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Grid Status @gridstatus.io · 28m

Track PJM outcomes and more on the site!

www.gridstatus.io/live/pjm

PJM Live Dashboard and Price Map | Grid Status

Real-time grid conditions and LMP price map for PJM on Grid Status

www.gridstatus.io

Grid Status @gridstatus.io · 28m

PJM’s market monitor estimates that consumers are on the hook for billions in higher capacity prices due to forecasted data center load growth alone, and bullish load forecasts without firm capacity will likely send these estimates even higher in next year’s uncapped auction.

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Grid Status @gridstatus.io · 28m

At an RTO level, large load forecasts from all LSE/LDC presentations in September anticipate nearly 85 GW of growth over the next decade, approaching 100 GW in total by 2035.

This rapid expansion will strain an already tense environment.

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Grid Status @gridstatus.io · 28m

Dominion, home to the world’s largest existing data center market, continues to lead the way with large load demand rising from ~7,200 MW today to ~24,000 MW in 2035.

While large, this is a far more gradual increase compared to DAY or PPL, whose forecasts have ballooned in just the last year.

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Grid Status @gridstatus.io · 28m

AEP has revised its 2030 forecast down significantly, from 17,890 MW last year to 9,296 MW this year.

AEP-Ohio alone accounts for over 5 GW of this reduction, largely driven by tariff changes requiring large loads to prepay for a portion of expected usage.

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Grid Status @gridstatus.io · 28m

While the RTO is bound to continue seeing load growth, these forecasts warrant skepticism, particularly when compared to other zones within PJM.

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Grid Status @gridstatus.io · 28m

In Ohio, Dayton anticipates an increase from its existing 35 MW of large load to over 6,335 MW in just 6 years, a ~18,000% jump.

PPL reports more than 15 GW of large loads by 2035 in comparison to 248 MW today, almost 5 GW more than COMED, a zone that today serves 2-3x the total demand.

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Grid Status @gridstatus.io · 28m

As PJM prepares its 2026 load outlook utility forecasts show a rapidly shifting landscape, with smaller zones predicting surging demand 🔌💡

A balancing question in play is whether large zones can continue to scale larger, or if small areas have the headroom to steal momentum in the datacenter race

large load demand growth for dominion, aep, ppl, comed, and dayton in PJM, from 2025 thorough 2035, bar chart

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Grid Status @gridstatus.io · 1d

A little teaser of our next product release: Grid Status Insights.

Insights is a real-time feed of expert commentary on energy markets and the electric grid — straight from our team of talented analysts.

If you’ve enjoyed our blogs or social posts, you’re going to love this. Stay tuned 🔌💡

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Grid Status @gridstatus.io · 3d

We’re early in the process of rolling out a new app— Nodal Analysis. DM if you’d like to test it and share feedback 🔌💡

We built it with two key upgrades:

1. A new database that runs on-demand analysis of years of data in seconds
2. An enhanced process for organizing the metadata for 75k+ locations

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Grid Status @gridstatus.io · 6d

It’s duck hunting season as California’s summer fades away and demand from batteries takes firm grasp of CAISO’s daily demand curves 🔌💡

chart showing load with and without battery charging in CAISO

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Grid Status @gridstatus.io · 21d

Track the tricks and treats of outage season with Grid Status

www.gridstatus.io/live/spp

SPP Live Dashboard and Price Map | Grid Status

Real-time grid conditions and LMP price map for SPP on Grid Status

www.gridstatus.io

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Grid Status @gridstatus.io · 21d

Ten days prior, the 6th demonstrated that high net load doesn’t have to drive grid stress. It hit 95% of peak load compared to 79% on the 16th, but the ramp was much gentler, only rising by 7 GW

outages were 4.7GW lower and temperatures milder, leading to an on-peak DART spread of -$5.56/MWh

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Grid Status @gridstatus.io · 21d

On the 16th, SPP had high net load as wind died off midday, leaving dispatchable generation to pick up 24 G of additional demand from morning trough to afternoon peak. Also tightening the stack, an additional 3.8GW of generation went on outage that morning

on-peak North Hub DART spread hit -$111MWh

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Grid Status @gridstatus.io · 21d

Net load volatility is on the rise as SPP enters shoulder season 🔌💡

In decades past, the fall shoulder season left time for autumn fun like apple picking and the pumpkin patch. Today, new metrics like net load drive markets, and they can be most volatile when outages rise and weather varies

chart of net load in spp on september 6th and 16th, much bigger swings on the 16th

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Grid Status @gridstatus.io · Sep 9

Very different load shapes, some crypto in ERCOT is also switching to be generic datacenters as well.

Some slides from this meeting

www.ercot.com/calendar/081...

In the first half of 2025 Traditional Data Centers load grew by about 5%
Most of this was observed from April 1 to May 10. (3.9%)
Current installed capacity = 6,400MW Approved to Energize (LLI) + Operational (non-LLI)

crypto, datacenter, storage load curves, all difference, crypto moves the most

ERCOT has approximately 380 storage/compute data centers.
Of those, 54 are considered Med/Large (>25MW).

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Grid Status @gridstatus.io · Sep 9

Regular demand from crypto mining in ERCOT rose from 3.8 GW to 4.4, then fell back to ~4GW this year, far lower than forecasts

We're working on some cool new features to dig in on specific grid points and better serve insights on grid events, check out www.gridstatus.io/live to stay in the loop

Home | Grid Status

National overview of the US Electrical Grid conditions. Includes data from ERCOT, CAISO, PJM, SPP, MISO, ISO-NE, and NYISO

www.gridstatus.io

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Grid Status @gridstatus.io · Sep 9

There’s more to be said about this report’s implications for long-term trends, but it’s useful in the here and now to understand how these facilities can already suppress grid-wide peak demand on hot summer days

This comes from 7 months of real-time crypto demand, published by ERCOT

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Grid Status @gridstatus.io · Sep 9

While we can only estimate the specific breakdown given the many factors that make up load forecast error, the fact that crypto curtailment can account for the entirety of the error on certain days is clear evidence of their impact on the grid.

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Grid Status @gridstatus.io · Sep 9

ERCOT load-watchers will know that many days this summer have had a strikingly flat peak load curve, driven by curtailment to avoid 4CP intervals. Less clear was just how much of the resulting forecast gap could be driven by extremely flexible crypto demand. It turns out the answer is a lot 🔌💡

On key summer days in 2025, crypto curtailment in ERCOT has met or exceeded the entire day-ahead load forecast error

From January through July, crypto mining in ERCOT grew by ~200 MW on net to ~4 GW, far lower than assumed by forecasts prior to 2025, but more than enough to drastically reshape peak load curves during the 4CP season.

graph showing this

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Grid Status @gridstatus.io · Sep 4

Check out the blog for more, and when you're done reading, try out the new weather radar layer on our nodal price map!

www.gridstatus.io/map

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Grid Status @gridstatus.io · Sep 4

Today, thunderstorm alerts can be a way for traders to make big swings, but as a real-time only stochastic event that interacts with a mix of deterministic and stochastic factors to create market outcomes, the final result can vary
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congestion rent attributable to TSAs over the last 11 years

big price swings on the source and sink sides of a july 1st, 2025 TSA

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Grid Status @gridstatus.io · Sep 4

the 1977 blackout was a critical moment in NYC history, leading to deaths, arson, and new operational rules, like thunderstorm alerts /2

generators failing to meet claimed capability during the 1977 blackout and system frequency

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Grid Status @gridstatus.io · Sep 4

New blog! This time on Thunderstorm Alerts in NYISO 🔌💡

TSAs are called when enough lightning strikes the Hudson Valley area in a short amount of time. This triggers line limits on the 345kV system flowing into NYC, to avoid conditions 1977 blackout conditions

blog.gridstatus.io/breaking-dow... /1

When Thunder Roars- Breaking Down NYISO’s Thunderstorm Alerts

NYISO's Thunderstorm Alerts have a grim origin, but also represent a unique trading opportunity. We dig into the history, impacts, and changes of this weather-induced market mechanism.

blog.gridstatus.io

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Grid Status @gridstatus.io · Aug 26

The forecast appeared to heavily rely on those onshore wind speeds, and failed to take into account the consistent output from Erin's far flung winds

This is the Goldilocks zone for offshore wind, fast enough for nearly maxed out generation, not so fast as to cause systems-protection shutdowns

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