ejblom.bsky.social
@ejblom.bsky.social
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My PWHL Elo ratings system gives the Frost about a 2/3rds chance of winning today. Minnesota's Elo has soared in these playoffs to now be 1330.
It's been cold in Minnesota and it just got colder: per Elo Montréal overtook the Frost for the top spot in the PWHL.

I also improved the Elo history chart to better show the off-season gap and fixed a bug that stopped me from updating the numbers for a couple days. Sorry for the delay!
Pardon the long flat lines on the chart. I need to remove the off season from the x-axis so it's easier to read.
My Elo ratings still think Minnesota are the best PWHL team, but the story of the season has to be Montréal surging. La Victoire and the Frost have separated themselves from the pack. Can they keep it up? Might they see each other in the Finals?

More here: ericjohannes.github.io/pwhl-elo/
In programming notes, I reworked the data pipeline so it's easier to update. Math is the same. I've been building this plane as I've been flying it, but now I should be able to keep it up to date every day.
Current Elo of PWHL teams! Minnesota still on top but has dipped. Montréal has been surging. Toronto continues to slide. More here ericjohannes.github.io/pwhl-elo/
Updated Elos and rankings after the preseason!

My system ranks Minnesota #1 entering the season, understandable after they won both their preseason games and the Walter Cup in May.

A few tweaks to the style too. Should be more legible.
Working on a project to evaluate sports teams and forecast games with Elo. Took a crack at the PWHL. The puck drops in only two days! ericjohannes.github.io/pwhl-elo/
Women's Professional Hockey Ratings
ericjohannes.github.io