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The “Russian Hawks” and the Kremlin

Giorgio Comai @giocomai.bsky.social · 23d

And again, link to my own piece @balcanicaucaso.org in English - www.balcanicaucaso.org/eng/Areas/Ru... - and in Italian - www.balcanicaucaso.org/aree/Russia/...

Previously marginal revanchist intellectuals have been producing grandiose ideological theorisations, that are now at the core of state-sanctioned narratives legitimising Russia’s invasion of Ukraine....

The Rise of the Russian Hawks

Giorgio Comai @giocomai.bsky.social · 23d

Juliette Faure's book: doi.org/10.1017/9781... - and a recent article doi.org/10.1017/eis....

Cambridge Core - European Studies - The Rise of the Russian Hawks

doi.org

Version 1.1, published: Sept. 12, 2025.

Giorgio Comai @giocomai.bsky.social · 23d

Additional references:

updated official release on @discussdata.bsky.social, with even more ways to explore Zavtra's archive: doi.org/10.48320/EF3...

doi.org

Giorgio Comai @giocomai.bsky.social · 23d

And then, worth noticing that for the group Faure calls the "hawks", what really matters is Russia's domestic cleansing, awakening, and rejuvenation. As the "hawks" themselves clarify, it is the ongoing top-down revolution within Russia that matters most to them: "Ukraine is just a pretext".

Giorgio Comai @giocomai.bsky.social · 23d

But I also question how much does ideology really matter for understanding the contours of what a plausible negotiated solution to the ongoing war would look like. Ideology is used to legitimise the Kremlin's choices: it may shape the language used to express them, but it hardly constrains policy.

The “Russian Hawks” and the Kremlin

Giorgio Comai @giocomai.bsky.social · 23d

In my latest article - www.balcanicaucaso.org/eng/Areas/Ru... I explore how some of my own findings confirm the centrality of the ideological circles at the centre of Juliette Faure's excellent book,"The Rise of the Russian Hawks: Ideology and Politics from the Late Soviet Union to Putin’s #Russia"

Previously marginal revanchist intellectuals have been producing grandiose ideological theorisations, that are now at the core of state-sanctioned narratives legitimising Russia’s invasion of Ukraine....

Nagorno Karabakh, il fallimento dei peacekeeper russi

Giorgio Comai @giocomai.bsky.social · Aug 19

"gli accordi di pace diventano ostaggi dei mutamenti geopolitici e rischiano di degenerare in un preludio a nuovi conflitti, sfollamenti di massa e guerre prolungate."

Ora anche in italiano su @balcanicaucaso.org l'importante contributo di @olesyavart.bsky.social

OBCT @balcanicaucaso.org · Aug 19

Il fallimento della missione russa di peacekeeping nel Caucaso meridionale evidenzia la necessità di mandati chiari e forti, sorretti da ampie garanzie e allineati ai principi internazionali. Diversamente si rischia la stessa sorte della piccola regione del Nagorno Karabakh che è sparita dalle mappe

Il recente fallimento della missione russa di peacekeeping nel Caucaso meridionale evidenzia la necessità di mandati chiari e forti, sorretti da ampie garanzie e allineati ai principi internazionali.…

buff.ly

Nagorno-Karabakh and the Collapse of Russia’s Peacekeeping Mission: What Weak Mandates and Absent Guarantees Can Teach Us - Conflict and Civicness Research Blog

Giorgio Comai @giocomai.bsky.social · Aug 1

Important (and timely!) contribution by Olesya Vartanyan:
> "Nagorno-Karabakh and the Collapse of Russia’s Peacekeeping Mission: What Weak Mandates and Absent Guarantees Can Teach Us"

blogs.lse.ac.uk/crp/2025/07/...

The recent failure of Russia’s peacekeeping mission in the South Caucasus underscores the necessity of a clear and robust mandate backed by coalition guarantees and aligned with international principl...

blogs.lse.ac.uk

Giorgio Comai @giocomai.bsky.social · Jul 2

Interesting quantitative approach by Novaya Gazeta, although data are not published along with the article:
> "Novaya Europe analysed almost 40,000 protests to see how Russia’s war in Ukraine has changed civil society"
novayagazeta.eu/articles/202...
#Russia

Picking your battles. Novaya Europe analysed almost 40,000 protests to see how Russia’s war in Ukraine has changed civil society — Novaya Gazeta Europe

Why don’t Russians protest? Politicians, political scientists and sociologists have all asked the question since the war began. But while the Kremlin has a well-oiled repressive machine in place for d...

novayagazeta.eu

Giorgio Comai @giocomai.bsky.social · May 30

Why there shouldn’t be expectations about any breakthrough in the negotiations with Ukraine in Istanbul?

In his famous Odnako programme on Russia’s First Channel, Leontyev explains:
#Russia

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Giorgio Comai @giocomai.bsky.social · May 30

What are the "root causes" of the conflict with Ukraine according to Russia?

My latest structured analysis shows that in Kremlin-speech as of early 2025 they do not effectively relate to Ukraine, but rather to the world order and Russia's place in it: tadadit.xyz/posts/2025-0... #Russia

Russia and the “root causes” of the conflict – tadadit.xyz

tadadit.xyz

Giorgio Comai @giocomai.bsky.social · May 18

As Romanians flock to the polls, time to bring back my quantitative analysis showing the incredible density of Romanian polling stations in Italy:

half of Italian residents could drive to a Romanian polling station in less than 35 minutes.

codebase.giorgiocomai.eu/2019/11/26/o... #Romania 🇷🇴

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Reposted by Giorgio Comai

OBCT @balcanicaucaso.org · May 7

Nessun tipo di concessione unilaterale ucraina, men che meno territoriale, potrebbe risolvere quelle che Mosca considera le radici profonde del conflitto: ristabilire attraverso la guerra lo status della Russia sia a livello regionale che globale. Un’analisi

Perché Kyiv non può risolvere le “radici del conflitto”

Nessun tipo di concessione unilaterale ucraina, men che meno territoriale, potrebbe risolvere quelle che Mosca considera le radici profonde del conflitto: ristabilire attraverso la guerra lo status…

buff.ly

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Giorgio Comai @giocomai.bsky.social · May 7

"Accepting that no amount of plausible concessions from Kyiv would to put an end to the conflict is a necessary premise for more substantive policy debates in Europe and elsewhere."

Giorgio Comai @giocomai.bsky.social · May 7

"Western quiescence to Russia’s demands and Moscow’s neo-imperial design to control Ukraine, and indeed subsume it in the Russian cultural and political space along with Belarus, are inextricably intertwined, as one set of objectives cannot be achieved without the other."

Giorgio Comai @giocomai.bsky.social · May 7

"Ukraine, of course, remains central to Russia’s interests. But [in Russia's] vision, once Western geopolitical ambitions and weapons are removed from Ukraine, Ukraine would inevitably fall back within the Russian political and cultural space where it naturally belongs."

Giorgio Comai @giocomai.bsky.social · May 7

"If the “root causes” of the conflict lie in Russia’s relations with the West, no amount of unilateral Ukrainian concessions – least of all territorial concessions – would lead to a satisfactory outcome for Russia. Putin’s desired outcome cannot possibly stem from a decision taken in Kyiv."

Why Kyiv cannot possibly fix the ‘root causes’ of the conflict

Giorgio Comai @giocomai.bsky.social · May 7

"No amount of unilateral Ukrainian concessions would address what Russia considers the ‘root causes’ of the conflict."

My latest: www.balcanicaucaso.org/eng/Areas/Uk... #Ukraine #Russia

No amount of unilateral Ukrainian concessions would address what Russia considers the ‘root causes’ of the conflict. An analysis

Process text with Ollama, retrieve structured results, cache them locally in DuckDB.

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Reposted by Giorgio Comai

Eduard Klein @edklein.bsky.social · Mar 18

This is a really unique & rich longitudinal dataset on #corruption in #Ukraine, that allows for analyzing developments and trends over 1.5 decades! I recommend all scholars working on this topic checking this outstanding dataset 👇

Discuss Data @discussdata.bsky.social · Mar 18

#Corruption is one of the hot topics in #Ukraine. We are happy that the data of one of the most comprehensive corruption surveys is now available on Discuss Data: A merged dataset based on 8 surveys on corruption perception / experience / attitudes between 2007-2024: discuss-data.net/dataset/cf7e...

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Reposted by Giorgio Comai

tadadit.xyz @tadadit.bsky.social · Mar 18

Package: `quackingllama`. Basically, a llama that quacks like a duck (or, more technically, a package that relies on `Ollama` for interacting with LLMs, and on DuckDB for caching results). - giocomai.github.io/quackingllama/ #rstats

Process text with Ollama, store results in DuckDB.

giocomai.github.io

Analysing Russian news via Telegram, processing them with open LLMs – tadadit.xyz

Reposted by Giorgio Comai

tadadit.xyz @tadadit.bsky.social · Mar 18

New post, in which I indulge in exploring categorisation of text with open LLMs, and along the way incidentally develop an R package to facilitate relevant workflows.

Analysing Russian news via Telegram, processing them with open LLMs - tadadit.xyz/posts/2025-0...

Testing alternatives for investigating public discourse.

tadadit.xyz

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Reposted by Giorgio Comai

Bernardo Venturi @bervent.bsky.social · Dec 28

Unfortunately, they didn't.

Giorgio Comai @giocomai.bsky.social · Dec 28

Months ago, in reference to the impending crisis in Transnistria, @bervent.bsky.social and I argued that "when buying time,it's important to make sure to use it wisely."

Step 1: buy time
Step 2: use it wisely

We focused on step 2, but step 1 is of the essence
www.balcanicaucaso.org/eng/Areas/Mo...

Transnistria: when buying time, make sure to use it wisely

Russia’s gas subsidy – a key ingredient enabling Transnistria’s political economy – may remain in place for a couple more years, but its existence is based on increasingly shaky grounds. Chișinău is e...

Transnistria: when buying time, make sure to use it wisely

Giorgio Comai @giocomai.bsky.social · Dec 28

Months ago, in reference to the impending crisis in Transnistria, @bervent.bsky.social and I argued that "when buying time,it's important to make sure to use it wisely."

Step 1: buy time
Step 2: use it wisely

We focused on step 2, but step 1 is of the essence
www.balcanicaucaso.org/eng/Areas/Mo...

Russia’s gas subsidy – a key ingredient enabling Transnistria’s political economy – may remain in place for a couple more years, but its existence is based on increasingly shaky grounds. Chișinău is e...