Will the Emerging Markets Rally Continue?
Emerging market equities are outperforming developed markets. This trend became evident over the past year and is likely to continue into 2026. However, there are several important factors investors need to keep in mind.
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In this column, authors comment on economic and financial topics.
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Is it reasonable to expect another year of double-digit performance in emerging markets?
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Despite the geopolitical climate and the economic uncertainty introduced by the new US administration, emerging market equities had a spectacular year in 2025. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index closed the year up 34%, with its Asian sub-index up 33% and its South American sub-index up 56%.
What were the drivers behind this robust performance?
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When analysing the performance of emerging market equity indices, four factors usually explain the dynamics. All these factors were positively present in 2025: a depreciating dollar, falling US sovereign rates thanks to increased support from the Federal Reserve, a significant reduction in energy commodity prices and a resilient global economy.
These factors lower companies' financing costs and reduce operating expenses while increasing their earnings. However, when broken down into the contribution of expected corporate earnings growth and valuation, or sentiment where applicable, geographical performance shows a dichotomy.
«The dichotomy observed between emerging Asia and Latin America could become more pronounced.»
While expected earnings growth contributed 52% to the performance of the MSCI Asia index, this factor accounted for only 19% of the performance of its South American counterpart. Part of this difference can be explained by the technological and financial bias that characterises the MSCI Emerging Asia, while the MSCI LATAM is mainly exposed to the financial and mining sectors and, to a certain extent, the energy sector.
Will the factors that enabled emerging market indices to advance last year be present in 2026?
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The dichotomy observed between emerging Asia and Latin America could become more pronounced. First, the stability of the dollar expected in 2026 is unlikely to support emerging market assets, and investors have already fully priced in the Fed's rate cuts. Furthermore, the Asian region remains distant from the geopolitical considerations involving the United States, the European Union and Latin America. This distance acts as a kind of shield that decorrelates and diversifies exposure to risky assets, particularly in the emerging markets sphere.
«China remains a direct and leading competitor in the field of artificial intelligence and is further strengthening its dominance in the robotics sector.»
Furthermore, the main difference between emerging Asia and other markets in this segment lies in its greater exposure to themes related to AI, semiconductors and new technologies. The latest semiconductor sales figures show that the Asia-Pacific region has grown faster than the United States, making it the world's largest contributor.
China remains a direct and leading competitor in the field of artificial intelligence and is further strengthening its dominance in the robotics sector. Earnings growth for 2026 is forecast at 58% for KOSPI companies and 21% for those in the Taiwanese index, well above the projections for G7 countries. Brazil, Mexico and even emerging European countries do not offer such prospects. Adding to the problem, the economies of the emerging bloc exposed to the energy factor could see their situation deteriorate due to downward pressure on oil prices.
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Mabrouk Chetouane is Global Head of Market Strategy at Natixis IM.
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