Author | Lightnews

Emil Kastehelmi @emilkastehelmi.bsky.social · 5d

Thanks for reading, it's been a while since I last wrote a longer thread here. I've been simply very, very busy recently.

Our map can be found in the link below. 14/14

www.scribblemaps.com/maps/view/Th...

The War in Ukraine

Map depicting the frontlines of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, as analysed by Black Bird Group

www.scribblemaps.com

4 1 48

Emil Kastehelmi @emilkastehelmi.bsky.social · 5d

This is an issue elsewhere too, but the situation around Pokrovsk and Dobropillia is especially dynamic. It is clear that the Russians can feed troops into the battle from the southern side of the city, but after that, their actual level of control is a rough estimate. 13/

1 1 35

Emil Kastehelmi @emilkastehelmi.bsky.social · 5d

Note: Maps from this area are indicative visualizations. In practice, there is no clearly traceable frontline. Patrols can slip through porous defenses. Ambushes are a constant risk, and troops hide amid the ruins of buildings, often in overlapping positions. 12/

1 1 27

Emil Kastehelmi @emilkastehelmi.bsky.social · 5d

Even though land and cities would be lost, abandoning the salient could benefit Ukraine militarily. The most acute threat of encirclement would be gone, units could operate under better logistics, and the front would straighten and shorten by dozens of kilometers. 11/

1 2 38

Emil Kastehelmi @emilkastehelmi.bsky.social · 5d

After a year of fighting on the Pokrovsk–Myrnohrad axis, losing the cities now would have limited effect on the broader operational picture. A Ukrainian retreat from the area doesn’t mean Russia would automatically gain momentum which they could capitalize on immediately. 10/

1 2 33

Emil Kastehelmi @emilkastehelmi.bsky.social · 5d

Politically, leaving Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad would be a bitter setback, but if Ukraine retreats and conserves as much manpower as possible while avoiding the worst scenarios, the end result can be viewed as a Pyrrhic victory for the Russians. 9/

2 2 36

Emil Kastehelmi @emilkastehelmi.bsky.social · 5d

The tendency to hold ground as long as possible gives an opportunity for the Russians to attrit the defending units. Staying in Myrnohrad extends the Ukrainian frontline by roughly 40 kilometers, and keeping the gap between Rodynske and Pokrovsk open is difficult and costly. 8/

1 1 28

Emil Kastehelmi @emilkastehelmi.bsky.social · 5d

Even though advancing is slow and costly for Russia, Ukraine also suffers unnecessary losses in these situations. It has avoided major catastrophes, but decisions to withdraw have often come dangerously late. The latest example was the hasty retreat from Kursk in spring 2025. 7/

1 2 36

Emil Kastehelmi @emilkastehelmi.bsky.social · 5d

This phenomenon has been seen multiple times before. Russia advances on the flanks and creates an encirclement threat; logistics become untenable for larger forces; coordinated defense crumbles; counterattacks don’t fix it – and finally Ukraine withdraws at the last moment. 6/

1 1 34

Emil Kastehelmi @emilkastehelmi.bsky.social · 5d

In Pokrovsk, the chance of a decisive outcome is higher, as the situation for the Ukrainians keeps deteriorating. Russian advances and continuous drone strikes have crippled key logistical routes. Getting reserves and supplies in – or the wounded out – is arduous. 5/

1 1 31

Emil Kastehelmi @emilkastehelmi.bsky.social · 5d

In Russian operational art, reinforcing success is a core element. After several failed mechanized assaults in the Dobropillia direction in October, Russia appeared to cease committing more resources to the failing salient and put even greater emphasis on Pokrovsk. 4/

1 2 30

Emil Kastehelmi @emilkastehelmi.bsky.social · 5d

The latest Ukrainian counterattacks have not turned the situation decisively in Ukraine's favor. They managed to recapture various positions in Rodynske and in the Dobropillia direction, but the threat of encirclement in Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad has not been removed. 3/

2 2 33

Emil Kastehelmi @emilkastehelmi.bsky.social · 5d

The situation in Pokrovsk is difficult for the Ukrainians. Russians have consolidated positions in the southern parts of the city, and are advancing further north. Most of the city is a gray zone, where infantry groups fight without a clear frontline. 2/

1 2 31

Emil Kastehelmi @emilkastehelmi.bsky.social · 5d

Ukraine may be repeating a costly mistake in Pokrovsk.

It’s a recurring pattern, seen for example in Vuhledar and Kursk – a reluctance to conduct a controlled, militarily justified withdrawal from a threatened salient when the situation no longer favors the defender. 1/

9 20 91

Emil Kastehelmi @emilkastehelmi.bsky.social · Jun 5

Here's the link to our sheet. If you spot mistakes, please inform us. The assessment was made by me,
@eerikmatero.bsky.social and @jjhelin.bsky.social from our @blackbirdgroup.bsky.social. Thanks to Wihuri Foundation for funding us – it made this BDA possible. 17/17

docs.google.com/spreadsheets...

Operation Spiderweb, BDA

docs.google.com

1 6 40

Emil Kastehelmi @emilkastehelmi.bsky.social · Jun 5

Russia can’t replace the lost bombers by simply ordering new ones, as neither Tu-95 or Tu-22M have been produced in over 30 years. The aircraft are aging, and a significant proportion of the operational planes were rapidly lost – some can’t even be used as spare parts. 16/

1 2 34

Emil Kastehelmi @emilkastehelmi.bsky.social · Jun 5

These bombers have been used extensively in missile attacks against Ukraine, and they were very legitimate targets. The missile threat does not disappear directly with these losses, but especially in the long term Russian strategic aviation faces challenges. 15/

1 23

Emil Kastehelmi @emilkastehelmi.bsky.social · Jun 5

Before the operation, Russia most likely had less than 100 operational strategic bombers in operational condition, so likely somewhere between 11-14% of Russian strategic bombers have been destroyed. Total losses are higher, but difficult to exactly estimate. 14/

1 21

Emil Kastehelmi @emilkastehelmi.bsky.social · Jun 5

However, it’s unlikely that the losses would mount up to 41 destroyed or damaged aircraft. Even if the total losses were limited to the 14 confirmed bombers, it would still be a very significant success for Ukraine, which should not be underestimated. 13/

1 1 25

Emil Kastehelmi @emilkastehelmi.bsky.social · Jun 5

It’s possible that there are undocumented but damaged aircraft. Unpublished video footage of additional strikes could exist, and it’s not always possible to reliably assess limited damage from satellite imagery. Total losses may be slightly higher than currently known. 12/

1 22

Emil Kastehelmi @emilkastehelmi.bsky.social · Jun 5

Ukraine’s General Staff has stated that 41 Russian aircraft were destroyed or damaged. However, visual evidence currently supports only 23 aircraft being hit or approached by drones. It is highly unlikely that any destroyed aircraft would have gone unnoticed. 11/

1 21

Emil Kastehelmi @emilkastehelmi.bsky.social · Jun 5

Russia’s Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov told TASS that no aircraft were destroyed, only damaged, and all would be repaired. This claim either reflects complete ignorance or is deliberate disinformation, as multiple aircraft were damaged beyond repair. 10/

1 1 25

Emil Kastehelmi @emilkastehelmi.bsky.social · Jun 5

The evaluation is based on videos and satellite imagery. Each aircraft was identified and geolocated to avoid double-counting, as some appeared multiple times in the footage. The condition of the planes was then assessed by combining video, imagery, and geolocation data. 9/

1 20

Emil Kastehelmi @emilkastehelmi.bsky.social · Jun 5

For example, the two high-value A-50 reconnaissance and radar planes targeted by Ukraine likely fall into this category. It’s very likely neither of them got fully destroyed, but we couldn’t accurately assess potential damage. It’s also possible the drones did not detonate. 8/

1 24

Emil Kastehelmi @emilkastehelmi.bsky.social · Jun 5

As you can notice, not all targeted aircraft were operational at the time of the strikes. Some have been stationary for long periods and may lack parts, such as engines. However, they’re proper targets too, as non-operational aircraft can be used as spare parts. 7/

1 23