David Rossi
@drdjrossi.bsky.social
Forest Economist
Raleigh-Durham, NC
djranalytics.com
Raleigh-Durham, NC
djranalytics.com
From economist Devon Dartnell-current challenges depressing US timber markets: weak lumber prices + sluggish housing sector + high interest rates, declining domestic pulp demand & increased foreign production capacity, weak demand for residual chips from pulp manufacturers, higher forest mgmt costs.
February 6, 2026 at 3:17 PM
From economist Devon Dartnell-current challenges depressing US timber markets: weak lumber prices + sluggish housing sector + high interest rates, declining domestic pulp demand & increased foreign production capacity, weak demand for residual chips from pulp manufacturers, higher forest mgmt costs.
From the NAHB: "the 10yr Treasury rate at the beginning of 2026 was at 4.1%. The rate has now increased to 4.3%. This unfortunately means the beneficial impact of the $200 bil. of additional acquisition of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac MBS...has been partially offset by international concerns."
February 5, 2026 at 3:11 PM
From the NAHB: "the 10yr Treasury rate at the beginning of 2026 was at 4.1%. The rate has now increased to 4.3%. This unfortunately means the beneficial impact of the $200 bil. of additional acquisition of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac MBS...has been partially offset by international concerns."
Retail sales of building materials and garden equipment expanded rapidly during the pandemic by 13.1% in 2020 and 14.3% in 2021 (reaching a peak of $508.4 bil. in 2022). Annual sales have remained elevated totaling $488.5 bil. in 2024. Thru Nov. it was on pace to decline 0.9% in 2025 to $484.0 bil.
February 3, 2026 at 4:32 PM
Retail sales of building materials and garden equipment expanded rapidly during the pandemic by 13.1% in 2020 and 14.3% in 2021 (reaching a peak of $508.4 bil. in 2022). Annual sales have remained elevated totaling $488.5 bil. in 2024. Thru Nov. it was on pace to decline 0.9% in 2025 to $484.0 bil.
Preliminary data from the December PPI report shows that softwood lumber prices were down 8.2% Y/Y while hardwood lumber prices were up 6.1%. Large Y/Y declines were observed for some paper/board products, including wood pulp and hardboard/particleboard/fiberboard. Timber/chip prices were flat Y/Y.
January 30, 2026 at 2:21 PM
Preliminary data from the December PPI report shows that softwood lumber prices were down 8.2% Y/Y while hardwood lumber prices were up 6.1%. Large Y/Y declines were observed for some paper/board products, including wood pulp and hardboard/particleboard/fiberboard. Timber/chip prices were flat Y/Y.
From Dr. Brent Sohngen: "Active Forests." A recent publication reports that "...since the turn of the century in the conterminous U.S., anthropogenic factors have contributed 55% of all carbon gain in forests while non-anthropogenic factors have provided the rest."
u.osu.edu/forest/2026/...
u.osu.edu/forest/2026/...
Active Forests | Global Forests
u.osu.edu
January 29, 2026 at 1:43 PM
From Dr. Brent Sohngen: "Active Forests." A recent publication reports that "...since the turn of the century in the conterminous U.S., anthropogenic factors have contributed 55% of all carbon gain in forests while non-anthropogenic factors have provided the rest."
u.osu.edu/forest/2026/...
u.osu.edu/forest/2026/...
Across the US Atlantic coast states, softwood timber utilization from 2020-2024 declined by 2.0%/yr. while hardwood timber utilization declined by 3.5%/yr. Much of the overall decline was driven by a 234 MMCF decrease in softwood pulpwood use. Softwood timber was ~84% of total utilization.
January 29, 2026 at 4:24 AM
Across the US Atlantic coast states, softwood timber utilization from 2020-2024 declined by 2.0%/yr. while hardwood timber utilization declined by 3.5%/yr. Much of the overall decline was driven by a 234 MMCF decrease in softwood pulpwood use. Softwood timber was ~84% of total utilization.
Mortgage rates followed the decline in 10yr yields over the last year, falling from 7% in mid-Jan 2025 to 6.1% this year. Strong economic growth was likely driving this trend, pulling down the deficit as a % of GDP. Tariff revenues stabilized deficit expansion, even as federal outlays grew in 2025.
January 28, 2026 at 2:40 AM
Mortgage rates followed the decline in 10yr yields over the last year, falling from 7% in mid-Jan 2025 to 6.1% this year. Strong economic growth was likely driving this trend, pulling down the deficit as a % of GDP. Tariff revenues stabilized deficit expansion, even as federal outlays grew in 2025.
The latest USFS data shows that annual softwood timber utilization by sawmills and veneer production facilities in NC declined 7% in 2024, while hardwood utilization by such mills expanded by 6%. Timber utilization by pulp, composite, and bioenergy facilities expanded by about 9% for all species.
January 22, 2026 at 2:34 PM
The latest USFS data shows that annual softwood timber utilization by sawmills and veneer production facilities in NC declined 7% in 2024, while hardwood utilization by such mills expanded by 6%. Timber utilization by pulp, composite, and bioenergy facilities expanded by about 9% for all species.
Latest PPI report showed a decline of nearly 7% in softwood lumber prices from Nov. 2024 to Nov. 2025. This is consistent with the year's housing trends and weak demand. Hardwood lumber prices grew 6% in the opposite direction on tight inventories while plywood prices were flat Y/Y.
January 14, 2026 at 3:27 PM
Latest PPI report showed a decline of nearly 7% in softwood lumber prices from Nov. 2024 to Nov. 2025. This is consistent with the year's housing trends and weak demand. Hardwood lumber prices grew 6% in the opposite direction on tight inventories while plywood prices were flat Y/Y.
Links to my research:
sites.google.com/view/david-j...
sites.google.com/view/david-j...
David J. Rossi, Ph.D.
David J. Rossi, Ph.D. Forest Economist Raleigh-Durham, NC
sites.google.com
January 6, 2026 at 1:31 AM
Links to my research:
sites.google.com/view/david-j...
sites.google.com/view/david-j...
Quarterly prices for sawmill & woodworking machinery were growing at an annual average pace of of 4.0%/yr. from 2015-2020. Prices have since grown at a faster pace of 7.5% since 2021. This year, prices for sawmill & woodworking machinery were up 6.7% through September.
December 30, 2025 at 7:55 PM
Quarterly prices for sawmill & woodworking machinery were growing at an annual average pace of of 4.0%/yr. from 2015-2020. Prices have since grown at a faster pace of 7.5% since 2021. This year, prices for sawmill & woodworking machinery were up 6.7% through September.
The top 5 Christmas tree producing states in 2022 were: Oregon, North Carolina, Michigan, Washington, and Pennsylvania. These states accounted for 79% of Christmas tree production that year, and represent about 52% of the total U.S. acreage devoted to the production of Christmas tress.
December 24, 2025 at 2:53 PM
The top 5 Christmas tree producing states in 2022 were: Oregon, North Carolina, Michigan, Washington, and Pennsylvania. These states accounted for 79% of Christmas tree production that year, and represent about 52% of the total U.S. acreage devoted to the production of Christmas tress.
The share of USFS fire management obligations devoted to suppression averaged 57% from 2016-2025. This percentage will be 100% in FY2026 under the current budget proposal, but accounting for reallocation of the Fuels budget to the new "Wildland Fire Service" in the DOI, the share is more like 93%.
December 16, 2025 at 9:53 PM
The share of USFS fire management obligations devoted to suppression averaged 57% from 2016-2025. This percentage will be 100% in FY2026 under the current budget proposal, but accounting for reallocation of the Fuels budget to the new "Wildland Fire Service" in the DOI, the share is more like 93%.
Wood chips can sometimes be a revenue stabilizer for sawmills when lumber prices decline. Y/Y inflation in sawmill wood chip prices averaged 2.8% from 2015-2024, while SW lumber price inflation averaged 5.1%. In 2025, chip prices grew 3.2% through September, but SW lumber prices fell 5.5%.
December 9, 2025 at 9:36 PM
Wood chips can sometimes be a revenue stabilizer for sawmills when lumber prices decline. Y/Y inflation in sawmill wood chip prices averaged 2.8% from 2015-2024, while SW lumber price inflation averaged 5.1%. In 2025, chip prices grew 3.2% through September, but SW lumber prices fell 5.5%.
There is an intuitive inverse relationship between employment and capital intensity in U.S. sawmills, but the trend is stark. The most recent available BLS data on capital intensity show that it grew by 1.6% in 2022, coinciding with a -0.6% contraction in sawmill employment that year.
December 6, 2025 at 3:15 PM
There is an intuitive inverse relationship between employment and capital intensity in U.S. sawmills, but the trend is stark. The most recent available BLS data on capital intensity show that it grew by 1.6% in 2022, coinciding with a -0.6% contraction in sawmill employment that year.
From 2022-2024, roundwood price inflation did not keep pace with the rising cost of logging equipment (tractors, dozers, log skidders, etc.). This trend has reversed in 2025. Year-over-year roundwood price inflation averaged 0.4% through September while logging equipment inflation averaged -3.9%.
December 5, 2025 at 12:37 AM
From 2022-2024, roundwood price inflation did not keep pace with the rising cost of logging equipment (tractors, dozers, log skidders, etc.). This trend has reversed in 2025. Year-over-year roundwood price inflation averaged 0.4% through September while logging equipment inflation averaged -3.9%.
Tech-driven economic growth has not yet pushed new housing activity below 4% of GDP. Fixed residential investment as a share of GDP is currently 4%, but it has fallen from an average of 4.8% in 2021. It sits between its pre-housing crisis share of 6.6% (2005) and its post-crisis low of 2.4% (2011).
December 1, 2025 at 4:05 PM
Tech-driven economic growth has not yet pushed new housing activity below 4% of GDP. Fixed residential investment as a share of GDP is currently 4%, but it has fallen from an average of 4.8% in 2021. It sits between its pre-housing crisis share of 6.6% (2005) and its post-crisis low of 2.4% (2011).
Dr. Jeff Reimer is quoted in this USA today article on the impacts of lumber tariffs under weak or slowing housing demand: "National forests face the hatchet as Trump administration boosts logging."
www.usatoday.com/story/news/n...
www.usatoday.com/story/news/n...
National forests face the hatchet as Trump administration boosts logging
A new policy opens 58% of U.S. national forests to logging by rolling back environmental protections.
www.usatoday.com
April 13, 2025 at 8:32 PM
Dr. Jeff Reimer is quoted in this USA today article on the impacts of lumber tariffs under weak or slowing housing demand: "National forests face the hatchet as Trump administration boosts logging."
www.usatoday.com/story/news/n...
www.usatoday.com/story/news/n...
From John Casey in the Georgia Forestry Magazine. "Market Dynamics in 2025: Georgia's Forest Industry Grows Amid Structural and Environmental Challenges."
digital-editions.todaymediacustom.com/georgia-fore...
digital-editions.todaymediacustom.com/georgia-fore...
Georgia Forestry - Issue 4 - Winter 2025
digital-editions.todaymediacustom.com
March 28, 2025 at 3:35 PM
From John Casey in the Georgia Forestry Magazine. "Market Dynamics in 2025: Georgia's Forest Industry Grows Amid Structural and Environmental Challenges."
digital-editions.todaymediacustom.com/georgia-fore...
digital-editions.todaymediacustom.com/georgia-fore...
From Dr. Andrew Muhammad on The Feed Science podcast: "Tariffs & U.S. Agriculture"
www.wisenetix.com/blog/Tariffs...
www.wisenetix.com/blog/Tariffs...
Dr. Andrew Muhammad: Tariffs & U.S. Agriculture | Ep. 89
In this special National Ag Day episode of The Feed Science Podcast Show, Dr. Andrew Muhammad, an agricultural trade economist, breaks down the complexities of global trade policies and what they mean...
www.wisenetix.com
March 15, 2025 at 12:42 PM
From Dr. Andrew Muhammad on The Feed Science podcast: "Tariffs & U.S. Agriculture"
www.wisenetix.com/blog/Tariffs...
www.wisenetix.com/blog/Tariffs...
From Dr. Brent Sohngen: "Where will the trees come from? How tariffs and new policies mean big changes on federal forests."
u.osu.edu/forest/2025/...
u.osu.edu/forest/2025/...
Where will the trees come from? How tariffs and new policies mean big changes on federal forests. | Global Forests
u.osu.edu
March 7, 2025 at 5:35 PM
From Dr. Brent Sohngen: "Where will the trees come from? How tariffs and new policies mean big changes on federal forests."
u.osu.edu/forest/2025/...
u.osu.edu/forest/2025/...
From Dr. Sonia Bruck:
"An assessment of appraisals for federal and state timber sales in Minnesota"
link.springer.com/article/10.1...
"An assessment of appraisals for federal and state timber sales in Minnesota"
link.springer.com/article/10.1...
An assessment of appraisals for federal and state timber sales in Minnesota, U.S.A. - Forest Science
The frequency of tracts of timber offered for sale that do not receive any bids, also known as no-bids, is a concern for public land managers. No-bids can delay forest management and result in lost re...
link.springer.com
March 6, 2025 at 3:23 PM
From Dr. Sonia Bruck:
"An assessment of appraisals for federal and state timber sales in Minnesota"
link.springer.com/article/10.1...
"An assessment of appraisals for federal and state timber sales in Minnesota"
link.springer.com/article/10.1...
My recent research collaboration with NCSU Forestry and Princeton's Andlinger Center for Energy and the Environment. "Assessing Carbon Emission Impacts of Forest-Based Bioenergy in the Southern U.S."
pubs.acs.org/doi/10.1021/...
pubs.acs.org/doi/10.1021/...
Assessing Carbon Emission Impacts of Forest-Based Bioenergy in the Southern U.S.
Carbon emissions accounting with forest-derived biomass energy is more complex than for waste or crop-residue biomass because carbon emissions and uptake occur over more heterogeneous landscapes and longer timeframes. To better understand climate impacts of forest bioenergy use, we develop a comprehensive framework for assessing the dynamic lifecycle greenhouse gas emissions for bioenergy projects using pine pulpwood feedstocks from managed forests in the U.S. South. We apply it in eight different forest basins to determine the carbon payback period and cumulative carbon storage for hypothetical bioenergy projects with 30-year plant operating lives (2030–2060). Variations in local forest types, age class distributions, and traditional wood product market demands result in large differences in carbon payback times between basins. In general, carbon debt repayment is faster for biofuel or bioelectricity projects that employ CCS than those that do not. We find that facilities employing CCS and consuming 3 million green tons of feedstock annually yield carbon payback periods below 10 years if located within pine-dominated coastal plain or gulf coast regions. In a hardwood-dominated basin such as in Virginia, carbon payback is not achieved.
pubs.acs.org
February 18, 2025 at 3:12 PM
My recent research collaboration with NCSU Forestry and Princeton's Andlinger Center for Energy and the Environment. "Assessing Carbon Emission Impacts of Forest-Based Bioenergy in the Southern U.S."
pubs.acs.org/doi/10.1021/...
pubs.acs.org/doi/10.1021/...
From Dr. Steve Buccola: a Kantian Interpretation of Mainstream Economics. #econsky
appliedecon.oregonstate.edu/appliedecon/...
appliedecon.oregonstate.edu/appliedecon/...
Just Released! How Economists Think: A Kantian Interpretation of Mainstream Economics by Steve Buccola
Bridging the gap between philosophy and economics, Professor Buccola's new book argues that modern mainstream economics is fundamentally Kantian. By exploring the connections between Kant's philosophy...
appliedecon.oregonstate.edu
December 28, 2024 at 7:51 PM
From Dr. Steve Buccola: a Kantian Interpretation of Mainstream Economics. #econsky
appliedecon.oregonstate.edu/appliedecon/...
appliedecon.oregonstate.edu/appliedecon/...
