Geopolitical updates
geopolupdates.bsky.social
Geopolitical updates
@geopolupdates.bsky.social
55 followers 11 following 480 posts
Keeps you updated w geopolitical developments and views. Focus on Africa, the Middle East, Ukraine & other hotspots. Instagram threads: geopol___updates X: Geopol_updates
Posts Media Videos Starter Packs
The #Kurdish #PKK pulls back its forces from 🇹🇷 to Iraq where its most important bases are. PKK trying to deliver on its end of the peace deal in exchange for freedoms & democratic integration but says #Ankara not delivering. Its unclear whether its leader Ocalan will be released
#Trump to go on his longest foreign trip visiting Malaysia, Japan & #SouthKorea. Korea ready to invest $350 bln in the US in exchange for no tariffs but Trump wants more. Japan the same. He might meet Xi as the trade war w China escalated, to the dismay of #Japan & Skorea
#UAE ups the ante as it sends #RSF’s drones to pound #Khartoum airport for a 3rd day in a row. This comes after the Sudanese gov declared the airport open for traffic & the RSF threatened airports of neighboring countries like Egypt.
EU agrees on more #Russia #sanctions after #Trump already slapped Moscow w sanctions. These focus on limiting Russian gas exports, limiting movement of 🇷🇺’s diplomats & its shadow fleet. No deal on frozen 🇷🇺’s assets as Belgium fears Russian revenge
❗️The 19th package of EU sanctions and new US restrictions are a good signal for the whole world, — Zelensky

"These are, of course, tougher sanctions against Russia. The 19th package is very important, as are the decisions of EU leaders, but the US sanctions are also extremely important.
While #Fano fights on, Abiy is very worried about TPLF in #Tigray. Addis tries to divide Tigrayans by paying TPF a lot in order to fight the Fed gov’s fight while at the same time sanctioning Mekelle. #TPLF preparing for an ENDF attack as its target nr. 1
Reuters: By persuading #Hamas to accept #Trump’s Gaza deal, #Ankara has reasserted itself on the Middle East chessboard, to the dismay of Israel & Arab rivals. Erdogan now wants F35s, easing of sanctions & US help in Syria w the SDF
President Trump:

President Erdoğan also helped in the war between Russia and Ukraine. Erdogan is respected by Russia.

And he's a friend of mine. I get along with the tough ones. I don't get along with the weak ones.

I don't know what that is, but Erdogan's been great with me.
#Syria’s #AlSharaa disappointed w the West as the former AlQaeda member tried everything: he dressed up in a suit & gave multiple interviews to western media. Yet some sanctions remain & #Israel bombs Syria so he turns to Putin even as his enemy Assad lives in Russia nowadays.
#Abiy trying not to fall of his horse as the #Birr takes a deep dive & Ethiopia’s creditors contemplate legal action. This while Ethiopian intel. totally missed Fano’s attacks leading to heavy ENDF casualties as ENDF prepared to invade #Eritrea. ENDF had to pull troops from Afar.
#Morocco promises to invest $13 billion in healthcare & education due to the #GENZ212 protests. Gen Z is angry as #Rabat invests billions in organising the Worldcup while hospitals lack equipment.
Europe prepares for hybridwarfare as it believes its already in a hybrid war w #Russia. Its building a drone wall to counter #Russian drones entering. Current costs of a missile are too high compared to #Moscow’s cheap drones.
While #Trump failed to bring in #Syria, #AlSharaa visited Moscow & agreed to continue existing Russian Syrian deals. Erdogan backing Syria massively w drones & missiles, hoping that it will weaken the US backed Kurdish YPG/SDF. Türkiye going “all in” on Syria as Israel watches
#FT reports that a #Saudi US defense deal is in the making similar to the one Qatar has w the US. Any attack on Qatar is seen as an attack on America. Saudi already signed a defense deal w #Pakistan but still seems worried about safety.
Intl. media: #Putin’s Russia #Arab summit fails miserably as only #Syria & the Arableague responded to his invite. This signals declining Russian influence as the Ukraine war takes its toll & Russia’s economy is relatively small. UAE, Egypt & Saudi did not respond.
#Trump feeling victorious after #Hamas decided to release the hostages. Trump thinks it was his threat of bombs that pushed Hamas. Yet it were many countries who played a role in that deal. Now he threatens Putin w #Tomahawks but Putin is a tough nut to crack
"I know what he has to say, he wants weapons, he would like to have Tomahawks, everyone would like to have. We have a lot of Tomahawks," Trump said.

Do you need any Tomahawks?
#Omani media report that #Eritrea & Oman agreed to enhance trade & investment as well as establish direct banking channels for smoother trade. They plan to organise a Omani #Eritrean business forum to link the business community & explore joint ventures
48 hour Ceasefire declared betw #Pakistan & the #Taliban going in at 6 pm local time. Last temporary pause in fighting collapsed quickly.
#Kabul is burning as #Pakistan bombs Afghanistan & clashes are ongoing. India welcoming the #Taliban as it sees the enemy of its enemy as its friend. India used to accuse Pakistan of backing the Taliban but things changed.
Pakistan is now conducting airstrikes inside Afghanistan, including in Kabul. Tensions between the two countries have been high, with Pakistan accusing the Taliban of sheltering armed groups responsible for attacks inside Pakistani territory.
#Kabul is burning as #Pakistan bombs Afghanistan & clashes are ongoing. India welcoming the #Taliban as it sees the enemy of its enemy as its friend. India used to accuse Pakistan of backing the Taliban but things changed.
Pakistan is now conducting airstrikes inside Afghanistan, including in Kabul. Tensions between the two countries have been high, with Pakistan accusing the Taliban of sheltering armed groups responsible for attacks inside Pakistani territory.
From a security perspective in the Horn, many analysts now view #Eritrea as the center of gravity: Its strategic geography, control over Redsea access & alliances w neighboring peoples (#Sudan, Egypt, Tigray & Amhara) is partly why the #Trump gov is reaching out to #Asmara.
Prime minister Idris Kamal of #Sudan reached agreements w the #Eritrean pres #Afwerki on joint economic ventures. Plans for new, large-scale projects, including marine fisheries in the Red Sea, gold and oil refineries, and other investments in the minerals sector.
#Egypt’s ElSiSi revives military options against #Ethiopia as Cairo is against any unilateral moves on the Nile that threaten Sudan & Egypt. Ethiopian relations w Egypt, Sudan, #Eritrea & Somalia keep deteriorating as Addis is seen as the main destabilizer.
Fighting betw the #Taliban & #Pakistan is escalating to a new level as the Taliban killed 58 #Pakistani soldiers & Pakistan killed 200+ Taliban (affiliated) soldiers. Taliban also took 25 Pakistani army posts after Islamabad bombed Kabul. Islamabad accuses Kabul of backing TTP.
#Eritrea and #Sudan are strategic partners. They cooperate in security matters but also economic matters. For #Asmara the stability of Sudan is of the highest priority and the Sudanese gov & people appreciate it.
ENDF reinforcements pouring in from Afar into #Wollo to counter #Fano. Fano recently took control of #Gashena but still has to consolidate control. If it manages to hold, Fano will control a key road junction that threatens ENDF’s Lalibela supply lines.
Pm #Abiy’s logic is difficult to follow. He threatens to invade Eritrea & steal its port. He funds and arms Eritrean opposition & mobilizes forces. Yet #Ethiopia writes a 2nd letter to the UN & threatens to take action against #Eritrea for meddling in its internal affairs.
#Trump pressures #Hamas to accept his peace plan but its careful as hostages are its only assets. Israel threatening the destruction of #Gaza for leverage. This yr is election yr. Hamas doesnt want foreign troops in Gaza & wants to be included in a gov
Gaza City is COMPLETELY Destroyed

(Times of Gaza)