Author | Lightnews

Elias Ferrer @ferrerbreda.bsky.social · 25d

🇻🇪 Venezuela is in the global spotlight again, with military escalations, sanctions changes, an opaque oil sector, and complex political and geopolitical considerations at play. What's really going on? What are the scenarios for the future?

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Contact — Orinoco Research

orinocoresearch.com

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Elias Ferrer @ferrerbreda.bsky.social · 25d

Here, CBC explains that the US Navy deployment is really not about drug trafficking. And that instead, it might be about:
- Regime change to control Venezuela's resources.
- To combat China's influence (but backfiring).
- Consolidating Trump's power.

youtu.be/IIpgOGWc7Ug

Why Trump is at war with Venezuela | About That

YouTube video by CBC News

youtu.be

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Elias Ferrer @ferrerbreda.bsky.social · Sep 29

With my comments for @oglobo.globo.com on how the Trump administration sees Venezuela, what a military operation could entail, and how Maduro is reacting.

oglobo.globo.com/mundo/notici...

Caminho incerto: Dividido entre ala dura e diplomática, Trump está indeciso sobre Venezuela

Analistas políticos venezuelanos avaliam que presidente americano ainda não decidiu o que fazer sobre o regime Maduro em Caracas

oglobo.globo.com

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Elias Ferrer @ferrerbreda.bsky.social · Sep 27

Shared my thoughts with the Inter-American Dialogue on what the Cartel de los Soles is, and what the Trump administration is trying to achieve in Venezuela.

Just the first paragraph in the screenshot. You can read the full piece by subscribing to them:
thedialogue.org/latin-americ...

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Elias Ferrer @ferrerbreda.bsky.social · Sep 27

Should we expect war or negotiations between the United States and Venezuela? What will it mean for energy markets?

Read my latest for OilPrice here 👇
oilprice.com/Energy/Energ...

Crude Oil Prices Today | OilPrice.com

Crude oil prices & gas price charts. Oil price charts for Brent Crude, WTI & oil futures. Energy news covering oil, petroleum, natural gas and investment advice

OilPrice.com

Elias Ferrer @ferrerbreda.bsky.social · Sep 21

Behind Venezuela's phantom cartel, Trump's endgame remains unclear

My latest comment for BNE Intellinews here 👇
www.intellinews.com/comment-behi...

www.intellinews.com

Elias Ferrer @ferrerbreda.bsky.social · Sep 17

With my comments for O Globo:

"Sabemos que algumas pessoas em Washington imaginam uma negociação para uma eleição antecipada, ou um acordo para que Maduro possa deixar o poder. Facções da oposição moderada buscam essa saída. MCM quer que tirem Maduro já do poder."

oglobo.globo.com/mundo/notici...

Pressão máxima: Trump envia forças ao Caribe e manda afundar barcos para acuar Maduro, dizem analistas

Casa Branca enviou a Porto Rico caças multifuncionais de quinta geração que têm, entre outras capacidades, interferir e neutralizar sistemas de comunicação, carregar mísseis com alcance de até 200km e...

oglobo.globo.com

Elias Ferrer @ferrerbreda.bsky.social · Sep 15

We were able to show that the Cartel de los Soles is a political narrative used to justify military intervention.

In this piece, we analyse the consequences as the U.S. is undermining its own strategic, energy, and migration interests in Latin America.

guacamayave.com/en/the-myth-...

The myth of a Venezuelan narco-state: A geopolitical risk for the United States - Guacamaya

Creating and spreading a false narrative is not harmless. In this third article, we are laying out the damning consequences of branding Venezuela a narco-state.

guacamayave.com

Reposted by Elias Ferrer

David Smilde @dsmilde.bsky.social · Sep 8

Another solid investigative article by @ferrerbreda.bsky.social regarding claims of a "Cartel de los Soles" directed by Nicolás Maduro
guacamayave.com/en/the-carte...

The Cartel de los Soles: How a narrative is used to push for regime change - Guacamaya

Last week, the U.S. military struck an alleged drug trafficking boat in international waters, with the backdrop of a Navy deployment in the Caribbean.

guacamayave.com

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Elias Ferrer @ferrerbreda.bsky.social · Sep 9

We aren't done. We just published a second investigation, where we show how the "Cartel de los Soles" political narrative was created with one goal: to push for regime change.

Read the full investigation here 👇
guacamayave.com/en/the-carte...

The Cartel de los Soles: How a narrative is used to push for regime change - Guacamaya

Last week, the U.S. military struck an alleged drug trafficking boat in international waters, with the backdrop of a Navy deployment in the Caribbean.

guacamayave.com

Elias Ferrer @ferrerbreda.bsky.social · Sep 5

We just did an investigative report on what the Cartel of the Suns really is: a political narrative.

In Venezuela, there is drug trafficking and widespread corruption, but there is no evidence to back up the State and Justice Department's allegations.

guacamayave.com/en/the-carte...

The Cartel de los Soles: A political narrative or reality? - Guacamaya

On July 25, 2025 the Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control sanctioned what it called “the Cartel de los Soles” as a “Specially Designated Global Terrorist Organization.”

guacamayave.com

Reposted by Elias Ferrer

David Smilde @dsmilde.bsky.social · Sep 5

This is the best deep-dive regarding the mythical "Cartel de los Soles" published by a Venezuelan investigative journlaist.

guacamayave.com/en/the-carte...

The Cartel de los Soles: A political narrative or reality? - Guacamaya

On July 25, 2025 the Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control sanctioned what it called “the Cartel de los Soles” as a “Specially Designated Global Terrorist Organization.”

guacamayave.com

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Elias Ferrer @ferrerbreda.bsky.social · Jul 24

Sometimes we forget that sanctions are, to many effects, an act of war. Blockades aren't new, just the way we do them.

Now, Francisco Rodríguez, Silvio Rendón, and Mark Weisbrot are arguing they cause as many deaths as conventional war.

cepr.net/publications...

Effects of International Sanctions on Age-Specific Mortality: A Cross-National Panel Data Analysis

New study finds unilateral economic sanctions significantly increase mortality, causing over 560,000 deaths annually—comparable to war.

cepr.net

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Elias Ferrer @ferrerbreda.bsky.social · Jun 16

The point is that Chinese companies don't have to invest billions in Venezuela. They already control its export markets for oil and most minerals, thanks to U.S. sanctions. You don't buy something that you already own.

My latest:
oilprice.com/Energy/Energ...

How the U.S. is Handing Over Venezuela’s Oil Sector to China | OilPrice.com

While not officially taking over Chevron’s assets, Chinese companies like China Concord Petroleum and Anhui Guangda Mining are signing secretive production-sharing deals to operate oil fields and purs...

oilprice.com

Elias Ferrer @ferrerbreda.bsky.social · Jun 15

Venezuela is not taking Chevron’s oil fields and giving them to Chinese firms. But here is how the country is becoming fully dependent on Beijing.

First of all, China has become a monopsony for oil and for mining (meaning it’s virtually the only buyer).

oilprice.com/Energy/Energ...

How the U.S. is Handing Over Venezuela’s Oil Sector to China | OilPrice.com

While not officially taking over Chevron’s assets, Chinese companies like China Concord Petroleum and Anhui Guangda Mining are signing secretive production-sharing deals to operate oil fields and purs...

oilprice.com

Elias Ferrer @ferrerbreda.bsky.social · Jun 11

So far we have:
- Delcy Rodríguez meeting Chinese VP and CNPC execs.
- Maduro and Xi meeting in Moscow.
- Now strengthening party-level relations, CCP-PSUV.
- China is by far Venezuela's top destination for oil and metals exports.

guacamayave.com/en/chinese-c...

Chinese Communist Party delegation visits Venezuela - Guacamaya

A Chinese Communist Party (CCP) delegation arrived in Caracas, Venezuela on Tuesday, where it is meeting with President Nicolás Maduro.

guacamayave.com

Elias Ferrer @ferrerbreda.bsky.social · May 30

En VPITV esta mañana, sobre el efecto económico de la salida de Chevron, y lo que dijo ayer Delcy Rodríguez de que todos los campos petroleros siguen en plena producción.

youtu.be/aAMQoN0gsgk?...

Se acabó la Válvula de Escape - Elías Ferrer

YouTube video by VPItv

youtu.be

Elias Ferrer @ferrerbreda.bsky.social · May 27

Con mis comentarios sobre los “contratos de participación productiva” y como nuevas empresas chinas estarían entrando en la producción de crudo venezolano.

bitacoraeconomica.com/asi-enfrenta...

Así enfrentaría Venezuela ese de operaciones de petroleras

Maduro ha estado preparándose para el cese de operaciones de las petroleras: una de las piezas que ha movido es usar la figura de los CPP

bitacoraeconomica.com

Elias Ferrer @ferrerbreda.bsky.social · May 24

El jueves estuve en un seminario web de FIU Jack D Gordon Institute for Public Policy, con Francisco Monaldi, David Goldwyn y Brian Fonseca.

Este artículo resume lo que dijimos en español:

hispanopost.com/revocatoria-...

Aquí la grabación del evento, en inglés:
www.youtube.com/watch?v=gK3D...

Revocatoria de las licencias ya se siente en Venezuela: empeora la economía y crece presencia de China, Rusia e Irán - HispanoPost

Ya está en marcha en Venezuela lo que expertos han llamado la segunda parte de la película “Máxima presión”, en referencia a la política de sanciones -que incluye la revocatoria de las licencias petro...

hispanopost.com

Elias Ferrer @ferrerbreda.bsky.social · May 24

Just realized that Brazilian media picked up my best quote (from the FIU webinar) and just threw it in there with no context:

www.opovo.com.br/noticias/mun...

Sanções de Trump na Venezuela, incerteza e recessão à vista

A Venezuela ainda não se recuperou de seu colapso econômico e a possibilidade de uma nova recessão está nas mãos do presidente dos Estados Unidos, Donald Trump, se ele revogar ou prorrogar as permissõ...

www.opovo.com.br

Elias Ferrer @ferrerbreda.bsky.social · May 24

"Three House Republicans from southern Florida nearly derailed passage of President Donald Trump’s massive tax and spending package this week in protest of an apparent presidential reversal of sanctions on Venezuela," from @washingtonpost.com.

www.washingtonpost.com/national-sec...

Rubio and Grenell, Trump’s dueling diplomats, clash over Venezuela

A policy clash between Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Richard Grenell, Trump’s envoy for special missions, nearly scuttled the House tax and spending bill.

www.washingtonpost.com

Elias Ferrer @ferrerbreda.bsky.social · May 23

Yesterday, I spoke at the FIU Gordon Institute webinar with Francisco Monaldi, David Goldwyn and Brian Fonseca.

"Halting Oil Operations, Implications for Venezuela and the United States"

You can watch it here:
www.youtube.com/watch?v=gK3D...

Halting Oil Operations, Implications for Venezuela and the United States

YouTube video by FIU Gordon Institute

www.youtube.com

Elias Ferrer @ferrerbreda.bsky.social · May 20

Debo resaltar que en Venezuela nunca he tenido problemas con “malandros” corrientes. Pero si me han complicado mucho la vida funcionarios.

Y esto no es un problema de uno o dos corruptos. Es algo del presupuesto del sector público.

Elias Ferrer @ferrerbreda.bsky.social · May 20

Un amigo acaba de experimentar el paseo millonario, así como tuve la oportunidad yo mismo en enero.

Algún día tendremos que solucionar esto de que el modus operandi de una unidad de la Policía Nacional Bolivariana es sembrar a jóvenes y extorsionarlos por miles de dólares.

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Reposted by Elias Ferrer

Guacamaya @theguacamayave.bsky.social · May 19

🦜 Entrevistamos a Eric Ondarroa, candidato por la gobernación de Miranda del Lápiz, durante un recorrido por Petare. Su mensaje principal es la educación, mientras los vecinos denuncian que sus hijos apenas pueden ver clases.

Lee la entrevista aquí 👇
guacamayave.com/eric-ondarro...

Eric Ondarroa, candidato por Miranda: “A los chamos les entregan un título, pero salen sin saber leer ni multiplicar” - Guacamaya

Entrevistamos a Eric Ondarroa, candidato a la gobernación de Miranda por Alianza del Lápiz, durante su recorrido por Petare.

guacamayave.com

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