Econ Yap
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An unfiltered look into The Economy.
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An FT-Booth survey of economists found 60% expect AI to lower PCE inflation and the neutral rate by under 0.2%.
The survey challenges Kevin Warsh’s claim that AI productivity will enable Federal Reserve rate cuts.
The survey challenges Kevin Warsh’s claim that AI productivity will enable Federal Reserve rate cuts.
Economists reject Kevin Warsh’s claim that AI boom will enable rate cuts
FT-Booth Survey shows scepticism of productivity gains forecast by Trump’s pick as next Fed chair
www.ft.com
February 8, 2026 at 3:01 PM
An FT-Booth survey of economists found 60% expect AI to lower PCE inflation and the neutral rate by under 0.2%.
The survey challenges Kevin Warsh’s claim that AI productivity will enable Federal Reserve rate cuts.
The survey challenges Kevin Warsh’s claim that AI productivity will enable Federal Reserve rate cuts.
Indian refiners avoid new Russian oil purchases for April delivery as the US and India advance talks on a trade pact.
www.reuters.com/busi...
www.reuters.com/busi...
February 8, 2026 at 2:12 PM
Indian refiners avoid new Russian oil purchases for April delivery as the US and India advance talks on a trade pact.
www.reuters.com/busi...
www.reuters.com/busi...
President Trump backed the Nexstar Media and Tegna merger to boost competition against national TV networks.
Nexstar proposed a $3.54 billion purchase last year.
The Federal Communications Commission will face Senate review Tuesday over 39% TV ownership caps.
www.reuters.com/busi...
Nexstar proposed a $3.54 billion purchase last year.
The Federal Communications Commission will face Senate review Tuesday over 39% TV ownership caps.
www.reuters.com/busi...
February 8, 2026 at 1:58 PM
President Trump backed the Nexstar Media and Tegna merger to boost competition against national TV networks.
Nexstar proposed a $3.54 billion purchase last year.
The Federal Communications Commission will face Senate review Tuesday over 39% TV ownership caps.
www.reuters.com/busi...
Nexstar proposed a $3.54 billion purchase last year.
The Federal Communications Commission will face Senate review Tuesday over 39% TV ownership caps.
www.reuters.com/busi...
The US and India released an interim trade framework and said they will negotiate a broader bilateral trade agreement.
India-US trade deal gives tariff-free access to Harley bikes, no reprieve for Tesla
India will slash tariffs on high-end American cars to 30% from as high as 110% and eliminate duties on Harley-Davidson bikes under an interim trade pact, an official said, but will not make concessions for electric vehicles, a move that pointedly leaves Tesla out.
www.reuters.com
February 8, 2026 at 1:35 PM
The US and India released an interim trade framework and said they will negotiate a broader bilateral trade agreement.
International Trade Administration data show visitors to the US fell 4.2% in 2025, while UN Tourism data show global travel rose 4%.
US Travel Association senior vice president Erik Hansen says the decline equals about 11 million fewer visitors and $50 billion in lost spending.
US Travel Association senior vice president Erik Hansen says the decline equals about 11 million fewer visitors and $50 billion in lost spending.
February 7, 2026 at 8:57 PM
International Trade Administration data show visitors to the US fell 4.2% in 2025, while UN Tourism data show global travel rose 4%.
US Travel Association senior vice president Erik Hansen says the decline equals about 11 million fewer visitors and $50 billion in lost spending.
US Travel Association senior vice president Erik Hansen says the decline equals about 11 million fewer visitors and $50 billion in lost spending.
Alan Murphy, CEO of Sea-Intelligence, said IMF 2026 GDP forecasts create a trade growth mirage as President Trump’s trade war distorts freight demand.
The IMF projects 3.3% growth from trade value, hiding weaker container volumes and pressure on freight markets.
The IMF projects 3.3% growth from trade value, hiding weaker container volumes and pressure on freight markets.
Trump's trade war creating economic 'mirage' with GDP forecasts, freight market disconnected: Shipping expert
Global economic growth forecasts are relatively optimistic for 2026, but a freight shipping expert says President Trump tariff's may be skewing the picture.
www.cnbc.com
February 7, 2026 at 8:18 PM
Alan Murphy, CEO of Sea-Intelligence, said IMF 2026 GDP forecasts create a trade growth mirage as President Trump’s trade war distorts freight demand.
The IMF projects 3.3% growth from trade value, hiding weaker container volumes and pressure on freight markets.
The IMF projects 3.3% growth from trade value, hiding weaker container volumes and pressure on freight markets.
The EU will seek a full ban on maritime services to ships carrying Russian crude with G7 backing.
European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen said the 20th sanctions package will cut energy revenue and add 20 Russian banks and 43 vessels with trade bans over €930 million.
European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen said the 20th sanctions package will cut energy revenue and add 20 Russian banks and 43 vessels with trade bans over €930 million.
February 7, 2026 at 8:04 PM
The EU will seek a full ban on maritime services to ships carrying Russian crude with G7 backing.
European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen said the 20th sanctions package will cut energy revenue and add 20 Russian banks and 43 vessels with trade bans over €930 million.
European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen said the 20th sanctions package will cut energy revenue and add 20 Russian banks and 43 vessels with trade bans over €930 million.
Treasury Inspector General for Tax Administration found the IRS began the filing season short staffed after losing 19,000 employees.
The IRS carried 2 million unresolved cases and onboarded 2% of 2,200 approved hires.
The IRS carried 2 million unresolved cases and onboarded 2% of 2,200 approved hires.
IRS staffing crunch could slow tax refunds this season, watchdog report says
The IRS entered the 2026 filing season short-staffed, raising the risk of refund delays and longer waits for help.
www.axios.com
February 6, 2026 at 2:04 PM
Treasury Inspector General for Tax Administration found the IRS began the filing season short staffed after losing 19,000 employees.
The IRS carried 2 million unresolved cases and onboarded 2% of 2,200 approved hires.
The IRS carried 2 million unresolved cases and onboarded 2% of 2,200 approved hires.
US Census Bureau plans to test a 2030 census survey with a citizenship question.
President Trump directed the Commerce Department in August to pursue counts excluding undocumented immigrants despite the 14th Amendment.
President Trump directed the Commerce Department in August to pursue counts excluding undocumented immigrants despite the 14th Amendment.
Census Bureau plans to use survey with a citizenship question in its test for 2030
The U.S. Census Bureau plans to use a survey form with a citizenship question for its 2030 census practice test
abcnews.go.com
February 6, 2026 at 1:53 PM
US Census Bureau plans to test a 2030 census survey with a citizenship question.
President Trump directed the Commerce Department in August to pursue counts excluding undocumented immigrants despite the 14th Amendment.
President Trump directed the Commerce Department in August to pursue counts excluding undocumented immigrants despite the 14th Amendment.
A new CBS News poll shows most Americans say it is harder now to buy a house, get a good job, or raise a family than for past generations.
Most also say opportunities grow for the wealthy while shrinking for the middle class, and only one in five expect the economy to grow next year.
Most also say opportunities grow for the wealthy while shrinking for the middle class, and only one in five expect the economy to grow next year.
February 6, 2026 at 1:40 PM
A new CBS News poll shows most Americans say it is harder now to buy a house, get a good job, or raise a family than for past generations.
Most also say opportunities grow for the wealthy while shrinking for the middle class, and only one in five expect the economy to grow next year.
Most also say opportunities grow for the wealthy while shrinking for the middle class, and only one in five expect the economy to grow next year.
Argentina and the US signed a reciprocal trade and investment agreement.
USTR Jamieson Greer and Argentine Foreign Minister Pablo Quirno set tariff cuts and digital trade rules.
Argentina will open agriculture markets and prioritize US access to lithium.
www.reuters.com/worl...
USTR Jamieson Greer and Argentine Foreign Minister Pablo Quirno set tariff cuts and digital trade rules.
Argentina will open agriculture markets and prioritize US access to lithium.
www.reuters.com/worl...
February 6, 2026 at 1:25 PM
Argentina and the US signed a reciprocal trade and investment agreement.
USTR Jamieson Greer and Argentine Foreign Minister Pablo Quirno set tariff cuts and digital trade rules.
Argentina will open agriculture markets and prioritize US access to lithium.
www.reuters.com/worl...
USTR Jamieson Greer and Argentine Foreign Minister Pablo Quirno set tariff cuts and digital trade rules.
Argentina will open agriculture markets and prioritize US access to lithium.
www.reuters.com/worl...
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told the Senate Banking Committee that President Trump will decide whether to sue Federal Reserve chair nominee Kevin Warsh over interest rate decisions.
Bessent said Trump joked about the idea.
www.bloomberg.com/ne...
Bessent said Trump joked about the idea.
www.bloomberg.com/ne...
February 6, 2026 at 1:17 PM
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told the Senate Banking Committee that President Trump will decide whether to sue Federal Reserve chair nominee Kevin Warsh over interest rate decisions.
Bessent said Trump joked about the idea.
www.bloomberg.com/ne...
Bessent said Trump joked about the idea.
www.bloomberg.com/ne...
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the Federal Reserve lost public trust and declined to state whether President Trump can fire Fed officials.
Bessent dodges on whether Trump can fire Fed officials
The Treasury secretary told House members Wednesday that the central bank has “lost the trust of the American people.”
www.semafor.com
February 6, 2026 at 12:51 PM
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the Federal Reserve lost public trust and declined to state whether President Trump can fire Fed officials.
Panamanian President Jose Raul Mulino said Panama will never again grant canal port concessions to one operator.
Panama Supreme Court last week voided CK Hutchison contracts for two ports, and the firm on Wednesday started arbitration tied to a $23 billion port sale.
Panama Supreme Court last week voided CK Hutchison contracts for two ports, and the firm on Wednesday started arbitration tied to a $23 billion port sale.
Panama's president says port contracts will not be issued to a single operator
Panamanian President Jose Raul Mulino said on Thursday that the concession of contracts to operate two ports held and operated for nearly three decades by Hong Kong's CK Hutchison Holdings will "never again" be issued to a single company.
www.reuters.com
February 5, 2026 at 6:16 PM
Panamanian President Jose Raul Mulino said Panama will never again grant canal port concessions to one operator.
Panama Supreme Court last week voided CK Hutchison contracts for two ports, and the firm on Wednesday started arbitration tied to a $23 billion port sale.
Panama Supreme Court last week voided CK Hutchison contracts for two ports, and the firm on Wednesday started arbitration tied to a $23 billion port sale.
JOLTS showed job openings fell to 6.54 million in December from 6.93 million in November, Bureau of Labor Statistics said.
Vacancies per unemployed worker stayed at 0.9 vs 2 in 2022, quits stayed near pandemic lows, and retail and business services drove the drop.
www.bloomberg.com/ne...
Vacancies per unemployed worker stayed at 0.9 vs 2 in 2022, quits stayed near pandemic lows, and retail and business services drove the drop.
www.bloomberg.com/ne...
February 5, 2026 at 6:01 PM
JOLTS showed job openings fell to 6.54 million in December from 6.93 million in November, Bureau of Labor Statistics said.
Vacancies per unemployed worker stayed at 0.9 vs 2 in 2022, quits stayed near pandemic lows, and retail and business services drove the drop.
www.bloomberg.com/ne...
Vacancies per unemployed worker stayed at 0.9 vs 2 in 2022, quits stayed near pandemic lows, and retail and business services drove the drop.
www.bloomberg.com/ne...
Reposted by Econ Yap
JOB OPENINGS (DECEMBER)
6.5 MILLION
HIRES (DECEMBER)
5.3 MILLION
SEPARATIONS (DECEMBER)
5.3 MILLION
www.bls.gov/news.rel...
6.5 MILLION
HIRES (DECEMBER)
5.3 MILLION
SEPARATIONS (DECEMBER)
5.3 MILLION
www.bls.gov/news.rel...
February 5, 2026 at 3:48 PM
JOB OPENINGS (DECEMBER)
6.5 MILLION
HIRES (DECEMBER)
5.3 MILLION
SEPARATIONS (DECEMBER)
5.3 MILLION
www.bls.gov/news.rel...
6.5 MILLION
HIRES (DECEMBER)
5.3 MILLION
SEPARATIONS (DECEMBER)
5.3 MILLION
www.bls.gov/news.rel...
Senator Elizabeth Warren asked Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent to terminate a $20 billion Argentina swap line under the Exchange Stabilization Fund.
The Treasury extended the line before Argentina’s October 2025 elections, Argentina drew $2.5 billion and repaid it in January.
The Treasury extended the line before Argentina’s October 2025 elections, Argentina drew $2.5 billion and repaid it in January.
February 5, 2026 at 2:21 PM
Senator Elizabeth Warren asked Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent to terminate a $20 billion Argentina swap line under the Exchange Stabilization Fund.
The Treasury extended the line before Argentina’s October 2025 elections, Argentina drew $2.5 billion and repaid it in January.
The Treasury extended the line before Argentina’s October 2025 elections, Argentina drew $2.5 billion and repaid it in January.
Reposted by Econ Yap
INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS
231,000 (+22,000 FROM PREVIOUS WEEK)
CONTINUING JOBLESS CLAIMS
1,844,000 (+25,000 FROM PREVIOUS WEEK)
dol.gov/ui/data.pdf
231,000 (+22,000 FROM PREVIOUS WEEK)
CONTINUING JOBLESS CLAIMS
1,844,000 (+25,000 FROM PREVIOUS WEEK)
dol.gov/ui/data.pdf
February 5, 2026 at 2:16 PM
INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS
231,000 (+22,000 FROM PREVIOUS WEEK)
CONTINUING JOBLESS CLAIMS
1,844,000 (+25,000 FROM PREVIOUS WEEK)
dol.gov/ui/data.pdf
231,000 (+22,000 FROM PREVIOUS WEEK)
CONTINUING JOBLESS CLAIMS
1,844,000 (+25,000 FROM PREVIOUS WEEK)
dol.gov/ui/data.pdf
Kathryn Anne Edwards argues housing costs reflect income inequality.
She cites Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco research linking price growth to income growth not building limits.
Edwards says policy should raise wages via minimum pay scheduling and unions.
www.bloomberg.com/op...
She cites Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco research linking price growth to income growth not building limits.
Edwards says policy should raise wages via minimum pay scheduling and unions.
www.bloomberg.com/op...
February 5, 2026 at 1:52 PM
Kathryn Anne Edwards argues housing costs reflect income inequality.
She cites Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco research linking price growth to income growth not building limits.
Edwards says policy should raise wages via minimum pay scheduling and unions.
www.bloomberg.com/op...
She cites Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco research linking price growth to income growth not building limits.
Edwards says policy should raise wages via minimum pay scheduling and unions.
www.bloomberg.com/op...
Challenger, Gray & Christmas reported US employers announced 108,435 layoffs in January, the highest January level since 2009.
Companies announced 5,306 hires, the lowest since 2009.
Labor Department WARN filings showed more than 100 companies planned significant layoffs.
Companies announced 5,306 hires, the lowest since 2009.
Labor Department WARN filings showed more than 100 companies planned significant layoffs.
Layoffs in January were the highest to start a year since 2009, Challenger says
With the recent narrative centering on a no-hire no-fire labor market, the data suggests that the layoff part of the equation could be stepping up.
www.cnbc.com
February 5, 2026 at 1:23 PM
Challenger, Gray & Christmas reported US employers announced 108,435 layoffs in January, the highest January level since 2009.
Companies announced 5,306 hires, the lowest since 2009.
Labor Department WARN filings showed more than 100 companies planned significant layoffs.
Companies announced 5,306 hires, the lowest since 2009.
Labor Department WARN filings showed more than 100 companies planned significant layoffs.
Chinese President Xi Jinping told US President Trump that Taiwan remained the most important bilateral issue and urged caution on US arms sales.
Trump focused on trade and said China will buy 20 million tons of US soybeans this season and 25 million next season.
Trump focused on trade and said China will buy 20 million tons of US soybeans this season and 25 million next season.
China's Xi reasserts Taiwan stance in call with Trump, while U.S. president pushes trade
Beijing stressed Taiwan is the most important issue while Trump highlights the trade aspects of the bilateral relations.
www.cnbc.com
February 5, 2026 at 1:12 PM
Chinese President Xi Jinping told US President Trump that Taiwan remained the most important bilateral issue and urged caution on US arms sales.
Trump focused on trade and said China will buy 20 million tons of US soybeans this season and 25 million next season.
Trump focused on trade and said China will buy 20 million tons of US soybeans this season and 25 million next season.
Senator Tim Scott, Senate Banking Committee chair, said Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell did not commit a crime during June 2025 testimony.
Scott said no statement showed perjury despite a Justice Department probe tied to Fed building renovations.
Scott said no statement showed perjury despite a Justice Department probe tied to Fed building renovations.
Top Republican Senator Says Fed’s Powell Didn’t Commit a Crime
Banking committee chair Tim Scott seeks to defuse a standoff over a criminal probe of the current Fed chair that is complicating Kevin Warsh’s nomination to the post.
www.wsj.com
February 4, 2026 at 6:30 PM
Senator Tim Scott, Senate Banking Committee chair, said Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell did not commit a crime during June 2025 testimony.
Scott said no statement showed perjury despite a Justice Department probe tied to Fed building renovations.
Scott said no statement showed perjury despite a Justice Department probe tied to Fed building renovations.
Gallup polled adults in 107 countries last year and found economic issues ranked as the top domestic problem.
A median 23% cited the economy, then 10% cited work including unemployment.
In the US, 32% of adults ages 15 to 34 cited the economy, versus 13% of those 55 and older.
A median 23% cited the economy, then 10% cited work including unemployment.
In the US, 32% of adults ages 15 to 34 cited the economy, versus 13% of those 55 and older.
February 4, 2026 at 5:07 PM
Gallup polled adults in 107 countries last year and found economic issues ranked as the top domestic problem.
A median 23% cited the economy, then 10% cited work including unemployment.
In the US, 32% of adults ages 15 to 34 cited the economy, versus 13% of those 55 and older.
A median 23% cited the economy, then 10% cited work including unemployment.
In the US, 32% of adults ages 15 to 34 cited the economy, versus 13% of those 55 and older.
Institute for Supply Management said the US services sector held steady in January as new orders slowed and export demand contracted.
Input costs increased after supply strains emerged.
www.reuters.com/busi...
Input costs increased after supply strains emerged.
www.reuters.com/busi...
February 4, 2026 at 4:55 PM
Institute for Supply Management said the US services sector held steady in January as new orders slowed and export demand contracted.
Input costs increased after supply strains emerged.
www.reuters.com/busi...
Input costs increased after supply strains emerged.
www.reuters.com/busi...
EU Parliament trade committee restarted EU-US trade pact ratification after President Trump reversed Greenland threats.
The committee will vote on February 24th, chair Bernd Lange said, on terms that remove EU tariffs on US goods and keep 15% duties on EU exports and 50% levies.
The committee will vote on February 24th, chair Bernd Lange said, on terms that remove EU tariffs on US goods and keep 15% duties on EU exports and 50% levies.
February 4, 2026 at 4:44 PM
EU Parliament trade committee restarted EU-US trade pact ratification after President Trump reversed Greenland threats.
The committee will vote on February 24th, chair Bernd Lange said, on terms that remove EU tariffs on US goods and keep 15% duties on EU exports and 50% levies.
The committee will vote on February 24th, chair Bernd Lange said, on terms that remove EU tariffs on US goods and keep 15% duties on EU exports and 50% levies.