is running order impacting your #Eurovision favourite's chances? Due to recency bias televoters are more prone to vote for songs they saw the latest. In fact the difference between the songs performing 2nd and last is a full 15% of the rating scale. See my full estimates here
May 13, 2025 at 12:34 PM
How is running order impacting your #Eurovision favourite's chances? Due to recency bias televoters are more prone to vote for songs they saw the latest. In fact the difference between the songs performing 2nd and last is a full 15% of the rating scale. See my full estimates here
The Big #Eurovision Prediction Survey 2025 - Post-Rehearsal Results
The final forecast is ready! I have once again partnered with ESC Insight to reveal the results - go check out our article, and then come back here to see detailed results for each entry! 🧵 escinsight.com/2025/05/12/a...
The final forecast is ready! I have once again partnered with ESC Insight to reveal the results - go check out our article, and then come back here to see detailed results for each entry! 🧵 escinsight.com/2025/05/12/a...
May 12, 2025 at 8:20 PM
The Big #Eurovision Prediction Survey 2025 - Post-Rehearsal Results
The final forecast is ready! I have once again partnered with ESC Insight to reveal the results - go check out our article, and then come back here to see detailed results for each entry! 🧵 escinsight.com/2025/05/12/a...
The final forecast is ready! I have once again partnered with ESC Insight to reveal the results - go check out our article, and then come back here to see detailed results for each entry! 🧵 escinsight.com/2025/05/12/a...
And we're CLOSED
Thank you so much to all 146 of you who filled out the survey! We managed to get more than 50% of the responses of the pre-rehearsal version, despite only being open a fraction of the time
Simulations will now begin, and results will be published ASAP. Thank you!
Thank you so much to all 146 of you who filled out the survey! We managed to get more than 50% of the responses of the pre-rehearsal version, despite only being open a fraction of the time
Simulations will now begin, and results will be published ASAP. Thank you!
Rehearsals finished, it's time to get your predictions in for The Big Eurovision Prediction Survey, Post-Rehearsal Speed Edition! Predict jury and tele potential of each entry, and I simulate the contest 100000 times to see the results. Closes 23:59 Sunday forms.gle/N5PaqrHKrzmq...
May 11, 2025 at 10:09 PM
And we're CLOSED
Thank you so much to all 146 of you who filled out the survey! We managed to get more than 50% of the responses of the pre-rehearsal version, despite only being open a fraction of the time
Simulations will now begin, and results will be published ASAP. Thank you!
Thank you so much to all 146 of you who filled out the survey! We managed to get more than 50% of the responses of the pre-rehearsal version, despite only being open a fraction of the time
Simulations will now begin, and results will be published ASAP. Thank you!
At 90+ responses now, immensely grateful to everyone who filled the survey out so far! 🙏 Let’s get it into triple digits! Any reposts are hugely appreciated. Remember, the survey closes at midnight!
Rehearsals finished, it's time to get your predictions in for The Big Eurovision Prediction Survey, Post-Rehearsal Speed Edition! Predict jury and tele potential of each entry, and I simulate the contest 100000 times to see the results. Closes 23:59 Sunday forms.gle/N5PaqrHKrzmq...
May 11, 2025 at 4:06 PM
At 90+ responses now, immensely grateful to everyone who filled the survey out so far! 🙏 Let’s get it into triple digits! Any reposts are hugely appreciated. Remember, the survey closes at midnight!
Reposted by dolphin_dane
Rehearsals finished, it's time to get your predictions in for The Big Eurovision Prediction Survey, Post-Rehearsal Speed Edition! Predict jury and tele potential of each entry, and I simulate the contest 100000 times to see the results. Closes 23:59 Sunday forms.gle/N5PaqrHKrzmq...
May 10, 2025 at 9:03 PM
Rehearsals finished, it's time to get your predictions in for The Big Eurovision Prediction Survey, Post-Rehearsal Speed Edition! Predict jury and tele potential of each entry, and I simulate the contest 100000 times to see the results. Closes 23:59 Sunday forms.gle/N5PaqrHKrzmq...
THINK YOU'RE A EUROVISION EXPERT?
This is your chance to prove it! Fill out your predictions of how each entry will do in the televote and jury. Once the contest is over, I calculate which respondent made the most accurate predictions of all. Try it now, it only takes 5 minutes!
This is your chance to prove it! Fill out your predictions of how each entry will do in the televote and jury. Once the contest is over, I calculate which respondent made the most accurate predictions of all. Try it now, it only takes 5 minutes!
Rehearsals finished, it's time to get your predictions in for The Big Eurovision Prediction Survey, Post-Rehearsal Speed Edition! Predict jury and tele potential of each entry, and I simulate the contest 100000 times to see the results. Closes 23:59 Sunday forms.gle/N5PaqrHKrzmq...
May 11, 2025 at 8:57 AM
THINK YOU'RE A EUROVISION EXPERT?
This is your chance to prove it! Fill out your predictions of how each entry will do in the televote and jury. Once the contest is over, I calculate which respondent made the most accurate predictions of all. Try it now, it only takes 5 minutes!
This is your chance to prove it! Fill out your predictions of how each entry will do in the televote and jury. Once the contest is over, I calculate which respondent made the most accurate predictions of all. Try it now, it only takes 5 minutes!
Reposted by dolphin_dane
With the survey closing tomorrow evening, there is much less time to gather respondents than the previous edition. With that in mind, any help sharing the survey and getting it to as many people as possible is greatly appreciated. Let's piece together our collective wisdom! 🙏
Rehearsals finished, it's time to get your predictions in for The Big Eurovision Prediction Survey, Post-Rehearsal Speed Edition! Predict jury and tele potential of each entry, and I simulate the contest 100000 times to see the results. Closes 23:59 Sunday forms.gle/N5PaqrHKrzmq...
May 10, 2025 at 9:10 PM
With the survey closing tomorrow evening, there is much less time to gather respondents than the previous edition. With that in mind, any help sharing the survey and getting it to as many people as possible is greatly appreciated. Let's piece together our collective wisdom! 🙏
Very early days, but already some clear winners and losers of the rehearsal are materializing. Can't wait to share all details with you! Make sure to get your own predictions in as soon as possible!
Rehearsals finished, it's time to get your predictions in for The Big Eurovision Prediction Survey, Post-Rehearsal Speed Edition! Predict jury and tele potential of each entry, and I simulate the contest 100000 times to see the results. Closes 23:59 Sunday forms.gle/N5PaqrHKrzmq...
May 10, 2025 at 9:45 PM
Very early days, but already some clear winners and losers of the rehearsal are materializing. Can't wait to share all details with you! Make sure to get your own predictions in as soon as possible!
With the survey closing tomorrow evening, there is much less time to gather respondents than the previous edition. With that in mind, any help sharing the survey and getting it to as many people as possible is greatly appreciated. Let's piece together our collective wisdom! 🙏
Rehearsals finished, it's time to get your predictions in for The Big Eurovision Prediction Survey, Post-Rehearsal Speed Edition! Predict jury and tele potential of each entry, and I simulate the contest 100000 times to see the results. Closes 23:59 Sunday forms.gle/N5PaqrHKrzmq...
May 10, 2025 at 9:10 PM
With the survey closing tomorrow evening, there is much less time to gather respondents than the previous edition. With that in mind, any help sharing the survey and getting it to as many people as possible is greatly appreciated. Let's piece together our collective wisdom! 🙏
Rehearsals finished, it's time to get your predictions in for The Big Eurovision Prediction Survey, Post-Rehearsal Speed Edition! Predict jury and tele potential of each entry, and I simulate the contest 100000 times to see the results. Closes 23:59 Sunday forms.gle/N5PaqrHKrzmq...
May 10, 2025 at 9:03 PM
Rehearsals finished, it's time to get your predictions in for The Big Eurovision Prediction Survey, Post-Rehearsal Speed Edition! Predict jury and tele potential of each entry, and I simulate the contest 100000 times to see the results. Closes 23:59 Sunday forms.gle/N5PaqrHKrzmq...
EUROVISION 2025 SONGWRITER DEEP DIVE 🇪🇺📊🕸️
With less than a week to go, it's time to take a look at the teams behind each participating song. While some songs consist of brand new teams, others have 100+ entries across their writers. Let's go! (A thread 🧵)
With less than a week to go, it's time to take a look at the teams behind each participating song. While some songs consist of brand new teams, others have 100+ entries across their writers. Let's go! (A thread 🧵)
May 10, 2025 at 11:02 AM
EUROVISION 2025 SONGWRITER DEEP DIVE 🇪🇺📊🕸️
With less than a week to go, it's time to take a look at the teams behind each participating song. While some songs consist of brand new teams, others have 100+ entries across their writers. Let's go! (A thread 🧵)
With less than a week to go, it's time to take a look at the teams behind each participating song. While some songs consist of brand new teams, others have 100+ entries across their writers. Let's go! (A thread 🧵)
Eurovision 2025 - Is the artist listed in the songwriting credits or not?
Source: Official album and website
Source: Official album and website
April 19, 2025 at 1:45 PM
Eurovision 2025 - Is the artist listed in the songwriting credits or not?
Source: Official album and website
Source: Official album and website
Been thinking about how the smoothed nature of the simulation average can be confusing, so decided to do some calculations and they gave me this results. While less reflective of the totality of simulations it looks much more like how final splits usually look. What do you think?
April 18, 2025 at 7:19 PM
Been thinking about how the smoothed nature of the simulation average can be confusing, so decided to do some calculations and they gave me this results. While less reflective of the totality of simulations it looks much more like how final splits usually look. What do you think?
Reposted by dolphin_dane
Ask a fan, get an option. Ask a few more. Put them all in a machine. Check it 100,000 times. And you find out who the community thinks will win Eurovision. Congrats to @dolphindane.bsky.social on a deep dive into the thoughts of the online Eurovision fans.
The Big Eurovision Prediction Survey 2025 - Results
The results of the model are finally out! I have partnered with ESC Insight to reveal the results - go check out our article, and then come back here to see detailed results for each entry! 🧵
escinsight.com/2025/04/08/w...
The results of the model are finally out! I have partnered with ESC Insight to reveal the results - go check out our article, and then come back here to see detailed results for each entry! 🧵
escinsight.com/2025/04/08/w...
What 100,000 Eurovision Simulations Tell Us About Basel
What happens when you simulate the Eurovision Song Contest to find out who could win in Basel? What happens when you simulate it 100,000 times? 'Dolphin' Dane Jørgensen surveys the fans and works thro...
escinsight.com
April 8, 2025 at 5:49 PM
Ask a fan, get an option. Ask a few more. Put them all in a machine. Check it 100,000 times. And you find out who the community thinks will win Eurovision. Congrats to @dolphindane.bsky.social on a deep dive into the thoughts of the online Eurovision fans.
Reposted by dolphin_dane
What happens when you simulate Eurovision to find out who could win in Basel? What happens when you simulate it 100,000 times? @dolphindane.bsky.social has surveyed the fans and worked through the statistics to find out who the community thinks will win in Basel. escinsight.com/2025/04/08/w...
What 100,000 Eurovision Simulations Tell Us About Basel
What happens when you simulate the Eurovision Song Contest to find out who could win in Basel? What happens when you simulate it 100,000 times? 'Dolphin' Dane Jørgensen surveys the fans and works thro...
escinsight.com
April 8, 2025 at 5:37 PM
What happens when you simulate Eurovision to find out who could win in Basel? What happens when you simulate it 100,000 times? @dolphindane.bsky.social has surveyed the fans and worked through the statistics to find out who the community thinks will win in Basel. escinsight.com/2025/04/08/w...